A Blizzard Alternative Test?

[anthonykevinluke]

Greetings,

I have been playing the game since release and have numerous on-going games from both sides at the moment, albeit only against the AI at this stage. I am considering an experiment that is wholly un-historical and very gamey; but, interested to see the results from a 'clinical' point of view. The test would involve two possible Courses of Action (COA). COA 1 - a complete withdrawal of the Axis forces from Russia to the X54/72 line over the mud and snow turns of 1941, in order to avoid the horrendous losses (and experience loss of the disabled troops) caused by the Blizzard. COA 2 - a modified version of COA 1 withdrawing all but a thin screen of Regts (i.e. getting about 60 -75% of the axis Divisions behind this line). This thin screen would impose minimal delay but force the Soviets to attack, thereby using MP's.

Assumptions:

- the cities the Sov retakes are already trashed so he will get minimal manpower from them anyway, as it is already destroyed or evacuated (not that that seems to be an issue for the Soviet in any game I've played yet!)
- yes he can get back the resources, but perhaps so can the Axis with a healthy army in 1942!
- I can normally take up to a line (including) Leningrad, Vorishally Vochak (sp?), Rhez, Vyzam, Bryansk, Orel, Kursk, Kharkhov, Stalino group, and sometime Vorshilov; though not including Sevastopol. The soviet will advance between two and three hex's a turn thus regaining about 30 -50% of the territory I took in 41, pending COA used of course.
- He will suffer attrition advancing and perhaps outstrip his supply lines significantly.
- His units will gain no experience and gain very few Guard units. COA 2 would obviously negate some of this effect.

Therefore, the end result may be: an intact, rested, high experience Axis Army, with a start line about 30 -50% better off than 1941 (allowing for Soviet advance and time to move Axis units back to the front) vs. a relatively inexperienced Soviet force that may have suffered reasonable attrition and have stretched supply lines? The Sov gain in manpower and resources would be negligible I think.

Whilst waiting for the next patch to fix the dreaded TOE loss of experience disaster I may give this a go and let you know what happens, just for interest sakes. Unless there is someone out there who has already done it?

Note - Leningrad would not be abandoned as the Finnish forces and Germans can hold it with as ease as well as suitable jumping off points for a Spring 42 offensive.

Please note, this is just a "what if" test ......... ! I just want to see what happens ..... ?


Regards

[Emx77]

It would be interesting to find out results of both COA tests.

[Tarhunnas]

Interesting idea! I look forward to hearing about the results.

[Arstavidios]

I'm currently playing a campaign against the AI where I retreated the whole axis forces to their start lines except for Odessa and a few border cities in the south.
The AI was unbalanced and bled white in the following AXIS offensive which is continuing on a slow but steady path.

In February 1943 I've taken Moscow, isolated Lenigrad. I'm in front of Kharkov. Losses have been 2.5m axis against 11m soviet. The soviets are down to about 5.5m men while the Axis forces have a lot of experience and high morale, including axis allies. I think I've broken the back of the red army now.  They went on the offensive in the winter of 1942-1943 and that did not help as they suffer very heavy losses for little results.  Many axis infantry divisions are quite depleted nonetheless as  replacements are few, but overall the army is still in good shape.

[horza66]

Back in the FITE boardgame days I remember being struck by a couple of extreme suggestions from one of our more committed and successful wargamers

a) The Soviets should pull back behind the Urals in '41 and not poke their heads out until late '42. This is known as the Sir Robin defence here, but I don't think anyone has taken it to that extreme (and can't really as I understand there's a sudden death condition for that large a voluntary loss of VPs). However I believe it was implied a delaying action at the border would be necessary to evacuate all the factories, so it may look more like the checkerboard initially.

b) The Germans should pull back to Prussia/Poland in Oct '41, and repeat Barbarossa in '42, only in May not June.

His essential point is that knowing in advance the penalties you will operate under (lack of winterization for the Axis, lack of operational readiness for the Soviets) the only sensible thing to do is avoid operating under those penalties. It is of course gamey in the extreme, but discussing the extremes can take the discussion forward.

I'd suggest that the only solution is to introduce a different kind of Fog of War. The Soviets did not know in advance that the Germans had no Winter equipment. The Germans did not realise the full scale and depth of the Soviet war machine. At campaign start you need a choice for each side, loosely based on historical decisions.

For the Axis it's a fairly simple sliding scale between Prepare For A Long War (much reduced initial supply throughput, troops winterized) through to Just Kick In The Door (and the whole Rotten Regime will collapse - the default).

For the Soviets it can be based on recognising the impact of the Purges, a sliding scale between We Can Only Support A Small Professional Army (much reduced initial armament production, higher base troop quality, earlier access to Corps structures) and The Army Must Cope (the default). This could incorporate We Can Trust Our German Friends (the default) and The Fascists Will Turn East (lower surprise turn penalties, lower resources/production available due to lack of trade 39-41).

Going into a PBEM the choices made by each side should not be immediately obvious to each other. The Soviets will not know just how badly the Germans will perform in the winter, and cannot preserve their strength in the hopes of a great counter-offensive that might never happen. The Germans do not know whether they need to target manpower or resources, nor how quickly the Soviet army performance will improve.

