Are the Japanese now TOO powerful??

[ChezDaJez]

I've seen lots of rationalizations from the Japanese but the only person who has actually posted their aircraft production totals was for a game that was a complete blowout for Japan and is lost by the end of 42. Not an average example by any means. How about posting your production totals Pauk. How many first line fighters are you pumping out?

Jim, I assume you are referring to my game. The thing about it is that this "blowout" was entirely created by the allied player's tough defence of the SRA's oilfields and resources. You dismiss this game as not being an average example yet you want to use a game where the Brits have been nullified by the loss of India along with several other abnormal factors. I would submit that my game is closer to the average than is Andy's.

Andy's game, as he himself admits, is hardly an average example. It simply represents a game at the opposite end of the spectrum as mine.

Jim, have you played a PBEM as the Japanese player? If you haven't, I would strongly suggest that you do. You have a lot of misconceptions about Japanese production that only experience will correct. You neglect to mention the number of obsolete aircraft factories Japan is stuck with at the start and she can't upgrade them without using a significant portion of her available supply.

I’ve listed the beginning Japanese production values for fighters at the start of a stock Scenario 15 game. As you can readily, Japan starts with a very limited production ability and it is very expensive in oil, resources and supply to upgrade her factories. Upgrades must be done over a long period of time otherwise the Japanese player will bankrupt himself.

Engines:
Mitsubishi: 865
Nakajima: 360
Kawasaki: 110 (can’t be used until the Ki-61 Tony comes on line in Aug 42.

Fighter Production:
A5M4 Claude: 6
A6M2 Zero: 104
A6M2-N Rufe: 14
Ki-27 Nate: 70
Ki-43 Oscar: 62

Fighters Available in Pools:
A5M4 Claude: 220
A6M2 Zero: 51
A6M2-N Rufe: 7
Ki-27 Nate: 710
Ki-43 Oscar: 67

Fighters assigned to Land Units
Ki-27 Nate: 18 squadrons totaling 447 Nates
Ki-43 Oscar: 2 squadrons totaling 59 Oscars
Ki-44 Tojo: 1 squadron totaling 9 Tojos (none being produced)
A5M4 Claude: 12 squadrons totaling 219 Claudes
A6M2 Zero: 5 squadrons totaling 132 Zeros

Fighters assigned to Carriers
A5M4 Claude: 3 squadrons totaling 30 Claudes
A6M2 Zero: 6 squadrons totaling 126 Zeros

As you can see, Japanese production and aircraft strength in fighters at the start of the game is quite anemic. (Makes you wonder why they even chose war with these levels). Many of the squadrons begin under strength and short of pilots (so much for saving the pilots to replace combat losses).

Let’s see what it takes to optimize production without increasing it. First we upgrade all Nate factories to build Oscars. That will give us a total monthly production of 132 Oscars. It will be 1-2 months and 70,000 supply to fully upgrade. Then it will take over 3 months to upgrade all Nate squadrons and that’s assuming we have no combat or ops losses. With losses, the true upgrade time is closer to 6-9 months.

Let’s do the same for the A5M4 and A6M2 units. We upgrade A5M4 factories to the A6M2. Wow, only cost 6000 supply to do but of course we only get 6 more Zeros for a total A6M2 production of 110 aircraft. It will take about 3 months of production before all Claude units can upgrade to the Zero, assuming again no combat or ops losses. As the Zeros are in heavy action from the start we know there will be significant combat and ops losses. Let’s assume a loss rate of 100 a month. So that gives us only 10 Zeros added to the pool each month! At that rate it will take 24 months to upgrade all Claudes. It will be far worse once the Zero bonus goes away.

The simple fact is the Japanese player must upgrade his factories and must do it early (but in moderation) otherwise the war is over by the end of 42 because he will be out of aircraft. I haven’t figured in the total resources, oil and HI required to produce these aircraft but suffice to say that if the SRA oil and resources is damaged more than 50%, the Japanese player will not be able to provide an effective defense for very long.

I do agree that there are issues with allied production. I do not agree that the ability of Japan to increase her production is the cause of the problem. This issue wouldn’t be present with a more realistic air model and more accurate allied production numbers.

