AAR Allies May 1944

[shermanny]

War in the East veterans Shermanny and Mike play the 1944 campaign for the upcoming War in the West (starting in May) . Shermanny prepared an in-depth AAR, showing you the Allied perspective of the campaign as he lays out his strategy and prepares to push the Germans back. At the start of the game, the Allies are pushing hard into Italy, while at the same time the preparations for the invasion of France were well underway.

I've got Allies. Opponent Mike has Axis. Mike is coming to this game with a lot of experience at WITE but WITW is a new experience for him. I've been looking at it as it developed, though I still have a lot to learn. We'll see how it goes.

For my first turn, I need to rearrange my air force, getting the planes where they will be needed and getting them tasked with the right missions. Also, invasions have to be planned. I think the Allies need to bring the biggest hammer they can get to the invasion. That means shifting fighter-bombers across from Corsica to England, and shifting air transport from Italy up to England. We'll need all the interdiction and airlift we can get.

I decided on a percentage basis which beaches I might want to invade, and then let a random number generator make my selection. One cannot wing it in these matters, especially if one plays repeatedly. A favorite beach is a beach that will be heavily defended. It's rock-scissors paper, but with a twist.

Perfect even-steven randomness is bad strategy. Invading in the Bay of Biscay, or South France, is almost surely wrong. Biscay is too far from air cover and there are too few decent ports. Your buildup will be slow and your shipping losses will be painful. [The Germans can try and bomb the invasion fleet, and absent Allied fighter cover, they'll do a lot of damage.]

South France is a bad idea because it's strategically barren. The Germans can contain a South France invasion for a couple of months without having to commit the kitchen sink to the effort. Nothing vital is close to the front, and the terrain is hilly or worse.

The Netherlands is another story. An invasion there, if it could get quickly off the beaches and out of the heavily intersected maze of rivers, would bring victory in short order. But the "if" here is a big "if". That river maze gives the defenders a lot of chances to contain the invasion. And there's another problem. The Germans, in this scenario, have a chance to rearrange their defenses, unless you want to invade immediately, with lower readiness and in sub-par weather. They will probably improve their coverage of the most dangerous beach areas. Unless they think you wouldn't dare. Wheels within wheels situation.

That leaves the Calais area, the Dieppe area, the Normandy area, and the Brittany area as attractive options. Here, in my opinion one must spread one's bets, weighted more heavily toward the beaches that will be easiest to hit and break out from, even if they're further from Germany.

The German player has his own decisions. But there are garrison rules. The player wears Ike's hat, or Rommel's. Not FDR's, or Churchill, or CarpetChewer's. And in Berlin, they don't understand the impact allied air power is going to have. They want armored divisions back a ways from the coast, where they can get to the invasion, wherever it is, without having to lose time extricating themselves from other beaches. The player can ignore this wish, to a point, but will pay a victory point penalty. (The Allied player, in turn, must pay more attention to casualties than they would if the only thing that mattered was getting to Berlin. If they don't, you guessed it,VP penalty.)

He can ignore the garrison penalty, take a guess at where you'll invade, and prepare to smash that invasion. That costs a bundle of VPs, but if he guesses right and stacks up high enough on your intended beaches, he may gain so much time before you can mount a second invasion that the VP cost is well worth it. Wearing the German hat, if I decided to take that gamble, I'd pick one of the attractive beaches at random and stack high on it, but weighting the odds toward the ones further East. Stacking up on Brittany is a bad idea because if the Allies hit anywhere else you've pretty much lost instantly, and because if they hit where you're waiting for them, you can't expect to stop a Brittany invasion cold anyhow. It's just too long a stretch of beaches, the terrain is too open, and it's at the end of a long supply line that will be too easy to interdict.

Out of all this, as the Allied player I chose to weight my odds at 40 percent Brittany, 20 percent Normandy, 20 percent Dieppe, and 20 percent Calais. My random number generator chose Normandy. At this point I have no idea what my opponent will do.

[shermanny]

Here's a look at the air screen. One manages air transfers, equipment swaps, and the like in this screen.

