Reports from Area 51

[CapAndGown]

Modified version of Eastern Solomons scenario.

IJN ships start from Shortlands
USN ships start from Luganville

TF Commanders set to 50 for all variables
No changes made to ship captains' ratings

Highest of system or float damage given in parentheses.
If float damage looks like it may cause ship to sink
before it reaches port, then it is listed as "float".
Float damage also listed, even if lower than system
damage if it appears that ship may sink before
reaching port. Damage less than 10 is not reported as
it seems likely that much of this damage was operational
and not combat related.

=================================================================
First test set: test high IJN experience rating
=================================================================

IJN night experience: 90
USN night experience: 30
US CA's: SC radar
US DD's: SG radar
-----------------------------------------------------------------

(1) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 4 (22)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (76)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 4 (23)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (45)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 7, and is (Sunk) [paren added]
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 266

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, on fire (33)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 2
DD Radford, Shell hits 1
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (52)
DD LaValette, Shell hits 2, on fire (20)
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 105

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 1
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victory: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2 (24)
ships hit: 1
ships damaged: 1
total damage: 24

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(4) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (64)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (77)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1 (13)
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2, on fire (50)
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 204

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 3, on fire (53)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 12, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (86)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD LaValette, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (84)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (92)
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 6
total damage: 515

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(5) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1 (22)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 6, on fire (46)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2 (32)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1 (13)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (28)
DD Makinami
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 141

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (57)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1 (16)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 73

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(6) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1 (28)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 4
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2, on fire (23)
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 2
total damage 51

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1, on fire (24)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (91 float)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (89 float)
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 204

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(7) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2, on fire (11)
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3, on fire (32)
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (96 float)
DD Makinami
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 139

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (24)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 124

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(8) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 3, on fire (26)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (69)
CA Takao, Shell hits 3, on fire (22)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3 (31)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (39)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (43)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
ships hit: 8
ships damaged: 8
total damage: 430

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (68 float)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 3, on fire (40 float)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 3, on fire (44)
DD Radford, Shell hits 3, on fire (31)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 183

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USN crosses the T
(9) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 2 (28)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3, on fire (29)
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 57

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (32)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit 2:
ships damaged: 1
total damage: 32

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(10) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 2 (27)
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami, Shell hits 3, on fire (37)
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 64

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 2
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 4, on fire (45)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 2, on fire (19)
DD Radford, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (68 float)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 4, on fire (33)
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3 (42)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 207

Victory: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IJN crosses the T
(11) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1 (13)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (21)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1 (19)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 53

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1, on fire (26)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1, on fire (24)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 50

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IJN crosses the T
(12) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Takao, Shell hits 3
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (72 float)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (29)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 4, on fire (30)
ships hit: 8
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 131

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 6, on fire (41)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (83 float)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (35)
DD Radford, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (53)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2 (32)
DD LaValette, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (77 float)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (68 float)
ships hit: 8
ships damaged: 8
total damage: 489

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IJN crosses the T
(13) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2 (27)
CA Takao, Shell hits 1 (28)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (53)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2 (20)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1 (27)
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 155

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 3
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 2, on fire (28)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (47)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1
DD Radford, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (79 float)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 3, on fire (53)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (74 float)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 281

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(14) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2, on fire (38)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 1
total damage: 38

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (40)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 1
total damage: 40

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(15) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2 (25)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1 (16)
DD Makinami
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 41

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 2 (30)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2 (22)
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 52

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

(16) Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1 (19)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (35)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (14)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1, on fire
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 68

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(17) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 4 (22)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2, on fire (34)
CA Takao, Shell hits 4 (13)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (75 float)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1, on fire (21)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 6
total damage: 265

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 3, on fire (14)
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 4, on fire (31)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (71 float)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2, heavy damage (58)
DD LaValette, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (61 float)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 235

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(18) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1 (18)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1 (23)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (24)
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 65

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Torpedo hits 1 (35)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 3
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (77 float)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (28)
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 140

