Tackling the Russian bear II (No MT pls)

[glvaca]

My game with MichaelT is going into turn 8 currently and since MT is doing an AAR I thought it might be interesting to do one from the Axis perspective too.

The House rules:
1. No HQ bombing unless stacked with combat unit.
2. Non-random weather
3. Max. 3 airbase attacks after first turn
4. No landings West of Sevastopol until 1943.
5. No airbase mega fuel harvest. (no longer possible with latest patch)
6. No para drops to break pockets.

No quitting and no whining

I'm not sure what to expect in terms of how MT will handle the Russian side. My assumption is that he will fall back much faster than Tarhunnas and he will certainly not fight a forward defense. How fast he will fall back is the big unknown. If he fights for the Dnepr, I will try for pocket opportunities. If he does not, my strategy will be to push East as fast as possible, using the Panzers to clear the way so the infantry can get into the fight as soon as possible. The infantry, often ignored, will be instrumental in beating his MLR when he finally decides to stand.
Again I'm assuming that at the very least he'll fight for Leniningrad and Moscow. Most likely Stalino and, should I get there; Rostov.

TURN 1
NORTH
I do a pretty standard opening although I ignore Riga for turn one. Instead, I push two Pz. Divs accross the Daugava and Daugavpils falls easily. (done after picture was taken).
I also decide that the Red circle units are too big of a treat to my supply lines and displace them after the picture was taken.
PzG 1 is reinforced with 20th Pz Div. This puts me in a good position to go either:
1. straight for Pskov should the possibility exist.
2. Advance in the general direction of Polotsk, clear the RR and capture excellent defensive terrain before he is allowed the opportunity to reinforce it.
His reaction will determine what I do next turn.

CENTER
Again standard opening. One Pz Corps is send South, the remainder advances full speed direction Minsk.
As much infantry as can be is pushed East full speed.

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SOUTH
Again, pretty standard stuff.

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LUFTWAFFE
I actually try something new. In an effort to maximize the efficiency of the Lufwaffe from turn 1, I reorganize the gruppe on the airbases.
As many Stuka gruppe as possible are transfered to fighter bases. All recon and otherwise useless stuff is sent to the reserve. The Army airbases have plenty of recon capability.
This gives me around 3 (or was it 4 airbases?) to distribute bomber gruppe too within support limits.
For each Lufflotte, one base directly attached is used for the Ju52's. This allows me to keep these guys in the rear without having to put other bases out of command range. With this setup, I can push the fighter/Stuka bases pretty close to the action, keeping the bomber bases further back, and finally, the Ju52 bases even further without to much negative effect.

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TURN 2
He puts up a strong security screen at the Malta river and this pursuades me in turn to push SE with the bulk of Mansteins Pz. Corps while sending 1 Pz. Div. to clear the East bank of the Malta for the 16th Army infantry next turn.
XXXIX Pz. Corps captures Riga and pushes on East to clear the way for 18th Army next turn.
There are scant pocketing opportunities, MT is proving to be very good at positioning units for maximum delay while using limited resources. Which in turn makes it too expensive in units and movement points for the return on investement to form pockets.

NORTH & CENTER
Before moves, with recon.

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SOUTH
The Kovel pocket is broken, but the Lvov pocket holds as do all other pockets.
What's clear though, is that he is running, and hard...

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NORTH & CENTER CONTINUED
56th Pz. Corps is pretty succesful in its drive towards Polotsk making a defense further North unpractical, which is my objective. Next turn 16th Army's II Corps will be in a position to take over and further clear this very important section of the map.

Straight ahead full power! I combine 3 & 2 PzG into one force and push on to the landbridge in an effort to break the defences before they can become established strongly. And none to soon, as some of his best units are already in position.
The Dnepr bend is defended strongly so no chance on bouncing the river.
As much infantry as can be spared is pushed on full speed East.

I make my first BIG mistake of the campaign in the center by leaving an opportunity to cut-off the bulk of 3 PzG. I know it after I've done it, but there is nothing to be done except hope he does not have the units/movement to take advantage of it....

