Noumea--To Take or Not to Take?!!

[John 3rd]

Fellow Gamers and Strategic Geniuses!

In my campaign with Moses (MOSES DO NOT READ THIS! [:D]) we have reached mid-July 1942. I have taken far more islands and territory then the Japanese did in the war. I have grabbed Luganvile, PM, Suva and Efate. I am giving strong consideration to making an attempt at Noumea.

Made a grab earlier with very limited forces and got my (*&&^ kicked. I have at Lunga 3 Inf Div, 3 Art Reg, and 2 Eng Reg. These could be used for an attempt there. My KB is intact and currently upgrading--I have only lost Junyo and Hiryu. Pilot quality is OK. I have a lot of fighters at Luganville and Efate. We have been engaged in a see-saw aerial battle. The US and British Navy have taken damage but only the USS Hornet has gone down. Rest of his CVs are intact. He has 3 Inf Div and numerous BF on New Caledonia.

The essential question is should I make a grab here? Moses thinks I will. I am not so certain. These are my thoughts:
1. Roll the dice and try...probably fail or stalemate.
2. Could make a lunge at eastern Australia. I already have all the NW Australian towns.
3. Use these Inf Units as garrision forces on my high priority islands.
4. Keep a Div or two back as a reaction force for his eventual 1942 counter-attack.

Whatever decision I make, it will be the last offensive if I go that way.

I throw myself onto the mercy of the readers.

What do you think?

[worr]

What is the present score?

And how are your BBs?

Worr, out

[Mike Solli]

The first question that comes to mind is, do you want to take it to keep or is it just an attempt to hurt the allies a bit. If you want to keep it, how are you going to protect the supply convoys that will be needed? It's rather isolated. If you just want to destroy the ground and air units there, will it be worth the cost?

The US has some 4-5 CVs right now. They can put a hurting on something that isn't escorted by KB, and KB can't be everywhere. Even if you took on the US CVs and won, you'd trash you pilots. Do you have replacements for them?

I'd be cautious about invading Noumea in Jul 42. You have many years to go and not a lot of quality reinforcements. You need to decide if your losses are going to be worth it in the long run.

Finally, do you know what the Allies have on the ground there? If they have a few divisions, I don't think it's worth it at all.

[kkoovvoo]

You dont have a chance to capture noumea with 3 div + some support if he has 3 div and is fortified. Those battle would break your backbone - im sure.

[Slaughtermeyer]

If you're doing well in Australia already, I'd consider E. Australia. Maybe New Zealand should be considered as a possible target too?

[Mike Solli]

What's wrong with consolidating your position and raiding the Allied positions where you can cause them setbacks for little risk? I think that many Japanese players feel they need to continue to attack and gain ground. Take a look at your perimeter and see how thin your defenses are already spread.

[esteban]

At this point, I would only go for Noumea if you realistically think that you can take and hold it, and that you need the big victory point swing from taking Noumea for an autovictory. Other than that, you control a lot of the islands near Noumea, so you can use KB to raid Noumea's supply lines, and possibly win a decisive carrier battle away from Noumea's airfields. Then you can take Noumea or starve it into irrelevance.

But if the Allies have 3 divisions on the island, with decent supplies and support, you are going to need to land 6-7 divisions +supplies and support to drive him out, plus beat his carrier AND Noumea's land-based air. That's a tall order in July, 1942.

[rogueusmc]

You can ask Wobbly...he took Noumea from me...as well as Aukland, Wellington and Christchurch...it will be costly in the long run.

[John 3rd]

Those are all good notes. My gut tells me that it would be cost prohibitive.

I, personally, like the idea of a try at NE Australia. I know he doesn't have too much there. Since grabbing PM in March, there have been very few convoys going along the coast there. If I can force his hand some, there might be a chance of using the KB to hit his convoys and/or reinforcements that would HAVE to be sent there. I can also protect convoys somewhat by using PM as a LR CAP base. Might be a better and more controlable scenario.

Using the troops to consolidate would be good too. Putting a pair of divisions into the Marshalls would be a rude surprise! I have at least a brigade with support troops at Luganville, Efate, and Suva. Fortifications are all climbing.

If I don't take New Caledonia, then Efate and Luganville will become untenable pretty quickly due to his LBA. I have it pretty well knocked down at the moment. An 8 CV raid by the KB will do it nearly EVERY time!

The desire for one more good swing at Moses is almost overwhelming...

As to the BB question, most of my BBs are in solid shape. I have lost Haruna but gained Yamato. Musashi is coming along and should be ready within 30 days.

If I go for NE Australia, where should I target? Haven't ever REALLY thought about this as an option...should I land all 3 Inf Div at Townsville or go for Brisbane? If I land at Townsville, I can proceed north and destroy those garrisons at me leasure...

IMPORTANT NOTE: I do not know where his CVs are. I think they are in Auckland, NZ but cannot be for certain...

[RUPD3658]

Isolate it with LBA. An invasion is not worth it. The casualties will be high and it will be hard to hold/supply once you take it. You are too far from your strengths and too close to his.

Forget about Australia, there is little of value to be had there. Very little oil and not much HI. Plus, there are a lot of crazy Ozzies to harass you there.

If I was going to make one last offensive with my land units I would go for India. There is oil and HI there plus an overland campaign is easier to fight than an amphibious one. Lasly, it is too far for the Allies's strengths to put up much of a fight since only British units are in the theater. If you can bottle up the Allied units in Karachi it is doubtful they will ever be able to break out. The nice thing here is that all captured resourses and oil move overland and are not subject to interdiction.

