1922 Aces8 (J) vs. Rysyonok (A): Statistics and analysis

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Rysyonok
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1922 Aces8 (J) vs. Rysyonok (A): Statistics and analysis

Post by Rysyonok »

This thread is a supplement to Ace8's AAR. I will use it to analyze this campaign from the theatre to unit level. Questions, requests, suggestions, comments, and debates are welcome :)
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Rysyonok
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USN BB experience growth (5/31/22 - 10/28/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

USN BB experience growth (5/31/22 - 10/28/22)

It is always amazing how no two ships gain like experience in WPO. One may have been on a non-stop combat patrol; another took a torpedo and spent three months in drydock. One scored several hits on an enemy vessel; another, led by a much less skilled captain, stayed back in battle.

Name: current daytime / estimated starting daytime / current nighttime / starting nighttime.

USS Arizona: 72 / 68 / 55 / 20
USS Connecticut: 88 / 65 / 46 / 20
USS Georgia: 66* / 71 / 56 / 20
*must have rolled a very low number on the starting daytime value - experience can't decrease
USS Idaho: 67 / 66 / 29 / 20
USS Illinois: 72 / 72 / 58 / 20
USS Mississippi: 72 / 66 / 57 / 20
USS Monandock: 68 / 65 / 41 / 37
USS Nebraska: 74 / 66 / 55 / 20
USS Nevada: 62 / 62 / 39 / 20
USS New Mexico: 71 / 73 / 56 / 20
*must have rolled a very low number on the starting daytime value - experience can't decrease
USS New York: 67 / 66 / 55 / 20
USS Oregon: 66* / 72 / 57 / 20
*must have rolled a very low number on the starting daytime value - experience can't decrease
USS Pennsylvania: 74 / 74 / 58 / 20
USS Rhode Island: 68 / 66 / 55 / 20
USS Tennesee: 70 / 66 / 54 / 20
USS Texas: 99 / 74 / 55 / 20

Overall, it's clear that the main gain was due to basic training, as nighttime experience climbed up to 55 which is the training maximum for a surface combat vessel. I'm impressed with USS Texas - I did notice that it had some lucky shots downing IJN Katori and IJN Kashima, but I did not pay much attention to them back then. I guess I should have :)

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Sunk ships (5/31/22 - 10/28/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

This has been a very bloody game from the beginning; in just 5 months, 183 ships have been sunk.

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Here is the rundown of some ships sunk to day listed by VPs. Beyond that there are about 88 destroyers, almost 20 submarines, and smaller vessels.

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Main armament comparison (11/6/22):

Post by Rysyonok »

(Edit: fixed USN Oregon's guns to proper caliber)

Here's the rundown on how many high caliber guns does each fleet have at the moment:

IJN

16" guns - 26

10 Tosa
8 Nagato
8 Mutsu

14" guns - 48

12 Ise
12 Hyuga
12 Fuso
12 Yamashiro

12" guns - 68

12 Settsu
8 Kongo
8 Hiei
8 Kirishima
4 Aki
4 Satsuma
4 Ibuki
4 Mikasa
4 Hizen
4 Iwami
4 Shikishima
4 Fuji

Total number of high-caliber barrels: 142, just over 7 per ship. 24 barrels have been sunk to date.

USN

14" guns - 102

12 Arizona
12 Pennsylvania
12 Tennesee
12 New Mexico
12 Mississippi
12 Idaho
10 Nevada
10 New York
10 Texas

13" guns - 8

4 Illinois
4 Oregon

12" guns - 16

4 Connecticut
4 Georgia
4 Rhode Island
4 Nebraska

Total number of high-caliber barrels: 126, just over 8 per ship. 22 barrels have been sunk to date.

Thus while IJN has heavier firepower at the moment, USN's firepower is better concentrated. IJN may be forced to split its 16" ships to maintain fire superiority in more than one location.
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Japanese Island Strategy (11/11/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

As USN prepares for its January infusion of transports and ground troops, there is an important question to answer: is Japanese Navy going to make a stand on each island in the Pacific or is it rather going to dig in closer to homeland? One way to answer that is to examine port and airfield construction progress.

