Campaign, tyronec (Axis) vs MSAG (Soviet)

[tyronec]

Server game.
Updating to new patches within a week of them coming out.
Full FoG.
AI assist OFF.
TB control OFF (I think TB control is of more benefit to Axis than the Soviets).

House rule - For GA and NP. No massed small mission sorties (they reduce the chance of interception which is unreasonable). If you specify the number of aircraft on an AD then it should be a minimum of 50. This is to stop a player using large numbers of small missions which in the game don’t get intercepted much.
2+ turns per week.
No para drops.

Temporary Motorisation. We started ff with no house rule on this, I used it for a couple of units on T1. Reflecting on it we decided to ban it going forwards, it does look like it could give an unreasonable advantage to Axis in '41 if used to excess.

[tyronec]

T01.
Fairly standard opening.
Hopefully all the pockets are secure, will find out soon.

Giving myself options to go North or East with AGN. Am not sure if using NP to isolate Ventspils is good or bad tactics, this way it cost 1AP and a few trucks - the NP way uses up supplies and possibly costs some of those valuable naval aircraft if it is not done just right.
AGC will push for either Smolensk or Gomel, or possibly both.
AGS do the L’Vov pocket. I made a poor attack on the border and got some combat delay so had to do it a different way to usual. The plan is for PG1 to go for Odessa and PG2 for Kiev. I prefer this opening to leaving Southern Front frozen. There is not much difference in units pocketed between the two openings. The ‘frozen’ method you get two hexes further East on T1 but this way can get a Panzer Corps down to Kishinev on T2 which gets 11th Army off the blocks better. If Axis can get to Nikolaev a turn earlier then I think it is worth it.

[tyronec]

Air base bombing went a bit wrong, I had set my escorts to 20% thinking that would be enough but had more intercepts than usual which cost a bit. I have T1 bombing before with not much escorts and it worked fine, not sure if there has been a change somewhere or it has just been a matter of luck. Looks like at least 50% is necessary, maybe 100%. Anyway, nearly all the fighters within range taken out in the air phase to leave the bombers for intercepts in the ground phase.

Had some strange intercepts during ground combat, lots of Axis fighters not shooting anything down. Happened on a few combats, have not seen this before but maybe just didn’t notice it. Some fighters transferred forwards during the to get more intercepts, only AGN I think is necessary.

Kills/losses for the turn are not great but hopefully it won’t matter too much.


Admin.
All about getting supplies to the forward combat units:
Combat units all set to 50% TOE.
OKH sent back to Berlin and loaded with most of the SUs, they are on 100% TOE and Refit.
FB-Bs sent to retrain.
The Stukas were not used for air base bombing and sent to the Reserve, LBs are good enough to do the job.
LBs sent back to Berlin so they don’t draw supplies next turn.
All Allied aircraft sent to the Reserve.
Will not be doing any GS or GA until there are surplus supplies at the front.

[RedJohn]

Personally I think unlocking the Southern Front isn't the play anymore, after I got leader chances to be fixed. Malinovsky as we all know starts on the Romanian border, and you can pretty much always catch him if the southern front is locked. Otherwise, the soviets need to pay AP to replace him.

I hope this game AGC's pocket isn't opened. It was unfortunate to see in your last AAR, and I think it disrupts the German tempo too much.

[MSAG]

As Tyronec was so kind to invite me to contribute to the AAR with him, I will try to bring the "other side" perspective.
We have agreed to post with 3 turns delay in order to limit the need to censor the posts.

I have to confess that the need to prepare the posts (we are in T4 now) helps me to organize my thoughts and record observations. Hope to have some positive impact on my game.

I am excited and nervous a little about playing against Tyronec. I am facing a very experienced and formidable opponent.

[tyronec]

I hope this game AGC's pocket isn't opened. It was unfortunate to see in your last AAR, and I think it disrupts the German tempo too much.

That is what I was hoping too, but hope or not one thing that for certain is that I will make a lot of mistakes.