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(19) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2, on fire (38)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 4
CA Takao, Shell hits 10, on fire, heavy damage (86 float)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (51)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1 (17)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1 (20)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (50)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2
ships hit: 8
ships damaged: 6
total damage: 262

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 2 (16)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 3
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (61)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 77

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(20) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1 (24)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (59)
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (66)
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (84 float)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 2 (12)
DD Makinami
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 245

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 5, on fire (51)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (30)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 4, on fire (46)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is (Sunk) [paren added]
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 327

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of IJN ships hit: 99
Average number of IJN ships hit per engagement: 4.95
Total number of IJN ships damaged: 69
Average number of IJN ships damaged per engagement: 3.45
Average damage to IJN per engagement: 135
Average damage to IJN ship per engagement: 16.9

Total number of USN ships hit: 93
Average number of USN ships hit per engagement: 4.65
Total number of USN ships damaged: 59
Average number of USN ships damaged per engagement: 2.95
Average damage to USN per engagement: 157
Average damage to USN ship per engagement: 19.6

USN ships hit by torpedos: 23 (one ship hit twice)
Average per engagement: 1.15
IJN ships hit by torpedos: 2
Average per engagement: 0.1

Both sides surprised: 6
IJN crosses T: 3
USN crosses T: 1

Biggest USN loss: engagement #4, average damage: 64, total damage: 515
Biggest IJN loss: engagement #8, average damage: 54, total damage: 430

Victory: IJN - 7; USN - 9; Draw - 4
Greatest USN victory: engagement #8, 247 more damage to IJN than USN
Greatest IJN victory: engagement #12, 358 more damage to USN than IJN

Comments:
Equal numbers of USN and IJN ships seemed to be firing each round.
Though I did not watch each round, of those I watch, it did seem that
most ships were willing to fire, both guns and torpedos. This is confirmed
by the large number of ships hit. The higher number of torpedo hits by the
IJN may reflect the fact that they had 3 more ships with torpedos than the USN.

On average, more IJN ships were hit and damaged each turn than USN ships.
The damage to USN ships, however, was greater. This is accounted for by
the number of torpedo hits achieved on the USN.

The most decisive factor influencing combat is range. Any combat conducted
at 8000 - 9000 yards is likely to result in little to no damage. Combat
occuring at 4000-5000 yards is likely to result in a blood bath for both
sides.

[ADavidB]

Interesting test set. What did you vary between the various test runs? Did you do a fresh start for each? What is the average and range of Japanese experience for a non-modified scenario?

Thanks -

Dave Baranyi

[Pawlock]

Some very good data there, but it would be interesting using your figures how you class a victory from a draw.

If you were to say use a ballpark figure of 20 % damage differential in order for one side to claim a victory , then I think you would find your figures would bring 3 of the USN's victorys down to a draw.

While Im certainly not as hung up on these sort of figures as some , they still do make some interesting reading.

[Yamamoto]

These results seem to indicate that a 90 to 30 experience difference doesn't count for much compared to early US radar. Based on these results I would say radar is being given too much emphesis and experience too little. What do you think the aire to air results would look like if one side had 90 experience and the other side had 30? Even if the 30 side had better planes I know they would get slaughtered, as they should. The same results should happen in surface combats.

Yamamoto

[CapAndGown]

=================================================================
Second test set: test equal experience rating
=================================================================

IJN night experience: 60
USN night experience: 60
US CA's: SC radar
US DD's: SG radar

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2, on fire (14)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 3
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1 (24)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (55)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 2
DD Makinami
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 93

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1, on fire (18)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1 (23)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 142

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USN crosses the T
(2) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 6, on fire (22)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 4 (11)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (89 float)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 11, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 3, on fire (26)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (68)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 3, on fire (26)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 6
total damage: 342

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (63)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (21)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (55)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1 (22)
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is (Sunk) [paren added]
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 261

Victor: IJN/Draw [this one is hard to qualify as the USN had all its CA's hurt]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(3) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 3 (37)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2, on fire (27)
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 64

