Japanese production - no PDU game

[marovici]

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

I'm not saying that Japan has enough materials acquirable, though it may, to match the USSR, but if they somehow took the territory of the USSR, isn't it possible that sooner or later they wouldn't even surpass the USA? You gain enough key territory though the Pacific probably isn't that large a goldmine and you can expect better industrial output; simple as that.

Theoretically it is possible, but looking at the industrial base you need to build, additional factories for airplane production, factories for machine tools, transportation, infrastructure such as power plants, distribution grids, worker training, etc. It seems quite hard to accomplish all of this from Japanese much lower industrial base. And this is without thinking of management practices, shipping, time needed to achieve this and all the other myriad of factors that impact production. At the same time you have to build ships, rifles, tanks, ammunition and etc. Not to mention you need to take men from working population and regruit them as soldiers, mariners and airmen. As I said theoretically anything is possible, but I would say very, very highly unlikely at the least, because the problem is that you have to build and do so many other things before you can even build airplane factories.

[dtravel]

Marovici covers the basics of it.  Expansion of industry on that scale does NOT happen quickly.  Yes if they actually had total control of the DEI, China, Siberia and India the Japanese could have eventually built up their industries to rival the US.  In a couple of generations.  Assuming a massive change in Japanese culture and worldview.
 
Remember that the issued Japanese officer's sidearm had an unpleasant tendency to fire if pressure was applied to the side.  (One has to wonder how many said officers got shot in the leg by their own holstered pistol.)  But they didn't change it for a whole host of reasons.  They couldn't afford to, couldn't build enough of another model to replace them with and simply didn't think they needed to!  Weapons and equipment were not important to victory, just proper Bushido spirit.  Every weapon was the personal property of the Emperor (marked with the Imperial Chrysathinum), which implies a mindset against impersonal mass production because every one of them has to have the personal touch to be worthy of the Emperor.  Etc. etc. etc.

[pauk]

ORIGINAL: dtravel

Marovici covers the basics of it.  Expansion of industry on that scale does NOT happen quickly.  Yes if they actually had total control of the DEI, China, Siberia and India the Japanese could have eventually built up their industries to rival the US.  In a couple of generations.  Assuming a massive change in Japanese culture and worldview.

now we are using philosophycal arguments, eh?

It seems that quit a lot guys here have arrogant attitude about Japan in general. I will stop here because i will be accused about go into politics, again (but i have no idea why i was accused about that - i was speaking only about Opium wars, colonialisam etc - which is a history, right?...now back to the topic):

The truth is what you said, that quite a lot officers and war leaders consider "Bushido" as important to victory. But your statement shows ignorance at the same time: why? because "Bushido", "Banzai" evolved in to a main "weapon" after it becomes clear that Japan will lose the war and they can't do nothing about that. (kamikazes werent introduced at the start of the war, right?)

Japan has always considering "human factor" as most important (therefore they trained few but elite CV pilots instead of massive trained pilots, they trained ship crew in most dangerous conditions - and their crew was exceptional in night sightings!) but saying that they felt weapons aren't important for their victory doesn't hold the water.

They developed Zero and latter quite a few very good fighters
I wouldn't call their cruisers junk (BBs as well).

Yes, you may point that they failed to produce better designs while they still had a time their because their own stupidy - and i won't discuss about that. We all know how many bad assumptions and predictions Japan made in WW II, based on their wrong assumptions (lets not forget that Japan is totally different culture even today - so it is not suprising that they underestimated their opponents especially because they were closed society until last 70 or so years after the Meiji reforms).

Couple of generations? You are too harsh IMO... i think that MacArthur proved that if you give Japanese resources and chance they will take it, adopt themselfs and learn quite quickly.

THIS IS A REPLAY TO AFBs, not to Dtravel

Back to game terms. Despite all posts by guys which certainly have respect from all community (Chez, Amiral..etc) so they aren't just JFB as me[:D] you still missing the point. I do not know is it intentional or some of folks here just can't figure that.

