Theoretical invasion of England

[borner]

you just are not thinking 4th dimentionally!!!!

[Blackhorse]

I agree that, under the circumstances extant in the Summer of 1940, it was virtually impossible for the Germans to invade England.

But back in the 1970s(?) Kenneth Macksey wrote a nice little alt-history book about the Germans might have pulled it off.

IIRC he assumed that the Luftwaffe immediately went after air superiority -- attacking radar stations and air strips from the get-go, and sticking to it. In a nice touch, each of the daily aircraft losses in his hypothetical scenario were taken from actual daily losses from the (later) historical months when the Luftwaffe was focused on reducing British fighter strength. This was the strongest part of the book, demonstrating how the Germans could have achieved air supremacy by July.

For the invasion itself, he assumed that the German plan to cordon off the narrowest parts of the channel with mines, U-boats, E-boats and shore based artillery (backed by Stukas) successfully detered the British from trying to run the Home Fleet into the channel, after an initial sortie was repulsed. IMHO, this was the weakest assumption in the book. However, in the narrow Channel waters it is likely that the German mine/U-boat/E-boat/air combination would have exacted a terrible toll on the British fleet, if it had been committed.

He assumed that the invasion took place in July, before most of the British beach defenses were erected. He recognized that the German invasion would be makeshift (I think he had only 3 divisions landing initially, but I read the book a long time ago).

In the book, after a couple of weeks, the German advantage in mobile forces is decisive. The tiny British armor reserve is crushed by a handful of 88's when the Brits try to stop the Germans from flanking the London defenses . . . and the book ends with the British leadership (and fleet!) decamping to Canada to continue the war from there.

A nice read and well-researched. But it just goes to demonstrate that the Germans would have had to do a lot of things exactly right to have even the slimmest chance of pulling off a Sealion.

[Hornblower]

Its not only important to consider IF they could have landed the troops, but how and if they could keep them supplied. 
I agree that this whole discussion is based on the assumption that the RAF lost the battle of Britian.
 
The royal navy would have pulled back every ship and sub possible from other fronts to break up the line of supply from france/Netherlands to whatever port the German Army took – and they would need a port.  You can’t fly in a tank or heavy field pieces.       

[borner]

Interesting concept. Would have required a clarity of thought i am not sure existed in the German high command, and gaining command of the skys in July would have been very difficult.

[Raver508]

TOAW 3 certainly has a couple of good ones.  I've played them myself and they're well worth a look if you have an obsession to feed. 

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

I know that Germany never really got that close to an invasion of England. However, has anyone ever seen a game, or a paper that tries to accurately play out such a scenario? I'm curious what the German plans might have been, what English defenses would have been like, what likely outcomes were predicted. It's an intriguing what-if that I never hear about.

I suppose one would have to pre-suppose that the UK had lost the battle of Britain and that for all intents and purposes the RAF was nearly wiped out.

You get to play this out in one of the naval miniatures games that Clash of Arms publishes. Not pretty for the Germans once the RN light forces get into the canal barge flotillas.

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

ORIGINAL: niceguy2005

I know that Germany never really got that close to an invasion of England. However, has anyone ever seen a game, or a paper that tries to accurately play out such a scenario? I'm curious what the German plans might have been, what English defenses would have been like, what likely outcomes were predicted. It's an intriguing what-if that I never hear about.

I suppose one would have to pre-suppose that the UK had lost the battle of Britain and that for all intents and purposes the RAF was nearly wiped out.

In Len Deighton's book there is quite nice small passage about "Sea Lion" (forces allocated, landing zones and directions of advance)...

Len Deighton is well know author of spy novels but, what is less known, is very very good historian with several most excellent books:

- Fighter: The True Story of the Battle of Britain
- Blitzkrieg: From the Rise of Hitler to the Fall of Dunkirk
- Blood, Tears and Folly: An Objective Look at World War II

Wholeheartedly reccomended! [:)]


Leo "Apollo11"

[Apollo11]

Hi all,

Also, let us not forget that Luftwaffe High Command was toteally inept - any one of us could have and would have done better than them... [:D]


The Germans had enough air power to crush RAF in resonable time but they completely missmanaged their force and totally inadequatly choose their targets!


