Catfished! A grudge match - Cheesesteak (J) v. Aaffins (A) BTS

[aaffins]

I agreed to play BTS as the Allies without knowledge of the supercharged Japanese economy. I have played a 3+ month RA game as Japan and figured the economy would be similarly challenging. Oops. After reading the ‘new direction’ thread in the modding forum it makes sense why my opponent was so insistent on BTS instead of the other options I threw out. Oh, and what’s this? He’s also been following the Anachro BTS AAR that apparently touched off this squabble? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. As my lovely girlfriend explained: “He catfished you!”

I ran a test turn as Japan to get a sense of things and ran it through tracker, results are below. On the left is BTS, on the right is my RA game on March 16, 1942.

The Oil production in RA was already pretty forgiving, that’s been discussed a lot in comparison to stock. What made actually running the RA economy tough (at least to me, I think I’m decent at this stuff, but by no means an expert) was that importing enough to make up the deficit of resources took a big percentage of the merchant marine and, in turn, required a lot of fuel. And not having enough resources meant major HI sites not producing, which obviously is a huge problem. With the added Home Islands resource production in BTS that’s not an issue.

[aaffins]

Backstory

So, you might be asking, why would agree to a game where you feel your opponent has been deceptive? Well the fact of the matter is I’ve wanted to get a second game going for a while and playing Cheesesteak (hereafter VAC for convenience) is entertaining as hell and challenging, not to mention I have some pride to recover, see below. The game we’re playing against Yamaguchi is enjoyable, but it’s kind of becoming a stalemate and we’re only in May of ‘42. In fairness, I probably would have agreed even with full knowledge of BTS, I’m just annoyed by the sneakiness, as if I wouldn’t do my homework by reading up on BTS. At the end of the day I’m still the Allies and there are some really nice things in this mod for them. I’ll just have to beat him the old fashioned way rather than waiting for him to crash his economy.

The Tale of the Tape

This is also a bit of a unique situation in that this will be the sixth time we’ve squared off in WITP:AE. We’re also quite good friends in real life, having known each other for 15+ years...my girlfriend and his wife are close friends, we play on several soccer teams together, etc. etc. PsyOps over dinner and drinks will be a thing in this game, although my plan is to steer clear of that as much as possible, I think it hurt me in our last game, I’m a poor liar and all my friends know this.

VAC has developed an extremely aggressive, nearly chaotic playstyle. However, make no mistake, he knows what he’s doing, I jokingly refer to him as the ‘AAR Librarian’ because he’s read a good amount of them; he knows what’s possible for most situations, what the optimal TF combos are, etc. I’m closer to the middle of the spectrum in terms of aggression v. caution. Here is a summary of our previous games, as our knowledge of each other’s tactics, strategic thinking and preferences will definitely influence this game.

Game 1 (c. 2010): Fins (J) v. VAC (A) Scen 2

VAC doesn’t really know what he’s doing at this point in his WITP career while I’ve been playing against the AI a bit and am generally more inclined towards strategy games. US CVs are sunk early and often. VAC learns his lessons and we decide to start a new game.

Game 2 (c. 2011): Fins (J) v. VAC (A) Scen 2

This game is much more competitive and goes well into 1942. The decisive moment occurs deep in the South Pacific as I capture the Cook and Austral Islands to essentially blockade Australia and New Zealand. I made it appear I was using some CVL/CVE for raiding enemy shipping, US CVs took the bait, IJN BBs came in at full speed and did heavy damage, KB showed up the next day and finished the job. Bulk of US CVs sunk, Aus/NZ cut off. Game over.

Game 3 (c. 2012): Fins (J) v. VAC (A) Scen 2

VAC took some time after the thrashing above (there was something about a girlfriend and maybe law school?) so I had begun another pair of PBEMs. Riding high after my previous successes (I was also thrashing my Allied opponent in the PBEM I was playing as Japan) I devised some overly complex strategy that was basically analogous to Operation Market-Garden on a grand scale. Meanwhile, VAC had apparently been studiously reading AARs on the forums and learned quite a bit. I had encountered several setbacks during the early stages which had multiple CVs in the yard for repairs. However, in slavish devotion to “the timetable” I sent off my Noumea invasion in March of ’42 with only 3 CVs for cover. I maintain I had some bad luck, but it might also be that my old tactics weren’t so effective against wise opposition. Anyway, end result was that the IJN was effectively neutered early in 1942 and that was the end of that game.

Game 4 (2014-2015) VAC (J) v. Fins (A) RA 3.0

After his comfortable win in Game 3 VAC was ready to take on the challenge of Japan, especially with the fun extras in the RA mod (as you can see from the date and version this was an early iteration). By this time I had learned the value/post-game fun of maintaining an AAR, although mine was really more of a journal, so I have some good info from this game. Frankly, reading it a few years later is painful. Absolute comedy of errors.