- industry can't be expanded quickly and in great ammount. If you expand your ac industry you cant do it with armament or naval shipyards in the same time. Try it while you still didn't capture oilfields/resources or do it after you've captured it badly damaged and you will be screwed in late 42!

- playing a Sir Robin defence is actually one of great benefit for Japanese. It helping to Japan to capture SRA centers intact; subs on evacuation duties means no Japanese convoys are hurt.... etc, etc... so all whiners who complain here it is not historical should ask themself "what i did to prevent runing/expanding japanese industry"?

But of course, it is not a pleasent question and i'm not surpised why so many AFB just ignoring facts stated by guys i've mentioned. Sorry AFB, but you are making me laugh! You are just siting for a one year and waiting for your toys and in the same time complaining "hey it is not historical - foul!" about Japanese players which preparing for a hard times.

Try to put a good defence and you will found that "fantasy Japan game" isn't likely to be happen. So, what if he build a hundreds of Bettys or Tonies or Zekes in late 1943 Mike? If you attrited (sp?) Japanese air force you cant expect that worse japanese planes flown by 20-30 or even 50 exp pilots can win over Corsairs, Hellcats, P-38J?

I've lurked in one new AAR where players talked about one of AFB (suprisingly he have my simpaties![:)]) jumped in japanese boots and found himself not in easy situation by 1943!

Of course, he did make a few big mistakes in the game due lack of experience i assume, but it clearly shows that Allies arent hopeless as you guys think...

ok, that was it....

[Mike Scholl]

"Couple of generations? You are too harsh IMO... i think that MacArthur proved that if you give Japanese resources and chance they will take it, adopt themselfs and learn quite quickly."
 
....But only after you beat them senseless, rip out the current leadership by the roots, burn down all their cities, and shove Democracy down their throats....

[Mike Scholl]

"Try to put a good defence and you will found that "fantasy Japan game" isn't likely to be happen. So, what if he build a hundreds of Bettys or Tonies or Zekes in late 1943 Mike? If you attrited (sp?) Japanese air force you cant expect that worse japanese planes flown by 20-30 or even 50 exp pilots can win over Corsairs, Hellcats, P-38J?"

I didn't say anything about what type of defense the Allied player had made.  IRL, the Japanese had made splendid progress in siezing all of the SRA (true, they didn't have the option of reading a thread on "How to take the resources without damage by manipulating the game system", so they had to accept the hand reality dealt them).  I only pointed out that even WITH a very successfull "expansion phase" they weren't able to produce anything even close to the figures Arkady was reporting.   Don't you ever get tired of chewing on "straw dogs"?

[pauk]

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

....But only after you beat them senseless, rip out the current leadership by the roots, burn down all their cities, and shove Democracy down their throats....

Thanks. I think your post confirms 100% what i wrote.

[pauk]

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
I didn't say anything about what type of defense the Allied player had made.  IRL, the Japanese had made splendid progress in siezing all of the SRA (true, they didn't have the option of reading a thread on "How to take the resources without damage by manipulating the game system", so they had to accept the hand reality dealt them). 

So, you run out the arguments and you have to throw insults against all Japanese players accusing them they are manipulating game system.... very nice, Mike, just keep posting in case that someone didn't realise what kind of person you are.

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
I only pointed out that even WITH a very successfull "expansion phase" they weren't able to produce anything even close to the figures Arkady was reporting. 

Yes, they were/are small, unskilled and yellow people.


 

Don't you ever get tired of chewing on "straw dogs"?

Funny, i thought about asking you the same question. But i didn't because you just can't recede (?) from your arrogant attitude. That is sad, because even my pupils can evolve in the way of thinking....

