The King of the Border 2019

[fitzpatv]

Situation

Border clashes with US-backed Colombia have prompted Venezuela to request support from Russia, offering the Caribbean island of Orchila as a base. Moscow has sent an expeditionary force. The US has affirmed its support for Colombia and put its forces in Panama and Puerto Rico on heightened alert. You can play as either side, but Russia is the default.

It seems that the border clash was largely spontaneous and that the Americans had over-reacted. However, the crisis then deepened when an over-zealous Flanker pilot downed US transport aircraft bound for Bogota, making hostilities probable.

The Russians hope to use submarines to sink the CVN Eisenhower, which is heading South to help the Colombians. They otherwise aim to protect their forces, especially the (unready) strategic bomber base at Orchila. It is desirable for them to take-out any and all US and Colombian naval and air forces and to support Venezuelan land operations.

The scenario does not use the Aircraft Damage rules.

Balance of Forces

Already 175nm NW of Orchila is the carrier Kuznetsov, escorted by three FFGs and a gun-armed corvette. Kuznetsov carries 8 Alamo-armed Flankers and 16 Fulcrums with a mixture of Adders and bombs. A screening force, consisting of three more frigates, is a further 143nm NW, with the fleet’s best SAMs (naval versions of the Growler). The task force is otherwise fairly weak in this department, some ships having Grisom MANPADs or nothing at all. Incredibly, the eight ASW choppers available don’t have a torpedo between them though, according to the database, their depth charges are almost as effective (which has to be wrong). As is typical of Russian warships, the force has a strong battery of Shipwreck, Sizzler and Switchblade anti-shipping missiles.

Around and ahead of the surface ships is a formidable force of submarines – no less than three Oscars with 24 Shipwrecks each and two Akulas. It is hoped that this will be enough to overwhelm the Eisenhower’s defences should it be possible to locate her and mount a co-ordinated attack.

At Orchila, Russia has assembled 8 Foxhounds with the latest Arrow missiles and 6 Flankers which carry a remarkable 10 Adders each (great until you lose one with unfired missiles). Two Il-96 tankers wait in support, but the pair of Blackjack bombers at the base are not yet operational. Usefully, Orchila is protected by a powerful double-battery of Growler SAMs, plus some Greyhounds for point-defence.

Russia also has the use of the airbase at La Chinita, near Maracaibo (and can re-base planes to other Venezuelan airports if needed). At La Chinita, there are 10 Fullback attack planes, which have been equipped as emergency fighters with Alamos, having no available strike weapons beyond light bombs. Ground support for Venezuela is mostly entrusted to 11 short-ranged Frogfeet, likewise bomb-armed. Three Mays can act as maritime patrol aircraft, but have no ASW weapons, though two can carry heavy loads of sonobuoys. Two Mainstays for AEW, five Il-96 tankers and three ELINT or EW planes round-out the air-group. The base is in a rather exposed position near the border and has one battery of AI-controlled Gladiator SAMs for defence, with limited ammo…

The Venezuelan Navy is not represented in the scenario (and neither is the Colombian). All Venezuelan aircraft are AI-controlled. They have 25 Flankers and 20 F-16s spread across several bases, the former sporting Alamos and Archers and the latter Sidewinders and similar Pythons. Venezuela also has a single Boeing tanker and a couple of low-grade AB.212 choppers, one of which actually has torpedoes!. Various Grizzly and Gladiator SAM sites ward the bases.

There are several groups of AI-controlled Venezuelan troops along the border, facing what are probably slightly larger numbers of US and Colombian ground forces.

Eisenhower is escorted by a Ticonderoga-class cruiser and three Arleigh Burke DDGs. Another Arleigh Burke guards a San Antonio-class landing ship and two Freedom-class littoral combat ships. Three SSNs screen these units.

On land, the Americans have a squadron of 10 F-35s on Puerto Rico and the same number of F-22s at Panama. In addition to Eisenhower’s large air wing, there is a substantial force of F-15s on Puerto Rico and a pair of B-1 bombers at Key West. Numerous F-16s are based in Colombia, supporting the South Americans’ large force of Kfirs (Israeli Mirage copies with decent weapons). Colombia also has plenty of light counter-insurgency aircraft for ground attacks. All of this is supported by tankers, Poseidons, Compass Call EW planes and some UAVs.

Assessment

Clearly, taking Uncle Sam on in his own backyard wasn’t the wisest thing Moscow could have done but, as commander on the spot, you don’t have any real say in these things and have to make the best of it.