Check out these lowlights:
1. Allowed VAC to execute a textbook Mersing gambit and take Singapore quickly
2. Got Lexington caught in port at Sydney by the KB in late December of ’41
3. Allowed Christmas I. to fall to a sneak attack by an SNLF landed from surface raiders
4. Lost Saratoga trying to do something about it
5. Spent PPs trying to evac 4th Marines from PI, got it sunk
6. Lost Midway and Canton I. early in January of ‘42
7. Lost all 4 old RN BBs trying to stop an invasion of Burma
8. Lost the Hornet two days after she even got on the map to raiding IJN CVLs
9. By early April of ’42 I was down 3 USN CVs, 6 RN BBs and 2 USN BBs.
10. Lost Ceylon in July of ‘42

The main story of this game though was how effectively VAC was able to raid my reinforcement convoys, illustrative quote:

“4/6 - The CVs operating in EastPac cleand up 4 DD escorts from various TFs yesterday. I've now lost a whopping 27 DDs. That's probably bad. I have two extremely high value convoys in the area that I probably should have sent back to Hawaii a week ago, but it's too late for that now. They are hugging the map edge and hopefully you won't come that far. I have less valuable tanker convoy running about 100 nm to the west, if they get hit I'll probably have the two high value convoys go off map to Panama. Little gamey, but then again so is a map edge. Sidenote: I never thought I'd reach a point where the SE corner of the map came into play...wow.”

Aaaaand two days later VAC sank the bulk of both convoys plus a third carrying I Aus Corps troops in the IO.

So long story short, VAC beat the hell out of me to an absurd degree in this game – VP ratio was probably around 3.6:1 by mid-July of ’42, so Auto Vic was a serious possibility. But, as you might guess from raiding and capturing bases all over the map, he was putting a huge strain on the economy, and with all the aggressive moves he was making he did not clean up the DEI and PI very quickly. In July of ’42 he realized he had basically run the economy into the ground and, combined with some increasing real life obligations, it was time to call the game.

Game 5 (2019) Fins (J) v. VAC (A) RA 8.1

After a multi-year hiatus from the game (marriage, home ownership? pfft stupid distractions) the time finally came to do battle once more. My long term PBEM ending (found the first email from it while I was researching this, it started 2/7/12 and ran over 6 six years real time, into April of ’45 in game time) had given me some time off to recharge. We actually had been playing Hearts of Iron with another friend and realized it was just frustratingly oversimplified compared to WITP:AE, so another game began.

I’m somewhat at a loss for the right words to describe this game. The best I’m coming up with is ‘bloodletting’ because the combat was fast and furious. Frankly, it’s the kind of game I think the readers of this forum would have really enjoyed following. VAC defended aggressively on all fronts, early game surface warfare throughout the DEI was the norm. For my part, I decided the only way to expand at the rate I wanted was to split up the KB, so I was operating three carrier battle groups - high risk, high reward. The key battles were:
1. The scourges of the early game – the PoW and Boise – ran into a CV TF and sank CVL Shoho and severely damaged the BB Haruna in the DEI, but the planes flying that day hammered them. Boise sank but PoW somehow survived taking tons of ordinance. This was the topic of many discussions.
2. My Port Moresby invasion was turned away by some sacrificial ANZAC CLs
3. The main event was a Ceylon invasion, which kicked off on 2/23. There was a lot of heavy fighting in the skies and on the seas around Ceylon, with heavy losses in both directions. The worst part for me was losing CV Kaga while trying to provide close cover to an amphibious TF. I did get 2-3 RN BBs as consolation.

And then on March 16, 1942, VAC, apparently in some sort of drunken bout of paranoia changed his game password. And forgot it. And still can’t remember it. I win by default I guess? Overall this game wasn’t going great for me. With all the losses AV was not a realistic possibility. I probably would have gotten Ceylon wrapped up in a few weeks, but with the state my forces were in the planned push into SoPac (oh yeah, probably should have mentioned that this Ceylon deal was supposed to be an elaborate diversion) was likely either off or not going to be done with the benefit of the landing bonus. Ships sunk list accompanies this post. In addition both sides had shot down well over 500 aircraft, with over 2,700 total destroyed after exactly 100 turns.

Overall I guess I can claim to be 4-1 against VAC, but the reality is I have not really beaten him in nine years. Hopefully in this game we change that.

[Cheesesteak]

If “do you’re own research but here’s what I think it is” counts as catfishing, then give me pair of waders and point me to the river!

I’ll likely not have time to do an AAR for this match, so Canoerebel will be spared a Kelly’s Heroes reference.

Best of luck. Tune in for messy Japanese play, odd attacks, and a spirited Allied defense. We’ve got two replays in the bag and already I’ve lose ships galore. They’ll be eating sushi in San Fran when I’m done! *checks notes* they’ll be eating even more sushi. Ha-ha!

This will be a good read. Fins has the skill and forum advice on his side. I have a hyperdrive navy and a fridge full of beer.

VAC, signing off.

[aaffins]

Well that's cute. Don't let the self-deprecation fool you, guy is a shark.

Turn 1 key moves:
-Force Z runs hard South. Was tempted to try to interfere with a likely Mersing landing, but the likelihood of him covering with CVs is about 99% and I just can't handle losing capital ships on Turn 1 if I don't have to.
-Marblehead TF moves up the Borneo coast hoping to intercept landing in NE Borneo
-Chicago/Houston TF moves South into the Celebes Sea
-CVs loiter a bit north of Palmyra
-Scouting force maintains course towards Pago Pago

[aaffins]

Before we dive into Turn 1, a few bits that will help readers understand my strategic thinking.

1. As mentioned above, I consider VAC to be an extremely aggressive player, particularly tactically, 90th percentile or better in my estimation. With that in mind he almost assuredly has a major strategic objective in mind. He's always had a sort of fascination with India, I think that's a strong possibility. He's mused about a NoPac to Canada strategy to press on the US Pacific NW before as well.

