So, without further ado I’ll go into the usual pre-battle thought processes. Since I mostly play land-based wargames my modes of thinking etc tend to the land-lubberish side of things
. So, apologies if the way I put my thoughts down isn’t “navy”. ME(ICP)TF(ICP)
Mission:
My mission is twofold:
a) Prevent the southward expansion of the Imperial Japanese hegemony.
b) Roll back Japanese forces and at the very least isolate Rabaul.
Enemy (Intentions, Capabilities, Probabilities)
Intentions: The enemy intends to drive southward in what will almost certainly be a two-stage operation. Stage 1 will involve the enemy driving down and capturing Port Moresby, Gili Gili, Lunga and Tulagi as well as, probably, establishing a base at San Cristobal as quickly as possible. Stage 2, after a suitable period of quiet ( to allow the establishment of forward supply dumps, build and staff new airfields and integrate new surface fleet units) will comprise of the enemy drive into either Australia or the New Hebrides/New Caledonia. I doubt the enemy will have the manpower to attempt both drives at once (although diversions shouldn’t be discounted) and even if he did I doubt he’d split his forces. Ivan sounds like he knows what he’s about.
Capabilities: Crucially enemy forces begin the game with only a slight advantage over mine in terms of absolute numbers. This means that the enemy forces must choose between massing all their force to accomplish one or two objectives or attempting all 3 or 4 objectives with piecemeal forces and hoping that while they commit only small forces to battle those forces I can commit ( in trying to defend everywhere) are smaller still. I expect the enemy to gamble and attempt to accomplish everything at once. Most objectives will be undefended and so even the tiniest force, which wouldn’t even be noticed in fighting a month from now, can achieve significant victories. However I can expect the Japanese High Command to flood the theatre of operations with additional assets once combat begins. So, the enemy certainly has the assets available to enact Stage 1. Then, while he waits for and incorporates his reinforcements into his order of battle and builds up the logistical framework needed to support the 2nd Stage his aircraft will begin softening up my forward bases so as to ensure the momentum of Stage 2 isn’t shattered at the off. How Stage 2 will unfold is dependent on so many factors that it cannot be meaningfully forecast except to say that if I haven’t managed to put a crimp into Stage 1 then Stage 2 is likely to be successful.
Probabilities:
Enemy forces will utilise a high operational tempo for the first month in an attempt to secure the basing areas for the beginning of Stage 2. As the enemy commander does not have sufficiently large forces in-theatre to ensure overwhelming force at all points I can expect much attempt at coup de main victory and the use of his carriers in a “fire brigade” role. These two aspects offer opportunities to me. I can expect Stage 2 to kick off no later than July ’42 if all goes well for the enemy. It is my job to make sure it does not.
Terrain:
Well the terrain will have a major impact on this fight. Stage 1 of the enemy advance is geographically rather circumscribed. There are a very limited number of practicable ways to the objectives. Combined with the enemy’s guaranteed quantitative and qualitative superiority during the early stages of the battle this should result in a “hey diddle, diddle, right up the middle” approach relying on strength to win through. Stage 2 is much more open. The Japanese commander can choose to attack down the lateral flanks ( Cooktown, Cairns or down the Luganville, Efate chain) or can choose to steam down the centre of the gulf between Australia and New Caledonia, attacking to whichever side seems weakest at the time. The latter approach for Stage 2 will greatly lessen the impact of my submarine forces whilst increasing the impact of my air forces and engendering a more fluid and indirect battle. The former approach will enable me to more easily achieve concentration of force whilst lessening the role my navy will have to play.
Either is acceptable although if I lose the carrier battles the fact that the flanking approaches allow my land-based aircraft and submarines to operate to their full capability would make such an attack a sight I’d like to see.
Friendly:
Intentions:
I intend to put a crimp into Phase 1 of the enemy’s plan. I do not have sufficient force to meet and defeat him everywhere but I surely have sufficient force to bleed him and force both over-commitment and a loss of momentum.
Capabilities:
I have two strong infantry forces (Americal at Noumea and an Australian Infantry Division at Brisbane) and the wherewithal to move just one of them. I have significant land-based air power in Australia and little to the East. I have significant fleet strength in Australia but my carriers to the East. In addition all my transports are in Australia.
I have the ability to defend only one flank until such time as I am strongly reinforced.