[Honda]

ORIGINAL: dtravel

Marovici covers the basics of it.  Expansion of industry on that scale does NOT happen quickly.  Yes if they actually had total control of the DEI, China, Siberia and India the Japanese could have eventually built up their industries to rival the US.  In a couple of generations.  Assuming a massive change in Japanese culture and worldview.

Imperial Japan had plans to equal Soviet industrial capacity (maybe not equal, but came close enough to fight a prolonged war that can be won) by year 1952. That was on late 30s early 40s I think. I interested, I can look it up and write exactly who presented that and in what conference.

[Andy Mac]

I had sworn to myself not to get reinvolved in this debate but I guess I must I cannot stop myself
 
I am an AFB (TM) not hiding it I dont play Japan (just have no real interest)
 
My view is based on ONE game of mine and follow on research is that there is an issue on Hellcats but I think most people agree with me on that.
 
2nd ACR yes in that game I pushed hard but my pools were in good shape before the Marianas op but 200 a day Hellcat losses are UNSUSTAINABLE by the Allies in the face of 144 replacements and that was what I was suffering (I had 350+ Hellcats on CVR's and over 250 in pool before Marianas OP so over 600 spare fighters plus another 100+ in spare replacement sqns) sorry I view that as a reasonable surplus the Japanese could sustain 4 or 5 times my loss and keep coming I could not because my pool was to fragile.
 
Your point would be valid re Zamboanga had I lost because of aircraft pools in reality I lost because I got greedy and opportunistic not because of the production system.
 
Re Japanese production do I think its too good YES, does the sir Robin help the Japanese YES (but not as much as some think) most of my opponents leave Palamebang alone until they can destroy every engineer on site by ground attack / all the time producing max OIL because the allies cannot turn it off.
 
I dont complain because this is a game and thats fair enough but standing and fighting would make no difference to that tactic.
 
If my opponents give me an oppening I will stand and fight in SRA but the allies need to read the tea leaves well in order to achieve it (Against Pauk I tried fortress Singapore trying to reinforce heavily because of his turn 1 and totally misread the signs and got my ass kicked because of it).
 
I have played 10 Allied games and not once after mid 43 have I ran out of 1st rate fighters prior to mid 43 I am short all the time buts how its supposed to be isnt it ?
 
My question is simple is the VP per factory destroyed calculated based on Historic Japanese production
 
To use Mikes numbers from above
 
ZEKES..........Arkady is getting 712 p/m.....historically the Japanese produced 287 in Oct, 1943
JUDYS...........Arkady is getting 262 p/m.....Historically the Japanese produced 46 in Oct., 1943
BETTIES........Arkady is getting 344 p/m.....historically the Japanese produced 53 in Oct., 1943
OSCARS........Arkady is getting 401 p/m.....historically the Japanese produced 145 in Oct, 1943
TOJOS...........Arkady is getting 152 p/m.....historically the Japanese produced 47 in Oct., 1943
GEORGES......Arkady is getting 93 p/m......historically the Japanese produced 14 in Oct., 1943
TONYS...........Arkady is getting 96 p/m......historically the Japanese produced 105 in Oct, 1943

If the VP assumption in the games VP ratios for victory  are based on destroying 287 Zeke Factories then actually I am content. Not only does the production system penalise the Japanese for expanding industry throughg supply absorption and HI use but it also gives me 3x the assumed VP's when I torch it. As long as the VP's for Strategic Bombing were calculated based on HISTORIC capability then in GAME terms I have no issue with this (Hellcats excepted !!!! [:D][:D]).
 
Andy

[Feinder]

Or some entrepeneurial soul could "simply"* produce a collection of scenarios where

1. Static Allied and Japanese production numbers. You get what was close to historically delivered. No tweaking by either side.
2. Japan and Allied are able to control production.

* = Um. No, it's not simple unfortunately. Every tried to create a scenario? It's a horrible business that sucks the soul right out of you. And then you get an endless stream of folks b_tching at you because they don't like it, and want their side tweaked. Those same folks haven't produced any scenarios yet either.