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SOUTH CONTINUED
Full speed East. Same patern as elsewhere, I grab as much terrain as possible and start moving as much infantry as possible East.
The Kovel pocket is re-established.
The question now is, will he fight for the Dnepr? It's clear that he has moved quite a few starting units in the South to the Center already. Still, he should have more than enough to make a strong stand at the Dnepr. The best way to deal with such a defense, is to move SE along the West bank, forcing him in turn to cover the complete length of the Dnepr or risk being outflanked. This in turn makes his defense weaker and facilitates a crossing whereever I decide to cross.
We'll know more next turn.

[glvaca]

To finish, whole front overview

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TURN 3
Only ending turn SS.
NORTH & CENTER
PzG 4's 2 Pz Corps combine in a push to cross the Velikaya at Ostrov. 16th Army's infantry makes a detour direction Polotsk as planned but resistance is weak.
18th Infantry is moving up and should be in a position to help next turn.

PzG 3 is cut-off as feared and this curtails my options in the Center. What's more, the landbridge is abandonned as is the East bank of the Dnepr. Only pickets remain. It seems he will be falling back much faster than I expected.

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SOUTH
Lack of fuel prevents deep moves and he has a rather ellaborate checker board in place. So I content myself with pushing closer to the Dnepr and in SE direction. It seems he's going to fight for the Dnepr which means I need to wait for the infantry in any event.
14th Pz. Corps spearheads 11th Army to increase their rate of advance.

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Losses

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Air Losses

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TURN 4
NORTH & CENTER
A patern is becoming clear in MT's strategy. Hugging my units are the expendables. Not worth the effort to encircle as they would only be in the way.
Secondly, a substantial gap sometimes with further pickets, sometimes just empty space.
3rd line is tougher but usually still attackable with hasties. Then, the 4th line, strong units, usually dugin or in highly defensive terrain requiring deliberate attacks to clear. Usually, I do not have the movement remaining to del. attack and movement stops.
It's pretty effective. The downside is, you need a lot of terrain as a buffer to use this strategy and he has already surrendered highly defensible terrain while doing so in the North and Center.

In response, I push as fast and as deep as I can to allow the infantry maximum movement next turn. The faster they bridge the gap, the faster I will be able to bring their full weight to the fight. That's the moment this game will be decided. Or at least 1941.

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Close up Center, before movement.

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SOUTH
He abandons the Dnepr! That IS a surprise...
I know MT believes strongly that if the Soviets are given the chance to retreat they can't lose, but I never, ever, expected him to push it to such extreemes. I'll remain careful as he could be right, but somehow, giving me all this great defensive terrain without a fight must come back to haunt him later. Sooner or later he'll come to a point when further retreat is not an option, afterall, retreating to Stalingrad may prevent the loss of a single unit, but it's doubtful it will bring you anything else than defeat on a long term basis.

[glvaca]

NORTH CONTINUED
Pskov and surroundings are easily cleared by the Panzers with some help from 18th Army's inf.
Slightly to the North, I run into some first class Russian infantry (56+ Morale) which I'm forced to deliberatly attack.
Soon, 16th Army will shift North to help in the attack on Leningrad.
XIII Corps has been assigned to 4 PzG, and will have 4 solid infantry divs attached.
2nd Army will be moved into the gap between 16th Army and the Center and will generally be used as a flank guard.

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CENTER CONTINUED
I push on as fast as circumstances allow. My objective here is the Belyi Axis which seems to be lightly defended. Hopefully he will not reinforce it too much by next turn.
I decline crossing the Dnepr with the Panzers at this point. Supply is bad enough as it is. This will be a job for the infantry. He's running so fast, I can bairly keep up!

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SOUTH CONTINUED
Pushing on, clearing the way for the infantry.

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OOB

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TURN 5
Only ending shots this turn except this one; state of the Panzer waffe start of turn. Movement generally sucks.