I did look at RL Hellcat production stats and they actually don’t appear to be that far off from the game from a monthly production standpoint. A total of 4402 F6F-3 Hellcats were produced between Jan 43 (only 32 were produced in 1942) and April 44. Deliveries began in Jan 43. 209 of these were given the Marines and 252 were given to the RN FAA. That leaves 3941 Hellcats produced for the Navy in 16 months of production. Approximately 300 were provided to Atlantic fleet for operations on CVEs and in Corsica. So that leaves 3641. Using Jan 43 as a start date that gives 16 months worth of production for an average of 227 aircraft per month. Some of these were earmarked for various training commands probably totaling 400-500. Assuming 400 given to training commands, that leaves 3241 or 202 per month. So it appears that the monthly WitP rate is off by about 60 aircraft. The problem is further compounded by the fact that WitP lists initial production as July 43 vice January 43 basically removes 7 months of production for the allies.

Chez

[RETIRED]

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

Let’s see what it takes to optimize production without increasing it. First we upgrade all Nate factories to build Oscars. That will give us a total monthly production of 132 Oscars. It will be 1-2 months and 70,000 supply to fully upgrade. Then it will take over 3 months to upgrade all Nate squadrons and that’s assuming we have no combat or ops losses. With losses, the true upgrade time is closer to 6-9 months.

Let’s do the same for the A5M4 and A6M2 units. We upgrade A5M4 factories to the A6M2. Wow, only cost 6000 supply to do but of course we only get 6 more Zeros for a total A6M2 production of 110 aircraft. It will take about 3 months of production before all Claude units can upgrade to the Zero, assuming again no combat or ops losses. As the Zeros are in heavy action from the start we know there will be significant combat and ops losses. Let’s assume a loss rate of 100 a month. So that gives us only 10 Zeros added to the pool each month! At that rate it will take 24 months to upgrade all Claudes. It will be far worse once the Zero bonus goes away.

The simple fact is the Japanese player must upgrade his factories and must do it early (but in moderation) otherwise the war is over by the end of 42 because he will be out of aircraft. I haven’t figured in the total resources, oil and HI required to produce these aircraft but suffice to say that if the SRA oil and resources is damaged more than 50%, the Japanese player will not be able to provide an effective defense for very long.

I do agree that there are issues with allied production. I do not agree that the ability of Japan to increase her production is the cause of the problem. This issue wouldn’t be present with a more realistic air model and more accurate allied production numbers.

I did look at RL Hellcat production stats and they actually don’t appear to be that far off from the game from a monthly production standpoint. A total of 4402 F6F-3 Hellcats were produced between Jan 43 (only 32 were produced in 1942) and April 44. Deliveries began in Jan 43. 209 of these were given the Marines and 252 were given to the RN FAA. That leaves 3941 Hellcats produced for the Navy in 16 months of production. Approximately 300 were provided to Atlantic fleet for operations on CVEs and in Corsica. So that leaves 3641. Using Jan 43 as a start date that gives 16 months worth of production for an average of 227 aircraft per month. Some of these were earmarked for various training commands probably totaling 400-500. Assuming 400 given to training commands, that leaves 3241 or 202 per month. So it appears that the monthly WitP rate is off by about 60 aircraft. The problem is further compounded by the fact that WitP lists initial production as July 43 vice January 43 basically removes 7 months of production for the allies.

Chez

CHEZ. This is the most level-headed post from the Japanese side I've seen in this discussion. At least you admit there IS a production discrepancy (and even identify a problem area.). That was the point the Allied posters were trying to make..., that there was something WRONG happening in A/C production as the game progressed. And you are probably right in that it is in the Allied Production figures that most of the corrections need to be made. Kudo's to you...

[bradfordkay]

I understand and applaud the idea that in the game the Japanese can exceed historical production figures. I would hope that the average result will be close to historical, with increased rates being the reward for getting more resources to Japan than they managed to import during the war. It is the whole purpose of the inclusion of resources in the game.

I do want allied production figures to be within historical ranges as well. I'm old school enough to want it to be slightly random; with historical being the median but a chance that each month you get a few less or more of each type (maybe add a modifier for how many bases each side owns), representing the fluctuating needs of other theatres.