[AlbertN]

MSAG is an excellent opponent - especially at the humane level! - that can churn turns out very fast!

It will be an interesting game on both ends, and I am sure Tyrone will be far more challenging as Axis player than I!

Best of luck to the both of you!

[MSAG]

HIGH LEVEL CONSIDERATIONS
The first decision I have to make is what kind of game I play – short or long (or perhaps in between). Short (lets say 30 turns – till the end of 1941) allows for “all out” defensive tactics. All resources to be committed as soon as possible, etc. If the game is to last longer it is advisable to plan for the numerous bottleneck crises (i.e. severe shortages) that arise during the long campaign (men, vehicles, tanks, middle artillery, light artillery, AT gums, pilots, planes … to name a few that I have identified in different periods till mid 1943). Planning for the bottlenecks involves using sparingly some HW (or human) categories, making reserves, optimizing usage, etc.
DECISION: I will play this game long. Lets see how we do.

SUMMER 41 STRATEGY:
1. Withdrawal.
As simple as this. For the first 18 turns NO position is impregnable. Building of almost any defence line, especially on the plains is practically suicidal. I expect to have to run especially in the south due to Axis mobile troops allocation.
2. Defending key positions.
Especially Urban. And railyards. They will be cut off and that all the defenders will be lost in the end (I have been neglecting this in my earlier games frankly. Now is seems to me one of the most efficient tools Soviet player has in 41). The reasons for doing so are:
a. It seems that if sufficiently heavy fighting is needed to capture the railyard hex, it causes 100% damage to the railyard, thus requiring a couple of turns to repair it and affecting the future Axis depot / supply hub capacity.
b. Urban area is the most “defender friendly” area there is. Due to the special rule regarding SU commitment in Urban hexes (it allows for up to 18/21 (instead of 6/9) SUs to commit). Soviets in 41 need every advantage they can get.
c. All that should give time! 2-3 turns + required for Axis troops concentration; troops that otherwise would have been used somewhere else. Without railroad hub and railyard capacity rest of the army will have to get by on truck delivered supplies.
In my previous games all top quality units were sent to Leningrad (as it is threatened first) during the first 4-6 turns, This time forming the fortresses takes priority.
3. Counterattacks.
Whenever possible. The thing is that I positively hate committing troops to the losing battles so my instinctive tactics is not to attack during the first summer. But I mustn’t forget that there is a human being on the other side – I need to try to throw him off his game, frustrate his plans and aim at his confidence.

[MSAG]

TURN 1

First observations:
- AGN ang AGC seem to have moved as expected, but with clear efficiency managed to reach a little further than typical, capturing Polotsk and firmly crossing Berezina River in two places
- AGS firmly captured the Lvov – Tarnopol - Proskurov line
- Interestingly Stanislav has been also captured. That move activated my S Front on T1 but at the same time created the pocket with 4 divisions AND brought a couple of PZ/MOT Divisions further South and closer to Odessa.
- All pockets seem to be tightly closed. I do not see any chance to open them.

Detailed Reports:
- Axis air offensive on June 22nd was very successful. 4600 planes lost and 1700 pilots KIA. Axis losses amount are below 150 in both categories.
- Ground losses: 260K men, 5500 guns and 2300 AFVs
- Additional 570K men, 8700 guns and 3000 AFVs are cut off – likely to be gone in the next 2-3 turns.
- I lost 3 good generals (Inf 6+) during the turn. Pavlov (no major surprise here), Bezguly and Tolbukhin. I will miss especially the last one.

