AAR Scholl versus Wilkerson

[jwilkerson]

WITP – Scenario #16 [ Mike Scholl/Allies, Joe Wikerson/Japanese, Start date 10/10/04 – 1 day per turn ]

Japanese commentary, Dec 1941. Since this scenario starts on the 8th … we have an approximately historical start built in. Primary activities during the month included taking Victoria Point and Tavoy, which was used as an airbase to drop a part of the 1st Para onto Andaman which was thus secured. Also an early landing went in to Kuching on SW Borneo which proved to be a major point of contention during the month as the Allies launched counterattack efforts which included 2 sorties by the British Fleet ( including PoW and Repulse ) based out of the Dutch Indes. The historical Japanese forces landed at Davao and captured this area despite surface attacks by the American and Dutch surface forces which resulted in some minor losses for both sides. Farther north, the Japanese struggled in the P.I. and have been unable to take either Clark or Naga, though Luzon north of Clark has been secured. In China, the Japanese may be facing disaster as several cities on both the north and south areas have been lost. Canton is besieged by an Army exceeding 150,000 Chinese though Canton has been reinforced and now has about 70,000 Japanese. Hong Kong is stalemated with the British proving too strong for the 38th Division by itself. In the East, Wake and Guam have fallen and landings at Finshafen, Kavieng and other areas have occurred. Rabaul is under siege by ground forces but has not fallen. We are playing with the following settings:

And the following statistics were noted at the end of the month:

Statistic Japanese Allies
Air Sorties 48438 39941
Air Losses 284 194
Political Points 1208 N/A
Score 3559 8261
Army Losses 214 742
Ships Lost 27 61
Oil 1127 (1,599,004) N/A
Resources 13883 (1,615,279) N/A
Supply 2,541,777 N/A
Fuel 3,615,607 N/A

At EOM 9/10 Carriers are on operations. Akagi is in refit at Kure. Shokaku/Zuikaku are off New Britain in support of operations in the New Guinea, New Britain, Solomons area. Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Taiyo, Zuiho, Hosho and Ryujo are in the Celebes area supporting operations there.

All 10 Battleships are supporting Operations in the Borneo, Celebes area.

Japanese Commentary, Jan 1942. By the end of January, We have established ourselves in Lae and Gili Gili with one of the larger sized BF in each ( 5th and 13th respectively ) and are building air bases in each. Buna has the South Seas Regiment planning for an attack on PM and Dobodura has a construction engineer also building an airbase. The 4 Kako class cruisers have been bombarding PM and Shokaku/Zuikaku have been supporting the area with airstrikes on PM they are operating out of Lae. Rabaul is also being built up.

We are operating about a dozen submarines in the area between Pearl and San Francisco – but aren’t getting much return for the effort. We also have short legged boats operating against PM and Tuesday and covering the Louisades.

In the East we have taken Kendari, Balikpapan and Bali. And we have built up Jambi. Zeros are operating out of Jambi and Bali and can now suppress air across most of Java, though we did send in Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu to launch a series of air strikes again all the airbases on Java. This carrier group is operating out of Kendari.

We have been bombarding Singapore with Artillery and completing our planning for an attack in February.

In Burma we have captured Rangoon and are advancing on Mandalay.

China and P.I. are still stalemated and are awaiting additional reinforcements before these can be broken.

We captured the following statistics at the end of the month.

Statistic Japanese Allies
Air Sorties ( cumulative ) 108282 98470
Air Losses 502 591
Political Points 2447 N/A
Score N/A N/A
Army Losses N/A N/A
Ships Lost N/A N/A
Oil 1,50M N/A
Resources 1.54M N/A
Supply 2.47M N/A
Fuel 3.26M N/A

Plans for February include the attack on Singapore and major landings on Java. Also air build up around PM to attempt to isolate. And continuing the conquest of Burma. P.I. attacks will have to wait for March as an additional Bde, fromDavao ( and if we can save up enough political points, a division from Japan ) will be available.

Japanese Commentary, Feb 1942. By the end of February, not much has changed really. On Sumatra, we have built up Jambi to a level 3 and have a Betty and a Sally Sentai operating against Palembang with Zeros covering. We have landed most of 3 divisions on Java. Bali and Banjarmasin are providing land based air cover with the Hiryu, Kaga, Soryu group providing sea based cover. We just pulled 68,000 oil points out of Balikpapan for the first oil pull of that size from the SRC. Singapore is besieged but is dug in and will take more time to finish. The campaign in Burma needs some help, the 33rd Division is driving on Akyab, but will need help to finish. The 55 Div is besieging Mytchina with help from an HQ and a Tank Reg. But Chinese have arrived and LB30s are bombing so will probably need help. In the East, Akagi joined Shokaku and Zuikaku to continue suppression of Port Moresby. A recent major allied convoy lost 3 cruisers and maybe 10 other ships but probably got the bulk of the troops unloaded. Lae with a level 2 and 2 Zero Sentai are owning the Skies. Gili has a level 2, a Zero Sentai and an 9 plane Emily unit. Buna and Dobodura are building up their airbases and supply. HQ SE Fleet have arrived at Buna to bolster the attack on PM. The 20th Division has been reassigned from Seoul to the P.I. this may give us enough strength to reduce the Manilla fortress. Rabaul is a level 5 Port and Level 4 airbase and about 60% of the New Britain, Solmons and North NG bases have been invaded or convered to Japanese ownership. Major IJN sub effort in the East PAC has been a failure, we have hit a few merchant ships but lost roughly an equal number of subs. We are playing with both IJN and USN sub doctrine OFF … but other than encouraging escort of convoys, there is no real effect.