[shermanny]

In Italy, the usual attack begins to try to link up Anzio with the main front. That will take a while. The terrain is difficult, the Germans are well dug in, and the Allies must concentrate their best resources on the most important effort, invading France. So the name of the game here is to tie down German forces, infiltrate their lines and inch North, and exploit weakness if the Germans transfer a lot of stuff to France. The screen shows the situation at the end of my turn 1 efforts there. The little box at bottom left is a "jump map". The blue rectangle is the playable area in the game, or most of it (some of it is already Russian controlled, and more will be as time goes by, and Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain are neutral.) The red rectangle outlines that part of the overall playable map that is displayed at higher resolution on the screen.

[shermanny]

For turn 2, no invasion just yet. The weather is foul, and anyway the bombers have work to do before it will be time to invade. Air losses so far are 677 Axis, 1352 Allied. My opponent has chosen to disregard some parts of the garrison requirement rules. On the plus side, that's points for me. On the minus side, those divisions are then free to take up better positions. Ground combat in Italy has been more or less even, with the Allies losing more tanks and the Germans more tubes, manpower numbers roughly equal and not that large.

The screen shows the situation in Italy at the end of my turn 2. There's a bit of a penetration up the corridor of the Liri river valley, and that unhinges the German defenses in the mountains North and Northeast of Anzio. We'll have a continuous front in Italy shortly.

[shermanny]

Turn 3: The weather remains bad and preparations for an invasion are not complete anyhow. So the action is confined to Italy. Here, both sides are cautious. The Germans must be cautious because of their limited mobility, general weakness, and Allied air superiority. The Allies must be cautious because attacking into mountains and fortifications can get real expensive real fast. So we have to work our way through, attacking where the Germans are weak and trying to hold down casualties. A look at the map reveals some feasible targets.

Screen shows the situation before the Allied move in Italy, together with a discussion of possible attacks.

[shermanny]

Here's a look at some of the forces that will be making the invasion of France. The British 51 (Highlander) infantry division, together with 49 ID, will be hitting the beaches at the marked hex. At something like 15 percent over its official complement, thanks to sitting on "refit" in a depot for weeks, at near zero fatigue, and supported by attached assault engineers etc., this division sports an attack strength of 27. That figure will fall precipitously once the division becomes involved in combat. Fatigue, losses of fighting men, shortages of supply, all these things greatly diminish the combat effectiveness of a division. All can be made good with time, though eventually the British figure to run into a shortage of infantry that simply cannot be cured except by disbanding some divisions and parceling the manpower out to the others.

[shermanny]

Turn 4. The weather clears and our invasion secret is out. It's Normandy. It needn't have been. Anywhere from Brittany to Dunkirk can be the target. Further West is likely to be easier going but less payoff when it works. So it stands to reason that the Germans will guard the eastern beaches more heavily. Thus, even though I'd like to invade there if I thought it would work, I weighted my dice toward Britany and Normandy, while allowing for them to come up Dieppe or Calais if they really wanted to. They said Normandy.

The inchwise advance in Italy continues. My forces there are at least united now, and working their way through the German lines in front of Rome. There has been heavy air fighting over Germany and air losses are now roughly 1400 Axis, 2900 Allied.

The map shows battle sites. These ground combats involved modest losses, roughly equal on both sides.

In the North, the invasion is launched. The map shows the interdiction (on land), and naval patrol (at sea) that will be in place during the coming German turn. 9's are good, because German forces moving through a "9" will be significantly delayed and will suffer considerable disruption and loss of manpower and equipment. Even 0's, oddly enough, are better than nothing.

The boxes with the parachute symbol in them indicate where an airborne division is slated to drop. I weighted my attack a bit differently from the historical plan, choosing to put more divisions ashore on the far side of the Orne. Historically, this part of the plan was left to a British airborne division, and it managed to take its objectives and hold until relieved.* In the game, the Germans are permitted to react more coherently than their actual hesitant and piecemeal response, and that airborne division is likely to be thrown out of its little position on the far side of the river. In my plan, there will be regular infantry on the same side of the river as they are, and they'll be dropping into bocage, where their defense will be much enhanced.

This invasion should ensure that there will be ground forces on both sides of Caen next turn, well positioned to take that city early. That's important because I need to move inland and get clear of the bocage country before the German position solidifies. It can get to be an impenetrable wall if they're given time.

*On a visit to Caen in June 2010, I had the honor and privilege on June 5 to take breakfast with a couple of wiry Brits who looked to be in their 80s. They were there for a ceremony marking the anniversary of D-Day; they'd dropped with Brit 6AB. And held until relieved.

