Don of a New Era

[Cpt Black]

I tend to play scenarios once as written. Then I go and fiddle with things and try it with different forces. While I'll mention my first play-through here in passing this is with a second try.

The first time I didn't terribly understand the objective. Looking at the map, it seemed the destruction of forces on the Crimean Peninsula was the obvious goal. As the scenario progressed I realized, too late, that perhaps I should have been providing some more air support for the Ukranian ground troops. Ooops, the result was a marginal victory just based on the sheer number of units killed on the peninsula and naval unit in the Black Sea. So I decided to try again.

This time I modernized. For all the countries in the scenario that are F-35 customers, I replaced their F-16s at a rate of 1 to 3. So I removed around 3 F-16s for every F-35 I gave them. As a nod to the Brits I also gave them a squadron of F-35B's at Cyprus that I thought wouldn't really be that useful (boy was I wrong). The results follow, but yes, it went about how you'd expect.

Raptor Ambush

Remembering my first try, I used a bit different load outs. While modernizing the F-16's I also updated the existing planes to their most modern variants. I loaded 4 Raptor's with a max loadout of no less than 10 AIM-120s each and sent them north. A lot of ELINT hits were coming from eastern Ukraine so off I went to provide that air cover I had so poorly neglected the last time. My experience seems to show that even with the external loadout on the F-22, it still gets at least some benefit from stealth. The Russian fighters didn't seem to react to me. And boy, were there a lot of ELINT hits just east of me. I closed until the sight ring was literally full of indistinct targets and went active. Whoa, talk about target-rich!

40 AMRAAMs left their rails in seconds.

I don't know exactly how many Russian Aircraft were downed. Probably 12-15, possibly a few more. It was a blow from which Russian frontal aviation would never recover. I didn't realize it at the time, but I essentially won the scenario right then and there. It so tipped the balance that from then on the Ukranians were able to essentially fend for themselves on the front lines. Russia never overwhelmed the Ukrainian SAMS, and the Ukranian Mig-29's gave a good accounting of themselves when not terribly outnumbered. As far as saving Ukraine went, four Raptors had accomplished it in one mission.

Britannia Rules the Waves!

About those British F-35B's. Again, given their positioning and shorter range, I didn't expect them to contribute that much. Still, there were a couple of Airbus tankers down there from the original scenario. I loaded 4 for Air-to-air, 4 with long range strike missiles, and just what the heck is a Brimstone? They might be useful I decided and you can carry a dozen, so why not? The Meteor armed Lightnings provided absolute air superiority over the eastern third of the Black Sea. There wasn't often a lot of targets, but I still had a few Block 30 Turkish F-16s trying to snipe missile boats out there with Mavericks and occasionally the Russians would try to discourage them. At one point a dozen Bears showed up as well. Nothing returned to base. Eventually they took up station within AA missile range of the southern-most Russian airfield and just picked off anything that tried to take off or land.

Yes, the 4 armed with strike missiles took off, launched their missiles and repeated the process and did their part to attrit the SAM inventory in the Crimea. But the other four stole the show.

Just what is a Brimstone? Think of it as a small diameter longer range Maverick. Originally developed as an anti-tank weapon it has both laser guidance and a terminal radar seeker. And it packs a nice punch. The Russians started with six patrol class craft in the Eastern Black Sea. 5 sank to Brimstones (those Block 30 Falcons got the other, their only contribution to the war). The British F-35Bs with an external load of 12 of these missiles were unstoppable. Once the ships were gone they rearmed and just rolled up literally everything on the eastern side of the Crimean Peninsula. Used at very low level they were never even fired upon as they killed radars, mobile SAMs, TELs and even an entire S400 Batallion in a place I don't think I was technically allowed to go, but hey, they did shoot first (see The American Disaster below.) Stealth, low-level, point blank with accurate missiles is crazy good.

The Italian Job

As things progressed, I remembered my Ukranian brethren fighting in the trenches and decided to once again head north. This was actually the third sortie, the American F-22s had returned, but there was a lull in the fighting and they only bagged a few aircraft, though they did stretch their legs and knock out a couple of tankers and a very valuable Mainstay AEW aircraft. Checking my inventory, I had some Italian F-35s available. With only 4 Meteors each I decided to send 8 of them on a sweep. Tanked up in the Black sea they found a corridor across the peninsula and headed north. There was some fighting going on in the same area as the original Raptor ambush, but it trickled to nothing before the Italians could get there. Full of fuel and ordinance they headed east to meet the Bear. These planes never once had to use active radar. Apparently IRST is quite a bit better on the F-35 than the F-22 and by the time a contact got within missile range, it was fixed well enough for a shot.

They met a CAP of MIGs and shot them down. They shot down the tanker they were protecting and moved on. Another CAP of two and the ELINT Cub they were protecting fell. Another CAP and another Mainstay. Yet another Mainstay never made it above 10,000 feet to replace the first. On they went, deeper and deeper. At 0200 absolutely nothing (hold that thought) was flying. No contacts could be found. 21 Russian aircraft were downed. I didn't just have air superiority over Crimea, but Ukraine and Russia as well. No Russian aircraft or SAM even fired a shot. Buy those Italian Airmen a beer would ya?!! It was ridiculously lop-sided.