Plan:
I will ruthlessly strip my right flank (the East) in order to concentrate all force onto Port Moresby and the seas around it. My surface ships, carriers and all planes except for a single PBY squadron will abandon the right flank and head for Australia. Such an excessive concentration of my force should ensure that even though inferior overall at the key points of Gili Gili and Port Moresby I will be superior. I intend to gift Gili Gili to the enemy whilst making it appear via propaganda that I am amazed at how quickly and easily he took it… May even mention turning my troop transports back etc. I intend to reinforce Port Moresby with fighters, fighter-bombers and twin-engined bombers as my aviation support there increases. These will be utilised to fight enemy light surface forces ( up to CL displacement) with incessant low-level strikes. Meanwhile my B-17s will engage in a night bombing offensive of Gili Gili with the aim of slowing the development of its runways and increasing supply requirements beyond that which can be supplied by Fast Transports and transport planes. I will attempt to stage as much as I can out of Australia to prevent losses to Japanese bombing of Port Moresby. Given a sufficient flow of replacements this strategy has a good chance of having my planes actually achieve something worthwhile whilst increasing experience without getting them all blown to pieces on the Port Moresby runways.
If the enemy attacks into the New Hebrides then my carriers and surface fleet will have to advance and meet them on the high seas. Nothing short of a full-scale attack on either Port Moresby, Australia or the New Hebrides will lure my carriers into an unsupported carrier vs carrier battle until such time as I am certain of having at least equality in quantity and quality of aircraft and crews.
0600 1st May 1942.
Noumea Naval HQ: Crowded and smoky briefing room. An American admiral takes the stage, backed by a large-scale map of the South-West Pacific… many, many red circles and arrows stain the map, opposed only by a pitiful smattering of allied markers. Things don’t look good and the mood is subdued; no jokes, no banter just the serious look of men facing into a typhoon in a 10 foot rowing boat.
“ Well gentlemen, this is it. The Imperial Japanese Navy is coming and it isn’t about to stop for anything short of a salvo of 16” shells in the face… or a salvo of torpedoes in its belly. They’ve taken a few bites of the cherry already and we’ve lost the Phillipines, Malaysia and a whole shitload of other real estate. OTOH we’re going to make THIS bite of the cherry the sourest, most diarrhoeal bite they’ve ever had. I want them to hate the taste so much they’d rather starve to death than take another bite. Here’s how we’re going to do it:
1. Lexington, Yorktown and everything else at Noumea are to immediately make best speed to Townsville. NO CAP, ASW or SEA searches are to be flown during this trip. I doubt the enemy will have Mavis and Emily flying boats out yet so we should be safe from spotting so long as we don’t give the game away by having SBDs show up in over some Japanese sub. Once in Townsville the carrier task force will hold itself in readiness to attack any enemy surface vessels near Buna, Gili Gili or Lae. Of course, if the TF is definitely spotted at any stage all ASW, naval and CAP patrols go up immediately.
2. Australia will be stripped bare. Everything which is not dedicated to Northern Command or the maintenance of essential aviation purposes is to be uprooted and transported to Port Moresby by plane or boat. Brisbane is to be stripped of everything except its coastal defence battery., Towsville is to give up its AAA and Base Force. There’s a perfectly good airbase just inland of it. Any strikes I absolutely must send out can be sent from there. They will also be immune to bombardment. Cairns will lose the 91st Engineer Bn, the 7th Australian Bde and the 104th AAA Bn. Cooktown will lose the 14th Australian Bde, the 43rd Engineer Regiment and the 808th EAB. Most of this force north of Brisbane will be flown into Port Moresby but where radar sets or bulldozers must be brought in either a small task force containing the APs capable of 18 knots or a single destroyer making fast transport runs will be used.
3. Wherever possible ALL strike-capable aircraft in Australia will be based at Cooktown. Reconnaissance aircraft will, in the initial stages, be based at Cairns.
4. All aircraft with inexperienced crews ( Exp: <59) will undergo extensive training at their combat airfields. We will attempt to hold these crews back but, if necessary, they will go in. All aircraft with experienced crews ( Exp: >59) will immediately begin a period of rest and repair. Whilst we must, for the moment, accept inferior aircraft and less experienced crew there is no need to send fatigued, broken pilots out to face the enemy. This period of R&R will allow our pilots to regain their morale and freshness and will allow our mechanics to repair our damaged aircraft. When we finally meet the Japanese I want us to bring as much hardware as possible.