Let me explain:

#1
We all know (and every man in England knew) that there were just a few factories (with one main) that made Rolls Royce Merlin engines. The Germans didn't know (or didn't care) - this was inteligence blunder of prime magnitude.

#2
We all know (and every man in England knew) that there was just a few factories that were making Spitfire and Hurricane fighters. The Germans didn't know (or didn't care) - this was another inteligence blunder of prime magnitude.


What Germans could have done is:

a)
Use the Kampfgruppe 100 to be a "pathfinder" and then use all available other bombers to bomb at night the few British Rolls Royce engine factories and few Hurricane and Spitfire aircraft factories!

The Kampfgruppe 100 possesed both "X-Gerät" and "Knickebein" and was accurate to 100m (this was more than enough).

All other Luftwaffe bombers had "Knickebein" for basic navigation and could then use the initial attack of Kampfgruppe 100.

The RAF had NOTHING to stop Germans at night!

b)
During day use all other bombers and all fighters to continuously attack all airfields and all radar stations in England en masse!

c)
Never attack cities (this uwas tottaly unecessary and totally stupid way of using force).


Leo "Apollo11"

[Japan]

There is a huge amount of arrogance arround here.

Eisenhover think that if Germany would secured Air Supremacy over UK in 1940 they would had a easy victory aiganst the UK, so sayes
Hugh Dowding, and a large quantity of Officers in the Admiralety... Actualy when thinking about it there is NONE who sayes otherwise.
You can see the intertwines in BBC WW2 by Thems.

I don't know gents, shall we assume they know more about this subject then us? or shall we say they are incorrect and that "I know better"...
It is very funny to see many of you claiming that all the hundreds of intelligence workers, analysts, historians, educated military officers, and Evan state leders to be wrong.

Personally i prefer to think that they are far more educated on the subject then any of you, they have access to millions of pages of intelligence more then you, and many of them have a military education and good understanding of the different factors involved, something most here never comes close to, and Evan if you had access to the education and understanding of the different factors like Logistics ect, then you can still not answer the question because huge amounts of material and intelligence about the condition of the British army, and the German chances of success is still classified.

I prefere to liston to the ones who have the actual knowlage instead of the ones on this forum who sayes that "no no they could never never never have done it" blah blah.. as that is a truly unquallefied bs... Only the ones who has accses to the information, and knows how to read and understand it, and who has the knowlage of all factors involved can actualy make a quallefied opinion... and those individuals sayed that UK would definetly been invaded if the RAF had been destroyed. So, now as you "allied fan boy" are going to challenge what they say, then please explain what you base it on? They base it on millions of pages of intelligence, qualified analyses and huge quantities of data... what do you base your statements on? Also, are you actualy quallefied to make any claims in this subject?

[JeffroK]

I'm not sure I'd write of the Germans.

Afterall, their defeat of France was impossible wasnt it?

But, it would have to havebeen planned before May40.

No Weserburung

No Airdrop on the Netherlands. (Still Eban Emael and small ops)

This would preserve their Fleet & Airborne force,which may have seen the France campaign take a bit longer.

Hit England as soon as possible after the end in France

As mentioned, the Luftwaffe smashes RAF airfields and RDF stations.

IMHO, they could have got ashore against an illprepared British Army. But every days delay saw a few more guns, another AFV or half a dozen rifles rearm the BEF!

But it would be very touch & go, if the British High Command had learned from France, they might fail.

Resupply & defence against the RN plus every aircraft the RAF could get into the sky would be very marginal.

[Japan]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I'm not sure I'd write of the Germans.

Afterall, their defeat of France was impossible wasnt it?

But, it would have to havebeen planned before May40.

No Weserburung

No Airdrop on the Netherlands. (Still Eban Emael and small ops)

This would preserve their Fleet & Airborne force,which may have seen the France campaign take a bit longer.

Hit England as soon as possible after the end in France

As mentioned, the Luftwaffe smashes RAF airfields and RDF stations.

IMHO, they could have got ashore against an illprepared British Army. But every days delay saw a few more guns, another AFV or half a dozen rifles rearm the BEF!