2. As one might conclude from the descriptions of our previous clashes above, he seems to have an advantage on me in naval tactics, so a theater where he can take advantage of his naval strength must also be considered.

3. I feel I am the stronger player in ground combat, I suspect he would agree. I think I have an advantage in China, particularly with stacking limits. For this reason, I'm also slightly less concerned about defending India than I might otherwise be.

4. With the relative ease of the Japanese economy in this mod, defending key industries will primarily take a back seat to defending points of strategic interest and high VP locations. We can certainly debate if that's a positive but that's the game.

With all of the above in mind the theater I have the most initial concern about is Australia. My first strategic decision is to ship the USAAF II Fighter Group there rather than transit to Capetown.

[aaffins]

And we're off with Turn 1 - Dec. 7, 1941

Overall I'm a bit surprised there wasn't more aggression on the first turn, but he certainly is laying down the groundwork for a rapid advance.

Malaysia/Borneo

The surface combat starts early with 4 BC's marauding through the Java Sea near Bandermasin clashing with four of my 4-stackers. We get lucky in the daytime and escape with only DD Whipple moderately damaged, in a separate action he sinks two Dutch MTBs. I believe he was on his way to cover the Singakawang landing (map below). Hopefully he used up a good amount of his main gun ammo.

He also lands at Sambas in NW Borneo. One suspects the objective here is to establish an airfield he can use to challenge any attempts by me at naval interdiction.

In Malaysia he makes large scale landings at Kota Bharu and Mersing, as one might expect. The Hiryu/Soryu group - KB-3 - is positioned 3 hexes of Mersing to provide cover. Their CAP destroys our feeble attacks by the RAF.

Concerned by the likelihood he will sail the carriers south, I order Force Z to continue moving away from the area.

Phillipines

Only landing is on the northern tip of Luzon at Laog.

100+ Netties hit the Manila port, sinking three SS and some other miscellaneous ships.

Another large raid puts Clark Field out of action with 93% runway damage. All B-17s are disabled so I ship them by rail to Manila and Batangas.

To try to offer some cover to the herd and keep an airfield open I put all my surviving P-40s on CAP over Manila.

Pearl Harbor

The PH raid is a bit different from what I'm used to. He effectively closes the airfield with 78% runway damage, but does relatively little damage to the warships. One BB - New Mexico - is completely unscathed and no cruisers or destroyers are hit. Concerned that he may got for a second strike I move every available fighter to Lahaina and order them to CAP. Only 84 airframes, many obsolete. Worrisome.

Elsewhere, the enemy lands at Miri and Guam.

[aaffins]

December 8, 1941

We score our first victory of the war, but the IJ warmachine grinds forward...

Malaysia/Borneo

Rather than aggressively push to the south, KB-3 maintains station, now just 2 hexes off Mersing. I presume they were primarily concerned with air defense as their only contribution was a sweep of Johore Baru, which netted a few RAF fighters. Believe we got a few zeroes in exchange.

Several IJN TFs bombard Mersing and the base falls to the IJA 5th Division and 21st Brigade

We're similarly ejected from Kota Bharu, albeit to a surprisingly small contingent of one Inf Regt and two Eng Regts.

Singakawang, Sambas and Miri fall on Borneo. We send a small Dutch TF north Ketapang hoping to catch the enemy invasion force off Singakawang since the BCs appear to have departed.

CL Marblehead and 5 DD's come around the NE cape of Borneo and attack the Miri invasion, sinking all six ships:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Miri at 64,87, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
F1M2 Pete: 5 destroyed

Japanese Ships
DMS W-4, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
PB Eiko Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
AV Sagara Maru, Shell hits 51, and is sunk
xAK Gosei Maru, Shell hits 29, and is sunk
xAK Meiten Maru, Shell hits 20, and is sunk
xAK Nojima Maru, Shell hits 31, and is sunk

Not game changing, but a nice get for us.

Force Z makes it out into open waters and turns south, moving down the west coast of Java.

Phillipines/Eastern DEI

We lose an AVD and PG to mines leaving Manila Bay, but otherwise not attacks on our fleeing ships as yet. That's likely to as carriers (KB-4?) appears to be taking up position in the Sulu Sea along with an IJN cruiser TF.

On Luzon Laog is occupied and the IJN flies large strikes on Manila. We have 44x P-40s up, but I left them to patrol at 20k feet to counter sweeps and the bombers go right under us, we only shoot down a few escorts. Should have had a multi-layered CAP up. Manila AF is at 92% runway damage so closed for at least a few days.

Further south, an enemy TF is moving west from Peleliu so we send the Chicago/Houston TF towards Manado to intercept a potential landing. CLV Charlotte TF is also moving north past Ambon.

Pacific

I breath a sigh of relief to see the KB retire east rather than launch a second strike on PH. They're six hexes west of Lihue, so they could reverse course. We leave the fighters up one more day to be safe.

Japanese capture Tarawa, probably a long shot since every Allied player does this, but I send the CA Lousiville to see if we can catch the enemy TF.

Enemy TF approaching New Ireland, reported as cruisers. The Port Moresby reinforcement convoy with two battalions is only 3 hexes out, but we keep the RAN cruisers in position to cover them, especially since we have no DD escorts. CLV Melbourne is making her way north.

[BBfanboy]

I have only been able to get Louisville to Tarawa in time to catch the invasion by sending it at full speed. Even then, the troops are all ashore and I just get some supply, maybe a DD and the CMs that are part of the landing force.