-F-

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: pauk

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
I didn't say anything about what type of defense the Allied player had made.  IRL, the Japanese had made splendid progress in siezing all of the SRA (true, they didn't have the option of reading a thread on "How to take the resources without damage by manipulating the game system", so they had to accept the hand reality dealt them). 

So, you run out the arguments and you have to throw insults against all Japanese players accusing them they are manipulating game system.... very nice, Mike, just keep posting in case that someone didn't realise what kind of person you are. What insult? The thread is here for all to read.... I just pointed out that IRL nobody had that opportunity.

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
I only pointed out that even WITH a very successfull "expansion phase" they weren't able to produce anything even close to the figures Arkady was reporting. 

Yes, they were/are small, unskilled and yellow people. Again with the "straw dogs". Where did I say ANYTHING even vaguely resembling such a remark? If you are a racist, that's your affair - but don't try to paint me with the same brush. 

Don't you ever get tired of chewing on "straw dogs"?

Funny, i thought about asking you the same question. But i didn't because you just can't recede (?) from your arrogant attitude. That is sad, because even my pupils can evolve in the way of thinking....

Actually, the only arrogance here is yours, PAUK. You arrogantly assume you are capable of understanding plain English...., yet your responses show that either you haven't paid a bit of attention to what was being said....., or you can't understand s simple straightforward sentence. Do you have the faintest idea what a "straw dog" argument is?

[pauk]

ORIGINAL: Feinder

1. Static Allied and Japanese production numbers. You get what was close to historically delivered. No tweaking by either side.
2. Japan and Allied are able to control production.

Yes, that may be a good idea. I proposed similar idea with additional scenarios/mods while standard scen 15 should remain for the people who want to play it.

But, as you stated it is not going to happen. I just don't understand why someone would bitching at mod - it is ther choice, after all - you can play it or not.....

[2ndACR]

Andy,
 
 I did not want to aim that at you. I have read your AAR. But having 600 fighters in the pool is not really enough. I know. I have seen a 1,000 a/c pool evaporate in a week of heavy combat. I was mainly trying to make the point of "some" need to try the Japanese side of things before harping on this subject of "outproducing". And after watching that pool evaporate, is why I want PDU's so that I can downgrade and shift a/c around.
 
 I do agree that the Hellcat pool is too little and the nightfighter version needs to be trimmed back some and switched over to day fighter.

[Andy Mac]

Hehehe if converting all the allied planes to Hellcats and havin 4 months production stockpiled is not enough then how long are the allies supposed to wait 6 months and have enough for another 36 hours fighting ?
 
Not having a go 2nd ACR but how long are the allies supposed to wait I genuinely dont know it takes about 3 - 4 months production to upgrade all Allied Carriers. Had I dont nothing at all since I got Hellcats in mid 43 and not fought the battles with KB around Aitape I could perhaps have added another 300 to the pool but at the attrition rate I was facing thats just not enough. Its weird the allies get Hellcats BEFORE the Japs get Zekes and I am willing to bet almost anything that PZB had upgraded all his carrier fighters to Zekes months before my carriers were ready for action.

[Feinder]

Just theorizing here, since neither of the two games I'm going to talk about are into 1943 yet. I could be way off, but here goes...

I expect the cost to Allied planes (esp since we are talking about Naval Aviation), is directly related to the status of KB. Of KB remains intact into late 1943, and Japan is able to sustain a training program you probably will see a significant risk to Allied pools. Keeping KB intact into 1943 might be challenging, but training isn't that hard.

Game #1 = Late Dec-42. KB is fully intact. My opponent has a very active training program, and has most certainly is able to keep quality pilots on KB (considering the losses we've both taken when 4e launch vs. him = I've definately hurt his groups, but he's definately replacing with quality, because he is able to down plenty of B-17s each time they sortie, and I have yet to score a hit). I am also down several CVs (and basically trying to just keep my head low for now). In this case, with an active mega-KB with quality pilots, I think Hellcat pools -will- be challenged in late 43.

