Fall Gelb - rematch - the Allies

[gwgardner]

The initial stages of our rematch Fall Gelb, between me and Chocolino, have proceeded pretty much as one would expect: the fall of France, the beginning of an intense Battle of the Atlantic and Med, and a transfer of focus from northern Europe to the Med.

It is now Feb '40, and the Germans have conquered continental France, the Low Countries, Denmark, Yugoslavia, and invaded Greece. The Italians are tasked with taking the French possessions in North Africa.

The British early on abandoned the fight in France and transferred their mobile forces to Tunisia, in an effort to punish the Italians should they enter the war. After they did enter, the British mobile forces struck hard for Tripoli, but the Italians, with the assistance of German air, were able to hold on and have gained the upper hand.

Until French N. Africa falls, which it will, it remains a base for air ops against Italian sub raiders and shipping.

[gwgardner]

If the Allies can hold out in Greece long enough, any further efforts by the Axis to finish off France in Syria will take much needed forces away from their effort against the Soviet Union. The Germans are already amassing infantry forces on the Soviet border.

[gwgardner]

It's a lost cost in Greece, but it's all about delaying the German successes, and using Crete in the ASW war.

[gwgardner]

Russia prepares for war:

[gwgardner]

Late Feb '41

Recon from Crete shows that the Germans have been quick to pull their armor out of mainland Greece, after Athens fell last week. Why the very quick recall?

Ominously, the Soviet radio intercepts have discovered the presence of German armored units in Poland.

In Cairo, speculation is that the Germans may attempt to pressure or even attack Turkey, in order to gain access to Syria. The Foreign Office is making every diplomatic effort to forestall any Bulgarian alignment with the Axis, as that would be critical to any German move south.

The Royal Air Force has relocated all N. African assets to Crete and Malta, in anticipation of a quick Italian takeover of Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. The last French garrison units in Tunis have withdrawn also, for Syria. The French govt. in exile is now established in Damascus.

With the Royal Navy being forced to pull out all its aircraft carriers from the Med, for maintenance and repair, the French Navy is the only substantial allied naval presence in the Eastern Med. The Western Med is for all practical purposes, an Italian sea - for the moment.

[gwgardner]

March '41

The situation in the Med has seriously deteriorated. With the fall of Greece, the Luftwaffe has extended its sway over the Aegean and Central-Eastern Med. Heavy losses by the RAF in Crete have forced a complete evacuation of that island.

Worse still, the Luftwaffe was able to perform strikes against the French fleet and damaged the lone French carrier so much that it will be forced into Alexandria, with no hope of repair. French funds are in the negative now, and there are no British funds available to subsidize the French. We can only hope that aide from across the Atlantic might reach us, and eventually allow that French carrier to be repaired. In the meantime it will be towed the long way around Africa to drydock in the UK.

At this point it's a waiting game. Where will the Axis strike next?

Reinforcements from Britain are underway for Egypt, but they too must take the long route around the Cape.

Right now the home islands are still vulnerable. If the Germans wanted to head West rather than East, there's little to stop them.

[gwgardner]

All winter and Spring Stavka has been preparing for a decisive, short strike against Finland, hoping to head off the rumored alliance between that country and Germany.

In mid April, just before the ground would begin to thaw, the strike was launched.

Plans started going awry from the beginning, as the thaw took place, causing the armored spearheads to slow to a crawl and lose effectiveness. To make matters much worse, the Axis decided to come to the aid of Finland and now the Kremlin is faced with war on a much wider front.

Following a long-planned strategy, as soon as the Axis declared war, the Kremlin launched a push into Hungary - which was ostensibly neutral, but leaning quite clearly to joining the Axis. The hope is to push deep into Hungary, forcing the Germans to commit forces there.

[gwgardner]

A key part of the Finnish attack is a quick stab in the north, so that Soviet forces there can be soon repositioned to the south.

[gwgardner]

In Egypt, The UK has been building up its forces. With the Italians inactive on that front - apparently taking its sweet time to bring forces forward from Tobruk, the British decided to launch a short attack towards El Alemain.

