Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically?

[Mathieas]

It seems that I can sit there and add units in different orders and get completely different ratios. I find myself adding and removing hunting for the largest ratio I can find. I have tried looking at the numbers that go into the math but why does the order I add them make any difference? Is this a bug? I feel very uneducated about this system, would anybody be willing to shed some light?

[Smidlee]

I think the ratio numbers are suppose to be a guess-estimate.

[Soar_Slitherine]

The game simulates a fresh round of combat to determine the odds every time the configuration changes. Because combat has a random element, the resulting estimate varies as well.

[Jdane]

There's more detail in a recent discussion about much the same topic (there), in case you would find that interesting.

[Pi2repsilon]

ORIGINAL: Soar_Slitherine

The game simulates a fresh round of combat to determine the odds every time the configuration changes. Because combat has a random element, the resulting estimate varies as well.

Which is why the estimate of odds is mostly useless for decision-making purposes, unless it is grossly one-sided.

From an in-universe perspective, it makes no sense at all that:

1) an estimate often indicates worse odds when adding more soldiers
2) you often get a different estimate if you ask for an estimate twice in a row with exactly the same troops involved