Here at the end of all things... (Jap Armaggedon vs Nemo)

[Hortlund]

So, after our last game was botched, we decided to start a new one. This time with me as Japan.

Things are looking omnious, in our mail-conversation Nemo is talking about how fun it will be to play the superior side and how he has never played the superior side in an AAR for several years. I feel rather like a deer caught in headlights.

Oh, well, ours is not to reason why, and all that.

First order of business is to decide what the overall objective is for Japan in this scenario. I believe this is the most important thing to start with. What do I want to achieve? After having set up those objectives, I can then start working out a defensive strategy.


What is the overall objective for Japan?
(i.e what constitutes a victory?)

I believe the object of the game is to avoid defeat for as long as possible. The maximum length of the game is 1,5 years of game-time. Nemo expects a quick victory, and he wants to do it as painful for me as possible. On that basis I have set up the following objectives for me.

1. Survive into 1946 and hold Tokyo.

2. Survive into mid-1946 and hold Tokyo.

3. Survive until game-end and hold Tokyo.

Those three alternatives represents what I will consider a draw, a marginal, and a strategic victory. And that is the standard I will judge the game results against. Losing Tokyo would be super-embarrassing, and a huge victory for Nemo. Im not sure if any player has ever taken/lost Tokyo. So, that is a priority. Having sorted that, all that remains is time really.


What is needed to achieve the objectives?

So, after deciding what the overall objective is, what is required from my defensive stragegy? The threat comes in two flavors, economic and military.
In order to survive into 1946, I must have some form of production still working. Key elements here are HI, fuel and supplies. After that comes aircraft/engines and armaments. I will take a closer look at the economy in a later post.

Military defence is pretty straightforward. I need to use my military force to defeat any invasion of Japan proper. If such an invasion occurs and I cannot dislodge them, I need to delay them long enough to achieve the overall objective.
There are four main defensive areas. Hokkaido, Honshu/Kyushu, Korea and China.

At game start, land forces are:

Hokkaido

2 867 AV
Main combat units consists of 3 Divisions and 6 Bde/Rgts


Honshu/Kyushu

36 076 AV
Main combat units: 64 Div 59 Bde/Rgt


Korea

6 929 AV
16 Divs 10 Bde/Rgt


China

11 201 AV
15 Divs 40 Bde/Rgt

[Hortlund]

State of the economy at game start.

Note HI

[Hortlund]

A quick tour of the defensive zones.

Defensive zone #1 is fairly easy and straightforward. I must deny him the ability to base aircraft on the airfields on Hokkaido, and I need to protect the industry at Sapporo.

This area starts understrength, and therefore the first priority is to reinforce with troops from Japan. In my game as the allies, I originally intended to invade here.



Bihoro is the most vunerable spot. It is lightly defended at start, is in open ground and has zero fort levels. My plan when I was allies was to land at Shikotan, the open-ground island east of Hokkaido, and at Bihoro. Large armored units would then rush up the coast to Wakkanai. Needless to say, I must plan for an early invasion of Hokkaido. Several divisions from Tokyo will rail north and what remains of the Japanese amphibious ships will meet them to ferry across.

[Hortlund]

Defensive zone #2 - The prize

Well, here is where the game will be won or lost. The two key locations are Tokyo of cource, and Osaka/Kobe. In those two hexes alone more than half of Japans total HI production is concentrated, 5 000 HI.

I expect heavy airbattles over Osaka. If he can shut down HI here, I am in deep trouble. Most of my heavy AAA units are ordered to Osaka, and this is where the cream of my fighter units will be based. I cannot stop him, but I must hurt him when he comes here.

Other than that, there are two alternatives for Nemo. Either he lands somewhere in this defensive zone, or he dont. If he lands, I can throw over 30k AV at him. I really dont fear an invasion here (yet), but if he comes, I will welcome such a move, because he will be playing right into one of my very few remaining strenghts, LCU AV.

I will set a trap here. Perhaps that can lure him in. Although I doubt it. He is usually better than that.

[Hortlund]

Defensive zone #3 - Korea

No particular key location here. If he manages to take Korea and/or Hokkaido, it is pretty much over. Then he will be able to base his fighters and medium bombers in range of everything Ive got = game over. Only a miracle could save me after that. Roughly 600 HI can be found in Korea, so it is not exactly unimportant for my economy either.