The LUA Missile Crisis

On the first play-through I honestly thought this was a bug. I thought the SSM units on the peninsula were destroyed, or at least severely damaged, but a huge missile barrage was launched from there. I completely underestimated it, didn't realize where it was headed, and my Aegis Ashore platform was eventually destroyed. I honestly think this is supposed to happen now. That platform in Romania actually does exist and it is a serious thorn in Russia's side. While it is located in Romania, (another is being built in Poland) it's actually there to protect the theater, particularly Turkey, from the threat of Russian ballistic missiles. Without the threat of those missiles Russia loses some military leverage against Turkey and they can't threaten to blow them to smithereens if they don't let the Black Sea Fleet through the Bosphorous Straits. I didn't give it much thought the second time through, until the missiles appeared again.

Over Turkey? Yeah, this is a random, scripted event, but I didn't know that at the time.

Again, I'm not that bright. My first thought was that Russia had snuck more Bears around the Eastern edge of the map. A Turkish land strike had just launched so I sent it's fighter escort to deal with the pesky things. It unloaded all it's missiles shot down many, but they kept coming (I didn't yet realize what this was and once again failed to check just how damn many of these missiles there were, at least 100 of them.) I diverted a CAP to them and again the unit ran out of missiles. Without using the range and bearing tool I took a glance at just what the target might be?

Oh boy is that British Guided Missile destroyer toast! After three flights of four fighters failed to stop this crazy flight of missiles nothing stood between them and that Destroyer. But, as they got closer I realized that wasn't the target. It was close, but I opened the range and bearing tool, drew a line along their bearing and nope, a longer line, and a longer line still and yep. They were targeted on the Aegis Ashore platform still 200 miles to the west.

Right over the top of a fully armed and ready guided missile destroyer who's Billion-Pound reason for existence is air defense.

Still it didn't get them all. It took another flight of 4 of those Raptors armed with 10 AMRAAMS to get all but one missile. That was eventually shot down by some passing aircraft with a spare missile.

I don't think you are actually supposed to defeat that attack. It was just sheer luck that all the forces aligned in just the right manner to pick off 100 or so cruise missiles. It might just break the scenario somehow. But it was kind of cool.

The America Disaster

OK, I got cocky. And Damnit I'm an American and I just couldn't let those Italians take all the credit right? So once again, in the early morning hours the Raptors went to hunt. By this time you could deliver an M-80 to a mailbox in Crimea without much problem so I had a straight shot north. The F-22 isn't modeled as having quite the passive sensor suite as the F-35. This is probably pretty accurate. It was immediately apparent that this wasn't going to be near as successful as The Italian Job. But there were a few contacts. To shoot, however I had to turn the radar on on the F-22's (there were 8 of them). Two 27's and a tanker were down, and another few aircraft were up north. I again closed to within range passive, went active and .... a barrage of missiles from empty space.

The Russians had stealth fighters waiting for me.

Three F-22s went down immediately, the remaining Raptor managed a mutual kill on the lead Su-57. One more Raptor died from the second flight of four as it struggled with the second stealth Russian, eventually killing it. Five F-22 stealth fighters gone in a single breath, it happened that fast.

Not knowing if there were any more hanging around, the Americans retreated, utterly defeated. The flight home took them right over the top of the aforementioned S-400 sight near an Eastern Russian airbase. Two more were lost.

Summary

It should come as no surprise that this was relatively easy. Even starting with half the aircraft in the original scenario the American, Turkish, Italian, and British F-35s were able to deliver ordinance mostly unhindered. None were lost. The American F-35As loaded with small diameter bombs were particularly effective in wearing down the Russian IADS. A flight of 4 carries 32 internally and that's not so much destruction as it is targets that easily depleted the SAM inventory. And those British Lightnings with their Brimstone missiles. Did I mention they were capable of quick turnaround? Bloody Marvelous!

In the end I did lose a total of 7 F-22's, mainly from boredom and being overly aggressive. The tankers I was shooting down had no fighters left to refuel. A flight of 4 Greek F-16s was lost to fuel starvation in spite of the fact that the skies were nearly blackened with tankers. I never did figure that out. Perhaps they were just all booked at the wrong moment, I blame the P-8s hunting subs in the south (three were killed) for taking all the gas. It would have been along the route for those F-16s.

It did prove to me that with the right strategy (heavy air support for the Ukranians right from the start) the scenario is easily winnable in it's original state. At least in the spirit of the conflict. That heavy blow to the Russian attack aircraft right at the start allowed them to go toe-to-toe with the Russians without giving up any more ground.

[mikkey]

Welcome aboard Cpt Black and thanks for nice AAR!

[Gunner98]

Capt Black

Glad you enjoyed the scenario. The missile barrage is from some Tu-160 Blackjacks on a mission over Iran, not Lua. It is defeatable in the original game doing what you did but adding in the Areigh Burke in a SAM trap.

