Aegean in Flames 2020

[fitzpatv]

Sorry about the break in the flow of AARs, but I’ve just come back from a three-week trip to Japan and Aegean in Flames is a complex scenario which took a while to set-up and play.

Situation

It’s no secret that the Greeks and Turks aren’t the best of friends!. The scenario postulates that, in 2020, long-standing disputes over the rights to oil and gas fields off Cyprus and between Turkey and Libya were exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic doing serious damage to the Turkish economy. As Greece seemed likely to make a speedier recovery from the crisis, Ankara decided to act before her rival got too much of an economic edge. Turkey sent drilling and exploration ships into the disputed regions with naval escort and Athens wasn’t prepared to accept this as a fait accompli. Due to the pandemic, the presence of other navies was slight and, with the absence of tourism and the withdrawal of foreign oil companies from the area, the risk of civilian casualties in any conflict was minimised. You can play as either side, but Greece is the default.

Greece’s main objectives are to destroy the two drilling ships, positioned East and West of Cyprus and two Sea Explorer ships located South of Cyprus and East of Rhodes. Athens also has some economic targets on the Turkish mainland, most accessibly four oil refineries near Izmir but also aircraft factories near Eskisehir and missile factories around Ankara.

Turkey starts Unfriendly and there are exclusion zones where Greece has been warned that overflights will provoke hostilities, as would any Eastward advance by Greek surface warships. The Turks are believed to have pre-emptive strikes prepared.

Cyprus (excluding the Turkish-controlled North) is allied to Greece and has some choppers, SAMs and ground units.

The game uses the rarely-applied ‘Realistic Submarine Communications’ rules, which make subs go Out of Comms below periscope depth. Aircraft Damage rules apply, as does a variant of the infamous Downed Pilot script.

Balance of Forces

Greece has four Surface Action Groups. Hydra 1 is positioned between Crete and Rhodes and consists of three frigates, two PCFGs and a missile gunboat, which is Super Vita class and has useful long-ranged Exocets. Hydra 2 has another three frigates, a PCFG and a Super Vita and starts off Sitia in Eastern Crete. Hydra 3 has two frigates and a PCFG and is in an exposed position SSE of Cyprus, within missile range of the drill ship Yavuz and retaliatory range of her escorts.

Hydra 4 has the same composition as Hydra 2 and sits NW of Mykonos so as to screen Athens and succour the vulnerable Greek islands near the Turkish coast.

Three Super Vitas and four PCFGs are dispersed in ambush positions behind Aegean islands in an effort to counter any Turkish amphibious operations. The small, gun-armed patrol craft Mahitis is SW of Cyprus and extremely susceptible to attack.

A total of eleven SSKs are on station, six around the islands and the others where they can potentially move against the drill ships. Some carry Harpoons, while others are torpedoes-only.

In general, the Greek (and Turkish) frigates have reasonable, but not first-rate SAM and ASW capabilities and either Harpoons or Exocets. The Greek PCFGs and PGMs are not equipped to tackle subs, but have respectable stand-off anti-surface missiles and the Super Vitas also carry RIM-116s for air defence.

The Royal Hellenic Air Force relies heavily on the F-16 and they have squadrons utilising several different models, with AMRAAMs of the B and C-7 types and a mixture of IRIS-Ts and Sidewinders for close-in work. At Tanagra, near Athens, there are eight Mirages loaded as fighters with French MICA missiles.

Also at Tanagra are a dozen attack Mirages with SCALP cruise missiles and thirteen more with Exocets. However, these won’t be ready for six hours. The player has the choice of using the Exocet carriers from Tanagra or moving them closer to the enemy drill ships and Sea Explorers at Kastelli airbase on Crete. Three Hercules transports are readying to carry extra Exocets to Kastelli if desired. The downside to this approach is that the Mirages are not on Quick Turnround and will have to ready again at Kastelli before being able to attack. Still, the scenario lasts 36 hours...

Greece has a number of other attack planes (F-16s and Phantoms) and these have a mixture of loadouts from short-ranged Paveways and Mavericks to some AGM-154s (at Larissa) and a fair number of HARMs.