Intelligence Reports:
Using the Battle Reports, detailed info on map and some remote parts of the Logistics Phase Report (Air Execution) some additional observations are made:
- My respect towards my Opponent grows – attacks were very efficient with almost all made by Infantry or Mot. Infantry. He is saving his Panzers
- I am impressed that Riga is captured by 1st Inf Division (!). (conclusion – this unit is probably motorized).
- A lot of Axis front line units are split to regiments. It is safe to do during the first 2-3 turns due limited Soviet counterattack abilities. If it becomes a habit though …. some interesting possibilities may arise later.
- 4th Panzer Group (AGN) is concentrated around Daugavpils. 6th PzDiv on the way to Pskov. Some elements moving east from there (Totenkopf MotDiv) (?)
- 2nd and 3rd Panzer Groups (AGC) captured Minsk and formed pockets.
- Significant rebalancing of the Axis Panzer forces is detected. Three Panzer Divisions (10th ,17th ,18th) and two Motorized Divisions (29th, Das Reich SS) have been moved to AGS area and have been confirmed south of the Pripyat Marches (DR south of Stanislav!). That means that at least 33% of the Pz/Mot troops of AGC have been relocated south.
- Luftwaffe. After the first turn the following air units relocations have been detected: A number of fighter units have moved east (see picture) – to Riga, Polotsk and around Minsk in the north and to Proskurov in the south. At the same time a lot (most?/all?) of bomber units are withdrawn and have moved to Germany.

First conclusions:
On the ground I am facing skilled, efficient, and thought through offensive. There seems to be some focus on Ukraine. For how long? At a very least I can expect aggressive attempts to surround and destroy my SW and S Fronts soon. Will I see less pressure on Leningrad / Moscow – it remains to be seen.
In the air – I think the movement of KG units suggests that I can expect very limited GA/GS activities in the summer ’41. Very efficient. Axis do not need it really at the beginning.

The front at the beginning of the turn. Identified new fighter bases highlighted.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: MSAG

HIGH LEVEL CONSIDERATIONS
The first decision I have to make is what kind of game I play – short or long (or perhaps in between). Short (lets say 30 turns – till the end of 1941) allows for “all out” defensive tactics. All resources to be committed as soon as possible, etc. If the game is to last longer it is advisable to plan for the numerous bottleneck crises (i.e. severe shortages) that arise during the long campaign (men, vehicles, tanks, middle artillery, light artillery, AT gums, pilots, planes … to name a few that I have identified in different periods till mid 1943). Planning for the bottlenecks involves using sparingly some HW (or human) categories, making reserves, optimizing usage, etc.
DECISION: I will play this game long. Lets see how we do.

SUMMER 41 STRATEGY:
1. Withdrawal.
As simple as this. For the first 18 turns NO position is impregnable. Building of almost any defence line, especially on the plains is practically suicidal. I expect to have to run especially in the south due to Axis mobile troops allocation.
2. Defending key positions.
Especially Urban. And railyards. They will be cut off and that all the defenders will be lost in the end (I have been neglecting this in my earlier games frankly. Now is seems to me one of the most efficient tools Soviet player has in 41). The reasons for doing so are:
a. It seems that if sufficiently heavy fighting is needed to capture the railyard hex, it causes 100% damage to the railyard, thus requiring a couple of turns to repair it and affecting the future Axis depot / supply hub capacity.
b. Urban area is the most “defender friendly” area there is. Due to the special rule regarding SU commitment in Urban hexes (it allows for up to 18/21 (instead of 6/9) SUs to commit). Soviets in 41 need every advantage they can get.
c. All that should give time! 2-3 turns + required for Axis troops concentration; troops that otherwise would have been used somewhere else. Without railroad hub and railyard capacity rest of the army will have to get by on truck delivered supplies.
In my previous games all top quality units were sent to Leningrad (as it is threatened first) during the first 4-6 turns, This time forming the fortresses takes priority.
3. Counterattacks.
Whenever possible. The thing is that I positively hate committing troops to the losing battles so my instinctive tactics is not to attack during the first summer. But I mustn’t forget that there is a human being on the other side – I need to try to throw him off his game, frustrate his plans and aim at his confidence.

quote

I like the writeup [&o]

[MSAG]

AIR WAR

The intelligence suggests that my Opponent plans to save the bombers and use fighters to ambush & bleed my airforce. I can probably expect him to be rather passive with respect to GA/GS missions. He will likely focus on (1) air defence & air space denial, (2) air transport of supplies (typical solution to enhance the supply reach of the ground forces) and (3) Naval Interdiction to cut off Odessa, Tallin and Sevastopol.
I will resist the temptation of Soviet player during the first turns to throw the masses of LBs to interdict the enemy from T1 (that is exactly what my Opponent prepared for). Losing couple thousands of crews during July/August to achieve some minor and often intangible results is not worth it if it deprives me of effective bombing force for a year or two.