(where's my nomex underwear?)

[dtravel]

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay
(where's my nomex underwear?)

Thirty years in the future. It wasn't discovered until the '70s. Since this is the '40s, no nomex underwear for you!

[1275psi]

here you go

another example that shows a far more realistic example
captured SRA in badly damaged condition
Mid 43
total production - 1500 frames a month theoretical -actually about 900

another game -42 start -all resources intact -very careful conservative production, making sure supplies do not dip -historical captures -1500 frames a month.

3rd game april 42-going great, but many resources destroyed -plenty of oil -800 frames a month -will not be able to expand this at all until 1000000 supplies have been spent merely on repairing captured resources.

BIG LESSON
(in my opinion) any Allied player who sir robins has no right to complain if japan builds a lot of stuff, and if the japanese player plays well enough to capture the resources he should be rewarded.

I really think that too many allied players think that 43, 44 should be total cake walks
Well it was not -we owe an awful lot to the courage of the marines, sailors, soldiers and airmen who actually overcame equally brave and committed men.
War in the pacific was a hard horrible slog, if the game does not go into 45 then it in a small way dis honours those who fought it.

If everyone fought their game as if the units were real men -i wonder how it would go then!

[SamCole]

I really think the OP asked the question wrong or the wrong question. The question should be "Are the Allies properly represented?" It appears that some production may be low( some coule be too high ) and possibly some of the start dates need adjustment. At the same time I feel strongly that the USN pilot pool is very unders reality. As Andy Mac has stated in his AAR and in various threads, it is not the number of Japanese aircraft that is a problem, it is the lack of quality second generation Allied aircraft and pilots that is. This can all be changed or fixed in the editor.

[ChezDaJez]

CHEZ. This is the most level-headed post from the Japanese side I've seen in this discussion.

Aw, gees! Now I've gone and ruined my reputation! [:D]

Have fun guys, I'm off on holiday. See y'all Friday.

Chez

[Bombur]

ORIGINAL: 1275psi


here you go

another example that shows a far more realistic example
captured SRA in badly damaged condition
Mid 43
total production - 1500 frames a month theoretical -actually about 900

another game -42 start -all resources intact -very careful conservative production, making sure supplies do not dip -historical captures -1500 frames a month.

3rd game april 42-going great, but many resources destroyed -plenty of oil -800 frames a month -will not be able to expand this at all until 1000000 supplies have been spent merely on repairing captured resources.

BIG LESSON
(in my opinion) any Allied player who sir robins has no right to complain if japan builds a lot of stuff, and if the japanese player plays well enough to capture the resources he should be rewarded.

I really think that too many allied players think that 43, 44 should be total cake walks
Well it was not -we owe an awful lot to the courage of the marines, sailors, soldiers and airmen who actually overcame equally brave and committed men.
War in the pacific was a hard horrible slog, if the game does not go into 45 then it in a small way dis honours those who fought it.

If everyone fought their game as if the units were real men -i wonder how it would go then!

-Excellent point. The allied player has a good chance to ruin Japanese economy if he attempts to fight for resource rich locations. I´m playing a PBEM game (Nik mod v5.2) as allies and I´m holding Palembang in May/42. Score is 11000 (Japan) vs 6000 (Allies) as I lost 5800 points in land forces (vs. 300). However, my opponent´s economy is likely to collapse in 1943 as (1) Taking Palembang will damage local oil (2) Balikpapan´s oil suffered almost 100% damage and is recovering slowly (3) Brunei suffered about 25% damage. Despite the fact I´m wrong with my first calculations, I still think that there should be more oil resources for Japan to capture, since it´s easy for the allied player, even a horrendous land general like me, to cause significant damage to resources as consequence of land battles.

[SamCole]

Back a couple of months I set up a test. I moved a total of 4 Dutch base forces to Palembang. then I ran two sets of test.

1. I just landed a division of troops at Palembang and took it. Usually there was heavy damage to the oil wells.

2. I procedded the landing with heavy air and naval bombardment. the damage was minimal.

My observation, prepare your objective.