[shermanny]

In Italy, things did not go to plan. The Germans were stronger in the Liri valley than it seemed. What you see is not what you get in this game. Enemy units can be stronger, or weaker, than the screen says they are. Combat will resolve initial false readings, but until then, you don't really know exactly what you're facing.

So, no pocket. Just infiltration and inching North.

[shermanny]

And now to turn 5. My opponent, as it worked out, seems to have chosen to reinforce the Calais area. Had I invaded there, I'd have probably been looking at eventual defeat. War can be a bit of a gamble sometimes, but it seems I chose rock and my opponent chose scissors. We're not exactly flipping coins to see who wins, and strategy is very important, just as it is in poker. But there is a chance element. I'm in luck.

Allies are safely ashore, and can fan out inland. There was a ferocious air to air fight, and there'll be more during the Allied air phase. This turn is so important it deserves more discussion than most.

The Allies will bring on the armored divisions sitting just off shore, and as much more as their shipping will permit. The Germans will probably sink some of it. They have some naval patrol interdiction, and they may have a few E-boats operating out of LeHavre. But there's no help for it. Time now is the most important element of combat. We must move quickly inland. (This is a departure from my cautious philosophy for Italy.)

The arrows show the intended advances. More may be possible, or not. We'll see. Air losses now sit at roughly 1800 Axis, 3000 Allied.

[shermanny]

And now, a look at the situation in Normandy at the end of the Allied turn 5. Air losses now stand at roughly 1900 German, 3700 Allied. The Allies cannot sustain this operational tempo forever. Operational losses go up when I set my fliers a heavy schedule of missions, which I've been doing, and German flak takes its toll over the battlefield.

On the plus side, the German 12SS (Hitlerjugend) Panzer division (circled) is down to a shell after having advanced through interdiction and then been attacked and forced to retreat through more interdiction. Other units at the front are less severely reduced, but 21Pz, 17SS PzGr, PzLehr, 116Pz, 2 Pz, 3FJ, 6FJ, and several ordinary infantry divisions are in contact with our forces and none of them seem to be close to full strength, with the possible exceptions of 84 and 353 German infantry.

Brit 51 ID is down to a strength of 11, more as a result of fatigue and supply shortages than because of having lost too many men. But we have Caen and a good start on getting clear of the bocage before the German defense hardens.

What comes next? Much depends on German strategy. There's a Willie and Joe cartoon [Bill Mauldin drew and wrote them] which has the one saying to the other that their job is, when the Germans fight, to try and make them run, and when they run, to try and make them stand and fight. The general idea is to take Berlin, which means making time and heading East. But the opponent has a vote. "Phase lines" are idle dreams. Much of what I do will depend on what is possible in view of what he does. So, we'll see.

[shermanny]

And now, a word about the strategic bombing campaign. Vienna, and the Ruhr, have been fairly heavily damaged. Apart from that, the German war economy is still a going concern. The rail net in France has been shot up a bit, but it still can carry freight. At the rate I've been losing planes, it is evident that the air war is not about to bring Germany to her knees.

That's up to Willie and Joe, and me, wearing Ike's hat.

As to Italy, more infiltration and careful fighting. If we're to win in Italy, it will have to be because the Germans shifted forces to France. I'd really rather my opponent stacked up against me in Italy and got out of my way in France, but that's not going to happen.

[shermanny]

Turn 6. First look at the situation shows that the Germans have put together a coherent line, yielding exposed positions in the Cotentin peninsula. We'll continue with the business of getting clear of the bocage before the defense hardens. Right now, we can't be too particular about casualties. The air arm is taking a beating from flak. So be it.

[shermanny]

Allies take Argentan. With that, we've penetrated to where we're not hemmed in by bocage. The German position is now a tricky one, because it can be expensive to retreat through heavy interdiction, but more expensive to wait and find that without good terrain or fortifications, the Allies can work their way into and through your lines and set up encirclements---or the next best thing, tight spots that become encirclements in the following turn.

Picture shows Allied attacks during turn 6 and the end position of Allied forces in Normandy.

[shermanny]

In Italy, more infiltration and cautious attacks. I'm way behind schedule taking Rome but the Poles in the center are levering the Germans out of their mountain fortresses.

