PBEM Japanese Strategic Thinking, Aztez Vs.FDRLincoln (Don't Read Aztez!)

[FDRLincoln]

This thread is for my thoughts regarding the game I am taking over as Japan against Aztez.

It is October 1943. The Emperor has appointed me as Defense Minister after the previous minister quit to spend more time with his family. My first look at my situation following my appointment reveals the following:

Japanese STRENGTHS
1) KB is intact.
2) The main battle line is intact. Only one BB has been sunk.
3) We still have a fairly large number of experienced land-based air crews.
4) We have pushed the Chinese back significantly.
5) The Americans are just now starting their offensives in the south pacific and have yet to make major progress.
6) We have a large stock of completed aircraft.

Japanese WEAKNESSES
1) The convoy system was being mismanaged in my view and needs to be completely revamped.
2) Many of our ships have not been refitted with additional AA and radar.
3) While we have pushed the Chinese back, casualties are heavy and we are pinned down by allied air near Chungking.
4) The supply situation is inadequate.
5) Naval air crews are depleted and lack experience.
6) The submarine force is not being used aggressively enough.
7) Care and maintenance of the fleet has been neglected. Many ships are in need of overhaul.

[FDRLincoln]

Short-Term Plan of Action

1) Pull back depleted air units from China to Japan. We have several Oscar units with 24 experienced pilots but just 4-5 aircraft. These units need to be rested and resupplied.
2) Cancel all convoys except those within 6 hexes of their destination. Turn all convoys from automatic to manual.
3) Begin in-depth examination of all industrial centres. Where is our supply going?
4) Begin operations with all docked submarines with damage rating of 1 or 0.

[Nemo121]

I had a look at this game as I was aching to try a 44 game. I turned it down, in large part, because PDU was off and I like having PDU on.
With that said I did look at the Japanese setup...

1. KB's datai are very inexperienced and will require extensive training. While you have carriers they are largely useless at present until the Daitais on them get 3 to 4 months training under their belts. With that said in early 1944 KB could, again, be a formidable force and able to act in areas lacking American carriers. Another possible gambit would be to load your carriers with only fighters set to 90% CAP and draw down Allied carrier strength. It wouldn't stop the Americans forever but, in conjunction with the sort of rapid reinforcement in point 2, it could distract the Americans long enough to land the troops to decisively defeat them on land.

2. Ground unit dispositions are quite haphazard and there is no grouping of strong reserves PLUS the APs to carry them in a central location. I would suggest that this be given a high priority. Identifying and placing a half-dozen division-equivalents (including independent tank regiments) in Borneo or the Phillipines along with APs with 4500 ton capacity ( to maximise reaction speed) and a fair bit of luck could help you blunt the initial invasions... something I consider crucial in forcing an operational pause on the Allies such that you can consolidate your position.

3. Production: Production is hosed. Too few Nakajimas are being made, too many airframes etc etc. This needs to be rationalised immediately.

4. As you noted the supply convoy situation can best be described as chaotic. I suspect significant savings in fuel expenditure and significant increased in resources and oil brought back to Japan can be managed here. I also spotted a few industrial centres which were running low of resources and oil.

5. Most of the Japanese fleet was neither upgrading nor carrying out any major offensive or defensive missions. It was just languishing in port gaining naught from refits and accomplishing naught.

6. Army fighter Sentai, with a few notable exceptions, are of very poor quality or attrited to nothingness. There are a few Oscar sentai with only 1 to 2 planes in the front lines. This was a poor choice on your predecessors part as these sentai should have been full of newbies training up to become competent.


7. I raised the issue of a 2 week ( or more than two week if you think it is required) operational pause in which all offensive actions would be suspended. This would give you a chance to move your planes, shipping and ground troops to great benefit. I think that with a 1 month operational pause the Japanese situation could be turned around. I am sure Aztez would be willing to grant at least 2 weeks and possibly more, especially with 2 day turns. Having seen the dispositions I think that the only thing preventing a rapid Japanese collapse would be a major redeployment and since you are taking over in a GAME I think a bit of a guaranteed operational pause so you can shuffle the deck a little could do wonders.


If you get the operational pause I think it would be well worth discussing exactly what would go where.... There were some interesting possibilities in the turn I saw.

[FDRLincoln]

Yes, these are all good points.

[FDRLincoln]

Normally I don't believe that Shinano is a good investment for the Japanese. But my predecessors apparently disagreed, and she finishes contruction in 17 days.

Musashi, on the other hand, is still 6 months from completion. Should I leave her frozen, or should I activate her once Shinano is finished?

[Rob Brennan UK]

Good luck FDR .. Nemo and yourself have made some excellent points . however hawker imo isnt to blame for any of them as he didnt play long enough to get any sort of rationalisation done. and i believe vorester got rather sloppy when he lost interest in it. just my 2c .. pls don't sue me [;)]

Aztez has agreed to pauses before and will again i am sure.

shinano in 17 days and mushashi in 6 months ???? thats some very odd reasoning .. oh well its a free CV i suppose. When shinano finishes there should be enough slack to finish off the mushashi but i dont know the exact numbers your looking at, just guessing.

good luck and have fun

[FDRLincoln]

Actually I checked again this morning and it was 35 days for Shinano. Not sure why I thought 17 yesterday. Still worth completeing I think given she is just a month out.