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (28)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1, on fire (22)
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 50

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(4) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2 (31)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 3
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (63)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (97 float)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (28)
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 219

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Torpedo hits 1 (28)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 2 (20)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (91 sys, 84 float)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, and is (Sunk) [paren added]
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 239

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(5) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (44)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (14)
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 3, on fire (42)
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 100

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (15)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1, on fire (16)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1 (27)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 4
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 158

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(6) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2, on fire (38)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (52)
CA Takao, Shell hits 2
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (38)
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (29)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 157

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 2 (10)
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1 (17)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 3, on fire (11)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 38

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(7) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao, Shell hits 4
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1 (16)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1 (11)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 27

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford, Shell hits 1
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both surprised
(8) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 4 (19)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (73 sys, 70 float)
CA Takao, Shell hits 2
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (52)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 3, on fire (43)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 187

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (70 float)
DD Radford, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (50)
DD Jenkins, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (52)
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 172

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(9) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(10) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (76)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (55 float)
CA Takao, Shell hits 2
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (64 float)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (64 float)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (98 float)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (45)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (60)
ships hit: 8
ships damaged: 7
total damage: 462

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 2 (32)
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (71 float)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette, Shell hits 2 (17)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 120

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(11) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao, Shell hits 6 (18)
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 3 (23)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 4, on fire (23)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 3, on fire (27)
DD Makinami
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 91

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 1
total damage: 100

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IJN crosses the T
(12) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 5, on fire (40)
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5 (21)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (29)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (43)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (60)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 6
total damage: 293

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (64 float)
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, on fire (15)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 4, on fire (44)
DD Radford, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (85 float)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2
DD LaValette, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire (39)
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 247

Victor: USN [if Portland and Radford sink, then USN damage = 308, Draw]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(13) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: Draw
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(14) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami
ships hit: 1
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 1
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (33)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (78 float)
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2, on fire (18)
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 129

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Both sides surprised
(15) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 5
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (37)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (34)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 8, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1 (22)
ships hit: 7
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 193

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 5, on fire (15)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 3
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, on fire (28)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 2, on fire (34)
DD Radford, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (52)
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (73 float)
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 5
total damage: 202

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(16) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1 (23)
CA Takao, Shell hits 1 (28)
DD Yugumo
DD Akigumo
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1 (28)
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 79

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(17) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 5, on fire (50)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1 (15)
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 2
total damage: 65

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (68 float)
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1
DD Radford, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (91 float)
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 2 (24)
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 183

Victor: IJN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(18) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1, on fire (29)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2 (30)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2 (34)
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 2 (17)
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 110

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 0
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(19) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 1
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2, on fire (31)
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1 (19)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 2
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 1, on fire (17)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 2, on fire (50)
ships hit: 6
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 117

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Torpedo hits 1 (44)
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1 (10)
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins
DD LaValette, Shell hits 2 (23)
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 3
ships damaged: 3
total damage: 67

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(20) AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/22/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taivu at 39,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1 (16)
CA Takao
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 2, on fire (40)
DD Akigumo, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (Sunk)
DD Kazegumo
DD Makigumo, Shell hits 2 (28)
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
ships hit: 5
ships damaged: 4
total damage: 184

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Indianapolis, Shell hits 1
CA Northampton
DD Fletcher
DD Radford
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 1
DD LaValette
DD Nicholas
ships hit: 2
ships damaged: 0
total damage: 0

Victor: USN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of IJN ships hit: 101
Average number of IJN ships hit per engagement: 5
Total number of IJN ships damaged: 66
Average number of IJN ships damaged per engagement: 3.3
Average damage to IJN per engagement: 139
Average damage to IJN ship per engagement: 17.4

Total number of USN ships hit: 67
Average number of USN ships hit per engagement: 3.3
Total number of USN ships damaged: 47
Average number of USN ships damaged per engagement: 2.3
Average damage to USN per engagement: 105
Average damage to USN ship per engagement: 13.2

