Ready or not - Here we come!

[Fintilgin]

It seems like the German AI is coded to launch an attack on the Soviet Union in the spring/summer of 1941 regardless of if they are prepared or in position for such an attack.

I decided to play as the allies, leaving everyone under AI control until Germany attacked them, and then taking control. I put the German AI on very easy to give them a big production boost.

I held out as Poland until January 1940. I also held out as France, around Nantes until around March of 1941.

Germany declared war on the Soviet Union a few months later, and I took control of the Soviets. I'm not sure what they had been up to. The bulk of the Soviet army was planted around Moscow, the Urals, and the Caucasus area. Except for a scattering of single units the frontier with Germany was almost entirely ungarrisoned.

I had a brief moment of panic until I realized the Germans were in no position to attack. The bulk of their army was still in France. In fact it was two or three turns before a handful of lone German units even crossed my borders. It was a couple months before the German were attacking in force. By then I'd reoriented my army and purchased mountains of new units. Germany ended up taking two or three cities on the border before I stalemated them and began building up my army in strength.

If they'd been in position to take advantage of the Soviet's not being in position they would have been deep in the country before I could have put together a defense. But the German apparently just had a basic garrison in Poland when they declared war!

Perhaps the AI should attempt to analyze if an attack in the Summer of 1941 is prudent. Do they have enough forces in place? If not perhaps they should hold off until Summer 1942.

[Anraz]

I have added it to list of things to check. Thanks for the report.

[gwgardner]

I did a similar hands-off test a couple of weeks ago, had quite a bit better results in terms of German prep. Difference perhaps due to the delay in taking France in your example?

[Mike Parker]

The result of Poland holding out till Jan 40 is the problem I think.  Although I will have to try playing Poland against a German AI and see what happens.  That in itself will seriously retard the AI I would think.
 
Although those results are irrelevant the original posters point is quite valid, if France lasts till Mar '41 German should not begin Barbarossa Apr or May '41 I would think.