The task force looked very vulnerable against what could potentially be thrown at it. Its main strength was the sheer weight of Shipwreck missiles it could potentially bring to bear and the best bet seemed to be to find and strike the Eisenhower with these as quickly as possible, then get back out of the way. The shorter-ranged anti-shipping missiles, particularly the Switchblades (80nm) might have to be kept back for other targets later.

Only limited air support was available to support the missile strike (initially eight Kryptons on the carrier Fulcrums). The land-based aircraft could do little beyond defending La Chinita and Orchila and maybe supporting the Venezuelans, who would do whatever the AI wanted them to.

ASW was a concern. Perhaps the depth charges were better than they looked, but it seemed wise to support the choppers with the sonobuoy-carrying Mays and use the Akulas to escort the surface ships (using sonar and Stallion ASW weapons) as and when they could be moved into position.

To begin-with, I ordered the three screening frigates to head back towards the Kuznetsov to combine defences.

Events

28/10/19 12:00Z (07:00L): The enemy didn’t waste time and simultaneously mounted a large strike on the border with mostly Colombian aircraft and a fighter sweep towards the Kuznetsov. Intercepting the latter cost the carrier four Fulcrums and the Americans three F-15s, mostly to SAMs. Over Venezuela, a Fullback shot down a Hawkeye, but was then lost to American F-16s. The attacking Colombians and Americans lost an F-16, 4 Kfirs and 7 Tucano COIN aircraft to other Fullbacks and Gladiators, while Venezuela lost a Flanker and F-16. Aircraft losses score 5VP for each side, but not always, either by design or because of missing triggers. You have to check Scoring and Losses and Expenditures to keep track, as you are not told anything beyond your own losses.

By now, it was pretty obvious that the Russian fleet would struggle to repel any serious attack, so I ordered it to pull back, initially under Orchila’s strong SAM cover.

Further ground attacks cost the Venezuelans a few APCs, Colombia 3 Tucanos and a Dragonfly light attack plane and Russia two more Fullbacks. A Frogfoot tried to bomb a coastal radar, but was shot down by missiles from an invisible assailant, probably an F-22.

This is one of those scenarios where it is hard to watch everything at once, so I didn’t see something sink the weak corvette Valeri Bykov (guns only, no SAMs or ASW) or a Helix being downed while trying to RTB. Chances are that the culprit was a stealthed F-35 using GBU-53s and AMRAAMs. Regardless, it cost me a painful 50VP.

13:00Z: More sweeps from the American fighters from Puerto Rico cost us a Helix and them two Eagles.
The Colombians continued to harass the Venezuelan ground forces, the COIN aircraft being covered by F-16s. Several Venezuelan aircraft, including their tanker, were lost in return for a few more Tucanos.

The Russians have a satellite and this told us roughly where the Eisenhower group was by picking-up emissions from her aircraft. Her wide-ranging CAP made it difficult to get a better fix. A Flanker sent to deal with a Poseidon was lost to a stealth fighter, which again struck without warning. There was an increasing feeling of being outnumbered and outmatched.

The three Oscars were trying to get into range of the enemy CVBG, with the Akula, Gepard, acting as a guardship for them, but an attack didn’t look feasible unless a recon asset could get them the data they needed.

14:00Z: Stocks of A2A missiles at La Chinita proved very limited and the Fullbacks could only load with a few, plus bombs, some being stuck with Archers only. The Gladiator battery was probably running low on ammo, too, though I couldn’t check. It made sense to take advantage of the respite from enemy raids to start moving support aircraft to other Venezuelan bases further East, where they would be less vulnerable.

The Americans left a Hercules tanker lying about off the Leeward Islands, so a Flanker shot it down...and scored nothing!

A suicidal Venezuelan Flanker flew out over the Caribbean and got an approximate fix on the Eisenhower before getting shot down. The Oscars weren’t in range, but it gave them a rendezvous point to aim for.

15:00Z: An F-35 overflew the three screening frigates and two patrolling Venezuelan F-16s with Sidewinders excelled themselves by actually shooting it down.

Some ground combat was happening around the border town of Cucuta, but losses scored nothing for either side, so it wasn’t worth risking a Frogfoot to help our allies.

A Fullback downed another Tucano near the border before the Colombians mounted another sweep towards Maracaibo, losing two Kfirs to Gladiators and a Tucano to the lone duty Fullback. It illustrated how outnumbered we were in this area.

Meanwhile, another Venezuelan Flanker committed suicide, probing the enemy CVBG.

