CV Predictor Tooltip Variance

[Wiedrock]

Tooltip CV vs Real CV
Attached some examples for the variance of the CV Predictor Tooltip. All tested Divisions were in contact with the enemy, so should be at least at Detection Level 5 or higher.
Tested Germans attacking Soviets.

Note that there is not way to increase the DL for those units with Recon Planes.

It looks to be ~+/- 25%-33% variance.

So a Division having 200CV defence may show (assuming the 25%):
high: ~250CV
low: ~150CV

[Wiedrock]

Going to Soviet side with additionally worse terrain/weather I encountered the following:

CV predictor Tooltip variance_Soviet.png (15.58 KiB) Viewed 324 times

Furthermore, in worse terrain/weather or because of the Divisional elements themselves the German Intel seems to also be much worse in certain situations, despite being in contact with the enemy, as you can see in the following:

predictor Leningrad.png (571.44 KiB) Viewed 324 times

The Predictor states 4.7, which should be (if exact 47) in combat. But it actually is 130. So the difference is -63.85% !!!
So a 2.21:1 Odds attack turns into an actual 98:130 = 1:1.32.

CV Leningrad example.png (700.98 KiB) Viewed 324 times

Note that this is a case of an adjacent Unit. It gets much worse with newly discovered/contacted units. If you find worse/larger miss-predictions for adjacent units, pls share them.

[Wiedrock]

I have added more Columns, the Fort or Terrain are not included in any calculations (yet), the hope is to see a pattern (in case one exists). There could be many more factors possible, like Supply situation or the elements ..."elements compare scout/recon values" is a loose quote from memory from manual(s)/Forum(s) I can give here...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Sertorius21]

Thanks for the computation, which leads to two sets of questions:

- how much does air recon improve the overall predictability if the starting point is adjacent units? In order to preserve my recon planes, I have elected not to use them against stacks that were clearly identified, and otherwise to seek 50+ air levels.

- The number of adjacent units seems to matter, would you confirm? I just concluded a turn where my air recon was a bit weak in one place (39) although it gave crucial information on number of units and fortification level. I brought three units next to it, one after the other, and had the feeling that there was an improvement in the overall detection level (I should have noted the CV values!).

[Wiedrock]

how much does air recon improve the overall predictability if the starting point is adjacent units? In order to preserve my recon planes, I have elected not to use them against stacks that were clearly identified, and otherwise to seek 50+ air levels.

From what I have tested, if you are adjacent to a unit during logistics, then the Recon will not cause any difference/bonus in the predicted CV (neither Recon UNIT, nor Recon Interdiction missions).
It is possible it changes something about the units which you "contact only during movement"...not sure.

- The number of adjacent units seems to matter, would you confirm? I just concluded a turn where my air recon was a bit weak in one place (39) although it gave crucial information on number of units and fortification level. I brought three units next to it, one after the other, and had the feeling that there was an improvement in the overall detection level (I should have noted the CV values!).

Confirm,...in Germany we answer "jein".
Certainly it's either Units adjacent, Elements inside Units and/or amount of Hexes occupied....there's so many variables possible. In WITE1 there was talks about elements., not surenif still the same.
When you move to reveal a new unit I have had cases with several Divisions and not getting any intel, sometimes it's weird. But then as you say, after some units nearby you may get some intel.

[Sertorius21]

Thanks, I had given up some time ago adding air recon when I started adjacent to the enemy, so will not change my routine.