(I looked over your map, it is amazing to have so many naval units and Air units, I wonder how many operational points the air had and their strength/effectiveness. I have found Naval Units to have a more more difficult time with interceptions of pure transports... I do not rely on air or a navy though for interception. I would spend that cash on Garrison Units, Divs/Small Corps/Big Corps as far as I see as the best tactic to stop an Amphibious move)
I have had air interceptions without fail on Troop Transports without an Escort. With an escort I've endured far less. I would say in about 10 tests, with a CV on the receiving end it was nearly every time without the night movement feature. I would say that it's probable that with CVs/Various Bombers that any movement will be attacked but the issue here is with say Sea Lion is the Axis will just grind the UK Air Force and the UK Navy will not Kamikaze itself against the Luftwaffe in intercept or a blockade of the Channel.
The UK can be defended however, the failure is in the player. I played Almeron and he held off the Axis till 1941 for a possible Sea Lion so the player is likely not very great at The Battle of France. It was August before France was taken and my Air was battered as well as my land forces. I could take England in 1941 though... Though by then he could also have increased the size of his Army and had likely 2 Armor and how many Corp Air available for use? I would also risk that by the time I was done I would have to deal with the USA ... within several months and then the USSR the following Spring in '42.
Which isn't actually a more winning strategy unless it can be done cheaply. I will admit his English Isles were scantly covered but doing it was not the intuitive move for me instead I went for Norway/Greece and the Soviets. It paid more cash for less expenditure and the USA is not involved and the Soviets are still weak.
If I had gone all in on the British in September of '40 and the weather turned, what would of happened? Hmmm Big Risk if you get those rainy turns...
Not sure how strong amphibious actions are in a game of this "scale"... I will say that without it, the best Allied Player I've faced would of lost the Soviet Union with no recourse in both our games. SO, it's hard to judge!
P.S. Sea Lion isn't that grand, vs a Soviet Super Army/Airforce is it?
What you write is a direct contradiction of my experience of the game.
You have the example above where an infantry corps sailed past 6 fleets and 4 bombers without being interdicted.
Could be that fleets with CVs interdict more often, am not sure.
From what MM wrote on the AAR about the same game he estimates 30% chance of an intercept for each naval movement. So given there are 10 possible interceptors here that is around maybe 3-5% chance per stack intercepting.
I have played one game where I started with a '40 Sealion strategy from T1 (the AAR is there to look at). It came about after some discussion on the Forum that the Allies could stop Sealion easily enough. It was an easy win, Allies had NO chance of stopping it. Frankly I feel embarrassed to have played that way against an opponent who expected a full length and fair game and aside from the strole into the UK we were well matched. The rules have since been changed to make invasions more difficult but IMO a well planned Sealion is still going to work. Have just started another game as Axis and will not be trying that strategy, so in a sense that game is also compromised to some extent because my opponent now knows what I will not be doing.