[Hortlund]

And finally, defensive zone #4 - China.

You might be surprised to find out that Im not going to try to evacuate as much as possible from China. There are three reasons for that.

Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tsingtao.

All those three bases can be upgraded to lvl 9 ports. That is something I very much want to deny him the luxury of having. His best port close to the action is Manila, which starts at lvl 5 and can be upgraded to a 7. After that it is Singapore or Pearl Harbor. Port facilities are few and far between for the allies in this game. I will go to great lenghts to prevent him from getting his hands on such good port facilities for free.

Im actually going to reinforce China from Formosa. I will not give him an inch when it comes to those three hexes.

[WLockard]

Why do you feel a level 9 port is worth all that much? He will surely have one or more ARDs and plenty of ARs, AOs and AEs. Any size 7 port will be large enough to rearm any of his ships. With AOs and AEs in any size 1 or larger port he can support a good sized fleet.

[modrow]

Panzerjäger Hortlund,

great AAR format, very interesting. I like it.

Hartwig

[d0mbo]

So far you are talking defensive only. Do you consider any spoiling attacks?

[seii taishôgun]

Do you have any of those sub-cows that carry the midget subs? You can probably produce a lot of them... In testing I can use them to "patrol" base ports.

Do you have subs that can deploy mines? It might be fun to seed a few mine fields in hexes that you think he will enter... I guess the mines don't last very long in the open waters but still, if he taps into a few mines where he's not expecting it might make your opponent a little cautious?


ST

[Hortlund]

No midget sub carriers left, lots of mines though, so I can use that. I have a plan for the mines though, will talk more about that later.

I have a couple of surprises Im planning, not sure whether to call them spoiling attack or raids into his SLOCs though. But generally, at this point in time, its defence only. But I might try to catch some of his B29s on the ground. Truth be told, that is where I have the best chance to hurt them.

Lvl 9 ports are worth their weight in gold. Sure he can build up logistic hubs with support ships, but it is never as good as a lvl 9 port, not to mention that you cannot sink a lvl9 port with a lucky portstrike. Not only that, there are not that many lvl 7 ports in the area either. Basically its Takao in Formosa and Swatow, Amoy and Foochow in China.

[Hortlund]

Here is where most of my mines will go. I want to prevent him from entering the Sea of Japan. I want to prevent raids, either by CVs or surface combat TFs, it will also put a dent or two in his submarines. Basically I want him to fear these straits more than anything. Im going to put at least 1000 mines in each of those three hexes.

[Hortlund]

State of the airforce.

Since these are the guys that will bear the brunt of the fighting initially, I thought I would do a quick run-down of the Imperial airforce.

Japan starts the game with 3 743 active land-based fighters dispersed in 97 units. In addition to that, there navy has 171 fighters in 8 fighter wings. The reserve pool holds roughly 2 400 fighters, about half of which can be used for anything other than kamikaze missions.

17 of the fighter units are good enough to face the enemy, they have 70 exp or higher. 29 of the units have experience levels between 50-65.

These units will be supported by 804 fighter bombers in 20 units. One of these units have higher than 70 exp, the vast majority have experience levels below 50.

Last, but not least (since these guys will probably have alot of work to do) are the night fighters. Here, 548 aircraft in 22 units will try to keep the night skies clear. Ha ha ha, funny. Well, they will try to disrupt the aim of the night bombers anyway. Three of the units have experience of 65, the rest are below 50.



Here is an overview over how I plan to set up the fighter defences. Yellow are main defensive areas. These will have CAP both day and night. I will also put the best fighter units in these areas. I will also put the FB units here, I see them as bomber killers. Green are secondary defensive areas. These fields will hold alot of fighters, but they will be a 50/50 mix of units in training and 50-60 exp units.

[traskott]

Good luck !!!

You'll need it !!! [:D][:D]

[Hortlund]

Sheeesh this scenario is exhausting in the first few turns. I have now spent 8 hours on the Japanese airforce alone, trying to figure out what units goes where, who gets an upgrade and who dont, where to put the training units, where to fight and where to fake, what to defend and what to sacrifice. After these 7 hours I am about 50% done.

