The Korean Missile Crisis 2017

[fitzpatv]

Situation

This is a large scenario and takes a lot of analysis and setting-up (unless you’re the sort who just jumps in regardless).
There is evidence that North Korea might be about to actually use its nuclear weapons. Their ballistic-missile-carrying diesel sub Sinpo has slipped out of port and vanished, while two land-based nukes have been taken out of storage and their Nodong launchers have likewise disappeared. The DPRK has ignored a UN resolution calling for restraint in its nuclear activities (following a recent test), so the US, its regional allies and Russia have all decided that the time has come for pre-emptive action. For its part, China has intimated that it will turn a blind eye to any limited operation against North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.

You can play as either the US (with South Korea and an Australian sub) or as Russia, but the default is the States.

Forces

North Korea has a large, well-trained but obsolete air force, with a few dozen Fulcrums and Floggers stiffening a horde of MiG-21 variants. In the scenario, at least, they have no attack planes or bombers.

The DPRK Navy possesses three frigates with Switchblade missiles, some antique ASW corvettes armed with depth charges, a number of small diesel subs with surface-only torpedoes and the Sinpo, which is really rather a basic sub but carries two nukes with a range of 1,500nm. On land, they have a range of old SAMs of Soviet origin, notably three Gammon sites and one battalion of modern KN-06 weapons guarding the E coast. Their army has both conventional and nuclear Nodongs, believed to be in a search zone in the NE part of the country.

Off South Korea’s SE coast, the Americans have the CVN Ronald Reagan, escorted by two Ticonderoga CGs and two Arleigh Burke DDGs. The carrier has a large and comprehensive air wing, though the withdrawal of the Viking has left it dependent on relatively few Seahawk choppers for ASW cover.

The SSN Mississippi is stationed in the middle of the Sea of Japan and the Hampton is off the Tsugaru Straits between Honshu and Hokkaido. An Australian SSK, the Sheean, is loitering off North Korea’s main naval port at Mayang-do and, by herself, has enough Harpoons and Mk48 torpedoes to destroy the entire DPRK Navy.

Japan does not want to take part in offensive operations, but has sent the helicopter carrier Izumo into the Sinpo’s estimated vicinity, with four destroyers for escort. The task force is a capable ASW presence. Two Japanese diesel subs are also on the hunt for Sinpo.

The South Korean Air Force deploys a lot of F-16s and some F-15s, with a mixture of AMRAAMs of different models, AGM-88s and short-to-medium-ranged land strike weapons. Some of the F-16s have Sidewinders only and are best kept in reserve. An American U-2 is based near the border at Osan and is a useful tool for the Nodong search, so long as you keep it out of range of Gammons and Guidelines.

At Kadena on Okinawa, you have some Sentry AEW planes (one starts over South Korea), tankers, Rivet Joint ELINT planes and a single B-2 bomber with a powerful GBU-57 loadout which has the drawback of a 2nm range. I’ve had previous experience of losing a B-2 to North Korean Fishbeds in Chains of War, so resolved to use this asset only once total air superiority had been achieved.

Iwakuni Airbase, near Hiroshima houses some Poseidons with a mixture of ASW and strike weapons and a small squadron each of F-35s and F-22s. There’s a similar establishment at Misawa in Northern Honshu, with F-22s accompanied by tankers, Orions and an Aries ELINT plane. The F-22s are not optimally armed, carrying older versions of the AMRAAM and Sidewinder.

Izumo has a strong group of ASW choppers, which are AI-controlled, as are the Japanese patrol planes based at Hachinohe, near Misawa.

As for the Russians, they have two surface action groups, one consisting of a Slava, Sovremenny and some Buyan PCFGs and the other of two Udaloys. An Oscar II, two Akulas and a Kilo operate in support. On the airbases in the Russian Far East, they have a balanced and numerous force of Flankers, Foxhounds, Fullbacks, Fencers, Backfires, Blinders and support aircraft.

Many neutral ships are in the Sea of Japan and off the South Korean coast and there is a risk that the DPRK might attack these with subs and cost you victory points.