16:00Z: About eight apparent strike aircraft appeared W of the screening frigates, only to turn away without firing, presumably hitting Bingo Fuel. Unfortunately, I scrambled my last two Adder-armed Fulcrums from the carrier to counter this threat and they were picked-off by F-35s, the AMRAAMs appearing without warning and giving them no chance. This was the first time I had really faced modern American stealth fighters and it was proving a chastening experience. An F-15 appeared, going after a retreating Tu-214 ELINT plane and May (which had been looking for the enemy carrier), flew over the fleet and was downed by a naval Grizzly.

The duty Fullback picked-off a Kfir as it RTB’d past La Chinita. Unfortunately, it timed its own RTB with the arrival of two more Kfirs heading for Maracaibo from the W. It slowed-down and let the Gladiators deal with them.

17:00Z: Our only Porubshchik EW plane was lost to an unseen assailant well over Venezuela but, like the Hercules, it scored nothing. It really seemed best to keep aircraft grounded unless absolutely necessary, as nowhere was safe from the stealth fighters. The F-35 then engaged two Venezuelan Flankers, got one by surprise but was taken-out by the other. Stealth aircraft score just 5VP like (most) everything else that flies.

Two F-15s approached the fleet and were swamped by Venezuelan F-16s.

Meanwhile, the Gladiators disposed of two more Kfirs. At +70, it was still a Minor Defeat which, considering the odds stacked against us, seemed harsh.

18:00Z: A Fullback, armed only with Archers and encumbered by bombs, went after what appeared to be two Tucanos. They turned-out to be Kfirs and each side lost a plane.

Two F-15s, supported by hidden F-35(s) headed for the fleet, which was now nearing Orchila. The Eagles rode their luck, but were downed by Growlers, while the F-35 clobbered an F-16, then RTB’d. Eight F/A-18s then approached from the W and were roughly-handled by some Venezuelan fighters, losing six of their number. The other two got in range to loose some HARMs, but the FFG Gorshkov’s naval Growlers stopped them. Even +100 was a Minor Defeat.

19:00Z: Several Kfirs approached Maracaibo, where we were now out of SAMs. Two Venezuelan fighters chased two over Colombia, but were ambushed, probably by an F-22, and lost. As a third Kfir overflew La Chinita, I sent a Fullback with Archers in pursuit. It did the job and turned for base, but not quickly enough to avoid becoming another victim for the Raptor.

20:00Z: Another lone F-15 approached Orchila, was missed three times by Growlers, downed an F-16 and was then swatted by a fourth SAM.

A strike on Josefa Camejo airport in NW Venezuela cost the Colombians another Kfir to Grizzly SAMs.

Yet more F-15s came at the fleet and one was destroyed by Venezuelan fighters.

The last Fullback with any Alamos sortied from Chinita and picked-off the other Kfir from the Camejo raid.

21:00Z: Three F/A-18s attacked the fleet and two were downed by carrier Flankers. The other got-off two HARMs, but they were stopped.

A Fullback bombed and destroyed a radar on Colombia’s Guajira peninsula, just to prove that it scored nothing. It also looked for any shipping offshore, but saw none. The Oscars were, more-or-less, in position now, but the Eisenhower was clearly well back, out of the way (sensibly enough). Risking moving the duty Mainstay further forward didn’t help, either.

22:00Z: The fleet had now joined-up off Orchila and had enough SAM cover to hold there for now. I’d re-based a May with sonobuoys to the island and tried launching it to seed the area, only for it to be caught in a repeating ‘Waiting for Available Taxiway’ loop. Investigation showed that the aircraft required 900-1,400m of runway/taxiway, whereas Orchila had 2,000m. Apparently, there was a problem with having too much runway. If this makes sense to anyone, please let this layman know!.

The Fullback that hit the radar made the mistake of trying to use its other bombs on some Colombian infantry, but was hit by AMRAAMs from an undetected fighter. Shouldn’t have attempted it.

23:00Z: A ten-plane F/A-18 strike came at the fleet. Fighters and SAMs bagged seven attackers and broke the raid up, but we lost a Foxhound and a 10-Adder Flanker to an undetected F-35. Buggily, we lost no VP for these planes and this seems to be general for aircraft based at Orchila. One of the surviving Chinita Fullbacks downed another Hornet as it RTB’d past the Venezuelan coast.

I started getting Fuse Exception pop-ups (which didn’t pause the game). I’ve heard about this, but don’t understand what they are. Perhaps someone could enlighten me?. Beyond being a mild nuisance, they had no real effect on play, despite recurring at intervals for the rest of the game.