Interestingly enough, there is little to no visible progress. All of the islands south and east of mainland Japan are no more developed than they have been in May 1922. There are still only 5 airfields - Tinian, Saipan, Pagan, Truk, plus captured Guam, all 5 of the same size as at the start. There are 7 major ports - Jaluit, Kwajalein, Eniwetok, Truk, Ulithi, Saipan, and Palau, again, all 7 of the same size.

This leads me to believe that either every single base force of IJA is preparing nothing but fortifications, or there is no construction work in progress at all, in the name of saving supplies. Thus I need to decide whether it is in the best interests of USN to quickly capture outlying Japanese islands, or, instead, bypass them as being of little value.
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Sunk IJN submarines (11/18/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

This game has been particularly brutal on the Japanese submarine fleet; 18 have been sunk to date. That only leaves IJN with not that much more:

- ## 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17 - short-range subs only useful in Taiwan area
- # 14, 19, 20, 32 - medium-range submarines that I expect IJN to use in blockading the three brand new USN bases in Central Pacific
- #25, 28, 29, 30, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 42, 46, 47, 57, 58, 62 - long-range submarines that might visit Midway or even Pearl Harbor, if supported by oilers
- #73 that just entered service and still needs a month of training

With the strongest ex-German submarines knocked out of the game - IJN is down to just O2, O3, O4, and O7, and only one of those, O4, is a minelayer, it may be safe to say that upcoming January 1923 ASW upgrade may be cancelled for some, if not all destroyers as unnecessary. In addition, with no Japanese submarine sightings east of Pearl Harbor, it is no longer mandatory to escort troopships in that area.

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US divisions supply status (11/27/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

In the beginning most of US divisions start understaffed, and it's strongly advised to let them fill up prior to throwing them in battle. Or to at least prioritize. Still, this is a very long process - even after 6 months I am running short on some units:

US division: shortage of infantry squads / shortage of 37mm guns / shortage of light tanks

1st Division: 0 / 24 / 14
2nd Division: 0 / 24 / 15
3rd Division: 0 / 13 / 0
1st Cavalry Division: N/A / 6 / 1
Hawaiian Division : No data due to being split in three regiments
2nd Marine Division: No data due to being split in two regiments
15th Regiment: 0 / N/A0 / N/A
31st Regiment: 0 / 0 / N/A
35th Regiment: 0 / 12 / N/A
159th Regiment: 35 / 0 / N/A
184th Regiment: 39 / 2 / N/A
298th Regiment: 2 / 0 / N/A
299th Regiment: 15 / 3 / N/A

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Lost aircraft (12/9/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

Lost aircraft (12/9/22)

As both sides are training their pilots for inevitable air-to-air combat to come in 1923, it is interesting to see how aircraft are getting lost at the moment:

Lost on the ground: 39 - this early in the game battleships aren't afraid of planes, for all they have to do is blast them to pieces at night
Operations: 17 - can't train them without losing a few
Flak: 10 - anti-aircraft weaponry is still young, but it's still unsafe to fly too low

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North Luzon (12/9/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

Japanese forces are retreating in Luzon to a single stronghold of Tuguegarao. It is a mountaineous, river area, which is going to make it tough to attack. A good question is, should American forces attack it, or rather block it off and move on, forcing enemy to starve? None of the three ports still held by IJA are 3+, which severely impedes their resupply ability.

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Case Study: Intercepting Anyo Maru convoy (12/13/22)

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Case Study: Intercepting Anyo Maru convoy (12/13/22)



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Repair issues (12/15/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

USN has had quite a difficult time waging war across the entire Pacific thus far; damaged vessels often had to travel all the way back to California for repairs. Not only does that take time, but vessels accrue additional damage on the way back due to sheer distance involved. Currently all 6 repair yards are backlogged for 2-3 weeks:

- an average USN battleship has 9.9 points of damage, which will take over 2 months to repair per ship
- 17 submarines are on the verge of internal fires breaking out
- there is a major upgrade coming down in 2 weeks which would require every AP, AK, TK, and potentially DD and DM to spend some time in dockyards

That is why my conversion ARs - repair vessels - would be very welcome on the front lines. I just wish I had converted more of them.