USN ships hit by torpedos: 20 (four ships hit twice)
Average per engagement: 1
IJN ships hit by torpedos: 2
Average per engagement: 0.1

Both sides surprised: 5
IJN crosses T: 1
USN crosses T: 1

Biggest USN loss: engagement #2, average damage: 32.6, total damage: 261
Biggest IJN loss: engagement #10, average damage: 57.7, total damage: 462

Victory: IJN - 8 (7); USN - 9 (8); Draw - 3 (5)
Greatest USN victory: engagement #10, 342 more damage to IJN than USN
Greatest IJN victory: engagement #14, 129 more damage to USN than IJN

Comments:
The IJN was less likely than the USN to hit, but of those ships it did hit,
it was more likely to cause damage.

For each IJN ship hit, it suffered on average 42 damage.
For each USN ship hit, it suffered on average 45 damage.
% IJN ships hit that were damaged: 65
% USN ships hit that were damaged: 70

Again, the long lances allow the IJN to deliver more damage than USN guns.

[Erik Rutins]

Note that the USN DDs all have SG radar (Fletcher Class), which is a significant point in that these sets were much more effective than the SCs. If you run more sets, it would be interesting to see the original test set with IJN having higher experience and the USN having only the much worse SC radar sets to see if a significant difference can be seen in this small sample.

Regards,

- Erik

[Piiska]

What about the BBs? I believe there might be something odd about them. I recently started the campaign as Japanese and received Yamato little while ago (v.1.4).

I followed the advice from the previous thread to group only BBs together to avoid them being spectators. Now I have a new problem: Yamato is watching, while the Kongo class BBs get all the action. I have only had three engagements and I don’t have AARs, but I noticed that Yamato fired only once or twice per battle and only with the smaller guns of her. I checked the ammo and no big ones had been used.

Similarly, all the other BBs in the fight (both U.S and Jap) fired suspiciously rarely with their main armament.

What is going on? Is there some rationale against using the main guns in a battle where 5 BBs are pitted against 1BB,4 CAs, and 6 DDs? Why did they install those 18.1 monsters in the first place if they are not used?

I can’t believe that the problem is the ship didn’t have a firing position, as it fired once or twice with the small guns at the U.S CA. If it had a (big) target, why didn’t it shoot at it with its main weapons? To me it seems that the bigger the gun, the rarer its use, which sounds realistic and therefore likely that it has been coded in somehow.

Deducting from this, I believe the values governing the use the big guns are somehow off, preventing their use in battles, or at least making it extremely rare.

I will try to find time to run controlled experiment with BBs, but I doubt that will happen in next week or so.

To: cap_and_gown, or anybody else, would you be able to run the same test using BBs, both Jap and U.S, in few different scenarios, such as (BBs Vs BBs), (BB+4 CA vs BB+4 CA), (BB and 5 DD vs 10 DD) and (BB vs 10 DD).

I would be specifically interested in Yamato’s performance since it has the biggest guns of them all, and if my hypothesis sounds reasonable, studying Yamato would be a logical choice to study fire rates of the big guns.

BTW. something odd happened last night. I haven’t played Japs before, so out of curiosity I sent Yamato with two other BBs on a bombardment mission from Lunga to Luganville (size 8 with heaps of Airplanes& troops). The taskforce bombarded all right, but altogether they scored only a 1 hit on the runway and no casualties. This was my first bombardment as Japanese, so I really don’t know what sort of result to expect. However, this result seemed a bit too inefficient, so I checked the ammo and found out that only two rounds of small ammo had been used. I have to try to confirm this as well. I try this again tonight; maybe something just went wrong for them that time.

[DoomedMantis]

If you send your BB's on a bombarment mission (night) you want to see them use up a fair whack of ammo, saves the need to have to try to send them back again the next night using up heaps of fuel in the process, so that by the time they get back to port they have bugger all fuel, but plenty of rounds left.

