Random Weather 1.03 Beta 6

[Cad908]

Here is another extreme outlier with weather zones. This is from April and May 1943

All weather zones were mud for 8 consecutive turns. I was scratching my head as I went, and here are the probabilities:

From the manual 22.2.2 pages 287 through 288.

Zone modifiers, Europe = 0; South Soviet = +1; Central Soviet = +2; North Soviet = +4

For April, chance of mud per zone:
Europe: Mud (9) Clear (2) so mud 9 of 11
South Soviet: Mud (9) Snow (1) Clear (1) so mud 9 of 11
Central Soviet: Mud (9) Snow (2) so mud 9 of 11
North Soviet: Mud (7) Snow (2) Blizzard (2) so mud 7 of 11

All four zones Mud during a turn in April: 9/11 * 9/11 * 9/11 * 7/11 = 34.85% or 2.9 to 1 (Reasonable)
All four zones Mud during April for four consecutive turns = .3485 ^ 4 = 1.48% or 68 to 1
(Possible, but very unlikely)

For May, chance of mud per zone:
Europe: Mud (6) Clear (5) so mud 6 of 11
South Soviet: Mud (7) Clear (4) so mud 7 of 11
Central Soviet: Mud (8) Clear (3) so mud 8 of 11
North Soviet: Mud (8) Clear (1) Snow (2) of mud 8 of 11

All four zones Mud during a turn in May: 6/11 * 7/11 * 8/11 * 8/11 = 18.36% or 5.4 to 1 (Still Possible)
All four zones Mud for four consecutive turns = .1836 ^4 = 0.11% of 880 to 1 (less likely)

Now four zones Mud for four consecutive turns in April and four consecutive turns in May

.3485 ^4 * .1836 ^ 4 = 0.00% or 59,662 to 1

Either, the chart in the manual has been changed or the code is off.

Thanks