There's an additional advantage to this, in that in can supplement the AI, and allow common what-ifs to be explored. A German player could choose to give up his surprise turn advantage instead of handing the AI a lot of bonus modifiers. A Soviet player could let German AI have a winterized army. Extending it further, there's a common argument about the significance of Lend-Lease - a PBEM game could be enlivened by the option to remove it and see how the Soviet could survive without it, and it could make resisting the German AI a really significant endeavour.

Anyway, I realise I'm painting castles in the sky here, but possibly these are things a modder could consider.

[2ndACR]

I would like to be able to spend AP's on equipping my div with winter gear for say 16AP's. Only if the unit has been stationary for say 3 turns. Then I could cherry pick my units to get it, like the ones outside the town.

3 turns stationary, would prevent the German from attacking and advancing with the knowledge he can equip troops for winter at the last minute.

[cookie monster]

Maybe a Winter Buildup button [:D]

Destroys trucks and rail cap for the turn

Not for the feinthearted!

[2ndACR]

Nah, not that. I lose enough trucks as it is.

But I have no problem with rewarding proper planning and preparation.

[gids]

tbh with the current blizzard options every game i play now ill prob retreat 2 turns before start like 20 hexes back ,its easiest thing to do,simply because theres no option of fighting ,the germans in the game are babies with lollies in their hands at the start of blizzard which is kinda bollocks to me tbh,i dont care for historical and so on but that blizzard is insanely overpowered,and i cant believe that the germans totally forgot how to use a mortar gun or AT stuff ,i can live with the fact all your motorized and panzers are rendered usseles but not that inf div arent able to even attack a TIny little bit to hel out here and there and slow down progress ,if you have a normal human opponenet with a bit of brains youre back to your border in almost no time ..... is that the meaning? i think not

[karonagames]

Historically AGN retreated 30-60 miles (3-6hexes), AGC 10-12 and AGS (3-6). there are 13 Turns of Blizzard, so by Maintaining a solid line with reserves behind the line to prevent cavalry breaking though you can restrict the SU advance to 1 hex per turn, even if they could attack all across the front, which they can't. If a unit routs, fill the gap with a reserve unit, and rotate unready units back to railheads where they refit and recover quickly.. After 13 turns of maintaining a solid line, you may have retreated a maximum of 13 hexes, but you have 3 turns of snow in which the axis regain a lot of strength and can counter attack to regain lost ground.

Check out the field marshal Noob AAR to see some techniques on surviving and counter attacking.

All I did was prevent gaps and breaks in the line while retreating in a controlled manner. I also managed to keep the panzers in winter quarters so they were strong enough to mount a major counter attack in the 3 turns of snow.

[gids]

:p il do my best but atm the only option seems to be to hog al my units back to the start zone zo they dont get the blizz stuff minus like enough divisons to have 4 times stalingrad disaster

[MrLongleg]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

Historically AGN retreated 30-60 miles (3-6hexes), AGC 10-12 and AGS (3-6). there are 13 Turns of Blizzard, so by Maintaining a solid line with reserves behind the line to prevent cavalry breaking though you can restrict the SU advance to 1 hex per turn, even if they could attack all across the front, which they can't. If a unit routs, fill the gap with a reserve unit, and rotate unready units back to railheads where they refit and recover quickly.. After 13 turns of maintaining a solid line, you may have retreated a maximum of 13 hexes, but you have 3 turns of snow in which the axis regain a lot of strength and can counter attack to regain lost ground.

Check out the field marshal Noob AAR to see some techniques on surviving and counter attacking.

All I did was prevent gaps and breaks in the line while retreating in a controlled manner. I also managed to keep the panzers in winter quarters so they were strong enough to mount a major counter attack in the 3 turns of snow.

How can you keep a solid line without the Panzer Groups and still have enough units to form reserves. In my game there were simply not enough units for that...

[2ndACR]

It is hard. Very hard. But better have a short front.

[abulbulian]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

Historically AGN retreated 30-60 miles (3-6hexes), AGC 10-12 and AGS (3-6). there are 13 Turns of Blizzard, so by Maintaining a solid line with reserves behind the line to prevent cavalry breaking though you can restrict the SU advance to 1 hex per turn, even if they could attack all across the front, which they can't. If a unit routs, fill the gap with a reserve unit, and rotate unready units back to railheads where they refit and recover quickly.. After 13 turns of maintaining a solid line, you may have retreated a maximum of 13 hexes, but you have 3 turns of snow in which the axis regain a lot of strength and can counter attack to regain lost ground.

Check out the field marshal Noob AAR to see some techniques on surviving and counter attacking.

All I did was prevent gaps and breaks in the line while retreating in a controlled manner. I also managed to keep the panzers in winter quarters so they were strong enough to mount a major counter attack in the 3 turns of snow.

ut, interested to see the results from a 'clinical' point of view. The test would involve two possible Courses of Action (COA). COA 1 - a complete withdrawal of the Axis forces from Russia to the X54/72 line over the mud and snow turns of 1941, in order to avoid the horrendous losses (and experience loss of the disabled troops) caused by the Blizzard. COA 2 - a modified version of COA 1 withdrawing all but a thin screen of Regts (i.e. getting about 60 -75% of the axis Divisions behind this line). This thin screen would impose minimal delay but force the Soviets to attack, thereby using MP's.