[Drongo]

Posted by Piiska

To: cap_and_gown, or anybody else, would you be able to run the same test using BBs, both Jap and U.S, in few different scenarios, such as (BBs Vs BBs), (BB+4 CA vs BB+4 CA), (BB and 5 DD vs 10 DD) and (BB vs 10 DD).

You could give it a try yourself. If you dont want to use the editor, pick a scenario that has the ships you want and two potential bases that are close to each other (like Jap Shortland Island and Allied Lunga). If the ships you want dont turn up for a few months, put all the a/c on 0% training (so they dont fly) and kick off a h2h game with continuous play. Run it long enough for the ships to turn up then away you go.

I've run several tests over the last few days. I wont post them as there were not enough to be conclusive but as a summary :

1) You now face more risk of receiving heavy punishment to an all IJN BB force under patch 1.4 as DD's are more active (torps).

2) Over 5 battles of 4 IJN BB's vs 4 USN CA's (SC Radar) + 4 USN DD's (SC Radar), the IJN won the first 4 battles without receiving any damage and sunk/crippled a total of 5 CA's and 9 DD's. However the fifth of the battles was fought at 3000 yds and 3 of the 4 BB's suffered about 50% damage and did nothing in return.

3) All BB's will tend to rarely hit with their main guns (but when they hit, it's normally goodnight to anything less than another BB).

4) Putting an all BB force in harms way has one big benefit (if you survive). A small number of ships (with good survivability due to armour) will tend to accumulate a lot of experience in a short time. During some of the tests, the IJN BB's got past 90 night experience (one got to 99). They can really start to become effective at this level (better hit rate). This should be achievable in a player vs player game if you take a bit of care and planning. If the USN ever get one of their SG equipped USN BB's to that experience level, it would be very impressive in combat.

I would be specifically interested in Yamato’s performance since it has the biggest guns of them all, and if my hypothesis sounds reasonable, studying Yamato would be a logical choice to study fire rates of the big guns.

According to the UV tables, all BB guns fire at the same rate, therefore there should be no difference between the Yamato and the Kongo's ROF. One thing I did note when I was testing was that Yamato's leader was inferior to those on other IJN BB's (this could differ from scenario to scenario - you might want to check). A ship captain's ratings are a big factor in how a ship performs in combat.

[CapAndGown]

Note, these are only the first of a series of reports that will check on various attributes. Ideally, I will at some point have completed enough tests on each variable to do a binary logistic regression in order to determine the magnitude and significance of each variable as it relates to damage inflicted. That, however, is going to require a good bit of time.

So far, I envision a dependent variable "total damage" with independent variables:
SC radar yes/no
SG radar yes/no
Experience level
TF commander surface rating
TF size in number of ships

In the meantime, you might wish to suspend judgement.

I would also suggest that some one might wish to use the same method to compare the effectiveness of level bombers at 100 feet versus level bombers at 1000 feet versus dive bombers. Simply create equal sized squadrons with the same experience level, give them the same target TF to fly against and compare the hit rates and damage levels.

[Paul Vebber]

Note that one should use the same ship classes against each other, not just type as capability between ships of the same type and different class can bias the outcome.

[Drongo]

Posted by Paul Vebber

Note that one should use the same ship classes against each other, not just type as capability between ships of the same type and different class can bias the outcome.

Paul,

Are you suggesting something like a battle between USN Portland Class vs IJN Portland Class (created via the editor) with something like the USN ships having SC and the IJN with none (but higher experience)?

If this is what you are suggesting, how do you do it via the editor, does the slot number effect a units nationality?

[Paul Vebber]

ITs been a while and I have a little different editor, but you should be able to go in and copy ascen, then replace the ships in a Japanese TF with US ships and put the same ships in a US TF and have at it.

[CapAndGown]

Using a regression analysis, it should not be necessary to have the same ships fighting each other. Rather, the magnitude and signifigance of each variable should still be evident regardless of the ships involved. In other words, all this effort should reveal the bonuses that Grisby et. al. programed into the surface routine for each different variable.