Unlike Turkey, Greece does not have any tanker aircraft and boasts just one Orion MPA (which starts aloft East of Crete) and a couple each of Embraer AEW planes and Compass Call OECM platforms. There are also some Pegasus UAVs, which are radar-less, slow-moving reconnaissance drones and lack the potency of their Turkish counterparts. Various heliports in the islands house attack choppers with anti-tank weapons.

Between them, Greece and Cyprus have plenty of SAMs, ranging from MANPADs to Patriots and Gargoyles, but the coverage is uneven and the forward defences are unlikely to withstand a sustained attack without external help.
Greece has some Exocet launchers at land bases, notably within range of both Turkish drill ships.

Turkey has sent comparable SAGs to those deployed by Greece to protect the drill ships and Sea Explorers and these are screened by SSKs. At Izmir, they have assembled an amphibious flotilla with escorting frigates, corvettes and PCFGs to conduct operations in the Eastern Aegean islands, like Limnos, Lesbos and Chios.

The Turks have a large, modern air force with lots of F-16s of different types, plus older Phantoms. Attack loadouts include the SOM long-ranged missile for use against land targets. In support, they have tankers, Wedgetail AEW planes and plenty of attack helicopters and UAVs, including Bayraktars and Harpies with offensive capability.

Another card in Ankara’s pack is an arsenal of ballistic missiles, which can reach much of the Aegean and Thrace. Turkey has plenty of SAMs, including a couple of Growler systems shielding Ankara and the waters North of Cyprus.

Assessment and Planning

It was hard to be sure about what to do with Hydras 1, 2 and 4. They were quite vulnerable and a good distance from being able to intervene around Cyprus. I decided that they would be better used to protect the Greek islands from amphibious assault.

Hydra 3 was very exposed and would not be able to get clear if the Turks attacked straightaway. Initially, I was resigned about it and resolved to fire at the Yavuz once the balloon went-up, then run for it.

All of the Type 214 subs started with no Harpoons loaded, so I took steps to correct this. Worried about the ‘Realistic Comms’ rule, I set all subs to operate at periscope depth (despite the risks) and NOT to dive when a threat was detected.

The Mahitis needed to get out of the way, fast, so I had her run to the area S of Crete.

I removed the existing pre-set CAP missions (and most of the others), as I considered them too complex and restrictive.
A concern was that, judging from the default settings for the Greeks, the Turks were likely to fire A2A missiles automatically to maximum range, which could be up to 65nm for AMRAAM C-7s. As ours were set (by me) to fire at 20, we would have to break away, outrun the enemy shots, then close again. In general, it didn’t seem a good idea to engage Turkish fighters unless we had to, so I adopted a defensive posture for the Royal Hellenic Air Force, aiming to leave the enemy nothing to hit and get after them once they turned around and headed for base. Attacking from the flanks and rear where possible seemed a good idea, too. This approach would enable us to fight with support from our SAMs, rather than the reverse.

I decided to send the Exocet-carrying Mirages to Kastelli, as suggested, while those with SCALPs could be used against the Izmir refineries and, maybe, Eskisehir. I was concerned about Tanagra being hit before the Mirages were ready, which was one of several good reasons to delay hostilities until about six hours in, if possible.

The Action

11/6/20 22:00Z (00:00L): An Aegean Hawk chopper from Hydra 3 identified two Burak PCFGs, a Kilic II PCFG, two Perry/Gabya frigates and a Meko IIB frigate around the Yavuz, East of Cyprus.

There were two Yavuz frigates (confusing, I know), an Ada corvette and a commercial trawler some way S of Cyprus. The latter was probably the Sea Explorer Oruc Reis.

West of Cyprus, the Fatih was escorted by at least three frigates and a corvette.

Another flotilla of up to seven ships was clustered off the Turkish coast E of Rhodes and was likely escorting the other Sea Explorer, the Barbaros (both were named after 16th century corsairs who were, ironically, part-Greek).

A message arrived to say that the Turks had been moving artillery, including ballistic missiles, out of bases and might be using naval exercises to cover inserting special forces onto Chios, Limnos, Lesbos and Skyros. Tanks had been deployed along the Green Line in Cyprus.