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The starvation of Peking (12/18/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

As Japanese Army encircles Peking, there is an interesting question at hand: can IJA achieve victory by simply denying supply flow to the city?

Most Chinese supply comes from the Shanghai - Nanking zone, and, following capture of Tientsin by the Japanese, it is now cut off. I estimate that starvation will start in March.

Do I want to save the 3 corps in Peking? Or rather enjoy the time their demise will buy me?

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USN BB experience growth (10/28/22 - 12/30/22)

Post by Rysyonok »

Not too many changes - experience is tough to increase past the class (surface combat vessel) max of 55. Especially if you've been drydocked for a long time :)

Name: current daytime / increase since 10/28 / current nighttime / increase since 10/28.

USS Arizona: 78 / +6 / 55 / -
USS Connecticut: 88 / - / 47 / +1
USS Georgia: 66 / - / 56 / -
USS Idaho: 67 / - / 29 / -
USS Illinois: 72 / - / 58 / -
USS Mississippi: 75 / +3 / 57 / -6*
*Must be a previous typo correction - experience shouldn't decrease on a ship.
USS Monandock: 68 / - / 54 / +13
USS Nebraska: 76 / +2 / 56 / +1
USS Nevada: 62 / - / 39 / -
USS New Mexico: 71 / - / 56 / -
**Very peculiar: no change even though the ship has been afloat and in combat the last 2 months.
USS New York: 78 / +11 / 56 / +1
***Need to research who this one sank - this is a very nice increase!
USS Oregon: 66 / - / 57 / -
USS Pennsylvania: 77 / +3 / 58 / -
USS Rhode Island: 68 / - / 55 / -
USS Tennesee: 70 / - / 55 / +1
USS Texas: 99 / - / 55 / -


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Protecting USN DDs from IJN CLs

Post by Rysyonok »

One of the pressing issues at hand is how to protect American destroyers without slowing them down. As Japanese Navy loses more and more destroyers of its own, it is expected that Japanese fast light cruises of Tenryu, Kitakami, and Nagara classes will be more visible. They are fast enough to chase my destroyers after port and convoy raids (32-36 knots versus 35 on Clemson, Wickes-class destroyers) and they have better armament:

14cm/50 3YT IJN gun: / USN DD 4"-5" guns:
Range: 22,000 yards / 16,000
Accuracy: 60% / 85%
Effect: 82lbs of explosives per hit / 33-50lbs
Penetration: 60mm of armor / 40-50mm

This means that not only can Japanese ships open fire from further away, they can do much more damage - American shells would penetrate decks only, not belts or towers. The only hope for American destroyers would be to disable unarmored 6" guns of IJN light cruises.

I am working on a solution that would not require to wait until May 1923 for USN Omaha and Cincinatti, the first fast American cruisers.
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Chinese Army Experience (5/31/22 - 1/2/23)

Post by Rysyonok »

It appears that the more support a unit has, the better it does on experience and morale. And, of course, planning for future objectives helps too.

Chinese unit: Experience / Morale 5/31/22: / Experience / Morale 1/2/23:
I Corps: 40 / 40 / 43 / 35
II Corps: 35 / 35 / 43 / 79
III Corps: 30 / 35 / 42 / 40
IV Corps: 35 / 35 / 44 / 27
V Corps: 40 / 40 / 44 / 47
VI Corps: 30 / 35 / 44 / 42
VII Corps: 35 / 35 / 44 / 75
VIII Corps: 35 / 35 / 44 / 79
IX Corps: 45 / 45 / 45 / 45
X Corps: 35 / 35 / 43 / 34
XI Corps: 40 / 40 / 57 / 77
XII Corps: 30 / 30 / 56 / 79
XIII Corps: 35 / 35 / 43 / 32
XIV Corps: 30 / 35 / 43 / 31
XV Corps: 60 / 60 / 62 / 54
XVI Corps: 45 / 50 / 46 / 70 (data averaged due to unit being split)
XVII Corps: 45 / 45 / 65 / 56
XVIII Corps: 60 / 60 / 60 / 44
XIX Corps: 55 / 60 / 55 / 49
XX Corps: 55 / 60 / 55 / 47
XXI Corps: 65 / 65 / 65 / 68
XXII Corps: 60 / 60 / 60 / 57
XXIII Corps: 55 / 55 / 55 / 61
XXIV Corps: 55 / 55 / 55 / 56
XXV Corps: 55 / 55 / 55 / 53
XXVI Corps: 40 / 40 / 44 / 40
XXVII Corps: 50 / 50 / 50 / 39
XXVIII Corps: 45 / 45 / 45 / 65
XXIX Corps: 50 / 50 / 50 / 40
XXX Corps: 45 / 45 / 45 / 47
I Cavalry Corps: 45 / 50 / 62 / 42
Manchuria Corps: 40 / 40 / 44 / 35
1st Division: 35 / 35 / 44 / 29
2nd Division: 35 / 35 / 42 / 24
3rd Division: 40 / 40 / 64 / 39

