Guided Missile Cruiser Moskva

[elxaime]

This is being reported. Guided missile cruiser Moskva is the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. There was an earlier claim by Ukrainian government it had struck the vessel with a "Neptun" missile, and the Russian government has confirmed severe damage and crew has abandoned ship. I don't know enough about the alleged munitions or vessel itself as to whether this is plausible, but perhaps experts here can explain what may have happened. It looks like Moskva is a fairly old ship (keel laid 1976, but presumably upgraded a lot since then), while the "Neptun" (a Ukrainian designed version of the Russian KH-35U dating from around 2013) seems much more recent. I wonder if this has something to do with reports that Ukraine had recently been provided with foreign assistance that included "coastal defense drones."

https://www.military-today.com/missiles ... c1db59b9f9

https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russia ... 27b25eac5c

[Craigkn]

I am not a SWO expert, but got the pin at one point. The story that I am seeing on the internets is that a Bayraktar TB2 was used to 'distract' the Moskva while Neptune SSM's were launched from shore, in heavy seas/storm. Twitter seems to think that two hit. Who knows until the morning.

I have been working on a Black Sea scenario for weeks, and the Moskva was always a big issue for NATO forces. However, I had it grouped in a SAG with a few escorts (3 x Admiral Grigorovich FFG's) and it was a tough nut to crack, without saturating it with LRASM's. Now, looking at this, I am questioning everything. I personally feel that NATO could master the Crimean Peninsula with a half dozen F-35's at this point.

CMO models ideal, totally fused, weapons and sensors, but it seems that some adversaries are not at that level. I cant imagine a Tico or Burke going down like this. We need to wait until we learn more, but regardless of the details, this is a major blow to the Russian Navy.

[Dimitris]

CMO models ideal, totally fused, weapons and sensors, but it seems that some adversaries are not at that level. I cant imagine a Tico or Burke going down like this.

This is a frequent subject of discussion: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... ?p=4748144

[thewood1]

Plus the news was already posted here...

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... start=4760

[BDukes]

I have an unproven theory based on murky narratives on this

Something I noticed about the hypothesized strategy here and the hit on the SAAR some years ago. If the narratives are true, there seems to be something with the SAM fire control systems looking high at something and getting hit by something low. Wondering if the vertical arcs on certain FC systems have some play into this.

My other thought is jamming.

Mike

[thewood1]

One of the articles I posted stated that a drone was distracting the Moskva's radar coverage. Frankly, it can't be just that. That is a fairly modern air defense suite on the Moskva and should have still been able to cover low.

Now readiness and possible technical flaws against a new ASM missile like Neptun might also be a factor. You can see in one of the articles that the Moskva station patterns were sloppy.

[Gunner98]

Speculation on this one is running high.

I think a tweet thread by Navy General Board @thegeneralboard is perfect https://twitter.com/thegeneralboard/sta ... y2GfZdVnOQ

In it they Tweet:
In the span of thirty minutes, the cruiser is, depending on the source:
-Sunk
-Afire, proceeding to port
-Afire, Adrift
-Already has limped into port
-Afire, Under tow
-Fire contained, returning to port
-Fire contained, being towed to port.

HI Sutton at Covert shores has a good little video on the Ship https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmxJsRy4ty0&t=16s
And an article https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... a-pattern/
Some good analysis by a Prof at Kings Collage London: https://twitter.com/alessionaval/status ... y2GfZdVnOQ
And the latest from USNI: https://news.usni.org/2022/04/13/russia ... doned-ship

Whatever happened and however it happened - this is not a good turn of events for Russia or the BSF

[TempestII]

The Russians have now come out and admitted the CG has sunk. Unsurprisingly, they're keeping with the "ammunition fire" explanation.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -has-sunk/

[Rob322]

This will be an interesting case to study for years to come as we really don't have many examples of ASM's attacking live ships that can potentially (or actively) defend themselves. Sinking old frigates in FleetEx exercises doesn't count. What effects it might have on the game are too early to speculate. It seems like a missile strike caused critical damage and a magazine explosion, which of course will ruin a lot of warships' day. Still, it'll be interesting to see what happened. How many missiles were used in the attack? What countermeasures like chaff or jammers were employed? Did they attempt to use any of their SAM's or point defense cannon? Were any systems down or switched off? What was the EW environment like? Did weather play a factor? When did the Moskva last receive an update to it's radars or defensive systems? Was it incompetence on the part of the Russian crew, blind luck by the Ukrainian's or is shooting down ASM's harder than things might otherwise seem? It'll also be interesting to see if Moskva was being screened at all by any other ships and what (if any) action they took to try and prevent this.

[chrispman]

I cannot seem to find the Neptune missile in the database?

[thewood1]

It is and it isn't. Its based on the Kh-35 Uran. It has some slight differences. The original guidance system for the Russian KH-35(U) was built in Ukraine. So the Neptun uses an updated version. I don't think there are any major enhancements, just modernized with some more easily available components. They extended the range about 30km from 250km to 280km. A very good substitute is the Bal SSM facility. It has all the pieces you need and is in the Russian OOB. Its surface search radar is a little short in range, but you can swap that out if you're desperate.