At the beginning of the war I have pretty big air force that struggles with numerous challenges (outdated plane types, limited airfield capacity, qualitative pilot inferiority, weak leadership). I need to be realistic and specific with my objectives.
My concession for the long game strategy will be to build the reserve for 1942 (or 43). What is the most scarce soviet air force resource? Not planes. Not morale. It is experienced pilots. In my other H2H campaigns I am around turn 100 (Q2 1943) and the typical experience of the air regiment is around 50 (with many pilots in the 30s.) On T1 I have 100+ regiments with the average experience of 60!. So I will set aside of 40 F/FB regiments of 60+ pilots, experienced ones. To await newer equipment to close the quality gap.

My air war plan for now:
(1) Airspace denial. I would like to have around 100 fighters in every Front. Hoping to do some attrition to recon and transport missions nearby.
(2) LBs will focus on Axis supply network. Mainly ports and Railyards. Limited campaign at first. Only night bombing.
(3) I will set aside substantial forces to contest airspace over and provide sea transport to both Baltic and Black Sea ports.
(4) I will try to form a couple of formations of TAC bombers behind the frontline. Plan to bomb the motorized troops whenever they move forward and (hopefully) go out of the fighter cover.
(5) Transport groups, with escorts, are to be set to drop supplies to cut off troops if necessary.

AIR WAR EXECUTION
25 night railway/port attack missions executed. Riga, Minsk and a number of railyards in the south attacked. Intelligence reports reasonable success in Riga & negligible everywhere else.
Losses: 300 planes & 90 crews.

[MSAG]

GROUND WAR

Force management
During the first few turns I have the abundance of manpower and guns coupled with (relative) lack of tanks (comparing to TOE that is), low morale of many units, lack of vehicles (they need to be mobilized) and weak supply situation. I plan to:
(1) set TOE% of all on map units to 70% (to improve supply situation and to make sure that I do not send costly reinforcements to units that will be destroyed momentarily)
(2) Identify highest morale units (around 10-12) and move them to safety, set them into 100% refit and start preparing for sieges (Urban – Smolensk, Kiev, Z-town, D-town, Kharkov)
(3) Set aside the forces to man key cities (Odessa, Tallin, Pskov, Vitebsk, Gomel, etc.). Even if it means not manning the whole front line.
(4) Move all CUs to STAVKA. Use them sparingly during 1941. (with exception of infantry, Sec, Airborne and MG units – they should fight all the time, especially in fortresses).
(5) Try to keep the Mech and Tank divisions in the 2nd and 3rd line (when I have them) – to limit pocketing them and resulting vehicle losses.
(6) I plan to use my AP points on (in priority order) (1) building Depots behind the front, (2) perhaps City Fort or two (starting with Smolensk on T1), (3) improving command quality (leaders, mainly army ones) and (4) setting Assault Fronts.
(7) All Depots that can supply units will be set to priority 4. The rail network on T1 is strong and resilient (with many alternative routes). This approach expedites the supply delivery from National Sources out.

GROUND MOVEMENT
(1) Major fortresses to create – Smolensk, Kiev, Odessa – at least 3 divisions (good & rested ones) + reasonable leader
(2) Minor strongpoints – Pskov, Vitebsk, Mogilev, Gomel (2 RDs)
(3) In the south – except for Odessa and Kiev I will not contest cities east of lower Dnepr
(4) I will not try to defend the upper Dnepr line (hopeless cause & pocket creation invitation for Axis)
(5) Will start amassing forces in the woods north of Pskov and in the swamps east of Smolensk

Positions at the end of the turn. Please note the Depot locations (including quite a few new ones)

[Stamb]

Some said fortress are useless. My opponent made fortress in Smolensk with 5 (if I recall correctly) divisions. It had 200 CV. I had to bring a lot of ID in order to attack. After that I had to refit them for 2 turns as they were at 50-60 TOE. Well worth it in my opinion. Lets see how it works here.

