RESERVE activation MP calculation

[Wiedrock]

I struggled with assessing whether my RESERVE would be activated or not. Since there are (at least) 2 things to be considered

1. Is the CU even eligible/able to be comitted at all (MP needed)?
   -> attempt solving it in this Thread
2. What's it's chance to be comitted if 1. is "yes"?
   -> attempt started by spreadsheeting but far from being finished due to many involved factors

1.
To tackle the first question attached some results. If you find errors, let me know and if someone could come up with a "smarter" formula I am eager to see other thoughts (it's just a made up formula to reproduce the observed behaviour), maybe there are some hints in the Manual towards MPs needed which improve the Forumla/make it more clear/understandable which I missed.

Forumlas:

• NON-MOT (assumtion is that this includes Cavalry [not tested]):
  (Sum MP)*2+2=MPreserve
• MOTORIZED:
  ((Sum MP)+1)*2+4=MPreserve

Explanation attempt:

• Sum MP ... is the number of MP you would spend when entering the Hex of your attacking Unit (not the MP you would need to enter enemy Hex/attack the enemy unit!)
• *2 ... is a modifier I generally used caused by the assumtion that you'd make it a "2-way" thing, going there and back to start.
• (+1)*2 (MOT); +4 (MOT), +2 (NON-MOT) ... are random modifiers I used to make things add up, as stated.

Especially the randomly added modifiers may be contributed to other MP related things (EZOC/Enemy Hex/Attacking MP and so on) which my pattern recognition just wasn't able to put together at this point in a way which would make 100% sense. So the MOT could actually be a "+6" instead of a "(+1)*2+4". It's also possible that it is connected to the Hasty Attack MPs needed normally (3MOT vs 2NON-MOT) where then MOT just gets multiplied by 2....who knows. The Formula just evolved and I kept it as it growed like I finished it.

Further Notes:

• As stated it may be flawed, not 100% sure but the pattern proved correct in many tests. Only tested Live games Attack activation for the Screens.
• Testing in defense scenarios (Editor based) showed the same numbers.
• FortTell had some example of a Unit taking a weird way going a path which paid one more MP [due to enemy ZOC] through a clear Hex instead of going trhough a Light Forest Hex which would only have paid 2MP due to him making a "multi Hex attack". We couldn't figure out whether the relation between the CUs in the Multi-Hex-Attacks Hexes and the RESERVE unit caused the pathing or whether it was full RNG or some terrain type priority. So there's more to be found out.

[tyronec]

The formulae could be written as follows:

Forumlas:
NON-MOT (assumtion is that this includes Cavalry [not tested]):
(Sum MP)*2+2=MPreserve
MOTORIZED:
(Sum MP)*2+6=MPreserve

[Wiedrock]

The formulae could be written as follows:

Forumlas:
NON-MOT (assumtion is that this includes Cavalry [not tested]):
(Sum MP)*2+2=MPreserve
MOTORIZED:
(Sum MP)*2+6=MPreserve

Yep I guess that's the smartest variant (would be nice to know what the 6 is referring to/where it comes from.
That's what I did mean by:

So the MOT could actually be a "+6" instead of a "(+1)*2+4". It's also possible that it is connected to the Hasty Attack MPs needed normally (3MOT vs 2NON-MOT) where then MOT just gets multiplied by 2....who knows.

If one tests Cavalry and NON-MOT 0 or so we may get some additional hints....maybe after Christmas.

[jasonbroomer]

My observations from play are that the most important variables are whether a) the reserve unit moved at all and b) whether the HQ moved.

The manual suggests that the size of the unit testing for reserve is a factor, I'm not sure whether this is too significant.

Leader initiative should be important, but the above two factors seem to be more important. (Clearly sufficient MPs to reach the battle zone and be within activation range are mandatory - I presume)

[HardLuckYetAgain]

My observations from play are that the most important variables are whether a) the reserve unit moved at all and b) whether the HQ moved.

The manual suggests that the size of the unit testing for reserve is a factor, I'm not sure whether this is too significant.

Leader initiative should be important, but the above two factors seem to be more important. (Clearly sufficient MPs to reach the battle zone and be within activation range are mandatory - I presume)

You have to have the leader rating to send them

Fatigue
CPP
MP

is what I pay attention to over the many years I have put into the game, in that order. I am, nor have I ever been, a scholar of the rules. I do observe the results in game though and keep records of them

[tyronec]

You have to have the leader rating to send them

What do you mean by this ?
Is there a specific leader rating that is needed ?

[Wiedrock]

You have to have the leader rating to send them

What do you mean by this ?
Is there a specific leader rating that is needed ?

Initiative.

2. Initial Question
I tried getting an idea how high the chances are, not 100% if done correctly. That's why only Screenshot so far to not spread too many fake news. I only included the MP the unit has, MP Needs and Initiative Rating so far. And so in this example this Unit should have about 54% chance to be activated....may be not 100% correct, need to improve this sheet using proper RNG formulas after Christmas.
Then the manual states differencies between Unit Sizes and Command Modifier modifications. Especially the latter I am not 100% sure what is meant.

[Wiedrock]

Little Diagram created for another Thread regarding which Odds allow RESERVE activation in the first place.
Since there was/is/may be some confusion on what the manual means with "less than" and so on.

23.7. RESERVE COMBAT UNITS
Combat units in reserve mode may be committed to a nearby battle, both offensively
and defensively. The type of attack itself, whether hasty or deliberate, has no effect
on the commitment of units in reserve mode. Any Ready combat unit may be placed
into Reserve mode by selecting the Ready/Refit/Reserve toggle on the counter or the
combat unit detail window (35.2) until Reserve is displayed. Units that move, retreat
or rout are taken out of reserve mode.
Reserve units that are committed to combat do not move, but they must have the MPs
required to be expended in order to reach the battle hex. The MPs a unit has when it
ends its player turn are the MPs available for it to use for commitment as a defensive
reserve during the enemy player’s turn. Reserve units committed to support a cross
river attack will be subject to additional disruption (23.8.9).
During a battle all defensive reserve commitments are made first, and then followed
by offensive reserve commitments.
Errata 01.03.09
Reserve units committed to support a cross river attack are not subject to
additional disruption.
23.7.1. Reserve Unit Commitment
To be committed in defence, a unit in reserve mode must be within 6 hexes of the
battle hex. To be committed to an attack, a reserve unit must be within 3 hexes of the
battle hex.
A unit in reserve mode may never commit to a battle if it is adjacent to an enemy unit.
A unit in reserve mode will never commit into a battle if the initial combat value (CV)
odds ratio is over 10 to 1. A defending reserve unit will also never commit into a battle
if the odds are less than 1 to 4.
Errata 01.02.41
On map units in reserve mode will not commit in support of a hasty attack.
Units next to enemy amphibious HQ units are not eligible to be committed from
reserve.
If the above commitment pre-requisites are met, the unit must then check to see if it
has enough MPs to commit to the battle. If it does, then the unit must pass a leader
initiative roll to be committed to the battle. The unit must also pass a check based on
the MPs to be expended such that Die (MPs to be expended if committed) must be
less than or equal to Die (Units MPs).