Strength in small numbers (Yellow Sea AAW Training)

[Dysta]

Based on the real-life training:
https://youtu.be/DW0jf3D_WOY (Video, Simplified Chinese)
http://military.china.com/jctp/11172988 ... 61729.html (Simplified Chinese)

EDIT: updated video link.

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This is the scenario replicate the PLANAF AAW training at 2016-Nov, one J-11BH from SSF as BLUFOR versus two J-8F from NSF aided with one KJ-200 from PLAAF as REDFOR. Both sides clash on each other above Yellow Sea.

From the news reported, it was a 1-1 tie, at first 2 J-8F chase the BLUFOR J-11BH head on and attempt to fire PL-12 ASAP, but they're all evaded and spoofed, as J-11BH counterattacked them to victory.

The second attempt, REDFOR adjusted the tactics and try to evade BLUFOR missiles, with AEW's support the J-8F successfully hit J-11BH.

After the report, there are many debates from Chinese netizens, said J-8F won't stand a chance against J-11BH even with one more jet and AEW. The REDFOR's victory is assumed to use one extra J-8F as a missile fodder for the other to flank the BLUFOR jet. Other said KJ-200 is the key to win so J-8F can always see where the BLUFOR is flying and alert them with missile threats.

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So here is my simple scenario to replicate the AAW training. In exact location with small cloud and 10-degree Celsius, judging from video captures.

Both sides' jets have PL-8 and PL-12 missiles, and will get to their positions before head-on-head contact, once KJ-200 pick up the J-11BH, two grouped J-8H will directly chase toward it, as J-11BH will eventually found them. Fuel tanks will jettison when the attack begins. BLUFOR destroy REDFOR AEW isn't required.

This scenario was repeated 20 times, no player inference, just AI-only with pre-planned missions.

The result is quite surprising, the head-on clashing doesn't make 2x J-8F much of disadvantage, but rather they have marginal percentage of evading J-11BH's PL-12. Sometimes J-8F(s) will furball for second shot of PL-12, or both sides clashing in crisscross approach to fire PL-8 up close.

Here's the result:
REDFOR: 10
BLUFOR: 9
Tie (Both sides' jets destroyed): 1

Sometimes they will do the crisscross approach, which is very interesting, their distances are getting shorter slowly with around 30-40 degree side-by-side entry, until they are crossed and fire PL-8 AAMs. The result is also similar to head-to-head BVR missile exchange, and J-11BH successfully spoof one of PL-12 with DECM but not two.

As I can tell the REDFOR will immediately receive warning when J-11BH fire the PL-12, they will quickly change course for evasion as early as J-11BH being targeted. During the crisscross approach, if J-11BH fire the BVR, J-8H will not see those missiles with limited radar area, but KJ-200 can and will alert them. This make J-8F instantly return fire and both sides engage head on as well as evading.

I didn't change either sides' tactics after 20 AI-only tests yet though. Was it a pure coincidence or AEW really make J-8F tougher? Still, J-11BH does not engage AEW first since it will not matter as J-8F will engage beforehand. I also did not attempt an offset approach for REDFOR, like using one J-8F to flank to J-11BH while other just strike head-on for distraction.

My estimation is they both use the same missiles, and J-11BH's DECM and better maneuverability could at least outrun few missiles, but it ended up only where they fire missiles, and when to evade matters the most. The one extra win for REDFOR is surely by luck to my perspective.

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If you have any suggestion to make either side wins more with different tactics, please let me know by comment. And I also uploaded a scenario for you to test. 20 message logs as a proof are also inside the zip file.

[Hongjian]

I think one possible way for either side to do better is utilizing a shoot and scoot strategy, where it fully utilizes the advantages of active radar BVRAAMs by immediately breaking off after launch, pull a split-s and try to gain distance toward the incoming missile and enemy plane. The AI won't do this, and instead continue to close the distance at an intercept/merge vector, which makes it more vulnerable to follow on shots, since the upcoming missiles will have an energy advantage (and this is kinda a small critique from my part on this otherwise great simulation game).
If both sides pull this maneuver repeatedly, and the J-8Fs have enough maneuverability to do this, the question would come down to who has more BVRAAMs - with the Flanker being in the clear advantage. The J-8s have to attempt a merge for SRAAM kill far sooner than the Flanker would, and thus will get themselves into the NEZ of the Flanker's quantitatively superior PL-12s.