Just How Accurate Are Russian Missiles?

[bsq]

An interesting piece I found recently on reflecting on the real world accuracy of many of the systems modelled in Command.

FXJudVLWAAE4xHi.jpg (484.86 KiB) Viewed 1658 times

It would explain why the Russians are categorically stating they do not target civillians, they just have no idea where the rockets will land and then fob off the complaints with the disingenous statements ignoring just how bad some of their weaponry is.

[SunlitZelkova]

There are certainly issues with accuracy, the Kh-22 strikes have shown that. In general quality may not be as high as Western systems due to funding issues.

But this graphic seems somewhat off. The Kh-555 is an air launched cruise missile, not a sea launched one. Perhaps it has been mistaken with the RK-55 in land attack mode? I don’t know if the RK-55 has one though.

I also don’t recall hearing reports of bombers over the Black Sea, only remaining in Russian airspace.

[bsq]

You're probably right on the Kh-555 and the Kh-22 was never really designed as a Land Attack weapon. I dont even think with some systems its quality, its age. Look at the Kh-22 again, liquid fueled, Tonka and RFNA (the same stuff as in the Nazi V2's), its well past it sell by date. Same with the SS-21's in terms of age.

However, as for the Black Sea. Look at the aviation charts, Simferpol and Rostov FIR's encompass a lot of the Black Sea and are 'policed' and claimed by Russia. Plus Kalibr comes in several flavours, so the sub launches and ship launches being reported will come from the Black Sea.

[bsq]

Tomahawks, Stormshadows and Scalps were used in Syria because someone used WMD. Most actually hit, there is a load of imagery from various 'neutral' sources that back that up or are you a denier that says that everyone faked these? Between they were all shot down (RS & SY side) and they almost all hit (CENTCOM stance) there is a middle ground, your statement is not a middle ground.

Point is, now the WMD option is off the table for the RF, they are using weapons that dont fail, they just dont hit what they aim at. Often, as in the case of the shopping mall, missing by almost 600 metres!

[bsq]

I said neutral sources, with no axe to grind, no political or doctrinal agenda. Your take and your 'evidence' is anything but neutral. There were an awful lot of holes in Shayrat AB, more than there should have been for your sources figures or the Russian/Syrian claims to be anywhere near correct. I take it you understand the concept of middle ground?

But the question still stands.

As they expend more and more of their arsenal, they prove time and time again, the weapons are not that accurate and they just dont care.

[BDukes]

I said neutral sources, with no axe to grind, no political or doctrinal agenda. Your take and your 'evidence' is anything but neutral. There were an awful lot of holes in Shayrat AB, more than there should have been for your sources figures or the Russian/Syrian claims to be anywhere near correct. I take it you understand the concept of middle ground?

But the question still stands.

As they expend more and more of their arsenal, they prove time and time again, the weapons are not that accurate and they just dont care.

Don't get sucked in by jeww. He's been at it for days at least.

There is a whole string of some hits here. This being said it's optically guided stuff we're seeing.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1543223365372084224
This one has been ID'd as KH-29TD
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1549117399466663936
https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1 ... 3274952704

Here is some imagery of Platan targeting which would be used for laser-guided class weapons. It can't do moving targets.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1 ... 0132865025

Definitely not enough yet to make a blanket statement but things are definitely swinging in the direction of not having advanced targeting pods and targeting etc. isn't helping What is odd is the few pods they do have (per internet) aren't showing up in wreckage so maybe not in production yet.

Mike

[c3k]

Going from memory, but a LARGE percentage of Russian missiles simply failed.

Their maintenance and production quality led to eye-opening rates of failure. Again, just memory, but on the order of 80%.

Whereas the West expects a high level of performance and a low expectation of some failures, the Russians have shown that they are in a world of their own when it comes to readiness.

[BDukes]

Going from memory, but a LARGE percentage of Russian missiles simply failed.

Their maintenance and production quality led to eye-opening rates of failure. Again, just memory, but on the order of 80%.

Whereas the West expects a high level of performance and a low expectation of some failures, the Russians have shown that they are in a world of their own when it comes to readiness.

Hopefully, somebody will collect data and write a peer-reviewed paper on that at some point. Narratives are pretty clear on reliability but hard data would be best.

The Ukrainian AF may or may not be giving the truth for lots of reasons. My sense though is they want more air defense equipment so they're gonna swing any reporting that way and rightfully so.

I really don't trust anything coming out of the Ru. The success videos show they're using a lot of optically guided stuff which is limited.

Mike

[thewood1]

Keep in mind that a lot of the guidance packages for Soviet and early post-Soviet missiles were built in Ukraine. In the early 2000s, they started moving some of that production back into Russia. But the impact was still being felt. The UK MoD briefings at one point called out low PGM and guidance pod inventory specifically as the reason you are seeing a lot more conventional bombing by Russia.

[bsq]

Hopefully, somebody will collect data and write a peer-reviewed paper on that at some point. Narratives are pretty clear on reliability but hard data would be best.

Mike dont hold your breath for any such paper. It will be at least 30 years before anything reliable is released, unless of course Russia completely folds and any new government decides to tell the truth.