I don't like to see the term 'Historically' thrown out in a game like this when it deals with strategic level decisions. That seems to impose certain constraints on a player's ability to avoid disasters that were suffered by a faction. I consider the winter of 41-42 as one of these disasters for the axis.

Yes, historically the German forces eventually started retreating that winter 41-42. Do people fully understand why the German forces had to retreat? It's more than just about winter clothes and anti-freeze. The large scale operations such as Typhoon left a large part of the German forces fatigued, lacking supplies and decent supply lines, with low strength in men and equipment, as well as exposed positions. So when the very unexpected sov counter attacks of early Dec did come, these German units were in no condition to hold the lines.

For me, can't speak about others games, I did the opposite and consolidated my lines in Oct and had almost no attacks after Oct 41. My units were not depleted (only 400k loses by end Nov), not tired, WERE entrenched (fort 3 in some hexes), high exp, and high moral. But to my astonishment this meant nothing in the WitE mechanics and my units were pushed back in most places by sov attacks on turn 1 blizzard. It was an immediate drop of CV value to 1-2 for most of my units on that first turn. I completely and utterly disagree with this modeling and my logic is backed up by all leading historians that have research those battles in winter 41-42 and done the analysis as to why they were unable to initially fight off these sov attacks. Keep in mind that the Germans did finally stabilize the lines as they retreat back towards better supply lines. It was still very cold and units still didn't have all their winter gear. So why were they finally able to hold. A few reasons, but none of these are in WitE. Sure attrition levels might diminish a bit in Jab/Feb? But in my game I didn't see anything in the mechanics allow my units to start stabilizing the line in later blizzard turns.

The winter clothing is a interesting point too. It's not like the Germans had never faced a winter or didn't know how to dress troops to fight in these conditions. It was the priorities to send supplies/ammo/fuel to the front in order to execute these late 41 operations that took priority over and sort of winter prep stuff. Hitler felt like the war would be over before winter would matter with the last pushes and also felt winter prep items would send the wrong message to troops about the fighting not ending soon. All madness as we now know. So just as I don't expect a sov player to keep units in positions to be pocketed in larges numbers as was HISTORICAL, why should the axis player be penalized with the insane blizzard rules if they don't follow the same path that lead to the disasters of winter 41-42? Seems like being hypocritical?

[karonagames]

If you take a straight line along the Hexrow from Pushkin to Rostov you have 86 hexes, allow some deviation to get behind rivers and in woods you will have between 90 and 100 hexes. By turn 25 you have 129 German infantry divisions, so you have 29-39 divisions not needed to man the front line that can act as reserves and/or diggers, but I use them for my linebackers, so I can cover the whole front in some situations, and this also means panzers are not needed for front line duty and can garrison citys and not suffer blizzard attrition.

The problem in most AARs to date is that the Axis are not getting close to this line and are therefore having to defend a longer line, but by setting the objective line for 1941 as the Puskin-Rostov line, you are also getting to the same manpower centres the Axis got to historically.

[gids]

thank god im not alone in this thinking,i dont trash this game whatsover it is 1 of the best wargames in al i have played but that blizzard mechanics needs some solution .like you said yes the germans retreated ,but what im doing now for next blizzard turn is more like an exodus back to germany,and i do know the germans had winterclothes in depots storaged along the way hitler only refused to give them out because it showed no confidence.I do think some weeks later they started to give them out so im sure the CV of german combat units should rise gradually or some other solution to show this.

[2ndACR]

Wish I could get that far. Try as I might, just never happens. Against a human anyway.

[gids]

im stubborn and hate giving up,getting close to it though,but i took the game over and promised to end it ,although i fear it will be much sooner then expected already he has guard divisions i cant stop with an entire army :p,and whats up with those cav divisions .......a german infantry with guns mortars and houwitzers that cant blast some inf on horses? not even try to understand it

[karonagames]

Against the AI you can change the settings to easy, and this pretty much stops the soviet attacks dead, if that doesn't work you can adjust the setting even further if you want to.

Against a human, all I can say is that I did get to the line (and beyond) I did have enough reserves to have a full linebacker defence, and since that test the blizzard rules have been relaxed even more.

I play to the rules as written in the manual and I can't see anything that says I get a benefit from being entrenched, so I base my plans on knowing entrenchments won't help me, but being in towns and cities does give some protection so I do try to get maximum benefit from that rule.

[gids]

i know anorak but i dont want that ,because it wasnt easy for the germans ,my point is only that this is way overpowered .German combat units with a CV of 0.....comon this is not the french grand armee were talking about .A small higher CV upgrade would balance it a bit so that even a human russian player would be a bit more carefull with his breakthroughs and cutt offs,the guy im playing against goes all out and i mean seriously if this was for real i dont even understand how the germans didnt loose in the winter of 41 42 .