Naval Combat - # of ships

[BigSnig]

After spending 30 resources to bring 6 Heavy Fleests against 2, only one shipped engaged. Unfortunately for me he was next to a port and I didn't get a second round.

I reread the section on naval combat and think I finally understand the two die roles the computer uses to determine the # of ships engaged. What is not clear is if one side has more ships (after the die roles) does the extra ones fire? The manual implies that an equal number will fire at each other.

Has anyone done the odds of figuring out how many ships will engage. Let's suppose the majority number is 4. To get all 4 ships engaged would be odds or 1/4 and a second role of 1/4 making the odds 1/16. To get 3 engaged would be 2/4 * 1/3 or odds of 1/6. Is this right?

Assuming the above is correct, and hopefully someone will correct it if it isn't, How should the majority ships be brought to combat?

Let's suppose it is 4 vs 2 HFleets. Should one bring all 4 or just bring 2 and plan on a second wave of 2. Or is it better to bring 3 and add the forth to a second battle?

[JanSorensen]

It is quite possible to have more ships fire for the majority side than the minority side. Try attackin just 1 ship with say 10 and you will see.

As for the odds if its 4 vs 2:
4: 1/16 = 6% (1 in 4 * 1 in 4)
3: 1/16 + 1/12 = 15% (1 in 4 to roll a 3 initially * 1/3 to roll another 3)
2: 1/16 + 1/12 + 1/8 = 27% (roll 4, 2 or 3, 2 or 2, 2)
1: 1/6 + 1/12 + 1/8 + 1/4 = 52% (roll 4,1 or 3,1 or 2,1 or 1,1)

If its better to just send in 2 and keep more in reserve depends on the situation. You have to take retreats into account and you have to take supply into account. You also have to remember that the ships which did not get to actually fire can keep moving and attack elsewhere or move back in to attack in case there were retreated.

I hope this helps - naval combat is quite chaotic.

[BigSnig]

Thanks Jan, that does help. I have seen about 20 naval battles and have yet to see the majority fire more ships. I'll take your word that it can happen, but it must be pretty rare. Of course if it weren't possible, it would be silly to have the complicated formula using the two die rolls.

[JanSorensen]

You are welcome.

Try setting up a test run to verify that it can happen though.

Play all 5 sides as human (not pbem).
Run a German ship into the North Sea.
Run as many English ships as possible into the same area.
Watch the fight.

Odds are pretty good you will see more than one English ship fire on the single German one.

In a reasonable even fight its rare though.