So far the variables I have for my database are:
IJN experience
USN experience
IJN experience - USN experience
SC Radar (1=yes, 0=no)
SG Radar (1=yes, 0=no)
IJN TF Commander surface rating
USN TF Commander surface rating
IJN TF surface - USN TF surface
#IJN ships - # USN ships
IJN damage
USN damage
IJN damage - USN damage

With an array of data testing various settings for each variable, it will be possible to establish a number of different correlations and regressions.

For instance, one might correlate IJN experience to USN damage or vice versa to see if there is a significant correlation between experience level and the amount of damage inflicted and what the magnitude of this correlation is. Or one might correlate (IJN experience - USN experience) to (IJN damage - USN damage) to see if there is a correlation to between differential experience levels and differential damage suffered. One might even correlate USN experience to USN damage (and vice versa) to see if experience has any effect on the amount of damage recieved.

Regression analyses could test a similar range of questions. Basically, there would be three different dependent variables that would be tested:
USN damage
IJN damage
IJN damage - USN damage

The independent variables could be varied as well to test different hypothoses.

After I run the next set of tests for high USN experience, I will at least be able to run the test set through SPSS to see if there are any correlations between damage and experience. But for greater accuracy, I will be running tests for each side in 10 step increments in experience levels, using 10 battles per level. Only the 90/30, 60/60. and 30/90 battles will use 20 engagements.

[Drongo]

I dont have a lot of free time at the moment but I created the following situation.

Changed the class of 4 IJN CA's to the Northampton Class.

Edited each of the 4 IJN "Northhamptons" to have the same "average" captain (50 leadership, 70 Inspiration, 50 Surface Combat and 70 Aggression). Gave the same captain to 4 selected USN Northamptons.

Created a TF leader for both sides that had characterstics of (70 leadership, 90 Aggression and 50 Surface Combat).

Both sides therfore had the same weapons (US), ships (Northampton) and leaders. No ships carried torpedoes.

All the USN ships were given night experience of 40. All the IJN ships were given 75 experience. These values represent the actual average for ships when they appear in theatre in the first 6 months of UV.

Note 1 : The simple act of sailing the USN CA's from Noumea to Lunga (where they were to be based) and then having them sit around for two weeks, caused their night experience to rise to an average of 45 (prior to combat). Since this could be reasonably expected to occur in the game normally, that average value was used in combat.

Note 2 : Both sides have SC radar on their ships. I could find no way of stopping the IJN Northamptons having this. I continued with the test as it gives a good indication of the difference crew night experience can make (all else being equal).

The battles consisted of a 4 CA Surface Combat TF sailing to an adjacent hex and engaging an enemy Surface Combat TF at night for one battle. To avoid the same random seed being used, each battle was fought on a different day. The first 5 battles were the USN moving to attack the IJN. The second 5 were the IJN moving to attack the USN. This was done in case the attacker/defender was at a advantage/disadvantage. Finally, in no battles did either side have a tactical advantage (ie cross the "T"). This is not surprising given they had identical TF leaders.

Paul, I would be interested on any comments on the following.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/01/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 1
CA Takao, Shell hits 2
CA Atago, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (50)

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, on fire (20)
CA Chester, Shell hits 1
CA Louisville, Shell hits 8 (40)
CA Chicago
*************************************
DRAW
*************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/02/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 6, on fire (30)
CA Takao, Shell hits 2
CA Atago

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2, on fire (50)
CA Chester, Shell hits 1
CA Louisville, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (SUNK)
CA Chicago, Shell hits 1
*************************************
IJN Major Victory
*************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/03/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 3, on fire (20)
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
CA Atago, Shell hits 4

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2
CA Chester, Shell hits 10, on fire (50)
CA Louisville, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (20)
CA Chicago, Shell hits 6, on fire (30)
***************************************
IJN Major Victory
***************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/04/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 2 (20)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (50)
CA Takao
CA Atago

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
CA Chester, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage (60)
CA Louisville, Shell hits 2
CA Chicago, Shell hits 3, on fire (20)
****************************************
DRAW
****************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/05/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (60)
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (70)
CA Takao
CA Atago, Shell hits 12, on fire, heavy damage (SUNK)