[HansBolter]

Looks like he didn't stick around for a second Pearl strike.

A quick note about what to do if he had.

The best defense against a second strike is to get every last ship disbanded into the port into task forces, even the heavily damaged ones. Even if you aren't contemplating a sortie for possible surface action against the KB.

Being in TFs means they can only be hit by Nav attack and a Port strike is going to whiff, doing damage only to the port facilities and not to your ships.

[Anachro]

Please update on your grudge match! Corona is here, use your newfound free time wisely!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Please update on your grudge match! Corona is here, use your newfound free time wisely!

+1! [8D]

[821Bobo]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Looks like he didn't stick around for a second Pearl strike.

A quick note about what to do if he had.

The best defense against a second strike is to get every last ship disbanded into the port into task forces, even the heavily damaged ones. Even if you aren't contemplating a sortie for possible surface action against the KB.

Being in TFs means they can only be hit by Nav attack and a Port strike is going to whiff, doing damage only to the port facilities and not to your ships.

Any sortie from PH can be countered by nav strike. If KB is set for nav strike as primary mission and port attack secondary then good luck with any sortie from PH.

[RangerJoe]

Somebody did sortie with the Arizona included. The KB was severely diminished.

[aaffins]

It's funny, with my newfound free time I've actually started a response twice in the last few days then gotten distracted. We are a couple months in and this has turned into a very interesting game, at least in my opinion. As you all probably deduced, I found updating 2 AARs and keeping up with two games a bit more than was manageable, but I'll get a larger update together for you all today or tomorrow.

[Bif1961]

Thanks for anything you can provide as each game is it's own learning experience and it is always good to see your view of your side of the contest.

[aaffins]

Alright, here is the Corona-fueled big update. I'm doing this based on combat reports, any interjection on my thinking or positions of ships is based on memory. If you want to just get the highlights read the following entries:
12/14/41
12/21/41
Running battle from 12/24-12/31
1/25/42
1/26/42
2/4/42
2/9/42

I'll follow this up with a post of where each theater stands and get a bit more in depth with how I'm preparing.

12/9/41 -
Because this is a grudge match, I used some pretty gamey (IMO) to sneak key ships out of Manila - having them disband in port after the movement phase each turn. This largely worked initially, I sent some of the low value stuff out so we wouldn't totally catch on. I also did some of this at Singapore, but not as much because of the ability to just max speed south.

He did a nice job of keeping Clark Field and Manila's airfields closed for the duration with raids from Takao.

A Kate squadron from KB-3 flew a strike on an HDML at Singapore without escort and suffered accordingly. A Val squadron attacking the herd south of Singapore suffered the same fate.

I tried to use the Houston/Chicago TF to intercept a landing near Ternate but got chased off by a CVE raid. CLV Charlotte flew our first naval airstrike of the war, on the enemy landing force as well, but was ineffectual.

He tried to drop paras on Johore Baru but failed.

With the Pearl strike gone my CVs begin moving back to Pearl to fill out their air groups and link up with Sara on the way from the West Coast. The big USN TF continued west toward Fiji.

12/10/41 -
Pearl strike not that gone? He hit Johnston I. (this is foreshadowing).

Air HQ deployed to Singakawang, so that puts a damper on the party time in the Java Sea.

He shows up at Rabaul with an IJA Brigade, too soon for me to do anything about it. Well played.

In this version of BTS the Allied player starts with a TF at Darwin loaded with two base forces and the FA Bns. I decide to commit these to PM to try to create a roadblock. I also move in forces from Townsville (not restricted in this mod) to reconstitute the 30th Aus Brig.

12/11/41 -
A USN SCTF takes out the SoPac surface raiders.

Ternate and Sorong fall. He has 2 CVLs and a CVE covering the Eastern DEI area.

KB-3 is dutifully on station off Mersing.

12/12/41 -
The Marblehead TF has been sneaking back from its raid on Miri on the first day, often holing up in port and low on gas. They stumble into 4 BCs (the IJN fast BBs are BCs in this mod) near Jolo but manage to sneak away with minimal damage. They then dodge several Netty raids. Marblehead is a star.

An SCTF takes out the NoPac surface raiders.

KB takes its show on the road to Wake I. and hammers it.

Rabaul falls, he has an Air HQ here.

12/13/41 -
The BCs from last night move SW and run into a Dutch TF centered on Eendracht (badass Dutch CL for those who haven't played BTS). The Dutch are less lucky, Eendracht has major damage and two DDs are lost.

Off the NE coast of New Guinea, 4 IJN CLs (CAs from stock but not in this mod!) clash with the CLV Melbourne TF. Adelaide takes heavy damage but we got some shots in at Furutake. Melbourne launches a strike after daybreak but no hits. Draw.

I've been playing games turning my CAP on and off at Singapore. It pays off today as he doesn't sweep and our boys savage KB-3's stike planes again. They did take out an MMS though, so there's that.

Hong Kong, Johore Baru, Manus, Hollandia, Pontianak, Buin, Brunei, Vigan and Kluong fall. We got about 300 AV into Singapore before he was able to cut it off.

12/14/41 -
First key moment in the game this turn, as he lands a naval guard unit at Johnston I. and takes the base. I think KB-1/2 was covering if I remember correctly.

Wake is also captured on an SNLF Division after heavy bombardment.

Elsehwere, CLV Charlotte attacks a couple IJN CAs in the Coral Sea, but no hits. The CLVs are a fun addition, but their attack groups are so tiny and so inexperienced they don't have a great deal of utility against warships. At least that's been my take so far. Still a fun and unique addition.

