Looking for feedback on a "limited world war" scenario idea

[Mgellis]

Looking for feedback on an idea...

I'm trying to figure out how you could have a conflict between NATO and the Soviet Union that does not turn into a full-scale war. How about this?

1. A border conflict or maritime dispute breaks out between a member of NATO and a member of the Warsaw Pact (Greece and Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and West Germany, Poland and Norway, etc.).

2. Big Brother Russia sends some forces to back up their ally. Now we've got, say, some Russian planes flying out of Bulgaria and helping against Greek forces on the border.

3. NATO backs up their ally. At this point, it is obvious to everyone (probably by the way troops are being moved, etc.) that no one was planning to invade the other side. No huge masses of soldiers are crossing borders. This is NOT a threat to the Soviet homeland and it doesn't really look like the Soviets are trying to invade the NATO ally (although there may have been a small land grab of a border region going on). At the same time, however, no one is willing to back down.

4. Someone sets up a blockade, no fly zone, etc. around one of the combatants. For example, maybe the Soviets park a couple of ships near Greece and say, "Until you stop shooting at Bulgaria, we're not going to let ships in or out of your ports!"

5. The other side (NATO in this example) runs the blockade and maybe some ships get sunk.

6. This sparks a wider naval war (submarines vs. convoys, etc.) in the region (but not globally) and in-theater fighting gets more serious.

And this is where I have my question...if it was obvious to both sides that neither superpower was trying to invade or obliterate the other, is it plausible this might remain limited to a specific geographic area? Athens and Sofia can get bombed, but not with nukes, and ships near Greek and Bulgarian ports might get sunk, but no one is going to start launching missiles at American or Soviet or British air bases or sending large numbers of troops across the German border or anything crazy like that! Could NATO and the Warsaw Pact agree to rules of engagement where as long as certain lines were not crossed, there would be no escalation. (Would this be what happened in Vietnam?) Or would it just go nuclear?

Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions? Am I missing anything obvious here about how such a war might be fought?

Thanks in advance.

[BobTank63]

To be honest, I'm not sure this could happen in Europe. Soviets had troops stationed throughout the WP, and the viewed the WP as a necessary buffer zone against an invasion from the West.

I could see this happening in either the Middle East or Asia. They are far enough away from the USSR heartland to be less of a threat.

Some ideas could be a Arab-Israeli war in the 80s with Soviet volunteers, a Soviet invasion of Iran during the Iranian revolution to take advantage of the chaos and instill a communist regime in the region, or a fight in SE Asia that has the US and Soviets get involved

In any of them, the key would be the US and Soviets keeping lines of communication open to ensure that this remains a limited conflict. Forces would have to be limited on both sides and nukes would probably be off limits.

[HalfLifeExpert]

I would categorize this a "possible- but VERY unlikely".

Even if the political leadership in Washington and Moscow want to keep things limited to the periphery and at sea, there's so many moving parts among the opposing Blocs that the danger for a skirmish breaking out are too high to really avoid.

The military leadership on each side, even if they accept a such a "limited war", would demand to the point of resignation that their frontline forces at and near the Iron Curtain be reinforced and alert for the other side making any surprise moves.

That said, I think a situation like this would be more plausible as part of the ongoing Cold War II, due to the fact that in Europe, the solidified frontline (i.e. the New Iron Curtain) has yet to be fully determined due to the ongoing Ukraine combined with the fact that the frontlines of the Asian theatre are predominantly maritime boundaries rather than land borders.