Japanese Commentary, March 1942

Statistic Japanese Allies
Score 8345 6798
Air Losses 968 1122
Political Points 336 N/A
Score N/A N/A
Army Losses 358 3145
Ships Lost 59/587 156/1218
Oil 1.36M N/A
Resources 1.41M N/A
Supply 3.06M N/A
Fuel 3.06M N/A

We called the game on 03/25/42 ( real world date 1/9/05 ). At this point the Japanese Player felt he had not achieved his goals in the SRA. Sufficient Resource and Oil points were being pulled back to sustain current operational levels and production, but with Singapore and Manilla still held Java not complete and being stalled in Burma until the other places fall, the schedule was lagging. On the bright side the Japanese base build up around Port Moresby is ahead of schedule and bases Wewak, Madang, Saidor, Lae, Salamuna, Buna, Dobodura, Rabaul, Kavieng, Deboyne, Gili-gili, Shortlands all have construction well in hand with other bases occupied. The allies have early presence in Thursday Island and are Hanging on at PM but not other bases in the area.

As this was our first attempt at WITP, we have decided to restart, both players feeling that they have made grevious errors which can be corrected in a replay.

Summary: The allied defense of the SRC area was what I would call a “hedgehog” plan. Move all troops possible to the few really key hexes. Manilla, Singapore, Palembang, Batavia, Soerabaja, etc. Given a more effective defense of these locations, the Japanese commited an additional 3 divisions from the home Islands ( 4th, 2nd and 54th ) but have not been able to achieve the historical results. This leads at least the Japanese player to think that either the Political point cost of moving the British/Dutch troops around in the first 2 months needs to be increased or the Japanese infantry need a temporary “magical” bonus ( as the Zero has in the air war ). My allied opponent disagrees – but he will be playing the Japanese on the replay so we can see if he can beat his “hedgehog” defense ( of course he has the advantage of knowing he will face this defense – but I knew my opponent well enough to expect this anyway ).

Production Hints: I ran out of things to carry – not merchant ships to carry them. By February I had at least 300 hulls of AK/AP sitting around in Japan with no prospect of anything to do anytime soon. The convoys in motion were returning enough hulls each turn or so – to pull the meager amount of supply produced, out of the Home Islands. On my next chance to play the Japanese, I will do the following.

1. Turn off ship repair points except in 4-5 ports ( to save the resources).
2. Turn off all plane research except for carrier planes ( turn this on in all cases ) also leave on Oscar II research.
3. Turn off all engines other than Mitsubishi, Nakajima, Kawasaki, Aichi.
4. Continue to produce Dinah II for a while – to convert the Babs.
5. Turn off AK/AP production for all possible hulls.
6. Convert about 12 AK-7000s to AR(6), MLE(4), AE(2)
7. Leave TK/AO production turned on.
8. Turn off BB/CL production as soon as possible.
9. Turn off Shinano
10. Key decision as to whether to Accelerate other carriers and which. My Theory is – if isn’t in by mid-43 it isn’t going to be worth it.
11. Accelerate all possible DD always forever.
12. Learn more about whether to increase HI and whether to turn off or increase Naval and Merchant build yards – I have no feel for need to increase or shut down these factors.

Planning Hints: Plan all campaigns in detail, which divisions, which engineers, which bases, which HQs, which air units, etc.

1. Engineers to the front – needed to repair installations, needed to improve airfields and ports. Needed to operate airbases.
2. HQs to the front, needed to help tackle tough hedgehog defenses.
3. Artillery to the front ( same as #2 above ).
4. Zeros to the front convert A5 to A6 and move them to the front be aggressive, exploit the Zero’s magic bonus – keep an eye out for the AVG – if you have a chance to mass Zeros against them do it – they are your only equal until May.
5. Recon planes to the front. Knowing roughly what is where makes a big difference.
6. Plan the use of the airborne and coordinate with the transports. Used well – the 2 Bn sized airborne units and the transports are a very potent force. Keep the long range L3Y unit up to strength – they can perform miracles.
7. The free up another Japanese division will cost about 3000 political points. Plan on needing that additional division – you should be able to release say the 20th in Seoul by early February if you save for it. The 20th is a decent division.
8. In China, plan to attack in the North and Center … plan to be attacked in the South ( from Canton through Hanoi ) … you must reinforce in the South. Use units from Hainan, but not the 18th Infantry – it still must go to Singapore. Place inexperienced air units in China to help them increase experience faster ( this is especially useful for bomber units ).
9. Keep a few AKs in most of the various ports of Japan, slowing loading … sustaining this “load everywhere all the time” plan will mean that at any given point in time – you can dispatch reasonable supply convoys to forward locations. Do not drain Toyko or Osaka or you won’t be able to upgrade air units and your production will shutdown.
10. It is a pain, but write down daily totals for all key production items, HI, Res, Oil, Fuel, Supply, etc. this will help you manage the trend … it would be nice – if the game allow the lists to be downloaded to excel automatically, having to manually transfer this data every turn seems silly in the computer age.
11. Make sure your ground units are planning for that next objective.
12. Make sure your objectives contain sufficiently large ports or airbases. Trying to supply a major campaign through a level one port is a problem. Trying to provide air support from a level 1 airbase – is a problem !
13. Rest you units before attacking. Attacking with high disruption is useless. Break off if you hit 70+ rest until you are below 20 disruption.
14. Combat engineers to the major “hedgehogs” ( like Singapore and Manilla ) necessary to reduce fortifications.