The attack has begun with massive aerial bombardments of Italian frontline troops.

[gwgardner]

May 1941

The plan for the Hungarian campaign is to distract the Germans from their main push into the Soviet Union.

It was expected that the supply line through Lviv would be cut off quickly, and the planned next step is for the Soviet troops to disperse deep into the Hungarian countryside, harassing and disrupting for as long as possible.

[gwgardner]

May 9

Italian troops withdrew from El Alemain without firing a shot. Recon hasn't found any Italian reinforcement effort, and zero presence by their air force, so, consideration is being made for continuing the offensive, perhaps even to threaten Tobruk.

[gwgardner]

May 9

With all available military resources being desperately needed in the south, the Finns wrote off Petsamo, and Soviet forces entered the town this week. Thus releasing 2 bomber and 1 fighter squadrons for action in the south. It will take longer to shift the ground forces, given the ground and weather conditions - perhaps 6 -8 weeks.

Helsinki has been invested by 1 infantry and two tank corps. The Wermacht transported a division of German infantry to Helsinki, but it has been relentlessly hammered from the air and sea since debarking, and has been shattered for all practical purposes.

Meanwhile, German forces approach Minsk and Riga. Each city is defended by a strong corps, but Stavka has been ordered not to expend too many resources in defense of these cities. Instead, the strategy is to delay, delay, delay, allowing Soviet forces build up farther in the interior.

There is little evidence that the Germans have committed their entire strength to the Eastern Front. Worry is building that they may attempt an end-around move through Turkey.

[gwgardner]

June 9 '41

While the invasion of Finland has been successful in its initial goals, it remains to be seen if it will be a success strategically, since the Germans have established a strong position, with a secure port, in the west of the country.

The Russian navy has taken extremely heavy losses in support of the Finnish campaign, especially in remaining at sea long enough to help with the taking of Helsinki. But now it is effectively destroyed.

Stavka has been ordered to establish a defensive line west of Helsinki, and to pull back all armored forces from the front lines, as they have been taking serious losses unsupported by infantry.

[gwgardner]

The Italians have taken Malta, and already recon shows that they are sending more forces to North Africa. Therefore the advance beyond El Alemain has been halted until we discover if there will be a German contingent. If that happens, we will pull back to more secure supply lines.

[gwgardner]

mid-August 1941

The Germans are approaching Leningrad, Smolensk, Kursk, and have flanked the defenses of Rostov. Reinforcements to any location on the front are almost non-existent, with production way down. At this point, with probably two full months of good campaigning weather still ahead, it seems that Germany can advance wherever they will.

In North Africa, the Italians have finally launched the opening rounds of their offensive against Egypt, with heavy bombardment and air strikes against British air bases. The British will fall back to prepared positions at El Alemain, but will have to abandon those positions if the Italians succeed in gaining air superiority.

[gwgardner]

Dec 1

The Russian Front is relatively stabilized due to inclement weather. However, in the Caucasus, where the weather is not so severe, the Germans have concentrated their armor and are continuing the push. They have already taken important oil production centers, and now threaten to cut off convoys to Sevastopol.

[gwgardner]

In the north, the Finnish and Leningrad fronts are strongly defended, but when campaigning weather returns, IF the Germans decide to position armor there, there's not a lot of depth of defense to stop them.

[gwgardner]

Overall in the Russia, it's going to be a race during the Spring of '41 to shore up the front before the Germans make their major push.

[gwgardner]

In Egypt, the expected Italian offensive never materialized. They have overwhelming superiority in numbers, but long, extended supply lines.

[gwgardner]

Unable to counter-strike in Egypt, the British have decided to maintain a foothold in Morocco. If the US would provide military aid, this foothold could be the key to pushing the Italians out of Africa.

As it is, British convoys are very sporadic in supplying the troops in Morocco and Egypt. Most weeks, no convoys are run, due to continuing German sub attacks.