Day 2

29/10/19 00:00Z: Another seven Hornets came-in and were slaughtered by CAP, despite the first Flanker to engage missing with its first five shots. Being in attack mode, the F/A-18s didn’t fire back… At +240, it was still a Minor Defeat.

Before being destroyed, a May (without sonobuoys) briefly located the American CVBG. Two ships, which I deemed to be Arleigh Burkes, were only 70nm away from the Oscars, screening a larger force of five ships some 170nm further WSW. This gave me a difficult decision to make, as the nearer force was in position to intercept missiles fired at the carrier and close enough to pose a threat to the SSGNs. Pragmatically, I had the Tver fire all 24 Shipwrecks at the former pair, which managed to stop the lot unscathed. I shrugged and had Omsk and Tomsk fire 24 at each ship. This did the job, though the targets proved to be one Arleigh Burke and a San Antonio-class landing ship, the latter scoring nothing and the former 50VP (same as the hapless Bykov). A number of missiles flew on towards the CVBG and at least caused it to use-up a good few SAMs. I doubt very much whether even 72 Shipwrecks could have gotten past a Ticonderoga, three Arleigh Burkes and the enhanced SAMs on the 2019-version Eisenhower. The Oscars turned and headed at Flank, as Deep as Possible, to positions E of Orchila, Gepard covering their retreat at Cruise. At +290, it was still a Minor Defeat.

A Foxhound with a single Adder left knocked-down another Hercules off the Leewards. This one DID appear to score 5VP. It was clear that the scoring schedule was seriously defective.

It really wasn’t wise to leave fighters on CAP!. A Flanker was suddenly hit by a stealth fighter, which then bagged the Foxhound as it returned from its encounter with the Hercules. The F-35 was briefly detected, but several SAMs missed it and it vanished again. Indeed, one of the more baleful effects of the things was to waste SAMs, which happened several more times before the end. It helped that I normally use no more than one missile per target.

This didn’t cost VP, however and the Venezuelans downed two more Colombian Kfirs to take the score to +305 and the heady heights of Average.

01:00Z: By now, all Venezuelan land units on the border had been lost. In all, Venezuela had taken 164 element losses and the US-Colombian forces, 105. As it was all AI-handled, it was out of my hands unless I wanted to mount airstrikes that would score me nothing and risk VP loss in the face of enemy air superiority.

02:00Z: We were JUST in Draw territory, but Venezuelan air losses could soon change that and they were good at getting themselves killed. I considered withdrawing the fleet from the Caribbean, but it didn’t really seem ethical. Besides, we still had plenty of SAMs and the best way to score points was to keep drawing-in enemy aircraft to be destroyed. However, we couldn’t sustain this approach indefinitely.

03:00Z: Another F-15 approached from Puerto Rico and was shot down at some cost in ammo. The inevitable reaction followed from the unseen F-35s and the Venezuelans lost two more F-16s.

04:00Z: The offending F-35 pushed its stealth too far by flying over the fleet and was shot down. A lone F/A-18 then came from the W and was also destroyed, making 25 Hornets so far.

05:00Z: Positioning the fleet close to Orchila was creating issues with ships in formation travelling on land and I had to detach a few to sort this out. At least none got stranded!.

A stealth fighter picked-off another Venezuelan F-16.

Two F-35s raided Orchila with GBU-31s, which were the first things we spotted. All missiles were stopped and we even downed two of the Lightnings. With the AI’s usual skill in ditching its aircraft, nine stealth fighters were down so far (out of 20, as I found-out later).

06:00Z: A lone Kfir bombed Maracaibo, did little damage and was destroyed by a chasing Fullback.

08:00Z: The hidden assassins killed another Venezuelan F-16.

Two Kfirs raided Josefa Camejo, to little effect. One was shot down by SAMs and the other by a Fullback on the way home (despite it missing with its first three shots).

10:00Z: Again, missiles appeared behind a Venezuelan F-16 WNW of Orchila, coming from the direction of the base with no radar detection – and they don’t miss.

Suddenly, the littoral combat ship Freedom appeared some considerable way W of Orchila, travelling at 35 knots. Quite what her skipper was thinking, I don’t know, but she was sunk by a volley of eight Sizzlers from the frigate Gorshkov (which I might have done better to conserve). Annoyingly, she scored nothing.

