No Fly Zone

[FrancoisX5]

An article on actual no fly zone, from the ground:
https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/08/no-fly-zone.html

[bsq]

Mmm very one sided and not entirely accurate. There has been plenty of evidence of very expensive AD systems burning away nicely in cornfields have failed dismally to stop HIMARs and the like. Then there are the bridges, well defended if you believe what both sides say, but still with gaping holes in the reinforced concrete that no amount of patching is going to make them anywhere near as good as new.

The Ukrainians seem to be having a lot of success shooting down Russian AIrcraft and Missiles using what the Russians view as cast off's. Plenty of evidence out there to support that, but little by way of evidence to support the articles authors jaded viewpoint.

Finally the Ukrainian Air Force is still flying, conducting missions etc. Doesnt look much like a very well enforced No Fly Zone to me.

[FrancoisX5]

I guess that by focusing strictly on reports from Oryx and the Kiev Independent you would be correct.

Russians have shown that they could intercept a high rate of incoming artillery, including HIMARS, but no system is perfect.
Aircraft are downed mostly by manpads provided in huge numbers by the West, when they are not captured or destroyed before used.

I will not talk about the Ukrainian Air Force (Ghost of Kiev? ), basically absent except very rare sorties, usually unfortunates.

Not defending any side here, just acknowledging what works and lessons we could learn.

[bsq]

I think I am above looking at it from one side or another. Hence I read across the board reports. CNN, BBC, Sky, Russia Today,, Twitter, Reddit, Telegram and so on. Broad spectrum stuff, little of which backs up the view point of the author, nor your view that the Ukraine Air Force is 'missing in action'. It's alive and well and if the reports are accurate (and there is a lot of evidence to suggest they are) then they are picking their fights and there is little the Russians are able to do about that without risking their aircraft and A2/AD systems.

The Antonovskiy Bridge was hit again yesterday, this despite it being one of the most heavily defended places in the 'No Fly Zone' (see here for the videos https://twitter.com/shtirlitz53)

[Gunner98]

I think that the one thing that is verifiably evident is that both sides have an active and effective Info Ops campaign. The Ukrainian Info war is mostly effective in the west, which is quite beneficial to them. While the Russian Info Ops are focused on domestic, Eastern Europe and other audiences. Funny how leaked videos of presidents partying is such a surprise when that country has just made the Russian bear very angry...

Some thoughts on the air defenses despite of the propaganda:

-Beyond MANPADs, both sides are using essentially the same systems, doctrines and organizations. Russian stuff may be newer but the Ukrainians built a lot of that so I think it is a wash as to who's is better
-Since much of the air war seems to be low level or standoff missile based, those high level systems are probably doing their job effectively for both sides. Why the Russian's didn't eliminate or significantly degrade the Ukrainian IADS in the first days of the war will be debated for decades.
-MANPADs are hard to avoid and hard to counter - they both have a bunch of them. Ukrainians have a bunch of new ones. Most of the anecdotes and/or video is of Russian stuff getting shot down. A couple thoughts:
----The Russians are probably flying more and are therefore making more targets for the Ukrainians to shoot at - we don't see video of misses
----The effectiveness of a MANPADs depends largely on the quality of the soldier using it; training, motivation, skill, ease of use.
----Perhaps western MANPADs are more effective or easier to use by untrained troops ... but I am not ready to buy that one yet. However, Russian soldiers do not appear well motivated or particularly well trained.
-Ballistic missiles are hard to shoot down. Very hard, and this is easily testable in CMO
-Low flying CMs are hard to shoot down. Not as hard as a BM but amongst ground clutter, it is tricky.
-Shooting down artillery, mortars and unguided rockets is f...ing near impossible unless you have a specific setup and you are defending a point target (CRAM). I will spare you the ballistics lecture but...

So, I think my point is that stating that one side's AD is functioning and the others isn't is ... well, pointless. How do you measure that? Sure it is great for info-war bumph and news desk pontificators, but it doesn't actually mean anything.

Just $0.02 CAD worth from an old gunner

[SeaQueen]

That article is just... bad. Definitely a "glass half full" view of the Russian situation.

Right now, there is no "no fly zone" imposed by either side over Ukraine. The Ukrainians and the Russians are both flying plenty of sorties. Neither side has established air dominance. In Western doctrine, the term is "air parity." Neither side has a decisive advantage over the skies of Ukraine. The Russians are relying more on cruise missiles and unmanned systems to strike much beyond the FLOT, and the Ukrainians are using drones and HIMARS/GMLRS to achieve some deeper strikes.
There's also some indications on Twitter that with the introduction of HARM they may be flying more strike missions and are not quite so defensively postured. The Ukrainians retain a fair number of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters in spite of Russian SAMs and fighters. They've also retained a substantial number of their SA-10 systems through the conflict, which remain a threat to Russian aircraft, cruise, and ballistic missiles.