23:00Z: I was unhappy with the exposed situation of Hydra 3 between two Turkish SAGs and close to their air bases, so had them withdraw towards the Levantine coast for possible employment against the Oruc Reis group later. The Yavuz could be left to our submarines, as I had a cunning plan…

One of those subs, the Papanikolis, then detected a Turkish SSK ahead. She was in a good position to take it out, but this conflicted with my intention to delay the start of hostilities, so I successfully steered around it and circled to the West. It would be no threat to the retreating Hydra 3.

The three C-130 transports duly delivered their cargoes of Exocets to Kastelli.

12/6/20 00:00Z: NE of Rhodes, the SSK Okeanos reported a sub-sea contact, then abruptly went Out of Comms, despite my precautions to prevent this. As I’d feared, this happened to two or three more Greek subs over the course of the game and, once you lose contact with one, you ain’t never getting it back!. It’s a lousy rule and takes no account of initiative on the part of submarine skippers. I’m uncertain whether or not it affected the Turkish submarines in the game, too. I moved a nearby PCFG further away from the suspected sub.

01:00Z: The waiting game continued. I passed-up the chance to sink a Turkish PCFG with the SSK Proteus in the approaches to Izmir. Hydra 3 and Mahitis were now out of Harpoon range of enemy warships.

02:00Z: Hostilities unexpectedly began in the Turkish-proclaimed exclusion zone East of Crete. Because it’s such a large map, I didn’t actually see what happened, but the Turks lost a Perry/Gabya FFG and two choppers for 100 + 20VP. This formed part of an additional group of three enemy warships which had been moving SW across that zone. Hydra 2 engaged the other two (a second Gabya and a corvette).

Off Izmir, Greek missile boats sank three Turkish FPB-57 PCFGs that had intruded around Lesbos and Limnos for 30VP each.

Turkish aircraft and ballistic missiles did damage to Greek land targets, but this scores nothing and SAMs downed two of their F-16s for 20VP each.

A Turkish SSK popped-up and fired missiles at Hydra 4, which parried them, moved rapidly away and sent a couple of choppers to prosecute the contact. As the scenario doesn’t notify you of enemy losses (but usually gives you the points), I didn’t see how the latter ended-up, but the SSK might have been one of a couple lost by the enemy without obvious cause. Subs score nothing for either side, for some odd reason.

03:00Z: Hydra 2 finished-off the second Gabya for 100VP and the accompanying Ada corvette for 70 more, plus 10 for a chopper.

Retaliatory strikes sank two Greek PCFGs in the islands for -30VP each. I didn’t see it happen.

The SSK Poseidon moved into kinematic torpedo range of the drill ship Yavuz and loosed eight tinfish. As the thing couldn’t move, it never had a hope and was destroyed for 500VP. Poseidon crept away, taking the view that the escorts were now isolated from events and had no further relevance. She was almost right…

Hydra 4 loosed missiles at the Turkish amphib force in Izmir harbour, but was thwarted by fighters and SAMs.

The Turks attacked Rhodes with UAVs and attack choppers, losing three of each to SAMs for 10VP a time.

An SSK was detected N of Hydra 1 and was hunted-down by her Aegean Hawks.

A large helicopter raid on Limnos and Lesbos did damage to ground units, but this scored nothing, whereas the five downed choppers netted me 50VP. In general, I could afford to ignore attacks on my ground forces throughout the game (and mostly couldn’t do anything about it, anyway). Perhaps the Victory Point schedule needs some revision here?. Or perhaps the (non-SAM and radar) ground units could be removed from the scenario altogether to reduce complexity and improve performance?.

04:00Z: The Exocet Mirages flew to Kastelli.

The SCALP Mirages then sortied, flew a few miles, loosed their weapons and returned to base. The cruise missiles destroyed two of the Izmir refineries for 100VP each.

An SSK ambushed Hydra 1, which fled at Flank and outran the torpedoes. Three choppers attended to the sub.

Numerous Harpy UAVs intruded over the Aegean and some were shot down. Despite being slow-moving, piston-engined drones, they were surprisingly hard to hit, but maybe this was just bad luck.

A continuous stream of single ballistic missiles kept coming from the Dardanelles region towards Skyros. Most landed in the sea, but some did damage to installations. Nothing critical, but it was a constant nuisance that went on all game.