[Beethoven1]

I like how tyronec and MSAG both have avatars of paintings of serious looking dudes with big scruffy beards, but they are looking in different directions. One looking to one direction, the other one looking the other way. Adds to the atmosphere somehow. The great clash of the painted bearded ones. Although I feel like they should be looking in the other directions, MSAG looking from the east towards the west, and tyronec looking from the west towards the east, but it is the opposite. Good luck to both of you!

[tyronec]

I like how tyronec and MSAG both have avatars of paintings of serious looking dudes with big scruffy beards, but they are looking in different directions. One looking to one direction, the other one looking the other way. Adds to the atmosphere somehow. The great clash of the painted bearded ones. Although I feel like they should be looking in the other directions, MSAG looking from the east towards the west, and tyronec looking from the west towards the east, but it is the opposite. Good luck to both of you!

My one is Hugh O'Neill, Earl of Tyrone. He is probably looking West because he can't bear to look East after the English beat him at the battle of Kinsale in 1601.

[MSAG]

I have hetman Stefan Czarniecki. One of the more successful generals of the XVII century Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. He participated in 27 large battles, mainly against Russia and Sweden. His (relatively minor) feat of arms in Denmark earned him a place in Polish national anthem.

[tyronec]

T02. After Recon.
All pockets have held, Soviets have mostly pulled back.

I overdid the recon and lost far too many aircraft - will have to tone it down next turn. Plus had some Ju88s flying by mistake which didn’t help.
VVS were doing some night city bombing, doesn’t appear to do much damage - am not sure if it is worth it or not. Think they were aiming to degrade depots. Had one intercept which cost more fighters than I would want, might try just putting the stab’s on D&N next turn. And get some AA to a few of the depots.

AS set up around Riga for the Soviet turn.

Not sure where to focus the attack yet, will see how the move develops but definitely push towards Pskov and Smolensk.

Postscript. As you can see at this stage I had not decided whether to go for Lenningrad or not - I never go for a strong AGN and was only considering it this game to do something different. However MSAG had assumed that would be my strategy - so much for out guessing the opponent.

[tyronec]

AGN
Was able to get across the river near Pskov without combat, so cross and clear the way for more Panzers to follow up. Attacked a tank division with Panzers by mistake, couldn’t see what it was, which cost a few Panzers.
I think it is good to get attacks in with the mobile units the first few turns as if you can trash enough units the Soviets will have more difficulty forming a strong line. Once you get into mid summer they have enough strength and it is less viable.
Pocket a couple of stacks, maybe two infantry divisions but am not sure. They can probably break the pocket but that should disrupt their defensive line for next turn.

Have pushed hard here and am a little exposed, hope my spearhead won’t get cut off. Am thinking to push for Lenningrad with progress going well so far. Have always felt this is a bad strategy for Axis, better to concentrate where there is not so much heavy terrain. However playing out the same plan every game is also not good strategy and maybe MSAG will not be expecting it.

[tyronec]

AGC
Assault Vitebsk with Panzers which I don’t like doing but it was all there was available.
Get up to Smolensk so that will threaten an assault for next turn.
Towards Gomel get across the river to an unprotected hex, there was an airborne brigade on the West bank that got routed away.
Again am quite exposed and am hoping the Soviets don’t have the troops in place to isolate the spearheads.

[tyronec]

AGS
In the north get up to Vinnetsa, routing a few units in the process. Pocket a few tank divisions that got left behind.
On the Romanian border just advance into contact. Have a Panzer Corps ready to strike so may get a pocket next turn if the Soviets don’t pull back from the Dnestr river line.