There are all kinds of weird things going on in this game. ALL of my repair shipyards had been shut off! No wonder the ships weren't refitting or repairing.

[Nemo121]

Good point Rob. Plus even if it were Hawker's decisions that got us to this place condemnation of the choices made isn't condemnation of the man.


FDR,
My advice would be to take Shinano and then get the BBs. Reason being that your battleline will be your best shot at attriting Allied ground forces for the next 6 months (assuming they don't over-reach and attempt a pointless invasion somewhere).


Again I think a 1 month operational pause is mandatory here. I would also consider asking Aztez to land a unit by sub at a phillipine island base of your choosing, capture it and allow you to begin pilot training without the hassle of risking interception by trained allied units in China. 1 month would be priceless for your forces.

BTW if you want to get really depressed check out the situation of your aviation industry .

[Rob Brennan UK]

Sounds like Japan is even more of a mess than i thought .. no repair yards operating ????? wierd ..

Whats so bad with the aviation industry nemo ? apart form the obvious engine production stuff.

I have a horible feeling that fixing this up will consume a huge amount of rather valuable supply ..

[FDRLincoln]

It is truly a mess. I have some garrisons sitting on a ton of supply, while nearby bases starve. As pointed out, aviation is a mess. But I won't give up.

The way I figure it, this will be a learning experience. If I lose, no one will think anything of it. If I manage to hold him off for awhile and pull a few surprises, I'll look like a genius!

Anyway, I guess we'll find out if I have any Albert Speer in me.

[FDRLincoln]

Aztez and I have agreed to a 10-turn (20-day game time) operational pause once the current amphibious landing is completed.

[Rob Brennan UK]

Thats a good gap .. major fleet overhaul time methinks

[Nemo121]

FDR,

I have a savegame and can look into it to analyse the situation. Would you be ok with this and with me posting the results to the forum?


Rob,
I'll answer depending on FDR's reply. I don't want to step on his toes, this is his game after all.

[Rob Brennan UK]

All true Nemo ..

I've been following aztez game from the start, but i'm very interested in seeing both sides now that FDR has taken over. i have great hopes for this game .. if you get to the end it'll be a classic.

[FDRLincoln]

Nemo, go ahead. All advice is appreciated, particularly in economics.

What I've done so far:

Cancelled all autoconvoys and re-routed some of them to places that need supply more desperately.
Reactivated repair shipyards
Cancelled all port, airfield, and fortification construction in the Home Islands to save supply

Not sure what to do about the aircraft industry. It is a total wreck. So far I've just made a few tiny changes but will be doing a more in-depth look shortly.

I just noticed that I actually do have many high-experience carrier Datais, especially Vals. But they have been taken off the carriers and assigned to islands!

There is a LOT of fixing to do.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Again I think a 1 month operational pause is mandatory here. I would also consider asking Aztez to land a unit by sub at a phillipine island base of your choosing, capture it and allow you to begin pilot training without the hassle of risking interception by trained allied units in China. 1 month would be priceless for your forces.

This is certainly the strangest proposal I've ever seen in this forum. I don't think that the designers wanted players to train their air assets this way (bombing a defenseless enemy unit to gain experience). I know that players do this, but I never understood the logic behind this. It certainly does not make for a better game if both sides only field high experience air units (ordinary training gives 50 XP units in a realistic time, so where is the problem?)

[Nemo121]

Well Mogami has been open in explicitly stating that changes were made to the way in which disband and withdraw functioned in order to allow the current model of on-map Japanese pilot training. If that isn't a guide to their intent I don't know what is.

[FDRLincoln]

Well, my Bettys did quite a number on his transport fleet in the Gilberts, at least the Bettys that snuck around the CAP. The ones the CAP found were slaughtered, but enough got through to sink at least four transports and torpedo several others.

But that CAP is nasty. Therefore, Combined Fleet is activating the "Hawk Plan", a huge night air attack on the American transports in the Gilberts. I'm gambling that he won't have any dedicated night CAP over his fleet, and that my planes can find his transports in the dark. It helps (I hope) that my Betty units still have 65-75 experience and are not horribly fatigued yet.

[Grotius]

This game looks like it will be great fun to watch. Good luck!

[FDRLincoln]

I really don't want to criticize my predecessors too much, and none of this is personal, and Lord knows I have screwed up my share of games, but the more I look at the Japanese situation, the odder it looks.

As mentioned before, all of the repair shipyards were shut down.
Other strangeness:
Almost no ground units are properly prepped for their current or nearby locations.
Almost every single Japanese submarine is 10+ in damage, sitting in ports without repair facilities.
KB is loaded with low-experience Datais. But highly-experienced carrier-trained Datais sit on isolated islands in various places.

Very frustrating! But we shall soldier on for the Emperor!