[Hortlund]

This is a post stolen from Nemo in his AAR as japan. Im not saying I will follow his lead, but it is a good thing to know what he percieves to be the strong sides of Japan. He knows that I have read the post (I posted in the thread to make sure he knows that) and that should start the mind games. Will I play like him, will I do something different. I can play into this, making him think I will use his tactics against him, forcing him to play against himself...

Japanese Aerial Planning:

Underlying assumptions:
1. Single-engined fighters and cheap purpose-built kamikazes ( modelled in this Armaggedon Mod as being either auto-produced at no HI cost or being produced with spare, obsolete engines ... and thus requiring only 18 HI to produce ) are by far and away the best kamikazes to use.

Why is this?
a. Single-engined fighters can fly high and fast or low and fast, split the CAP, minimise the number of enemy fighters which can intercept them and, if intercepted, manoeuvre and defend themselves somewhat --- all of which increases their chances of making it into attack range without being shot down.

b. Cheap kamikaze planes... While their performance sucks they still use up enemy fighter attacks and every fighter attack used in shooting them down is one less attack to shoot down a more capable plane. Additionally most of the purpose-built planes carry quite large bombs ( 1000+ Kg in the Ohka, 800 Kg in the Ki-115 Tsurugi, 250Kg bombs in the Ki-9 and Willow etc trainers ) which means if they DO break through then they can do some significant damage. They very rarely break through the FlAK though even if they do break through the CAP.


2. IJAAF bombers simply cannot survive when attack CAPed Allied bases/TFs during the daytime. As such they are best used at night where their loss rate will be low enough for the night-bombing raids to constitute live fire training and result in the continual graduation of 70 Skill Ground Bombing Pilots ( for the Ki-264 and a few elite Ki-67 units ).

3. IJNAF bombers are wasted on ground attack missions. In exceptional circumstances where success is absolutely essential ( the strikes on Naha and Naga airbase in the first week ) they can be committed to ground bombing missions. Otherwise they must be reserved for training in rear areas until they have >60 Naval Torpedo Skill at which time they can transition to night-time naval strike missions. Again the rationale is that they simply cannot survive during the daytime

4. The easiest place to kill B-29s is on the ground.

5. In the absence of concentrated fighter sweeps from close range vs mainland Japan the IJAAF and IJNAF can hold against B-29s once sufficient new fighters are being produced. I am eyeing the J7W1 as the best anti-bomber fighter thanks to its centre-line mounted guns ( plus I decided Japan would decide to standardise on 20mm cannon so as to keep their fighters dual-role ( anti-fighter and anti-bomber ). I gave them 1.5 20mm cannon per 30mm cannon mounted so the J7W1 mounts 6 centre-line 20mm cannon now instead of 4 x 30mm cannon. I believe this to be a reasonable swap-out ratio well within volume/weight ratios) while the Ki-94 II should be a good anti-fighter plane thanks to its ceiling and reasonably high speed.

6. Offensive sweeps are not to be tolerated. As much as possible the IJAAF and IJNAF will stay on the defensive and do their best to conserve experienced pilot's lives. Inexperienced pilots will be thrown away by the hundred in kamikaze missions.

7. P-51Hs are superior to anything I have. P-51Hs operating at a range of 20 hexes from their base are so fatigued that my Ki-84rs can handle them on an even footing and N1K5s, J7Ws, Ki-94s can achieve favourable kill ratios.... another argument for taking Okinawa and threatening Iwo Jima.



Expected impact of this force disposition on Allied CV TFs...
Let us assume a ten USN CVs enter the seas around Japan. They will carry 24 Hellcats and 24 Corsairs each. Some may carry F7Fs and F8Fs instead of the Hellcats. I will treat the F7s and F8s as equivalent to the Corsair.. In addition perhaps one in three will carry 24 night-fighting Hellcats. In total assuming a 1/3rd, 2/3rds split between Hellcats and Corsairs ( or Corsair equivalents ) you arrive at a figure of 320 Corsairs and 160 Hellcats as well as, perhaps, 72 night-fighters.