But it would be very touch & go, if the British High Command had learned from France, they might fail.

Resupply & defence against the RN plus every aircraft the RAF could get into the sky would be very marginal.

Why don't you just quote the Thousends of Inteligence Operators, Analysts and members of the British Military Ledership, they sayed if RAF lost the Air UK will be Invaded, and they had acces to the information and the quallifications to say so.
I don't think anyone here has the quallefication to claim something different.

[Speedysteve]

Christ. Your attitude stinks...people have the RIGHT to discuss a topic and subject, debating pro's and con's. You have NO right to tell people that their view is nul and void.
 
Move along.......

[JeffroK]

I missed this as I had the Green Button on. (How many have me Green lighted?)

And I thought I was putting a German Invasion into the maybe possible bracket!

Military Intelligence, a contradiction in terms.
British Military Leadership, even more so.

But I'm not doubting that if the Luftwaffe had better leadership and direction from Higher Levels it might have won Air Superiority.

This is not however Air Supremacy, RAF Fighters, Bombers, Trainers, Coastal Command, FAA aircraft would still have thrown themselves into the battle. Maybe even with the zeal that japanese Kamikaze pilotots were expected to do in the defense of their homeland.

German resources would have stretched at the best, and any lucky hits by this substantial number of aircraft, in addirion to the efforts of the RN would have seen them broken.

Also, Britain was ripe for the picking in June-July, by late August-September IMHO they had reformed enough to put up a strong fight.


And who the hell are "You can see the intertwines in BBC WW2 by Thems."

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Japan

Why don't you just quote the Thousends of Inteligence Operators, Analysts and members of the British Military Ledership, they sayed if RAF lost the Air UK will be Invaded, and they had acces to the information and the quallifications to say so.

Japan, you've posted this several times, but you haven't backed up your words with any actual quotes from one of these "thousands" of sources. It's time to put up or shut up. [:)]

[Arkain]

i think one thing you have forget.

You think about causaltis, air/navy dominance etc. but think about norway, crete, barbarossa, wacht am rhein. This all were "hop or top" campaigns. The same accourding to operation seelöwe, if you have the minor chance to invade the homeland you do it, regardless of the causaltis. If you beat the UK you won the war in the west for ever. Like the war against russia for the east.
If the uk lost the airdominace, germany could build up a shipfreecoridor to land on england. No english overwatership could harm the invasion. Remember the Repulse, King Georg and all other overwaterships which was destroyed by air. Also you forget the dominance of the german submarine, at this time the submarine was a horror for the uk. Think about 50 Typ VIIIC in the street of calais and the whole airdominance of the german luftwaffe.
Seelöwe was possible, but only if germany gets the whole airdominance over UK and that was impossible because of the lack of longrangefighter and middlerange bomber. 

[Mac67]

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: Japan

Why don't you just quote the Thousends of Inteligence Operators, Analysts and members of the British Military Ledership, they sayed if RAF lost the Air UK will be Invaded, and they had acces to the information and the quallifications to say so.

Japan, you've posted this several times, but you haven't backed up your words with any actual quotes from one of these "thousands" of sources. It's time to put up or shut up. [:)]

I think his avatar tells you everything you need to know about his posting motivation [;)]

A few years ago I saw a documentary here where it claimed that "Operation Sealion" was just a ruse to demoralize the British Public, in an attempt to get them to oust Churchill and sign a peace treaty with the Germans. They interviewed one of Hitler's valets who stated that the whole time Hitler's mind was preoccupied with invading Russia, and that he did not take "Sealion" seriously.

Fact? Fiction? I guess we will never know for sure. Not outside the bounds of possiblity though I think.

[Dixie]

ORIGINAL: Japan

Why don't you just quote the Thousends of Inteligence Operators, Analysts and members of the British Military Ledership, they sayed if RAF lost the Air UK will be Invaded, and they had acces to the information and the quallifications to say so.
I don't think anyone here has the quallefication to claim something different.