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RE: Protecting USN DDs from IJN CLs

Post by Connfire »

I have a healthy respect for these IJN CL classes. They are perfect DD hunters, and they can also fire a nasty spread of torpedoes which can ruin a BB or CA's day.

Earlier this year in my long game vs. the computer, for about a 2-week game period in early 1924 the AI got in the habit of sending groups of these things singley or in pairs against my heavy surface TFs - at the same time. It seemed a futile effort at first, not something I would have done. But I can't argue with the results - my TFs wasted a lot of ammo as they made individual hit and run attacks, often in the same turn. I eventually got most of them, but before that they sank a CA and send 3-4 BBs to the yards!
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VP Status (1/5/23)

Post by Rysyonok »

VP Status (1/5/23)

Here's the current victory point breakdown:

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The deadliest weapon

Post by Rysyonok »

What has been the deadliest weapon in this game so far?

Those who look at dozens of sank Japanese subs and guess Mk 4 Depth Charge, are wrong.

It's the Japanese 35cm/45 41YT gun. Those 14" monsters, found on only 8 ships in the entire game, are responsible for 33 confirmed Allied losses.

Only one of those eight killers has been brought to justice so far - IJN Haruna.

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DT-2 Torpedo Bombers

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DT-2 Torpedo Bombers

The first of 4 torpedo squadrons planned for 1923 - VT-2 - joined Allied ranks. US Navy will have an 11-month head start over IJN when it comes to torpedo bombers. Hopefully, it will use that time wisely.

Torpedoes of DT-2 are only 2/3 as strong as those of a typical destroyer; it will take at least 3 actual non-dud hits to bring down a battleship.

I wonder what would be the impact of USN Langley being retrofitted with 3 of those squadrons - 33 torpedo bombers?...


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Heavy armament comparison (1/14/23)

Post by Rysyonok »

Here's the rundown on how many high caliber guns does each fleet have at the moment:

IJN

16" guns - 36

10 Tosa
10 Kaga
8 Nagato
8 Mutsu

14" guns - 48

12 Ise
12 Hyuga
12 Fuso
12 Yamashiro

12" guns - 68

12 Settsu
8 Kongo
8 Hiei
8 Kirishima
4 Aki
4 Satsuma
4 Ibuki
4 Mikasa
4 Hizen
4 Iwami
4 Shikishima
4 Fuji

10" guns - 37

12 Aki
12 Satsuma
4 Okinoshima
4 Mishima
4 Suwo
1 Kasuga


Total number of high-caliber barrels: 189.

USN

14" guns - 102

12 Arizona
12 Pennsylvania
12 Tennesee
12 New Mexico
12 Mississippi
12 Idaho
10 Nevada
10 New York
10 Texas

13" guns - 8

4 Illinois
4 Oregon

12" guns - 20

4 Connecticut
4 Georgia
4 Rhode Island
4 Nebraska
4 Minnesota

10" guns - 16

4 Monandock
4 Charlotte
4 Missoula
4 Seattle

Total number of high-caliber barrels: 146.

Once 10" guns are added into equation, IJN overpowers USN 4:3. But Allies shall not despair, for in only 8 months both sides achieve parity as Maryland, Arkansas, Wyoming, Florida, and Utah arrive.
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