CL Boise is hit by 4 bombs from Kates (I guess the CVLs in the DEI are out of fish) and retires with heavy damage. Marblehead is of course much luckier but loses one of her DD escorts.

12/15/41 -
Baker I. is next on the CentPac hit list and falls. He also lands in force at Davao.

Charlotte clashes with two CLs near Port Moresby. The escorting CA Pensacola takes heavy damage. A-24s flying from PM hit the CLs as they leave for some light revenge. No sinkings but likely some decent Sys damage.

Kaifeng, Jesselton and Tabiteaua fall.

12/16/41 -
A theoretically even surface action in the eastern DEI doesn't work out for us as CL Nagara and friends sink the CL Tromp and DD Van Nes. CL Java is also damaged.

Davao falls.

12/17/41 -
I had been maneuvering a lot of the RN just West of Java, looking for the right opportunity to send them in against soft IJN targets. A Japanese sub puts a fish into the BB Valiant...oops.

A Dutch SCTF makes a run to Palembang and takes out a couple DMS trying to clear mines (this is foreshadowing again).

He finally lands at Manado.

Suchow falls to him, Ichang falls to us. Go team.

12/18/41 -
*FAF pours second bourbon and coke* The "fun" is coming, boys.

This was actually a quite turn though. He forget to change orders for the 34th Division and shock attacked across the river into Ichang. This was not foreshadowing.

Manado, Malacca and Georgetown fall.

12/19/41 -
One of the actually valuable Manila TFs gets taken out off Legaspi, Canopus, Gertrude Kellogg and Mindanao are sunk. (This is foreshadowing)

We pay a second visit to Palembang, this time bagging six loaded xAKs. Not sure what unit this was, but it got trashed. Palembang invasion is delayed.

Cabanatuan and Victoria Point fall.

He lands at Canton but doesn't bring enough, just one nav guard unit, and it takes heavy casualties.

12/20/41 -
CVs show up near Noumea and hit the airfield. Too soon for me to have reinforcements there.

I should update on what I've done with reinforcements early in the game.
-If you read the prelude to this you know how vital Christmas I. was in our last game, so that was a top priority. It got the Combat Engineer regt. and 2nd Marines ASAP.
-Decided to keep II Fighter Group and V Bomb Group in the Pacific
-Additional USMC Def Bns deployed to Pago Pago and Palmyra

I snuck an A-24 squadron on to Mindanao 'behind enemy lines' and hit CL Otonase twice.

He tries again at Canton with similar results.

Lae and Kudat fall.

12/21/41 -
Seminal event in the war to date, in my opinion. Singapore falls at an absurdly early date. Earliest I've ever seen. Aside from sending Force Z on a straight in on Day 1, I'm not sure what I could've done different. I got as many extra troops as I could in and he kept 2 CVs on station off Mersing the whole time. I feel like maybe I just didn't get a great dice roll, but here's the CR, perhaps you guys can tell better than me:

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 62327 troops, 546 guns, 204 vehicles, Assault Value = 1848

Defending force 30290 troops, 376 guns, 192 vehicles, Assault Value = 392

Japanese adjusted assault: 1628

Allied adjusted defense: 367

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Singapore !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Hudson I: 6 destroyed
Catalina I: 2 destroyed
Buffalo I: 7 destroyed
Buffalo PR.I: 1 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3455 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 121 disabled
Non Combat: 22 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 39 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
41250 casualties reported
Squads: 528 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1105 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 97 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 436 (436 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 240 (240 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 23

Assaulting units:
23rd Ind Engineer Regiment
21st Infantry Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
21st Division
55th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind Com Engineer Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
15th Ind Com Engineer Regiment
114th Infantry Regiment
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Engineer Regiment
5th Recon Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
5th Field Artillery Regiment
55th Const Co
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
5th Field Construction Battalion
54th Const Co
53rd Const Co
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
22nd JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
27th Australian Brigade
3rd Cavalry Regiment
2nd Gordons Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
SSVF Brigade
22nd Australian Brigade
2/17 Dogra Battalion
48th Gurkha Brigade
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
Malayan Air Wing
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
111th RAF Adv Base Force
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Base Force
III Indian Corps
113th RAF Adv Base Force
Malaya Army
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Fortress
224 Group RAF
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
272/273rd Bty 80th AT Gun Regiment

KB takes out 4 tankers I routed too close to Canton (let's be honest, they were coming from Oz and I forgot about them)

12/22/41 -
VAC wildly celebrates. Nothing of consequence happens.

Taiping falls.

12/23/41 -
KB 1/2 (?) begins hitting Canton...supplies are a problem.

KB-3 is free from guard duty, they sally forth into the Java Sea and hit two RN BBs, luckily just a few bombs. I forget exactly what I was trying to accomplish here. Assume stupidity.

Beaufort and Puerto Princesa fall.

12/24/41 -
We try to bushwack KB-3 with surface assets SE of Soerbaja. We miss. Repulse takes 3 torps and limps towards Broome (I forget what the original damage was but I guess we got stupidly lucky). PoW gets a couple bomb hits but nothing major. In our second TF CLs Java and Mauritius both take heavy damage; Marblehead is, of course, unscratched. I also launch a raid with our meager ASuW assets from Soerbaja. It does not penetrate the CAP.

Wucho, Alor Star and Nanyang fall.