Assessment and Planning

While the Russians are expected to target nuclear power stations and research centres, caring little about Geneva Convention restrictions on bombing sources of hazardous materials or installations close to population centres, the US has resolved to concentrate on what can be done to limit North Korea’s nuclear programme with minimum risk of collateral damage. As well as the Sinpo and the Nodong launchers, you are tasked with destroying the sub’s pen at Mayang-do, the entrances to nuclear facilities at Kanggyesi and Yongbyon (burying, rather than destroying them), a nuclear power station under construction at Taechongun and the enemy Defence Command HQ and satellite command and control facilities near Pyongyang. Most of these are hardened, underground targets and will require your limited stock of penetrator warheads, some of which are short-ranged and hard to bring to bear.

Such would also be needed to achieve the secondary objective of closing airbase runways and taxiways, but the sheer number of these makes the task not worth the effort, in my opinion. This is even more the case where destroying naval docks (another secondary task) is concerned, as there are an awful lot of them, even if they don’t need special munitions.

Clearly, you need to use the time, before the Russians force your hand by attacking, to do recon and locate the Sinpo, Nodongs and those facilities which have not been pinpointed in advance (like the Defence Command Centre). Once hostilities start, it is estimated that it will take the North Koreans between 4-8 hours to get organised and launch their nukes, though exactly why this is so isn’t explained (nor are Pyongyang’s actual intentions).

The Sinpo and Nodongs have to be the priorities. Once these have been taken-out, you should have most of the 24-hour scenario to deal with the rest.

Strikes will be a lot easier if the KN-6 and the three Gammon sites are neutralised first. There are plenty of AGM-88s available and the abundance of TLAMs should work well against the Gammons which, like the older Guidelines, can’t engage low-flying missiles.

You have 36 penetrator warheads with any decent range, so they have to be used sparingly and at the right time.

The DPRK has a lot of radars, which can compensate for their fighters’ limited sensors. Most of these are vulnerable to TLAM attack, though some are well-guarded by swarms of fighters.

I needed to do a lot of work on the Reagan group’s SAMs, many of which start set to engage ballistic missiles when they can’t hit the sort the DPRK will use.

The two US SSNs were told to prioritise hunting the Sinpo. As the North Koreans have almost no ASW capability, Mississippi headed into the search zone deep and at Flank.

Sheean’s main value appeared to be persecuting the North Korean Navy and blockading Mayang-do.

For recon, it seemed best to use F-22s until the Gammons were sufficiently neutralised to make the skies safe for the U-2. By default, the stealth fighters approached North Korea with sensors off.

Events

28/2/17 08:00Z (17:00L): Numerous MPAs and vessels searched for the Sinpo, but found just a fish school in the opening hour.

An F-22 surveyed the Nodong Search Area and found a conventional one, plus five contacts that could have been either nuclear Nodongs or AA guns!. We needed to find the Sinpo before we could attack any of these.

There was a growing concern that the Russians might be on Weapons Free and attack US or Japanese subs.

09:00Z: No real progress. A Russian May took too close an interest in the vicinity of USS Hampton, so I had to move her out of the search zone and put her on TLAM duty. Similarly, it seemed wise to keep Mississippi outside the search zone, but I could do nothing about the risk to the two Japanese SSKs.

On the same lines, Japanese MPAs found what was clearly a Russian SSN and became obsessed with it, happily without attacking. I marked it as Friendly, but this probably made no difference. If only I could trust designers to put ‘allied or neutral’ AI units on Weapons Tight…

10:00Z: Just after the hour, the Russians violated North Korean airspace, mounting a heavy, escorted strike that cost them 9 Flankers and 4 Fencers for some 35 DPRK fighters and some damage to radars and SAMs in the NE of the country. Nothing of importance was destroyed, but they did run the KN-06 battalion out of ammo and established local air superiority.

The duty F-22 guided-in TLAM attacks on the targets identified earlier, destroying the conventional Nodong (which scored nothing) and the others, which all proved to be AA guns.

A relief F-22 then found a second conventional Nodong and, more importantly, a nuclear one, which were flagged for more TLAMs, with overkill in the latter case.

Meanwhile, the Reagan Group neutralised numerous radars in the S of the DPRK and obliterated one of the two East Coast Gammon sites, again using TLAMs.

The Defence Command HQ, Satellite Command Centre and Satellite Uplink Relay targets were all pinpointed near Pyongyang, covered by clouds of fighters.

Sheean let fly with Harpoons and sank a Najin FFG and a Sariwon corvette, scoring nothing.

The search for the Sinpo remained frustrating, not helped by an SSK contact that might have been a Kilo and which acted as a magnet for our MPAs. It was eventually identified as an enemy Yono midget sub and sunk, alleviating the problem and allowing the planes to get on with the real job. It scored nothing.