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1, on fire (20)
CA Chester, Shell hits 2
CA Louisville, Shell hits 2
CA Chicago, Shell hits 4 (30)
****************************************
USN Major Victory
****************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/08/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lunga at 38,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (70)
CA Chikuma
CA Takao
CA Atago

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1 (20)
CA Chester
CA Louisville
CA Chicago, Shell hits 1
***************************************
USN Minor Victory

***************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/09/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lunga at 38,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 2, on fire (30)
CA Takao
CA Atago

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 2
CA Chester
CA Louisville, Shell hits 1
CA Chicago, Shell hits 1
***************************************
Minor USN Victory ***************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/10/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lunga at 38,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 3 (30)
CA Atago

Allied Ships
CA Northampton
CA Chester, Shell hits 2 (20)
CA Louisville, Shell hits 2
CA Chicago
***************************************
DRAW
***************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/11/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lunga at 38,40

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 1
CA Atago, Shell hits 2 (20)

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
CA Chester
CA Louisville, Shell hits 2, on fire (30)
CA Chicago, Shell hits 1
***************************************
DRAW
***************************************
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 08/12/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Tulagi at 38,39

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
CA Takao, Shell hits 3, on fire (40)
CA Atago, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
CA Northampton, Shell hits 1
CA Chester, Shell hits 1, on fire (20)
CA Louisville
****************************************
DRAW
****************************************
Final Totals
IJN
Major Victories 2
Minor Victories 0
Total Hits Inflicted 80
Total Damage Inflicted 530

USN
Major Victories 1
Minor Victories 2
Total Hits Inflicted 67
Total Damage Inflicted 590

After 10 battles, crew night experience does not appear to make much of a difference on its own. The IJN hit 20% more often while it had a 67% (75/45) advantage in crew experience. At least 50% of the hits were from non-penetrating secondary batteries. The USN receiving less damage in total would be heavily influenced by its improved damage control (I missed that one when I was setting things up). I think there could be cause to leave allied damage control on as it was present historically (especially after Savo).

Conclusion :
More battles are needed for the current format.
Another set of battles with no radar on either side is needed to confirm the effect of crew night experience.
Differences in IJN and allied ship captain stats need to be checked to see if there is an average advantage for one side. If so, test battles would also be needed to measure what advantage is gained.

[ADavidB]

Drongo -

Looking at your data slightly differently (and if I understand your setup correctly) :

First five battles - IJN waiting, USN moving :

Draw, IJN victory, IJN victory, Draw, USN vistory

Second five battles - USN waiting, IJN moving :

USN victory, USN victory, Draw, Draw, Draw


This makes me think of something that Mogami mentioned in another thread - about the using up of "preparation points" ( as Gary Grigsby called them in Pacwar ) in movement prior to carrier battles - that the move you move, the more points you use up and the less points left for air operations. I wonder if something similar is going on here?

The way to check that would be, first off, to do the same tests, but with everything balanced. Next, to do the same tests, with everything still balanced but with the attacker coming from further away.

Thanks for the effort and interesting results.

Dave Baranyi

[Drongo]

ADavidB,

A lot more battles have to be played out before anything definite can be determined. I'm doing this partially out of curiosity about whether the IJN gets a worthwhile benefit from experience, partially in answer to Erik's suggestion and partially out of an attempt to establish whether a player can do anything to improve his chances of victory.

I see where you are going with your point but in these test battles the TF's only had to move one hex (30 miles between Lunga and Tulagi) to engage. If there is a move penalty, it should have little influence on the current data set. Anyway, if there is a pattern, it should be clearer the more battles are fought. By the time everyone has finished their tests, we should have a better idea of what influences night combat.

Cheers

[Drongo]

My previous set of battles had both sides with radar and no torps.
To give a clearer picture of superior night experience v's SC radar, I ran a series of 10 battles using 4 IJN CA Atago class vs 4 USN CA New Orleans class. These classes are almost identical except the USN has slightly better armour while the IJN has better durability plus torpedoes (naturally).