12/25/41 -
IJN CVs continue to hit Canton. With only 100 strike planes flying I wonder if this is just KB-1 with 2 CVs. The possibility of a 4v2 carrier engagement becomes intriguing and I move the USN CVs towards the Line Islands.

Jolo and Samarinda fall, the later to paras and I lose a dozen planes, well played VAC.

12/26/41 -
I move PoW and friends to Darwin where they rendezous with USN ships from the Scouting Force - Constellation and Chesapeake. Most of my surface combat power is now assembled here. KB-3 approaches. The opportunity is at hand. We spring forth in 2 task forces to maximize intercept chances. Next turn is sure to be pivotal. Not like I have much choice, KB-2 is heading north from Noumea bound for the Torres Straight, so we're about to be trapped.

12/27/41 -
Somehow KB-3 avoid the big guns. BC Constellation is torpedoed in the ensuing raids, so I guess that's lucky. Now he's right in the midst of all this fire power. Surely he can't evade us again, all TFs converge!

Tsitatoso falls.

12/28/41 -
PT Boats from Horn I. engage KB-2, but no dice. At least we delayed him?

KB-3 dodges our battlewagons again. Apparently VAC used the devious sail to where they are strategy, assuming I would select intercept vectors that assumed HE would try to evade. Clever boy. In the ensuing raid Constellation is heavily damaged by another torpedo and Chesapeake gets one as well. PoW gets 3 fish in the attack on the British TF.

Palembang falls with hardly any damage to the facilities. Not my best week of WITP.

12/29/41 -
*Hour 3 of AAR writing, drink #3, seems legit*

I send the Houston/Chicago TF up the Australian coast from Cairns hoping to catch KB-2. We fail to intercept again and both get deep sixed.

To the SW of this action, the first theoretical carrier war takes place between CVE Hosho and CLV Melbourne. Not punches land.

Spoilt for targets, KB-3s atacks are somewhat ineffectual. Chesapeake is hit by 17 bombs but she's tough. The CA Indianapolis is torpedoed.

12/30/41 -
The big ships hide in little ports like Broome, Port Hedland and Derby and our propoganda machine laments the sinking of so many key ships. The other ships have to run towards Perth to keep up the ruse that he sunk the big ones. Sorry guys. A couple Brit DDs and the CA Salt Lake City are the sacrificial lambs.

Chengchow and Djambi fall.

12/31/41 -
KB-3 mops up 4 DDs and some other shipping trying to limp away off NW Oz.

He takes advantage of this dumpster fire to land troops at Ambon without interference.

Manila falls.

1/1/42 -
New Year's break. Everyone is hungover from the excitement of sinking Allied ships.

1/2/42 -
Ambon and Kwangchowan fall. KB-3 hits some smaller Dutch and British SCTFs I had been trying to sneak in behind to interdict a landing on Java. They are out of fish but still sink the CLs Danae, De Ruyter and Dragon.

1/3/42 -
He lands on New Caledonia. I have nothing in the area to resist. My CVs have been eyeing what I guess is KB-1 around Canton for the last week, but no Yorktown yet.

Batangas falls.

1/4/42 -
CA Louisville was eyeing a shot at that NC invasion...an IJN CVE thinks better of that and hits her with 3 bombs.

Koumac falls.

1/5/42 -
He lands on Java at Kalidjati

Altimonan falls.

1/6/42 -
CL Trenton intercepts a landing task force at Canton...nothing sunk but we seem to to disrupt things.

Paotow, Medan, Balikpapan and Kalidjati fall.

1/7-8/42 -
Nothing to see here. I have no more toys.

1/9/41 -
A bombardment TF destroys a pair of xAKs and PB at Johnston I. Resupply perhaps?

Tandjoenpinang, Tarakan and Medan fall.

1/10/42 -
Wenchow falls. VAC has learned much about China. He pooled his forces and got here early. I probably could have done more to pack the base, but giving up all those forts in rough terrain in Southern China proved too tempting. Lucena falls as well.

1/11/42 -
Nanyang falls...another one that's inevitable but his timeline here is a bit worrisome.

1/12/42 -
*This is as far as I made it before falling asleep*

Losing Singapore so early bites for the first time - KB-3 - shows up off Rangoon and he invades Port Blair. I had moved most of the RN's combat ships south hoping to get an opportunity to interdict in the DEI, so I have nothing significant to offer in resistance.

At Canton he tries to land a second nav guard unit, but fails. I flew in the infantry from a USMC Def. Bn. on PBYs from Pago Pago. He also sent KB-1 towards the Line I. - probably hoping to get lucky with a convoy. I took advantage by moving the USN CVEs in behind and they took out most of the invasion convoy, albeit after it unloaded the troops. There was very nearly a true carrier battle around Christmas I. but I ultimately decided the risk didn't justify the potential rewards.

Benkoelen, Tarakan, Iba and Langsa fall.

1/13/42 -
IJN CVs, KB-2, perhaps show up near Midway and take out AS Otus and DD Scout. They make it 3/4 of the way across the Pacific dodging Japanese forces and that happens. Sad.

I decide any defense of Burma is probably a waste of time and withdraw all forces.

Port Blair falls.

1/14/42 -
The supply situation at Canton remains critical. I'm using 2 squadrons of PBYs from Pago Pago to fly in a trickle, but my forces are in rough shape. CA Haguro visits and bombards.