05:00Z: Some Turkish F-16s made a dash for Athens. One ate a Patriot and the other two appeared to ditch!. I then received a message about how to rescue downed (Turkish) aircrew!!. I’d also had messages relating to the Turks sinking some civilian ships, accusing me of doing it but, at least, I wasn’t actually fined the threatened 500VP. Neither were the Turks, however. Generally-speaking, this is quite a buggy scenario…

There were continued enemy fighter sweeps over the Aegean and elsewhere and some ground strikes, too. It didn’t matter much and I just let them sweep, keeping my aircraft out of the way.

A Burak PCFG from the Yavuz escort came after Poseidon. Papanikolis supported her colleague and settled its hash with a couple of Harpoons. The Burak, unlike Greek PCFGs, has an ASW capability, but no real air defence. At +1,310, the score was Average.

06:00Z: Eight Turkish F-16s flew as far as Crete, so we scrambled fighters as they turned around, attacking from flanks and rear and downing most of them. Absurdly, another group of enemy Falcons went as far as Syria, getting shot at by Hydra 3 on the way. There they flew around until they ditched. There’s something seriously amiss with the scenario here and the Turks lost large numbers of aircraft to ditching over the course of the game.

Some Phantoms raided Larissa in NE Greece and four were downed by CAP.

We somehow lost another two PCFGs during the Turkish sweeps. Poseidon was also lost, even though there were no enemy units near her – possibly it was the SSK detected earlier?.

With the score on +1550, we were told that the Turks were going to make an all-out effort to turn the tide. In practice, this was probably the air surge we had already witnessed.

07:00Z: Not only were we continuing to receive messages about downed Turkish aircrew (which littered the map), but we also started getting fined 2VP a time for not rescuing them!. Given that the downed planes scored 20 each, this wasn’t too serious, but this version of the dreaded script really isn’t any improvement on the one in the Fury series. The next ditching put us in Minor Victory territory.

An airstrike then changed that by ripping the core out of Hydra 4, sinking the FFG Nikiforas Fokas and the PCFG Troupakis while badly damaging the FFG Psara. With choppers included, this set us back 160VP. The survivors withdrew (and ultimately got clear) but their retaliatory Harpoon strike on the Turkish amphibs failed to get past the strong SAM defences around Izmir.

A lone Phantom flew to Athens and was downed by a MICA Mirage.

The Turks had somehow lost a fourth SSK somewhere.

08:00Z: The enemy amphibs stirred and sortied from Izmir. I tried to attack the flotilla with four GBU-24 Falcons from Agxialos on Mainland Greece, but the weapons lacked the necessary range and one F-16 was lost to SAMs, the others being obliged to RTB.

A follow-up with four F-16s carrying eight AGM-154s was stopped by just TWO enemy F-16s, despite their having fired missiles at the attack planes (which outran them). They must have used cannon to get all of the 154s.

A half-dozen HARM F-16s tried their luck, but the enemy ships had their radars off and it was all we could do to knock-out a shore-based radar against heavy SAM defences before withdrawing. It looked as if we would need our two in-comms SSKs (Proteus and Triton) to protect our islands.

Meanwhile, Hydras 1 and 2 tried attacking the force around the Northerly Sea Explorer (the Barbaros), but the SAM and fighter defences were too strong and the Greek ships withdrew to avoid retaliation. Their spotting Orion was lost to a Growler shot at the prodigious range of 102nm, costing us 100VP. Things were getting seriously frustrating…

Despite this, the score was +2,038 and a Minor Victory. I was tempted to put-up the shutters, apart from my three subs converging on the drill-ship Fatih and the planned Exocet strike on the Oruc Reis group.

One of the retiring HARM F-16s was lost to what must have been an AMRAAM fired at maximum range or an undetected fighter.

09:00Z: The Turkish amphib force was cruising around in circles instead of making determinedly for one of our islands. It added to a sense of the absurd about the scenario…

Suddenly, the Greek Armed Forces HQ at Athens was taken-out by what I presume was a SOM cruise missile strike. I had an Embraer circling over the capital, but it failed to detect the threat. This cost me 250VP.

