Pearl Harbor Flak

[spence]

Shortly after the newest patch (Feb 2012) came out somebody or other was complaining about the results they were obtaining with their (IJN) attack(s) at Pearl Harbor.

I sorta took their complaints with a grain of salt since other responders seemed to be indicating that they had had fairly satisfactory results.

But with the results that I have seen at Pearl Harbor in a PBEM game I just started I have to wonder if a programer inadvertently dropped a comma or an ampersand into the program which causes Pearl Harbor flak units, base forces and all ships in the harbor to load their guns with blanks on a more or less permanent basis.

I only bring it up because the flak at Pearl Harbor has not shot down a single Val or Kate over the course of 2 turns. On Dec 7th with Surprise ON I have less of a problem with this result (well actually I chock it up as another sop to the JFB crowd) since flak did at least seem to claim a couple of strafing Zeros. But for Dec 8th where there is no surprise and the raid has to fight its way through a substantial CAP the same result seems (frankly) unbelievably odd and so far afield from any conceivable historical reality as to make me think that some kind of insect is at "play".

(The complete lack of flak casualties to the KB's bomber force is confirmed by the Intel Screen for the two turns. Also I noted that during the Combat Animation not one single bomber "flashed" red to indicate it had been shot down or "yellow" to indicate it had suffered damage.)

[JocMeister]

Can flak actually shoot down planes in AE? [X(]

[Rising-Sun]

Look normal to me, it depend on your ground crew experiences and what kinda equipments they are using.

[spence]

Look normal to me, it depend on your ground crew experiences and what kinda equipments they are using.

Clearly you have no knowledge of history or anything approximating reality.

[Dili]

I agree, looks bad.

[FDRLincoln]

For what is is worth, I lost six A6M2, six Vals, and two Kates to Pearl Harbor flak in my recent PBEM.
 
On the other hand, I've been able to bomb Singapore with Bettys and Nells at fairly low altitudes (6 to 10 thousand feet) taking just a few losses.

[spence]

I am speaking about NOT ONE SINGLE Val or Kate being shot down or even damaged (144 Kates attacked on Dec 7th and 144 Kates attacked on Dec 8th). I am suggesting that since a couple of Zeroes WHICH WERE STRAFING were hit perhaps some random character or other (I have virtually no understanding of the mechanics of programming more current than 1980) is either invalidating all US flak AT Pearl Harbor or maybe limiting its effective range to 100 ft.

[SeethingErmine]

If you like flak you may want to try out the Babes mods.  Last time I started up a BabesLite game I left the Zeros on 100 ft sweep at PH, and lost a good dozen (~30%) to flak (day 1).  Naval strikes on ships at sea can be a lot more painful too, saw a couple cargo ships shoot down 4 Nells on approach one time.

Edit: Take a look at caster troy's latest AAR for combat reports showing the difference. He shot down 7 strikecraft outright at PH on day 1.

[SuluSea]

 I'll attest flak at Pearl worked in the game I just started.

[jetjockey]

Dec 7th,
 
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 68
      B5N2 Kate x 144
      D3A1 Val x 126
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      no flights
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M2 Zero: 4 damaged
      A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed by flak
      B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
      D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
      D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak
 
Allied aircraft losses
      PBY-5 Catalina: 154 damaged
      PBY-5 Catalina: 8 destroyed on ground
      B-17D Fortress: 44 damaged
      B-17D Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
      B-17E Fortress: 17 damaged
      B-18A Bolo: 48 damaged
      B-18A Bolo: 2 destroyed on ground
      P-40B Warhawk: 66 damaged
      P-40B Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
      SBD-1 Dauntless: 33 damaged...
 
Dec 8th,
 
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 85 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 65
      B5N2 Kate x 90
      D3A1 Val x 87
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
      no flights
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      D3A1 Val: 6 damaged
      D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak
 
Allied aircraft losses
      OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk...
 
Seems about right...
 

[spence]

IN REAL LIFE the Japanese Navy lost 29 aircraft shot down during the Pearl Harbor Raid. Further they had an equal or greater number make it back to the carriers which were so shot up that they were pushed over the side after they landed.