We confirm it's KB-2 near Midway and they stumble into range with surprising light cap. Our Marines fighters get most of SBDs through, but our boys put up an 0 for 14 performance.

Chengchow falls.

1/15/42 -
Port Moresby is bombarded by CAs, causing significant damage.

He begins landing at Moulmein.

Kuching falls.

1/16/42 -
Marblehead is back! She and friends take out a six ship convoy near Ambon. Either empty or carrying supplies unfortunately.

Moulmein and Noumea fall.

1/17/42 -
Quiet

1/18/42 -
He lands at Tavoy and Semarang.

Loyang falls with heavy losses.

Tjilatjap and Semarang fall. Reduction of Batavia begins.

1/19/42 -
Kweilin falls. This part of China is not in good shape.

1/20/42 -
CL Helena bombards the Japanese troops at Canton I. doing major damage. I realize they're probably low on supply and could be easily eliminated. I have some small freighters trying to sneak in more than the PBYs can do. IJN seems to have lost interest here.

Sabang and Pegu fall.

1/21/42 -
We get some supplies into Canton I. and begin bombardement attacks, causing heavy casualties.

In China he's clearing the woods between Sian and Loyang.

1/22/42 -
Port Moresby is being swept daily by 40+ Zeroes.

KB-3 tries a raid towards Perth, but we had plenty of warning and everything of value is gone.

KB-1/2 hits Midway.

1/23/42 -
He attempts a landing at Midway but doesn't take the base. Our PT boats took out a fully loaded xAK before it could land which likely helped.

Batavia falls to a shock attack.

1/24/42 -
Midway gets a huge bombardment from a BC and CB.

The enemy troops at Canton I. are wiped out as a result of our bombardments.

Mergui falls.

1/25/42 -
Midway falls to a follow up invasion. A full scale raid by KB 1/2 probably helped.

Couple DDs take out a loaded TF near Vaitupu, probably a small IJN unit.

BBs hit Darwin, we saw them coming so the airfield is empty.

Rangoon, Koepang, Soerkarta and Ndeni also fall.

1/26/42 -
Quiet. I'm not sure exactly which turn it was but it was somewhere around this time I got SigInt that the Southern Army was prepping for Calcutta. Between VAC's penchant for India I mentioned in the open and the early fall of Singapore, I thought this was probably pretty good confirmation India would be an important target. Began adjusting reinforcements as best I could.

1/27/42 -
CL Honolulu and 4 DDs tangle with the CA Seiki and 3 DDs between Baker and Canton. We lose and Honolulu sinks.

4 BBs/BCs bombard PM again.

Liuchow falls.

1/28/42 -
CLV Charlotte tries to exact revenge on Seiki but the SBDs all miss.

Tjepoe and Makassar fall.

1/29/42 -
The USN CVs had moved west. Figured there wasn't much point tangling with KB 1/2. An I-boat launches 4 fish at Yorktown near NZ. None hit, but he knows they're in the neighborhood now. Apparently he didn't care?

We try to fly an AVG squadron into Nanning for an ambush, but I had them wait a turn before flying to recover fatigue. IJA bombers hit the field and many of the planes are damaged.

KB-3 arrives off Ceylon and attacks some empty shipping (although he came close to get a loaded convoy from Cape Town).

Cagayan and Singkep fall.

1/30/42 -
I vacillate between sending the CVs back towards Pearl or keeping them in the South Pacific. Ultimately decide to keep them between Oz and NZ. If he sends an understrength PM invasion I want to hit that.

Padang falls.

1/31/42 -
KB-3 flies a raid against Colombo's port, finding it empty except for mediocre xAKs.

Luganville falls.

2/1/42 -
For reasons known only to himself, VAC sees Ramree as a worthy target for a landing by an entire division...hmmmm.

We knock down a few Betties over Soerbaja, but the Dutch Air Force is not long for this war.

2/2/42 -
He's been using Betty raids as follow up to the PM bombardments, the airfield is essentially out of action. Supply situation is ok for now.

I had a SCTF of RN CLs sniffing around SW of Calcutta looking for a shot at an amphip TF. KB-3 veers north and hits them off Cox's Bazar. We hide in the port with moderate to heavy damage. He spends the next several days trying to figure out where they went but we eventually dash away to relative safety of Calcutta.

Pingisang, Madioen and Malaybalay fall.

His lead troops enter the Sian hex.

2/3/42 -
Merak and Prome fall. He appears to be inbound for somewhere on the coast south of Calcutta.

2/4/42 -
Landings at Chittagong as anticipated. KB-3 is in close attendance so no opportunity for aerial interdication and our only naval assets in theatre are out of action.

I have most of the RAF's Hurricanes deployed to Calcutta so it has a CAP that would be unpleasant for him to attack.

2/5/42 -
3 BCs pay a visit to PM.

Blenheims operating out of Burma get a few shots at unguarded shipping but no hits.

Chittagong falls, he's got an Inf Div and two Armored Regts plus lots of engineers, support and AA.

Toungoo and Malang also fall.

2/6/42 -
We have a few surviving P-40s from the Phillipines that have been hiding out on Mindanao. He probably assumed they were all destroyed. We send them back to Bataan where they take down a dozen unescorted Nells. We pulled the same strategy yesterday at Changsha which netted more than 30 bombers.

Lahat and Sawahloento fall.

2/7/42 -
Lots of raids, but nothing of note happens.