[pauk]

sometimes(most times) will work, sometimes wont. bad dice roll can ruin JFB day.

[Nemo121]

Aye, I've managed a defence in the DEI which left the Japanese player with just 400 oil points throughout the entire area after he had taken it. This means that far from being a boon to the Japanese player the DEI will act as a drain on their resources for the next 12 to 18 months.

Since all war is, essentially, simply the playing out of the underlying logistics this has had the result of massively shortening the enemy's culmination point and removing the Japanese threat to Australia, Midway, Baker, Canton, Hawaii etc and also greatly increasing the security of India. It has also greatly increased the effectiveness of a strategy of attrition against Japan such that, IMO, the war will definitely be over by the beginning of 1943.
 
Now the above achievements are entirely within the grasp of most Allied players so any player who does a Sir Robin ( or is just plain outplayed) and thus faces the loss of India, most of the Pacific and portions of Australia plus a logistically much stronger Japan simply deserves whatever he gets.

[RETIRED]

ORIGINAL: SamCole

Back a couple of months I set up a test. I moved a total of 4 Dutch base forces to Palembang. then I ran two sets of test.

1. I just landed a division of troops at Palembang and took it. Usually there was heavy damage to the oil wells.

2. I procedded the landing with heavy air and naval bombardment. the damage was minimal.

My observation, prepare your objective.

Intresting point is that by heavily bombarding your target you "prevent" damage to it. Kinda like "screwing for virginity" or "killing for peace". Notice how the monsterous Coalition Air Campaign kept Saddam from destroying the Kuwaiti Oil Fields in the Gulf War.. Like most things in this game, it's BS.

[SamCole]

ORIGINAL: pauk

sometimes(most times) will work, sometimes wont. bad dice roll can ruin JFB day.

The only answer I can give is "If you want a guarentee - buy a toaster"

Nothing works the same everytime. But, if the Japanese player is in a hurry and does not prepare, the average damage will be much higher.

[SamCole]

ORIGINAL: RETIRED

ORIGINAL: SamCole

Back a couple of months I set up a test. I moved a total of 4 Dutch base forces to Palembang. then I ran two sets of test.

1. I just landed a division of troops at Palembang and took it. Usually there was heavy damage to the oil wells.

2. I procedded the landing with heavy air and naval bombardment. the damage was minimal.

My observation, prepare your objective.

Intresting point is that by heavily bombarding your target you "prevent" damage to it. Kinda like "screwing for virginity" or "killing for peace". Notice how the monsterous Coalition Air Campaign kept Saddam from destroying the Kuwaiti Oil Fields in the Gulf War.. Like most things in this game, it's BS.

I agree, I think that every attack should have a chance of damaging anything in the hex.

[bradfordkay]

"Despite the fact I´m wrong with my first calculations, I still think that there should be more oil resources for Japan to capture, since it´s easy for the allied player, even a horrendous land general like me, to cause significant damage to resources as consequence of land battles."


Well, let's see, if any historical oil resources are underrepresented, then certainly this should be fixed. Otherwise, wouldn't you rather see the programming concerning resource damage adjusted?

[Bombur]

Well, let's see, if any historical oil resources are underrepresented, then certainly this should be fixed. Otherwise, wouldn't you rather see the programming concerning resource damage adjusted?

-Good point, maybe the second alternative would be better (and also adjustments to the costs of repairing resources/oil). But this would need another patch, while you just need the editor to increase resources.....with a similar effect...

Back a couple of months I set up a test. I moved a total of 4 Dutch base forces to Palembang. then I ran two sets of test.

1. I just landed a division of troops at Palembang and took it. Usually there was heavy damage to the oil wells.

2. I procedded the landing with heavy air and naval bombardment. the damage was minimal.

My observation, prepare your objective.

-In one of my games vs. Nik, I used massive naval bombardment before to support a disembark on Palembang..which was captured with 100% damage. Maybe my troops weren´t enough, since I needed reinforcements before taking the base, but meanwhile more naval bombardment was done, with little effect. Notice however, that in Nik mod level bombers are much less effective in preparing the objective (and I think he is right, btw)