11:00Z: More TLAM strikes destroyed the other Gammon site on the E Coast.

Sheean sank the frigate Nanpo (which carries a double load of Switchblades compared with the Najins) and a second Sariwon with torpedoes.

Mississippi took-out the nuclear Nodong for 200VP. With three helpings of 25VP for locating Nodong sites of either type, the score was now +275 – still a Minor Defeat. It was evident from Scenario Platforms that there was at least one more of each type left.

Some TLAMs aimed at the second conventional Nodong were shot down by the Russian ships as they passed overhead, necessitating a second strike with waypoints set to prevent a repetition.

The Russians were continuing to take embarrassing losses over North Korea, not helped by their mindless tactics. At least it cost me no points.

12:00Z: Poseidons responded to a sonobuoy contact and found a second Yono, which shared the fate of the first.

TLAMs destroyed the second conventional Nodong but the U-2, now able to participate after taking a circuitous route over the Sea of Japan, found two more.

By now, the North Koreans had worked-out that we were attacking them and we were warned that nukes could start flying in the next 4-8 hours.

A neutral freighter near the Reagan Group was torpedoed by an undetected submarine, but not sunk. Chances were that it had exhausted the culprit’s limited torpedo store, but I stepped-up helicopter ASW missions.

An Orion (my favourite plane in the game) then got the breakthrough, finding and sinking the Sinpo for 200VP. It was still a Minor Defeat.

There were indications that the Russians had found a Nodong site, though it could easily have been one of those we already knew about. Regardless, TLAMs took-out what proved to be the last conventional Nodong and another site that turned-out to be a decoy. We also rubbed-out the de-fanged KN-06, because we could.

14:00Z: Two Orions from Misawa used AGM-84Ks to destroy the Sinpo submarine pen for 100VP.

15:00Z: Sheean sank the second Najin FFG with her last Harpoon, then immediately found two midget subs (another Yono and a Sang-O) and disposed of them with torpedoes.

I’d moved a GBU-39 F-22 into position to hit the last nuclear Nodong quickly if and when it was found, with a tanker in support. However, despite the fact that both could theoretically use boom refuelling and the Doctrine settings were correct, the Raptor refused to re-fuel.

In growing desperation, I had another F-22 sweep the rest of North Korea with its radar in case the last Nodong was actually outside the search zone. It found nothing. With two F-22s and a U-2 searching, there wasn’t much more that I could do but, for whatever reason, the Nodong remained undetected. Of course, it COULD have been concealed underground or it COULD have been scheduled to appear at a particular time, but I wasn’t to know.

16:00Z: Two Poseidons from Iwakuni destroyed the Taechongun nuclear power station construction site and the Pyongyang Satellite Uplink Relay with AGM-84s for 100VP each, attacking from out in the Yellow Sea.

Then, appallingly, I was told I’d lost an F-22, theoretically for -25VP!!. A quick check showed that it had been the damned Russians!!. Units set to Weapons Free, in all probability - so preventable!. With Russia promptly going Hostile, this made a nonsense of the scenario and there was no point in continuing. The score was +750 and Average and I had to accept that. A poor return from a lot of effort.

I’m getting a little tired of broken scenarios, I’m afraid. I’ll continue the series with Aegean in Flames, which I’ve put off so far because I didn’t enjoy the Greece v Turkey scenarios in the Standalone Pack, then move onto the four Showcase scenarios after that. Hopefully, some of them will work better than this one did...

[Eboreg]

Did your F-22 fire on a Russian weapon with its cannons? That can be a bit of a problem in this scenario.

[fitzpatv]

Not to the best of my knowledge, though the incident happened while I was concentrating on the AGM-84 attack on the nuclear construction site and satellite uplink relay. The F-22 was standing some way off the coast of North Korea, using its ground search radar to look for the remaining Nodong, at 36,000', so it would have been remarkable had a Russian missile passed in front of its nose (for one thing, they don't fly at that altitude). The Russian ships did fire at some TLAMs that were passing overhead earlier in the game, but that didn't cause them to go Hostile. I also noted that all Russian missiles aimed at the North Koreans were shown in red, as if Hostile, though this may not have been significant.

[Eboreg]

Do you know how to access the log files?

[fitzpatv]

I know where to find them. Not sure if I could interpret them the way a developer would, though. I've attached it if you're interested though, to me, it doesn't shed much light.