2/8/42 -
Action brewing in the Coral Sea...small IJN SCTF tangles with a destroyer raiding in the Solomons. Lots of shipping at Rabaul. Destroyers operating just south of New Britain.

Comilla falls as Japanese armor races inland.

2/8/42 -
2 BBs hit Colombo

Lots of enemy forces moving on PM. I think it's KB-4 (CVL/CVE mishmash) and at least 2 major surface groups. That smaller SCTF also charged right past New Caledonia and is now about halfway between Noumea and Brisbane.

In opposition I had a hybrid TF with 3 CLVs plus CAs and my main CVBG. Although tempted to take out the larger forces, the distances, lack of intel on where the main KB was, and risk of LBA from Rabaul convinced me to get the smaller prize so I order to CVs to take out the exposed CLs.

2/9/42 -
Result was a night action where my CVs actually got hit, but nothing major, 11 Sys to Big E. Once dawn came our dive bombers took out the CL Kinugasa and two DDs. CL Aoba seems to have escapted.

Soerbaja fell.

2/10/42 -
I thought he might try to close with KB-4 here, but he didn't. So getting a CL is not exactly a masterstroke but we seem to have convinced him to leave PM along at least for the moment.

The CLVs fly strikes against SCTFs he had probing towards Townsville, but hey are LRCAPed by KB-4 and don't work.

KB-1 (?) attacks a couple DDs back at Johnston. Also got intel a Hiryu class CV was moving to Truk. That could be KB-2 or a newly commissioned ship.

2/11/42 -
Everyone in the Coral Sea heads back to base. Much fuel was expended, only notable ship sunk the IJN CL. My plan is to refuel and rearm at Sydney then send my CVs around to Perth. I don't think he'll back to PM without the big guns. Maybe we can net a poorly protected invasion of NW Oz or even Cocos I.

Alarming as Midway, Johnston and Baker were, his lack of commitment to at least getting Canton done strongly suggests to me this is a distraction. This theory is also consistent if you consider our history - he was wildly successful in EastPac interdiction in our last game and must (rightly) assume that's a big concern for me. By going for those 'out there' bases he figures that will draw my attention from his main target: India.

Dacca and Toboali fall.

2/12-13/42 -
Quiet. Bandjermasin falls. With the IJN gone for the moment we get a few freighters into PM.

2/14/42 -
IJN CVE off Buna stops my resupply to PM.

He tries the first attack at Sian, 1:2 odds with forts reduced to 3. The air raids are taking a big toll in the open terrain. Matter of time but I don't think we should just give it to him.

Magwe falls.

2/15-16/42 -
Mop up operations: Oosthaven, Cotaboto, Meiktila, Talaud-Eilanden and Loemadjang fall.

I think he's bringing the big guns to PM now. Some kind of CV group is coming in from the East towards the Solomons, he's got a bunch at Rabaul too.

[aaffins]

Brief update on the 2/17 turn:

I've been operating PBYs out of Ocean and Nauru Islands for about a month, which has given nice coverage east of the Solomons. Looks like the fun is over as he took Nauru today.

The mess below is what's circling PM. In addition to the CV TF (KB-2 I'm guessing) the TF off Gasmata appears to be CVEs.

The others all seem to be combat TFs. I think maybe he's being overly cautious after my show of force 10 days ago, but the invasion must be out there somewhere.

[aaffins]

2/18/42 -
The inevitable air war over Calcutta begins; 15 A6M2s and 40 Ki-43-Ics sweep. We go about even with the Zekes and knock down Oscars at a 3:1 rate. Good start I suppose. I buy out more Hurricanes from the Allied A/C replacement system. On the ground we stand down the 2 Hurri squadrons that flew today and rotate in two fresh ones. I think ultimately he can play the attrition game, but for now our pools are good so we'll fight.

PM gets hammered by BCs and CAs again.

[aaffins]

2/19/20 -
He does land at Port Moresby - 1st Sasebo Assault Div and Karafuto Mixed Brigade. That'll give him about a 2:1 AV advantage with an edge in troop quality. Probably enough to take the base if he eliminate our supplies and disrupt our troops. Hopefully we can hold and force commitment of additional troops.

Quiet in India.

He takes Ocean I.

2/20/42 -
He shock attacks at Sian and pays for it with 5,700 casualties, but he gets forts down to Lvl 1.

KB-1 attacks a RAN SCTF I had on the edge of his range near PM. One DD damaged but should make it to Townsville.

[aaffins]

Here's my promised more in depth post of my disposition:

Major Land Units

US Army
27th ID (Bought out)- En route to Australia via ship, passing Christmas I.
40th ID, 41st ID and 87th Mtn Regt - Sent to Cape Town via Atlantic, will be in India by mid to late April
159th Mot Inf Regt - At Perth
138th Inf Regt - Pago Pago
Americal Division - One Regt at Suva, one at Brisbane, one arriving soon (in BTS 2 regiments arrive at Melbourne)

US Marines
2nd Marine Regt - Auckland
8th Marine Regt - Christmas I.
2nd USMC Tank - Suva

Australia
7th Division - India (still waiting for one Brig to arrive at Aden)
6th Division - One brigade arrives at Adelaide in BTS, it's moving to Perth. TBD if we send to India. Other 2 brigades arrive at Colombo.

British
18th Div - Calcutta
7th Arm Brig - Hyderabad

Aircraft
I elected to keep keep II US Fighter Command and V Bomb Group in the Pacific, which is looking like a bit of an error at this point.
All RAF units are of course in India