Of course, you're right military intelligence can't ever be wrong can it [;)] The analysts etc who would have made these claims wouldn't have known what we know now, they didn't have access to all the information we do. Remember that this was a time when the Wehrmacht had just rolled over arguably the strongest army in the world on paper in just a few weeks. The fear of invasion and the recent Battle of France would have led to an overestimation of German capabilities.

Gaining air superiority was the first step in the planning of Sealion, without control of the air Sealion couldn't have been attempted. If the RAF had been beaten over Southern England there was no guarantee that any invasion would have worked. The remnants of the Army and RAF would have been thrown into action, there were still the bombers and coastal units (weak though they were) and most of the Royal Navy.


Just because someone at any specific time says something, based on their particular guesswork and intelligence, it does not make it true.
For example:
Why not quote the thousands of intelligence operators, analysts and members of the British military who said that Japan was an incompetant military opponent?
Why not quote Bomber Harris who said that bombing Germany's cities would end the war?
Why not quote Hitler who was ordering entire army groups to lift the seige of Berlin?
Why not quote the Frencg who thought the Maginot line would protect them from the Germans?
Why not quote the people in the UK who said 'Uncle Joe' was really our friend and a decent guy?
Why not quote the hundreds of experts who said that high speed aerial combat was impossible?

[Mac67]

Getting back to NG's original question, there was a Sealion add-on for Talonsofts West Front game.

http://www.neoseeker.com/Games/Products/PC/sealion/

I have never played it so I have no idea how close it comes to being anywhere near accurate.

[Rasputitsa]

Almost all of what is being discussed is hindsight. In 1940 very few people would have expected France to fall so fast, the German High Command had no plan when they found themselves at the Channel coast, with only 22 miles to cross. 'Sea Lion' would have to have been planned as an immediate follow up to 'Fall Gelb', with all planning and preparation taking place simultaneously.

In 1940 very few people would have expected the BEF to be able to escape from France. Hiltler did not let the British escape, he like almost everyone else did not expect that an evacuation could succeed. The British Admiralty, who were in the best position to judge, thought that only 45,000 men might be saved.

In 1940 very few people knew the potential of the British air defence system, nothing like it existed anywhere else. The Luftwaffe failed to appreciate its effectiveness and had no plan to combat it. The RAF would not have been destroyed, as before losses became critical, their forces would have been withdrawn beyond effective range and held for the for the invasion. It was beyond the power of the Luftwaffe to totally destroy industrial complexes. The Allies took much longer to achieve this against Germany in 1943/44/45, with vastly greater forces. The Luftwaffe had nowhere near the resources or time available to achieve this, even if they had known what to hit. Most bombing attacks blew out the windows and took down the roofs, but machine tools are rarely destroyed and can quickly be set up again somewhere else. The best you could hope for was temporary disruption.

On the point about British suicide attacks, when Scharnhorst and Gniesenau were making their daylight Channel dash, six Swordfish bi-plane torpedo bombers were ordered to attack them. They had expected to attack at night and knew that a daylight mission would be suicide. The base commander at Manston called the Admiralty in London and pleaded for the attack to be cancelled. The reply was that, the Royal Navy would attack the enemy whenever and where ever he could be found. Lt. Commander Esmonde took off with his flight, knowing that they had very little chance of returning. In 1939/40 German victories looked easy, but that was because their opponents either did not have the will, or else the power, to resist. When confronted by a resolute defence the Germans suffered serious casualties. Had the Germans attempted to cross the Channel the fighting would have been vicious and brutal, but then that's using hindsight.

[TulliusDetritus]

The land aspect: Germans would have won the battle. Do not forget the heavy equipment of the British Army was left in Dunkirk. And that the British did NOT have a huge army.

But can they land their forces? The Royal Navy is in this equation. But if the RN wants to stop the invasion they MUST be close to German airbases... And WW2 is a different war: mobile, AND the best weapon against ships is NOT another ship but planes. In other words, the classic British Doctrine [big navy, small army] may be in big trouble, since planes are now in the equation. And Germans have lots.

But the same can be said about the German invasion force. The British planes are in the equation as well.

In my opinion it could have worked (with enormous losses, but hey, that would have been a decisive victory, the end of the war, kaput: a last supreme effort should be part of the equation). Thanks the Big Manitou it didn't [:)]