5. Submarine forces will sprint to the nearest ports or likely landing zones. Once there they will await developments.
6. Our primary shipping targets will be:
1. CVs, CVLs, CVEs.
2. TK, AOs
3. APs
4. BB
5. CA
6. All other shipping.
We will win this battle through logistics… or, more precisely, through safeguarding our access to a surfeit of supplies and reinforcement whilst strangling the enemy’s ability to bring resupply forward from Truk to his forward bases and fighting forces. Without supply he will not be able to advance beyond these bases and, eventually, he will become too weak to hold them. The carrier battles and air strikes are all very well and flashy but in the long-term logistics will win this campaign. The carrier battles and air strikes will simply determine how difficult it is for us to destroy the enemy’s logistics infrastructure.
Very well gentlemen. There you have it. Let’s give the enemy almost complete initial success and then let’s ram the ramifications of that success (the need for resupply, reinforcement, further advance etc) so far down his throat he’ll need a proctologist to find out where it’s ended up.
I will base myself on Lexington on the journey over to Australia and then will fly to Cooktown in order to direct the defence of Port Moresby. Good day.”
1st May 1942 through 2nd May 1942.
Little of consequence occurs. My aerial reshuffle in Australia begins and results in the first trickle of reinforcement flowing into Port Moresby. Both transport Task Forces leave Brisbane on the 2nd May and begin steaming northward. Meanwhile the CV TF and AO TF move westward from Noumea. Subs are in or nearing their patrol positions.
C47s begin airlifting engineer assets and infantry into Port Moresby and will continue to do so until the Port Moresby force reaches full strength.
3rd May 1942.
Action: SS-38 reports the sighting of 2 x CA and 1 x DD south-westward of Rabaul. It appears enemy surface units may be heading towards the New Guinea region. An enemy garrison force lands at Gili Gili. I make quite a play of this with Ivan, wondering how they got there, bitching about turning a transport force around and then emailing him with another email to say instead of turning it around I just headed it for Port Moresby. I will also institute a campaign of questions regarding amphibious landings over the next 3 or 4 turns. I should start with vague questions and then narrow down to specific points, just as one would if one were planning an operation and began to run into specific hurdles/grey areas.
All of my planes, except for patrol planes, are either training hard or on R&R. In response to the sighting of the CA TF I take dive-bombers and other useful planes off training and put them on R&R. Let’s see how much morale and fatigue they can recover over the next day or two.
Elsewhere Tulagi and Lunga fall to IJN Naval Garrison attacks as the lone PBY squadron I left on the east side of the map transports the first portion of an Engineer unit to Wunpuko Island. Here’s to building a nice base to base patrols and LRCAP out of when it comes time to retake Guadalcanal.
4th May through 5th May1942.
An enemy Fast Transport unit comprising at least 1 x CL and 4 DDs has sprinted to Gili Gili overnight. S-38 attempted to interdict them but was forced down before it could attack. The enemy retreated out of range of my Port Moresby based fighter-bombers and Dauntlesses before morning-time. In response I begin a policy of staging most of my fighter-bombers and dive-bombers out of Cookstown/Cairns. They can rest and train up there and if I see any Japanese convoy loading up APs etc they can fly up to PM and be ready for combat before the convoy enters bombing range. I am taking a risk in doing this but I am getting concerned at the lack of bomber strikes from Rabaul. Either Ivan is up to something in the Solomons or he is husbanding his strength preparatory to a really major assault on Port Moresby. Either of the above is bad, bad news.
I begin the campaign against Gili Gili slowly with low-level strikes from a single squadron of Wirraways. I had intended to strike with the Wirraways and all the P-39s and P-400s at Port Moresby ( close to 80 aircraft) but it turns out the P39s don’t have the range to make Gili Gili. I’ll add in some of my level-bombers over the next day or two. I hope that this will mimic a piecemeal commitment and mislead Ivan into expecting my forces to be scattered all over the theatre of operations. Anything I can do to get him to commit serious transport forces to the Western portion of the map can only help me in the long-term. I’m beginning to think Ivan may be concentrating on the Solomons region.
My carrier takes on an F4 squadron from Noumea. Sudden increase in escort and CAP numbers by 50%... excellent.