[shermanny]

Turn 7. First, the situation before the Allied turn. This is how things stood at the end of turn 6, as far as the Allied positions, but the Germans have had a chance to pull back and dress their lines. Or, if they chose, maybe hit the panic button and take whatever losses that entails in running the air interdiction gantlet.

They chose a modest withdrawal. The Germans made a major air effort to put a lid on my interdiction. So far in this turn, before it's my turn to move even, I've lost nearly 800 planes to his less than 400. On the bright side---

The Allies have some strong and well supplied armored divisions in Normandy, and enough infantry to clear the riffraff out of the way so the armor can do its thing. So the idea has to be to surround the concentration at Alencon (two hexes south of Argentan, and next to the big Brit armored stack), and the 12-factor Panzer division (it's Panzer Lehr) two hexes East of the Canadians.

And also, settle matters with the Germans between Cherbourg and Carentan. That should be easy.

[shermanny]

As to the Germans cut off in the Cotentin, they put up a prolonged fight and it took four or five attacks to obtain their surrender.

But the rest of the plan worked pretty well. The guys at Alencon (12SS Pz and 17SS PzGr) were not so easily surrounded after all, but another stack nearby (2 Pz, 21 Pz) could be tentatively bagged, and PzLehr (130Pz) more definitely bagged. With the general momentum running our way, our proximity to supply, and summer at its height so that air power is extra effective, any tactical situation that develops in the coming few turns is bound to resolve itself in favor of the Allies. We don't have to worry about flanks, or getting counter-encircled. Though just on principle, I make it a rule to leave something as a second line so the beaches don't get rolled.

[shermanny]

The situation in Italy is one of infiltration as the Germans cannot afford to put enough into this theater to force a complete stalemate. I'm way behind schedule, with Rome still in German hands, and it does cut into the "city" points that I should be earning. But the main theater is France, and I can't afford to leave good armored divisions to be strangled by endless mountains and rivers of Italy. So I brought a crack division around by sea before D-Day. It's missed in Italy but it should help in Normandy.


But the German position in Italy is now badly frayed. The Poles (yellow color scheme) have continued to work their way in behind the German mountain positions, which will now probably be cut off, at least the most exposed of them.

[shermanny]

Turn 8 and the Jerries have decided to cut their losses. Quite sensibly. Once the Allies make their breakout, the best way to contain the explosion is to not contain it. Just let it expend itself hitting air. The Germans are going to be putting together a new line somewhere over the horizon, and the Allies can't chase fast enough to preempt it. Besides, we really do have to make such harvest as we can of German infantry that wasn't able to make a clean exit to the East.

There's also the matter of the buildup. It takes time to ship our divisions across, and more so as shipping losses accumulate. And finally, there's the matter of "victory points". The German pays a penalty for failing to keep a considerable reserve in far flung corners of France. This models Hitler's habit of trying to hang on to territory even when cold military logic says to let it go. My opponent is using cold military logic, and as a gamer, I'm using cold gamer logic. I'm not in a rush to cross the tripwires on the map that release him from the garrison requirements. Anyhow, on cold military logic, there's some risk in pursuing to the limit of fuel and ammo, in every imaginable direction, and not knowing where the Germans are. The loss of a few divisions is just part of the game for the German side, but for the Western Allies, who are penalized for incurring casualties, it can be a crushing setback.

The map shows the situation in Normandy at the start of Allied 8, together with a record of air and ground combats during the German turn. The plan is to force the surrender of the pockets and then run riot to the Loire and see if we can trap a mass of German infantry that had been facing us in the bocage of West Normandy or coming up from Brittany.

[shermanny]

Picture.

[shermanny]

This is a good turn. It's the sort of thing Patton would have been proud of, but in this reality, it was Monty who pulled it off. Most of the forces on the map are Brit. The reason has mostly to do with concentration. Up to now, concentrated strength was more important than numbers of divisions. So I've been bringing across top-strength British divisions, which can be reinforced with British armored brigades and still stack as though they were just divisions. And then that meant bringing across British HQs.

The Allies are to the Loire and have pushed far enough West along it that the Germans have no RR exit except by way of Nantes. And in this game, each stretch of rail can only carry so much traffic. Also, air power can specifically interdict rail traffic. Which, of course, I have done. The German infantry that did not already make good its escape will mostly end up captured or hemmed in at a Brittany coastal fortress.