Perhaps a balancing option for the up-gunning on the NATO side would be to upgun the Mig-31s to AA-13 capable and adding a few more S-400 systems in western Russia and Crimea.


Interesting readthrough of your version - thanks.


B

[Cpt Black]

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

Capt Black

Glad you enjoyed the scenario. The missile barrage is from some Tu-160 Blackjacks on a mission over Iran, not Lua. It is defeatable in the original game doing what you did but adding in the Areigh Burke in a SAM trap.

Perhaps a balancing option for the up-gunning on the NATO side would be to upgun the Mig-31s to AA-13 capable and adding a few more S-400 systems in western Russia and Crimea.


Interesting readthrough of your version - thanks.


B

I do intend to re-work the scenario to upgun the Soviet side and also pull a few more forces from the NATO side. They still have way too much combat power. The AA-13 would be a better challenge for NATO forces, but may just absolutely decimate the Ukranian Migs. Then again that would require diverting more air power from NATO to protect them so we'll see how it goes. I'm learning the finer points of the scenario editor and I'd love to come up with something that isn't just "more SAMS" to up the difficulty. S-400's themselves are not a great barrier unless you also put in "more SAMS" (short range) to protect the "more SAMS" (long range).

Is the Blackjack mission variable? (I guess I should just go look). The missiles were first picked up over Crimea the first play though. The fact that the British destroyer was in their path was just pure coincidence. I had no idea those missiles were going to appear over Turkey.


*edit* Actually the first thing I'm going to do is fix that LUA script. The intention is for all the Blackjacks and the Bears to fire at the site. The Bears don't fire at all, they wander over the Black Sea still fully loaded. If I can fix the Blackjacks to fire the missiles in a spread like they should (they do if they are added to the mission manually) it will become a LOT harder to defend against.

Then I have 15 fully loaded Bear bombers for other mayhem. [:D]

[LMychajluk]

Nice writeup, Cap. As a Ukrainian American, this is one of my favorite scenarios (along w/ Crimea River, which is another bear of a scenario...).

A few comments;

1) IMO, the scenario was originally written to reflect the state of the region c.2014. Ukraine is not a NATO member, and NATO 'interference' could touch off a major war, and F35s weren't available in any significant numbers. I tend to play this (and most) scenario per the 'orders' received in-game, and I've never had any authorization to provide CAP or ground strikes over mainland Ukraine (other than the 2 bridges), and many of the strike aircraft didn't have the range to get to Eastern Ukraine w/o putting tankers dangerously close to Russian forces anyway. This shows how NATO's hands were mostly tied at the time. Also, w/o the authorization, the Ukrainian air defenses will often be hostile to you, so you have to deal with them as well as the Russians. If you stick to the orders and concentrate on the forces around the Crimean peninsula, the Ukrainian forces in the NE seem to hold their own. Though I'd love to try a modernized (or hypothetical) version of this scenario if built (i.e., Ukraine, w/ NATO backing, evicts Russia from Crimea in 2020), using F-35Bs armed w/ Brimstone Mk II's (a future load-out for the British F35Bs) would not be historically accurate for 2014.

2) That Aegis Ashore installation is a sitting duck. I'm really surprised there are not more land-based air defenses in the area around such an important installation.

3) With IRST, the F35s definitely have a sensor advantage over the F22s, while the F22s have greater range and larger load-outs. Often I'll use F35s as armed AEW/ELINT/JAMMING aircraft, with F22s used more in CAP / Intercept roles. The load outs for the 2025 British F35Bs are pretty interesting, though. Definitely shows the versatility of the platform.

4) The Brimstone MkII, with its 37mi range, on a Reaper would also be an interesting load-out.

In my last play-though of this scenario I was able to achieve a Triumph. I did have a lot of reloads, because I was really trying to use it as a learning experience, playing with CAP and Intercept settings, EMCOM / Jamming, etc... It was a bear trying to keep all my ships afloat, though, and I did lose the F41 and the Gemlik took a hit. Almost all my EW / coastal radar sites were hit, incl. the Aegis Ashore site in Romania. (I find if I ignore the Vampires heading for the Aegis Ashore site, I have a LOT more SAMs/AAMs leftover to deal with threats to the ships.) I also pretty much ignored the action in Eastern Ukraine, and didn't initiate any hostilities with the Russians until they fired on one of the DDGs, after which I concentrated on the surface combatants and Crimea. Since you don't have many Anti-Ship load outs available, I tended to pummel the fleets with HARMs while hitting the radars and airfields in Crimea with JASSMs, then follow up with the Harpoons for the ships and Tomahawks from the Ohio for the Crimean targets.

I did suffer some aircraft losses, but not too bad, and I would say about 1/2 of those losses were due to refueling issues. I'm still trying to figure out why a flight will ignore their assigned tanker that's orbiting 100mi away to fly 400mi to another tanker, flying directly through enemy SAMs or fighters to get there, or circle a friendly airfield until they run out of gas and crash... Gotta work on that.