12:00Z: Another LCS appeared. This time, in view of her lack of ASW capability (and most other things), I left her to the Akula, Vepr, which put her away without undue fuss. I assume that this class of ship is designed to deal with enemies like Somali pirates and Iranian Toraghs. She had no real place in a battle like this one.

13:00Z: An F-35 attacked Orchila with GBU-31s, without success but avoiding retaliation.

14:00Z: The Eisenhower CVBG was detected by Mainstay 280-290nm W of Orchila. It seemed best to draw them into 200nm Sizzler range before engaging.

17:00Z: As the American CVBG closed, a Poseidon strayed over Chinita and fell to a Fullback.

19:00Z: We struck with ten Fulcrums carrying a variety of Kryptons and all remaining Shipwrecks and Sizzlers from the ships. Helped by the Americans initially having radars off, we sank the Ticonderoga CG and an Arleigh Burke for 50VP each. Another DDG and the carrier were hit several times. An F-35 chose that moment to shoot down the duty Mainstay over Venezuela and then nailed a Foxhound before being chased-off. It didn’t matter how good the Foxhound’s Arrow missiles were when it couldn’t see its enemy. The second Arleigh Burke then died of her wounds, taking the score to +510 which, incredibly, was still only Average.

Day 3

20/10/19 02:00Z: After much waiting, a second strike was launched on the Eisenhower group, using the ten Fulcrums. Somehow, the CVN had gotten back to 25 knots and could still operate a few aircraft. With the worst possible timing, an F-35 bounced the strike as the Fulcrums were about to fire and downed three with four shots. Then, the Krypton A missiles all missed due (I think) to the carrier’s jamming and, despite this, neither the Eisenhower nor the surviving Arleigh Burke were considered to be radiating, making the Krypton C ARMs useless. A UAV and Seahawk were shot down, but the strike was, otherwise, a fiasco.

Angrily, I sent-in the remaining four Fullbacks from Chinita with 24 light bombs each, while keeping three Fulcrums hanging around with their ARMs for when the enemy radars came-on. Chronically, another stealth fighter managed to ambush the Fullbacks, but lacked its colleague’s luck and only downed one. However, one Fullback flew high to avoid an AMRAAM and therefore missed its run on the DDG, having to switch to the carrier along with the other two. Three bombloads plastered Eisenhower’s deck, but she sailed suicidally on at 14 knots. Quite a lot of carrier aircraft were wrecked, but seemed to score no points. A Foxhound dealt with the second Seahawk from the Arleigh Burke.

04:00Z: As the enemy mindlessly closed, the FFG Gromkiy opened-up with eight Switchblades. At that moment, with their usual excruciating timing, an F-35 popped-up and fired at the fleet, but SAMs stopped its missiles. Both US ships were hit by the Switchblades and dropped to 7 knots.

05:00Z: The DDG (USS Nitze) died of her wounds but, at +580, the score remained stubbornly Average. Clearly, I needed to sink the carrier. The FFG Sovershennyy fired her eight Switchblades at Eisenhower and some hit, though most were spoofed by jamming. Having recovered to 17 knots, the carrier fell back to 12 but, recalling the Yamato’s final sortie, kept coming.

06:00Z: Vepr then closed and sank Eisenhower with torpedoes. Guess what, it scored NOTHING!! Some of her aircraft did, but only enough to take the score to +655, which was still Average.

12:00Z: Nothing else happened, so officially at least, it ended as a Draw. In truth, it was a thumping Russian victory.

Russia lost an FFL, 22 fighters/MRCAs, an attack plane, 3 support aircraft and 2 choppers.

Venezuela lost 24 MRCAs, a tanker plane, a radar and 164 ground elements.

The USA lost a CVN, CG, 4 DDGs, an LPD, 2 LCS, 12 stealth fighters, 67 other fighters/MRCAs, 20 support aircraft, 15 choppers, 2 UAVs and 55 ground elements.

Colombia lost 24 MRCAs, 16 light attack planes, a tanker plane, a radar and 50 ground elements.

Overall, this was an enjoyable and challenging scenario as the Russian side, despite the frustrations and broken scoring system.

I couldn’t help feeling that the US-Colombian side had a big advantage, though. Looking at their OOB later, I found that, as well as the two B-1s they never used, they had 304 TLAMs which would have done much to neutralise Orchila’s defences and make my position untenable. They also had 20 available stealth fighters, whereas the Russians had just 38 fighters (some initially on attack loadouts) and 10 Fullbacks (ditto) in total. Given two human players of similar ability (were that possible), the Americans would win every time.