TOPs Dilemna- Analysis of a GC41 AAR

[M60A3TTS]

TOP (The Other Player) as Axis vs. HLYA as Soviets GC41
No Early End and other stuff you can read in his thread.

This will be an analysis of the game in progress as posted in the After Action Reports by HLYA.

First off, the unnamed Axis player, who we shall simply refer to as TOP from hereon certainly seems to be at the short end of a skills mismatch. But that is really neither here nor there as the purpose of this thread is to discuss what things HLYA is doing, not doing, and seeing if the strategy that is unfolding provides TOP with options, and if so what might they be.
To be clear, there is no expectation that if TOP reads this and executed some plan based on what is here, the results of their game would be appreciatively different. But perhaps the conversation alone might add value.

Also as to the why we just don’t discuss in HLYA’s thread, well no real need to pollute his thread with side chatter.

For purposes of this discussion, I am going to take a little liberty here and envision a situation where TOP has the benefit of not losing the campaign game in standard format due to a lack of VP at the date checks, hence no early end. But at the same time let’s just say that if TOP did achieve 750 Axis VP in 1942 during what would be normal game checks, the Axis would indeed be declared the winner. Obviously that is not what the actual conditions are here, so you just have to play along.

Let’s start.

What is the Soviet strategy thus far as we can best define it? A heavy defense of Moscow and Leningrad. Pskov, Tallinn, and Smolensk are conceded. There is an implied unwillingness for the Soviet to give up Rzhev and Kalinin. “The South” is defended by troops performing an Economy of Force-type mission. Add it all up, and we have a case where in a nutshell the Soviet is strong north of the Oka River and not as strong south of the Oka. The caveat here is TOP is still well west of Kaluga which is where the Oka starts and it would be desirable (not mandatory) to get at least that far in 1941 in time for winter. The VPs that the Soviets are focusing their defense on are again Leningrad for 36, Moscow for 66, Rzhev and Kalinin each for 10-16. Hence the total we will say that are highly protected are 122-134VPs.

Through Turn 11, Minsk, Riga, Lvov and Tallinn all fell as one would expect them to. Odessa, Kiev, Sevastopol, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Kursk all given up without a fight. Crimea almost cleared. Orel being given up and Stalino appears the Soviet will give up. Rostov is a maybe. Voronezh possible just due to the real lack of defenders in the area but that could always change. Also noted is TOP just lost Smolensk on turn 11. Not the first time I’ve seen a player fail to garrison an important city. Won’t be the last either. We’ll say TOP gets it back, but that’s a free 6VP gift to the Soviet.

So where does that leave things currently? Stay tuned for the next installment to find out!

[M60A3TTS]

Here is an update from Turn 12. Smolensk is re-taken by the Axis. Orel and Stalino taken with full time bonuses.



For purposes of this discussion I scratched 4 cities (Yaroslavl, Gorky, Kazan, Kuybyshev) off the list as possible candidates for capture as they really would be near-impossible to take against anyone other than a Soviet player who had no previous exposure at all to the game.

The Soviet player based on the defense around Voronezh seems to be willing to hand over, so let's give the Axis advanced credit for capture in 1941 with the full bonus.



As noted, this leaves 124 VPs needed to win this purely hypothetical situation. What are some possible options to get there?

[DeletedUser1769703214]

Voronezh should not fall. The Axis supply situation won't support that move . But please continue.

[M60A3TTS]

To go for the easiest points on the map, Rostov has to be at or near the top. A relatively easy 10 even without any time bonus.



With a lot of layered Soviet defenses identified north of the Oka, then the city of Tula south of that river and in more accessible terrain without the protection of a major river gives a guaranteed +6 bonus.



With 26 points added to the Axis VP count, that leaves 98 to gain a victory.

[M60A3TTS]

Voronezh should not fall. The Axis supply situation won't support that move . But please continue.

You have a perfectly valid point. But might I suggest that some could find the necessary logistics solution.

[DeletedUser1769703214]

Voronezh should not fall. The Axis supply situation won't support that move . But please continue.

You have a perfectly valid point. But might I suggest that some could find the necessary logistics solution.

100% correct

[K62_]

It looks like the only way to get that number of VPs is to seize Moscow and all the objectives in its area. That seems a little challenging at this point.

TOP would also be well advised to start thinking about winter. From that point of view, seizing the Voronezh-Rostov double railway could be a worthwhile objective. If the Axis can convert it, it supports a convenient winter line. But even just holding it until December puts a brake on Soviet logistics for a big section of the front, at least until they can convert it back.

[RedJohn]

I think you're also underestimating the potential to defend Rostov. It can be an extremely annoying city to take for the Axis if the Soviets decide to defend it. Rostov itself is a CV behemoth comparable, it seems, in CV with heavy urban hexes like Moscow and Leningrad. Just slap a fortified zone in there and watch as it refits to 20 CV.

[M60A3TTS]

I think you're also underestimating the potential to defend Rostov. It can be an extremely annoying city to take for the Axis if the Soviets decide to defend it. Rostov itself is a CV behemoth comparable, it seems, in CV with heavy urban hexes like Moscow and Leningrad. Just slap a fortified zone in there and watch as it refits to 20 CV.

Maybe the term that I used, "relatively easy" is a contradiction in terms in this instance. Relative to taking Saratov or Stalingrad it certainly is. Easy it may equally not be in the case of TOP vs. HLYA. But with some 60+ turns available to TOP, it is not near out of reach. Now if the game only goes another 10 turns the whole point is moot. We can only follow along here.

[M60A3TTS]

Let's have a look at Leningrad just because it's there and always 36VP if taken.



Pretty discouraging for TOP at first read.

Are there any positives?

Well, maybe the one advantage compared to the rest of the map is that Army Group North has far and away the best logistical situation when compared to Center and South. If it's done right of course. But getting 30-40k tons of supplies to Pskov with a Super Depot is not difficult and if Tallinn is receiving supplies over water and it is connected to the supply grid, the Axis player can make things work even with the terrible terrain. Building extra airfields around Pskov to place air transports is never a wasted effort.

Here is a view of the general area without units.



Since we don't know what CVs the Soviets have, nor what Axis troops are off the front lines there is no simple way to gauge what progress TOP could make here if any. There appears to be some Axis nibbling on the left-center portion of the line.

Strictly viewing this as a map exercise, part of the map is easier to get through than others. A good number of Axis players could get over the Luga and maybe TOP will not find it difficult. The issue is more that time is now working against the Axis here as by now you would want to be within a few hexes of Leningrad at most. Then it's back to building up logistics and determining if you can make it over the Neva before the rains arrive or at least cut off the land route into the city.