The point of my statement is, that in earlier threads, it was stated that doctrine or just plain 'crap' targetting was the reason for all the misses etc. I am suggesting that the rockets just aren't as good as we (the west) gave them credit for and of course CMO has followed real life (which turned out to be Western scaremongering or Russian fanatasy). I cant even recreate a Kremenchuk 'event' within CMO using any of the tools at the disposal of the player/designer. Sorry if thats a bit cold and heartless to use as a case study, I guarantee I was as shocked and angered as much as the next person when that happened, but its the best example I have of how way out the accuracy is.

If I aim a missile at something and it has guidance, it falls within its stated CEP, give or take (2 CEP, perhaps 3 CEP). It does not miss by 20 CEP's (which statistically would indicate some kind of failure, but by God that missile looked like it was in control in its terminal dive as per it should have been if working normally + it overshot, not fell short...).

Rob

[BDukes]

Hopefully, somebody will collect data and write a peer-reviewed paper on that at some point. Narratives are pretty clear on reliability but hard data would be best.

Mike dont hold your breath for any such paper. It will be at least 30 years before anything reliable is released, unless of course Russia completely folds and any new government decides to tell the truth.

The point of my statement is, that in earlier threads, it was stated that doctrine or just plain 'crap' targetting was the reason for all the misses etc. I am suggesting that the rockets just aren't as good as we (the west) gave them credit for and of course CMO has followed real life (which turned out to be Western scaremongering or Russian fanatasy). I cant even recreate a Kremenchuk 'event' within CMO using any of the tools at the disposal of the player/designer. Sorry if thats a bit cold and heartless to use as a case study, I guarantee I was as shocked and angered as much as the next person when that happened, but its the best example I have of how way out the accuracy is.

If I aim a missile at something and it has guidance, it falls within its stated CEP, give or take (2 CEP, perhaps 3 CEP). It does not miss by 20 CEP's (which statistically would indicate some kind of failure, but by God that missile looked like it was in control in its terminal dive as per it should have been if working normally + it overshot, not fell short...).

Rob

Haha. Yeah it'll take some time.

My hang up is they seem to be relying heavily on optically guided weapons with less capable avionics (TV site much different than modern IR, multispectral etc). They just don't have access to the components to do it.

Not sure how you could impact CEP other than maybe a lua routine to percent % to a new target. That would be very sketchy approach..

Mike

[BDukes]

KH-59 too. Terminal guidance optical TV

https://twitter.com/JosephHDempsey/stat ... 2853459969

M

[bsq]

My hang up is they seem to be relying heavily on optically guided weapons with less capable avionics (TV site much different than modern IR, multispectral etc). They just don't have access to the components to do it.

Not sure how you could impact CEP other than maybe a lua routine to percent % to a new target. That would be very sketchy approach..

Mike

Only going to get worse. At the risk of offending another block of humantity, now that they are cut off from high end western electronics due to the sanctions, I wonder if the circuit boards from Shenyang will be like my LED bulbs from Shenyang?

Cheaper than German or Dutch bulbs, same quoted MTBF 30000 hours, reality less an a few 1000 hours, about the same as the 1930's design tradtional bulbs.

I might look LUA, only just getting to grips with it for laying down a series of reference points to waypoint TLAMs in the absence of any function I can see to automatically do this.

[Nikel]

I cant even recreate a Kremenchuk 'event' within CMO using any of the tools at the disposal of the player/designer.

Have you created a scenario for that "event"? X-22 missiles fired from Tu-22M3 bombers?

[BDukes]

Going from memory, but a LARGE percentage of Russian missiles simply failed.

Their maintenance and production quality led to eye-opening rates of failure. Again, just memory, but on the order of 80%.

Whereas the West expects a high level of performance and a low expectation of some failures, the Russians have shown that they are in a world of their own when it comes to readiness.

Hopefully, somebody will collect data and write a peer-reviewed paper on that at some point. Narratives are pretty clear on reliability but hard data would be best.

The Ukrainian AF may or may not be giving the truth for lots of reasons. My sense though is they want more air defense equipment so they're gonna swing any reporting that way and rightfully so.

I really don't trust anything coming out of the Ru. The success videos show they're using a lot of optically guided stuff which is limited.

Mike

Haha. Yeah component market is a mess worldwide now.

That other thing to be considered is if the Ukrainians or Russians (inadvertently) are jamming the datalinks between the optically guided weapons and aircraft. Who knows...


M

[bsq]

I cant even recreate a Kremenchuk 'event' within CMO using any of the tools at the disposal of the player/designer.

Have you created a scenario for that "event"? X-22 missiles fired from Tu-22M3 bombers?

Yep. Hits the tractor factory everytime. No damage to other units, no damage to the park, no damage to the mall. Its not a finished scenario, its just based on GE imagery and the use of KH-22 from TU-23M3 fired from the North. If I want to hit the building where the mall is, I have to target it.

[Nikel]

Will you upload it?

[bsq]

Wont be today, but over the next couple of days I probaly can

[Nikel]

OK, thanks in advance.

[Nikel]

Related with the discussion, in the net, there are comments of S-400 systems that are not able to stop HIMARS rockets, but should they be?

At least in this graphic, rockets do not appear. Has it been tested in CMO?




It is also said, that a russian S-34 was shot down by friendly fire, even from S-400? That is difficult to believe.

There are videos after the hitting and of the wreckage.