Game #2 = Late May-42. KB is sunk (all 6). My opponent has a very active training program, and should be able to field quality pilots, if anything thru LBA. However, I will most certainly be on the offensive (I have lost only a single RN CV-45. By going on the offensive, and keeping the pressure on Japan's own pools and experienced pilots, I -expect- that I will be able to achieve closer to historical results. Again, I don't know what the long run will be. While I disagree with the premise that Japan would (basically ever) be able to out-produce the US, I think the game situation probably lends to the quality and employment of those planes.

-F-

[mogami]

Hi, Next turn I will post my production. Game is in sept 1943 (no PDU) Of course I do not touch factories set to RD at start. (For over 2 years I've pointed out human players should leave them alone unless they mod the scenario and set them all to size 0 at start)

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR
Once the Corsair arrives, just about everything the Japanese fly will fall in droves.

Not true at all. Pauk just kicked the crap out of Corsairs in his game (and there are other AAR's where this isn't the case as well) so this is a false statement. If the Japanese player keeps a good pilot training program going he will keep air superiority with the allies even with Corsairs flying around. PZB isn't having too much trouble vs them either.

Jim

[Andy Mac]

My take on this as the opponent in both games Jim is Pilots in the 75 - 90 range in Tonies/Tojos/Jacks can hold there own or defeat Allied 60 - 65xp pilots in Corsairs and will win against 60 - 65 pilots in Spits/Lightnings and Warhawks but will take losses doing so which I hope the Jpanese cannot replace with equivalent pilots. Pauk didnt kick the crap out of corsairs but because I fed them in piecemeal he was able to win the battle but loss wise it was about even in terms of Corsairs v jap types the imbalance was mostly in my Spits and Warhawks who were annihalated by Jacks Tonies and Tojos because of the pilot xp difference.

Tonies and Tojos and Franks interestingly seem to do very well (comparatively) v Hellcats I think it might be firepower

Zeke family are useless v Hellcats who eat em up but are very good v Spit VB's and P40's and hold there own if trained against slightly older LBFighters. (P38Js and Thuds do well against Zekes though so Dur v Firepower is probably the reason Zekes struggle against Hellcats and other heavy fighters)

Spitfire VB, P38G and P40E at 60 - 65 xp are not sufficiently better than Japanese fighters to offset the xp difference I am facing.

Interestingly PZB has a tactic of throwing hundreds of untrained pilots at me almost guarding 1 or 2 elite fighter sqns in top notch planes and it seems to work well as my pilots go for the easy kills and get punished by the aces

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac
Had I dont nothing at all since I got Hellcats in mid 43 and not fought the battles with KB around Aitape I could perhaps have added another 300 to the pool but at the attrition rate I was facing thats just not enough.

This is something the Japanese players/commentators don't seem to understand. They make grand pronouncements about how the allies can change their air groups to this that and the other, but they seem to lack the basic understanding that LIMITED replacement pools make it impossible to do much at all given the horrendous losses suffered with the combat engine.

In my game I had to use P-26A and P-35A fighters until Dec 42 because I simply didn't have the air frames to upgrade those squadrons. Japanese players NEVER complain about the inability to upgrade or swap out air frame types for their groups because they enjoy such a huge surplus of air frames. They then simply assume the allies have the same kind of freedom, which they do not.

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

My take on this as the opponent in both games Jim is Pilots in the 75 - 90 range

Exactly, I did say Japan needed to keep up a good pilot training program. But with China sitting there Japan should have no trouble keeping his pilots highly trained at all unless he totally neglects it. My point stands, the Corsair is no uber plane that wins the game like the Japanese players keep pronouncing them to be.

They are definitely a good air frame but not the game winner they seem to think they are.

Jim