2.9.4. Ground Strike Bug?

[rkr1958]

MWiF Public Beta Version 2.9.4.

The following seems like a bug but I'm not sure. Germany used an o-chit w/Guderian. The 3-3 105 mm arty in the first and the 4-2 150 mm arty in the second are doubled during a ground strike. The 3-3 (105) only got one shot, instead of two, against the French Mot in the first and the 4-2 (150) only got one shot against the French XIII Inf corps in the second. Is this correct or is it a bug?

[rkr1958]

game turn.

[paulderynck]

That does appear to be a bug. Should get two rolls against each target (4 rolls for the 105 and 6 for the 150). Also looks like they need to go back to Accuracy School (or wait for better weather).

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

That does appear to be a bug. Should get two rolls against each target (4 rolls for the 105 and 6 for the 150). Also looks like they need to go back to Accuracy School (or wait for better weather).

I'm making actual rolls and entering the results. The last roll for both ground strikes "that didn't happen" are 1's, so that does salvage the ground strikes a bit. Though, the chance of not rolling a 1 or 2 (which was needed to disorganize) on the 13 die rolls shown is 5.5%.

[Centuur]

MWIF only gives a second die roll for the first unit attacked during ground strikes... It's a bug...

[paulderynck]

2 rolls each, hitting on 1 or 2 against 2 units:
miss completely: 41%, hit 1: 46%, hit 2: 13%

2 rolls each, hitting on 1 or 2 against 3 units:
miss completely: 26.2%, hit 1: 44.2%, hit 2: 24.9%, hit 3: 4.7%

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

2 rolls each, hitting on 1 or 2 against 2 units:
miss completely: 41%, hit 1: 46%, hit 2: 13%

2 rolls each, hitting on 1 or 2 against 3 units:
miss completely: 26.2%, hit 1: 44.2%, hit 2: 24.9%, hit 3: 4.7%

Agree.

But I had three rolls each (arty x 2 + air x 1), hitting on 1 or 2 against 5 targets over the two ground strikes. 3.52% that all 3 x 5 = 15 rolls miss. 48.8% that a given target was flipped. Let Pr(0 flipped) = P(0).

P(0) = 0.0352
P(1) = 0.1677
P(2) = 0.3196
P(3) = 0.3046
P(4) = 0.1452
P(5) = 0.0277

Interestingly I got the mode of the distribution (i.e., most likely value which is 2 flips with a probability of 0.3196) but only on the last two of the 15 rolls, which interestingly again, the MWiF ground strike bug failed to let me enter. The first 13 rolls were all misses which prior to making the first roll had a probability of 0.0550, or 5.5% chance, of occurring.

[paulderynck]

I get the same result if I include the plane.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

I get the same result if I include the plane.