The losses I have seen in every AE start regardless of patch (up to now) seem to be about 15 aircraft of all types shot down OR damaged. They have in the past included both Vals and Kates in one or another category above. In this game, the combined total of both Vals and Kates shot down or damaged in raids on both Dec 7th and Dec 8th is ZERO. The only planes shot down are Zeros which are STRAFING (at altitude 100 ft). That anomaly points to a bug...if not then the only interpretation possible is that the game is being so adulterated in favor of Imperial Japan that it is throwing away even a pretense of having a connection to what really happened.

[spence]

Dec 7th,

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 126



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 154 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 8 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 44 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 17 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 48 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 66 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 33 damaged...

Dec 8th,

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 85 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 65
B5N2 Kate x 90
D3A1 Val x 87



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 6 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk...

Seems about right...

That seems as weird as the results I experienced. If this is an actual result then the program allows way too many standard deviations from the mean.

[msieving1]

That seems as weird as the results I experienced. If this is an actual result then the program allows way too many standard deviations from the mean.

The chances of extreme results is definitely too high. That seems to be a problem with most games.

Of course, results like this ...

PBY-5 Catalina: 154 damaged

... make me believe there's a fair amount of FOW in the report.

[denisonh]

Any good model of combat will have a wide range of outcomes to incorporate chaos.

Put it in the context of 30 outcomes ofrm the model given the same conditions and we can anayze the model.

One outcome is just that, one outcome, and any "analysis" is really veiled ranting.

ORIGINAL: spence

Dec 7th,

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 72 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 126



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 154 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 8 destroyed on ground
B-17D Fortress: 44 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 17 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 48 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 66 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 33 damaged...

Dec 8th,

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 85 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 65
B5N2 Kate x 90
D3A1 Val x 87



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A1 Val: 6 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk...

Seems about right...

That seems as weird as the results I experienced. If this is an actual result then the program allows way too many standard deviations from the mean.

[spence]

If the results were entirely random perhaps you have a point. However the assumption that American flak wasn't aimed or that every flak gunner out of thousands over the course of 2 days was entirely both blind and incompetent is a bit of a stretch.

[denisonh]

Agree about the 2 days in a row. Having two outcomes from one "tail" in a row should be extremely unlikely (something less than a 1 in 2500 chance)

ORIGINAL: spence

If the results were entirely random perhaps you have a point. However the assumption that American flak wasn't aimed or that every flak gunner out of thousands over the course of 2 days was entirely both blind and incompetent is a bit of a stretch.

[tocaff]

Do we have this is a borked call?

[USSAmerica]

I'll offer this example from the Scen 1 game I just started with Historiker using 1108r9:

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 108 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 90
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 135



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 2 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

It is only one more sample, but I did manage to hit a few Jap planes on the first day. I would say it's not completely broken.

I'll also have to call NO on "borked" status. [:D]

[Dan Nichols]

This is from a DBB 28B historical start.

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 114 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 37 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 126



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 5 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 7 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 9 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 39 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 3 destroyed on ground
PBY-5 Catalina: 109 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 12 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 29 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 5 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 6 damaged
O-47A: 2 destroyed on ground
R3D-2: 1 damaged
R3D-2: 1 destroyed on ground
C-33: 3 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 10 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 7 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 2 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 36 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 5 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 18 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 4 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 22 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 41 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
AV Curtiss, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1
DM Montgomery
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 10, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 1
PT-25, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DM Sicard, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
BB California, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
AV Tangier, Bomb hits 1
CM Oglala
AV Wright, Torpedo hits 1
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
AVD Hulbert, Bomb hits 1
YO-43, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PT-26, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DD Dewey, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Ralph Talbot, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Dale, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Honolulu, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
AD Dobbin, Bomb hits 1
CA New Orleans, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Jarvis, Bomb hits 1
CL Phoenix, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
DD Conyngham, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AD Rigel, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DD Tucker, Bomb hits 1


Allied ground losses:
56 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Repair Shipyard hits 2
Airbase hits 36
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 108

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
25 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
10 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
14 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
11 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
12 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
15th PG/45th PS with P-36A Mohawk (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead

Training flight from 15th PG/45th PS has been caught up in attack

[gradenko2k]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Can flak actually shoot down planes in AE? [X(]

I laughed at this, and then I loaded up DaBigBabes' Guadalcanal scenario and watched as the CLAAs damaged an entire squadron of Betty's and even shot down two, with no successful torpedo launches. I'm just about sold on DaBabes for my next playthrough attempt.