Now, assume that they get hit by 100 Netties or G9Ms per night and begin suffering the occasional torpedo hit to a CA, BB or CV. The 72 night-fighters only kill 5 or 6 bombers per night and the Japanese attacks are continuing apace. The natural reaction is to commit more fighters to the night-time defence of the fleet in order to reduce enemy hits. Let us assume that 60 more Hellcats are drafted in. That leaves 100 for day-time CAP. Already the day-time CAP has suffered a 10% loss ( going from 480 to 420 ).

Then assume that you do a logical split of your daytime CAP, Hellcats down low, Corsairs etc up high. 100 Hellcats down low isn't really enough to intercept a strong low-level kamikaze strike so either the Allies commit Corsair equivalents down low to thicken the CAP OR they accept low-level leakers. The more low-level CAP there is the weaker the high CAP of Corsair equivalents will be and the more high level leakers get through.

So, basically, by making a binary choice ( high or low level CAP ) into a trinary choice ( daytime high, daytime low or night-time CAP ) I hope to split the CAP and get more kamikazes leaking through.



Mainland Defence:
I plan to mix J7Ws and Ki-94s on a roughly 50/50 ratio over mainland Japan with the Ki-94s there to tangle with the P-51s and the J7Ws there to attack the bombers. One thing I learnt from the previous game was that by the time I was ready to upgrade my fighter force the Allies had advanced so far that wasn't useful anymore. One reason behind attacking Okinawa is to buy the time to complete a wholesale upgrade of the IJAAF and IJNAF fighter squadrons. While awaiting these new plans I plan to simply mob the B-29s using even unarmoured planes such as the A6M5 to attack them. I am hoping sufficient numbers will help me swamp the B-29s and achieve a number of kills through the sheer accumulation of small amounts of damage.


Night CAP:
Night CAP is ineffective. One can argue over how realistic that is and over how things might have changed IF Japan had been able to create an integrated air defence network. One way to model this would be to check for radars in nearby bases and give combat bonuses the more contiguous and dense the radar screen is. This would reward players who create such a radar belt whilst not tieing the game into awarding bonus x because it is month y.

I understand though that this is beyond the scope of the game. I am also given to understand that differentiating between the night intercept model of both nations is out of the window ( which is a pity as US night fighter operations were significantly more successful and high-tech than the Japanese efforts ). In any case night CAP is now best used to disrupt bomber streams. This disruption hugely reduces accuracy and is well worth the effort.


Ki-264 As.
By combining ultra-long range recon planes ( Ki-74s, Ki-95s etc ), forward-based Mavis and Emilys as extempore recon operating out of bypassed bases AND sub-based Glens I expect to be able to spook the Allies into rebasing of their B-29s. When maintenance-intensive planes like the B-29 rebase they suffer maintenance damage and fatigue. Both help in reducing their effectiveness in bombing. It may also prove possible to lure the B-29s into rebasing from outside of my range and into the range at which my Ki-264s can attack them.

The Allies will, undoubtedly, prefer to use the B-29s during the daytime. I will, obviously, encourage this by truthfully talking about how difficult they are to turn away from their targets. One thing to realise about daytime bomber raids means that those bombers are all sitting on the ground during the night-time which, if they are within Ki-264 range, is when I'll strike. Even minimal B-29 losses will quickly result in reduced raid numbers as their replacement rate is quite low. If I can cause an early rebasing and then hit the B29s when they are on the ground I should, again, buy time for the changeover to J7Ws and Ki-94s.

I'm also giving some thought to using kamikaze Ki-264As as fighter bait when the USN CVs really come knocking close-in to Japan. A single Ki-264A kamikaze hit should render any CV combat-incapable and if manned by my highest experience Low Naval Skill pilots I would expect a very good hit rate - perhaps as high as 40%. At that rate kamikaze Ki-264As might well be worth the effort and expenditure.


G9Ms.
In extremis I will commit these to launch a daytime attack on Allied CV fleets as a sort of CAP-breacher for follow-on waves. Losses would be massive and that's why the G9M is a one shot weapon. Barring such an extreme situation the G9Ms will simply sit at airbases, biding their time and, perhaps, engaging in occasional night-time raids.


What happens to the Ki-84s, Ki-61s, Ki-44s, A6M5s/7s/8s when the J7W, A7M2 and Ki-94 s replace them?
Simple, they will be pressed into kamikaze service. Why?