The other thing to keep in mind is the Neptun and its truck launcher are very recent development. In fact, the Neptun was only in pre-production and 8-9 missiles were delivered by the end of 2021. A couple launchers were delivered early 2022, but had not been deployed in operations. Ukraine was struggling with the ship detection radar that would accompany the missile launchers. I assume the invasion drove Ukraine to get the limited number to the front line.

One of the better sources is http://www.military-today.com/missiles/neptun.htm
Jane's and Military Balance also have mentions of it. Jane's has detailed coverage of the Bal systems.

[Dimitris]

I cannot seem to find the Neptune missile in the database?

https://twitter.com/CommandDevTeam/stat ... 4761211905

[chrispman]

Thank you very much for the detailed information!

[BeirutDude]

So do I have to edit my Post-2022 scenarios to remove Moskva?????? :D

[HalfLifeExpert]

So do I have to edit my Post-2022 scenarios to remove Moskva?????? :D

Or you can just add the following to the descriptions:

"This scenario assumes that the Crew of the Moskva in April 2022 was doing their job properly"


It's very amusing that the Russians are trying to 'save face' by claiming their own ship malfunctioned rather than admit the Ukrainians pulled off a weapons hit.

[Sardaukar]

"That ship has sailed..."

[thewood1]

Still not conclusive, but closer.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/10930269 ... nk-ukraine

[thewood1]

I built a simple Moskva ambush scenario with two units on the Ukraine side: the Bal SSM unit and and the Bayraktar drone. That's the drone that was rumored to be flying around Snake Island just before the missiles hit. I had the 2019 version of the Moskva patrolling from Snake Island to 35 nm off Odessa. I chose that because of the some of the reported positions of the ship over the last couple of weeks.

Had the SSM and drone on an ASuW mission so that as soon as the drone found the Moskva it fired two missiles. If the Moskva was caught without radar on, it got hit by both missiles. There was heavy damage and it was 50/50 whether the fires and flooding eventually led to a sinking. If any search radar was on, two missiles couldn't get through. This was regardless of proficiency. At very low proficiency, one missile always got close, but it was eventually destroyed. With a radar on, it took at least eight missiles in a salvo for at least two to get through.

Based on CMO, the Moskva would have had to have its radars cold. I heard that there might have been up to three escorting frigates and got a couple names, but I'm not sure they were kept in a defensive formation that would have helped. I will play around with different escorts and such, but my simulated conclusion is that the Russians just plain weren't prepared for a missile attack in the open sea. There's a pretty good chance they didn't expect the Neptun system to be operational and a threat.

[Rob322]

I built a simple Moskva ambush scenario with two units on the Ukraine side: the Bal SSM unit and and the Bayraktar drone. That's the drone that was rumored to be flying around Snake Island just before the missiles hit. I had the 2019 version of the Moskva patrolling from Snake Island to 35 nm off Odessa. I chose that because of the some of the reported positions of the ship over the last couple of weeks.

Had the SSM and drone on an ASuW mission so that as soon as the drone found the Moskva it fired two missiles. If the Moskva was caught without radar on, it got hit by both missiles. There was heavy damage and it was 50/50 whether the fires and flooding eventually led to a sinking. If any search radar was on, two missiles couldn't get through. This was regardless of proficiency. At very low proficiency, one missile always got close, but it was eventually destroyed. With a radar on, it took at least eight missiles in a salvo for at least two to get through.

Based on CMO, the Moskva would have had to have its radars cold. I heard that there might have been up to three escorting frigates and got a couple names, but I'm not sure they were kept in a defensive formation that would have helped. I will play around with different escorts and such, but my simulated conclusion is that the Russians just plain weren't prepared for a missile attack in the open sea. There's a pretty good chance they didn't expect the Neptun system to be operational and a threat.

I think I read the Ukrainian's might've been employing some sort of jammer as well, so perhaps Moskva did have radars on but they were degraded.

I tend to suspect though your conclusion is correct. They may not have really expected to be under threat and therefore they weren't as ready as they should've been. Sounds like the story of the war for Russia so far.

[Twistedpretzel]

CMO models ideal, totally fused, weapons and sensors, but it seems that some adversaries are not at that level. I cant imagine a Tico or Burke going down like this.

This is a frequent subject of discussion: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... ?p=4748144

Interesting topic, and applicable.

It isn't reasonable to maintain a high state of alert for long durations. The human factor gets sloppy. I wonder how long Moskva had been operating in that area. Since the beginning? I can definitely understand if they started to get complacent which added to the woes leading to their sinking. Regarding the linked topic, in CMO most of the time long duration high op tempo isn't really going to rear its head. I think it is a non-issue for CMO and can be "gamed" by scenario developers to get the complacency effect if desired.

In this instance for example, if I wanted to simulate the complacency in this attack the scenario would start with the Moskva sinking and on fire.