Both TF's had the same leader (identical ratings) to minimise tactical advantage differences. All ships were given an identical "average" captain for that side (the IJN captains were about 5% better in relevant categories). IJN night experience was 75 to USN 45. All USN ships had SC radar.

Lunga was IJN base and Tulagi was USN base. Battle was entered by moving a Surface Combat TF from the adjacent hex into the enemy base to engage an enemy Surface Combat TF.
The first 5 battles were USN moving, the second 5 were IJN moving.

The battle summaries are as follows :
1) IJN victory
IJN/USN dam received 120/200
IJN/USN hits received 13/14 (+3 torp hits)

2) IJN victory
IJN/USN dam received 60/100
IJN/USN hits received 10/10 (+1 torp hits)

3) Draw
IJN/USN dam received 20/0
IJN/USN hits received 3/4

4) USN victory
IJN/USN dam received 120/50
IJN/USN hits received 14/16

5) Draw
IJN/USN dam received 20/0
IJN/USN hits received 3/1

6) USN victory
IJN/USN dam received 80/40
IJN/USN hits received 14/7

7) USN victory
IJN/USN dam received 200/110
IJN/USN hits received 16/11

8) Draw
IJN/USN dam received 180/200
IJN/USN hits received 16/21 (+2 Torp)

9) Draw
IJN/USN dam received 120/110
IJN/USN hits received 14/12 (+1 Torp)

10) IJN victory
IJN/USN dam received 150/200
IJN/USN hits received 16/21 (+4 torp hits)

Totals
3 IJN Victories
3 USN Victories
4 Draws

IJN dam received 1070
USN dam received 1010

IJN hits received 119
USN hits received 107 (+11 torp hits)

Notes :
a) With the IJN no longer having SC radar, their accuracy is now inferior to the USN. Previously they hit 20% more often. Now the USN hits 10% more often. If this is borne out in further testing, it would indicate that SC radar is more beneficial to gun accuracy than night experience.

b) The re-introduction of Type 93 torps to the IJN ships definitely allowed the damage received for the two sides to remain effectively equal. Without the torpedoes, superior USN damage control and greater hit accuracy would probably have given the USN about a 25% superiority overall.

c) The high number of torpedo hits (for only 4 ships firing) can be attributed to the fact that cruisers (large ships) were the only targets. If slowed by gunfire or an earlier torpedo hit, they would inevitably take 1-2 more torpedo hits. A hit rate of 1.1 per battle would not be indicative of the common battles in UV (as there would be smaller targets around).

d) If one side or the other "crossed the 'T' " of the other side, the battle was discounted as I was testing only for night experience and SC radar. It is worth mentioning that the IJN crossed the 'T' twice and the USN once. This would be entirely random as the TF leaders were identical. The USN case resulted in a draw. The two IJN victories resulted in them gaining a huge victory, both times. (all USN ships were heavily damaged and several were sunk while the IJN suffered little or no damage.) This will need further testing to establish why a major victory (inflicting more than twice the damage) only occured when the "T" was crossed and also why the USN could not gain an equivalent advantage under the same circumstances.

e) More battles are needed before anything conclusive could be stated.

[mdiehl]

Interesting stats. Given these results I'd say that there's no need for the "Tassfaronga" generator mentioned in another thread. When the US is moving, the IJN gets two susbtantive victories out of 5 battles, and two draws. That sounds about right for 1942, with most US ships possessing SC and most IJN ships lacking radar. In short, the surface action generator seems adequate.

[CapAndGown]

Originally posted by mdiehl
Interesting stats. Given these results I'd say that there's no need for the "Tassfaronga" generator mentioned in another thread. When the US is moving, the IJN gets two susbtantive victories out of 5 battles, and two draws. That sounds about right for 1942, with most US ships possessing SC and most IJN ships lacking radar. In short, the surface action generator seems adequate.

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