Fast kamikazes mean that there will be less time for them to be intercepted.
High altitude means splitting the CAP AND, most importantly, it means the majority of scrambling fighters taking a long, long time to reach intercept altitude.

E.g. Assume a raid spotted at 120nm coming in at 360 knots. That gives a maximum of 20 minutes for the CAP to intervene. The F4U4 will take over 11 minutes to reach about 37,000 feet. This leaves less than 9 minutes for the planes scrambling the instant the raid is spotted to actually intercept. The end result of this is that many of the scrambling planes never intercept and a large portion of the Corsair equivalents are rendered irrelevant. Trigonometry and the technical characteristics of the planes combine to help raids largely defeat CAP.

So, as you can see, high altitude isn't about overflying the CAP, it is about negating large amounts of CAP through the interaction of kamikaze speed, altitude and defending fighter climb rate. The F7 and F8 are better in this regard but even then I would estimate that well over 50% of the possible interceptions are avoided ( many planes don't intercept at all, those which launch the instant the raid is detected only intercept at about the mid-way point of the approach and only those planes already in the air intercept for significantly more than 50% of the ingress ).

The loss of this trigonometry and interaction ( as well as the loss of the CAP-splitting effect of multiple altitudes ) is why the automatic 9,000 feet approach altitude is so disruptive of all Japanese kamikaze attacks from 1108c onward.

[Hortlund]

We have now reached the end of the cease-fire period. Tomorrow will be the first day of combat.

[Hortlund]

First day of the war went to Japan I think.

Imperial Navy
One of my submarines put a torpedo in a CVE just off Luzon. A USN DD squadron raided Hong Kong and sank two stragglers, a CL and a TK. They should have been gone but must have been delayed for some reason.



Imperial Airforce
I did not put up much of a fight. I was expecting having everything including the kitchen sink thrown at my airfields today, so I only put up a single fighter unit over most bases to throw off the aim of the bombers. Surprisingly there were no huge airfield attacks today, and just a handful of fighter sweeps.

50 P-51Hs from Iwo Jima swept Tokyo though, and that was one hex I did not dare not to defend. It cost alot. All in all the USAAF kill ratio today was close to 20-1. The good news though were that two of my fighter types did put up a good fight and went roughly even with the Yanks. My K201s (ie Me 262s) and my Ki-94IIs.

Fighter sweeps today were over Tokyo, Yokohama and Hong Kong. B-29s hit Truk in large numbers but did amazingly little damage. A small detachment of B29s also hit Nagoya, but did little damage.


Imperial Army
Did surprisingly well. US forces invaded Daito Shoto, an island to the southeast of Okinawa. There was no pre-invasion bombardment either from the air or land though, and the attacking forces suffered severe losses. There were also a very large number of transport aircraft damaged by flak. He was dropping paras from Okinawa.

In Luzon, the cut off army units managed to rout a US independent regiment.


Estimated US losses today
2 SS sunk (1 ASW, 1 SS)
2 PF sunk (CD guns)
1 DE sunk (CD guns)
3 APD sunk (CD guns)
1 LCS (L) sunk (CD guns)
1 CVE damaged (Sub)
1 SS damaged (ASW)
1 DD damaged (kamikaze hit)

5 P51H (A2A)
"Dozens" transport aircraft (AAA)

3000 casualties + 300 vehicles lost


Observations/lessons from today
All fighter sweeps went in at max alt.
My kamikaze attacks went through his cap relatively easy. Todays kamikaze strikes were set at 1000 ft while most of his CAP was above 35k.
No strikes today from US medium bombers, and he cannot have used more than half of his B29s.
US CVs are at Daito Shima, that means they can park just offshore Nagasaki tomorrow.
Lots of small probes by light surface combat TFs today around Formosa. He will probably continue with that to interrupt any coastal shipping.

[Capt. Harlock]

Did surprisingly well. US forces invaded Daito Shoto, an island to the southeast of Okinawa. There was no pre-invasion bombardment either from the air or land though, and the attacking forces suffered severe losses. There were also a very large number of transport aircraft damaged by flak.

From the map, I'm assuming the you still have possession of the base? (Not clear from your entry.)

[Hortlund]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
From the map, I'm assuming the you still have possession of the base? (Not clear from your entry.)

Yeah, the US shock attack failed spectacularly at 1 to 34 odds.