Closing painfully slowly on the Fatih, the SSK Nireus encountered a mystery contact, moving across her path at 3 knots. Now Turkish SSKs in this game have a Creep speed of 4 knots and, while there’s an American SSN around somewhere, this Creeps at 5 knots. Regardless, I couldn’t risk attacking a US warship by mistake, so Nireus kept her nerve and sailed on past.

Two enemy F-16s flew to Athens and were missed repeatedly by the Patriot battery (Patriots are absolutely hopeless in this game). Unluckily, the PCFG Xenos had withdrawn there after firing her Harpoons and the F-16s happened to be on attack loadouts, sinking her.

10:00Z: Two Mirages pursued the offending F-16s at Afterburner and took revenge for a net gain of VP.

The SSK Proteus attacked the amphibs at kinematic range. She was detected and a Seahawk dropped a torpedo at her. Proteus surfaced and delayed the inevitable long enough to fire all 14 of her tinfish before being hit and left 94% damaged. However, she sank six of the seven LCTs for a total of 900VP, which made it +3,178 and a Major Victory.

11:00Z: SSK Triton followed-up, sinking the remaining LCT, along with two frigates (trapped against a lee shore in the confined waters) and a chopper for 360 VP total. She outran an answering torpedo and fell back on the shores of Lesbos.

We finally got to launch the Mirage strike from Kastelli.

Fighters from Agxialos pursued and downed four enemy F-16s that had paid the base a visit, waiting for them to go RTB and chasing at Afterburner.

Nireus loosed eight torpedoes at Fatih, but was quickly sunk by the efficient Turkish ASW choppers.

Mirages destroyed the remaining pair of refineries at Izmir with SCALPs, despite significant resistance from SAMs and fighters.

12:00Z: The Mirage strike from Crete switched home base to Paphos in Cyprus to overcome fuel problems and savaged the Oruc Reis group with Exocets, sinking the Sea Explorer for 500VP and both escorting frigates for 100 each. At this point, the scenario ended in a Triumph with a score of +4,594.

In the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin had enjoyed his best laugh in years...

Greece lost an FFG, 4 PCFGs, 2 PGMs, 2 SSKs, an Orion (sob!), 3 fighters, 4 choppers, 2 UAVs (on the ground) and 153 ground elements, including the Armed Forces HQ.

Turkey lost a drill ship, a Sea Explorer, 6 FFGs, an FFL, 4 PCFGs, 7 amphibs, 4 SSKs, 8 transported LCVPs, a RHIB, 100 MRCAs, 23 choppers, 5 UAVs (not counting Harpies, which are munitions) and 12 ground elements, including the four refineries.

Nireus’s torpedoes sank the Fatih after the game finished for what would have been another 500VP.

This scenario is easier than the Greece v Turkey Standalone games, mainly because it had to be balanced to be playable by either side.

In general, it is a bit too big, making it difficult to keep track of everything that is going on. It was very easy to suffer some calamity elsewhere while concentrating on one aspect of the action that needed micro-management.

It is also decidedly buggy, the main issues being:
- The player getting messages intended for the other side (downed aircrew, neutral ship losses)
- Being fined for not rescuing the other side’s airmen
- The ‘Realistic’ Submarine Comms rule needs to go
- Eccentric AI behaviour resulting in planes flying all over the map and ditching.
- The aimless behaviour of the Turkish amphibs
- No VP for submarine losses
- The effective irrelevance of land unit losses.

Anyway, that finishes the Command:LIVE scenarios. However, as they are broadly in the same category, I will move on to the Showcase ones, alternating as ever with Northern Fury.

[Eboreg]

Yeah... I never did get to play this scenario due to how overwhelming it is. I should note that sending cruise missiles through fighter coverage is a great way to waste cruise missiles.

[fitzpatv]

Can't argue with that. Trouble is, in this scenario, there are always fighters protecting the targets (Turkey has so many) so the choice is try it anyway or do nothing. The SCALPs did succeed in taking-out the four refineries, scoring 400VP, so it was worth it.

[Knightpawn]

Thanks for the AAR. This was one of the first scenarios i tried when i got the game. I remember that I liked it then but I dont recall details. I will give it a go again.