[tsimmonds]

Have you made any opposed landings since your +200 bonus for amphib landing expired? It gets ugly after April 1.

Putting a pair of divisions into the Marshalls would be a rude surprise!

Only problem with this is that there is no location in the Marshalls that is not more or less easily bypass-able.

[scout1]

Taking Noumea does appear to be a good choice given your description. Frankly, there really isn't a good reason to attempt to take this base. To far out, doesn't improve resource/oil situation and can be isolated / bypassed later in the war. So other than the pleasure of kicking some Allied butt, no strategic advantage taking this base. Now it might be worthwild in starving it for some time with an occassional raid. Just because the Japanese flag isn't planted on the beach doesn't mean it necessary will have value to the Allies. Troops/base need supplies, ships need fuel. It imports everything. Embargo this puppy.

[John 3rd]

OK. Orders have been issued.

I am going to go about this in two manners:

1. I will use 2/3 of my available force to attack NE Australia starting with Townsville and then move North. The REAL goal here will be to force a fight with his CVs. I have the ships available and shipping at-hand for the invasion force. I will attempt to disquise the move by having the convoys head for PM (like a regular supply run I have been doing) and then have them swing south. Three days should put them at Townsville.

Do you think I should land on the city hex or take the beach north of the town?

I will move with enough force (2 Inf Div, 2 Eng Reg, a large BF, and a Tank Brigade) to immediately take the city. I'll figure a Brigade of Inf, 2-3 support units, and a fort of 9 for resistance. I think that should be enough to take it...

KB will cover the seaward side and look for trouble. Fighters and bombers from GG/PM will help on the westward side and Recon/Bombers from Suva/Efate will scout and watch the eastward side. SS to move in and create a line near Auckland.

D-Day will be set for two weeks or about August 1, 1942.

2. I like the offensive into India idea. I already have one going on there and will reinforce it. I have surrounded and laid seige to Mandalay and am driving on Imphal. I will lift 2 Inf Div from the Phil and reinforce this drive. Should be enough to make a significant progress....

I hold Akyab and everything south of Mandalay.

Any thoughts here from people who have done this strategy before?? Lessons learned???

[Slaughtermeyer]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Do you think I should land on the city hex or take the beach north of the town?

Send recon aircraft when you get a little closer. Multiply the reported allied force by 3 to get a better idea of what's really there. If he's weak, go for the city hex.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Any thoughts here from people who have done this strategy before?? Lessons learned???

The only advice I would give is be careful not to allow yourself to suffer from victory disease. Remember its July 1942, the pendulum is going to swing against you very soon no matter what, so anything that has its neck sticking out is going to get its head chopped off in very short order. Always look to your line of withdrawal and make sure you can extricate yourself once you see the shift in momentum. It's right around the corner.

Also make sure your defensive perimeter is set. Soon you won't be able to freely move assets around as you have been doing up to this point, so make sure everything is set.

Lastly, always assume your going to lose everything you throw into an offensive this late in the war. Then ask yourself is your potential gain really worth that loss.

Jim

[anarchyintheuk]

If you're just looking to provoke his CVs, I don't think you can find a worse place to fight than next to his airbases in Aussieland. From your previous description it sounded like you had decent assets at Efate and Luganville to support a drive at Noumea (or just a fake one, if you're only trying to provoke a reaction). Fight under your aircover. Trying to support an invasion of Townsville w/ cover from PM is difficult.

Factors I don't know are how built up Noumea, Efate, Luganville, PM and the Aussie bases are.

Sounds like you need about 3 more divs to do it, but wiping 3 IDs from the Allied OOB can be worth a risk. Just my two cents.

[John 3rd]

Good thoughts and ideas. I have moved two squadrons of Emily's to G-G for some scouting. I will disquise this by sending ALL my scouts out to nearby bases. Hopefully...it will distract him from my real goal...

I wish I could recon Auckland and find out if his CV are there or not. Would help me sleep a little better at night!

I have been supplying and building up the defenses of the perimeter fairly well. It is weak at this point but troops are moving about to shore things up. My LBA is concentrated pretty heavily along the Lunga-Luganville-Efate-Suva line.

[saj42]

Go for limited gains in India. IMHO PzB is the master in this theatre [&o]

Fighting through the trails to Imphal etc will be slow and painful. If you are going to launch an invasion then land in the Chandpur / Calcutta area. Good size bases and malaria free too. For defense you will have several mutually supporting airbases and a narrow front line on land. This depends on Moses troop dispositions - if they are all on the Burma border you can isolate them grind them down.

What state is the Brit navy in?

[John 3rd]

I have sunk 3 British BB and severely damaged a CV and CVL. Several CA and DD have gone down as well. I have to think that he is pretty vulnerable at sea there. His LBA is in good shape.

It will take a while move shipping and troops to this area. Guess I will begin Prep Points.

Like the limited goals approach to Burma/India. Should shift Moses' attention from China to a, perhaps, much more vulnerable arena.

[saj42]

SEAC gets a decent amount of reinforcement by this time, so all depends on the troop dispositions. Attriting his LBA is going to be a difficult task using IJA LBA only - do you risk the KB in those restricted waters? With Rangoon, Mandalay and Akyab in your possession at least your convoys can be LRCAPed all the way to the beaches.