Near misses

[GaryChildress]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Kwik E Mart

PS - was the curve fit on a sinker, screwball or slider?

How about one of those Luis Tiant / Bill Lee mega-curve balls? You remember, the ones that looked like they were going behind the batter's head until the last instant when they bent right into the strike zone. Actually caused some players who faced them for the first time to dive onto the plate to avoid being hit - just before the umpire called "Stee-rike!" [:D]

Luis Tiant? Bill Lee? Are you sure that wasn't Bugs Bunny? [:D]

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Kwik E Mart

PS - was the curve fit on a sinker, screwball or slider?

How about one of those Luis Tiant / Bill Lee mega-curve balls? You remember, the ones that looked like they were going behind the batter's head until the last instant when they bent right into the strike zone. Actually caused some players who faced them for the first time to dive onto the plate to avoid being hit - just before the umpire called "Stee-rike!" [:D]

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say that was before my time!

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Kwik E Mart

PS - was the curve fit on a sinker, screwball or slider?

How about one of those Luis Tiant / Bill Lee mega-curve balls? You remember, the ones that looked like they were going behind the batter's head until the last instant when they bent right into the strike zone.

You left out Curt Simmons..., another master of the big slow curve that buckled the batter's knees.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Kwik E Mart

PS - was the curve fit on a sinker, screwball or slider?

How about one of those Luis Tiant / Bill Lee mega-curve balls? You remember, the ones that looked like they were going behind the batter's head until the last instant when they bent right into the strike zone. Actually caused some players who faced them for the first time to dive onto the plate to avoid being hit - just before the umpire called "Stee-rike!" [:D]

Since E. fuscus is capable of viffing and has a reaction time about three times faster than a human, I'm sure they could make a knuckler look sick.

However, I did know a post-doc who could capture them in flight with a butterfly net. People who work in flight rooms develop good reflexes.

[witpqs]

Good anticipation, too.

Umm, Harry. Those aren't bats! [:D]

[Kwik E Mart]

Ummm.....that doesn't look like a bat.....

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Good anticipation, too.

Umm, Harry. Those aren't bats! [:D]

Yes, those are semi-tame pigeons in Saint Mark's Square, but the one I'm holding was definitely surprised! My kids worry when we go for a walk and pass near pigeons feeding on the ground--I have been known (once) to grab a flying pigeon out of the air.

[Grotius]

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say that was before my time!

Erm, does that make me a fossil for remembering Bill Lee and Luis Tiant? Those guys were great. Then again, they always lost in the end. I like my new Red Sox better.

Yes, those are semi-tame pigeons in Saint Mark's Square, but the one I'm holding was definitely surprised!

Nice photo, Harry. Er, is it safe to hold those things?

[Chad Harrison]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I can't believe that you read these posts . . .

Youre assuming I did read all them [:D]

I will be the first to admit that the field knowledge that many of you have in this area is way, way beyond my own level. When discussions get this detailed, as this one has, I am amazed at the knowledge base you all have.

So even if I had attempted to read all seven pages of this thread, I would have only understood about three posts of it. And two of those were mine [;)]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chad Harrison

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I can't believe that you read these posts . . .

Youre assuming I did read all them [:D]

I will be the first to admit that the field knowledge that many of you have in this area is way, way beyond my own level. When discussions get this detailed, as this one has, I am amazed at the knowledge base you all have.

So even if I had attempted to read all seven pages of this thread, I would have only understood about three posts of it. And two of those were mine [;)]

This might clear up things [:D]:

[Chad Harrison]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This might clear up things [:D]:

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up [:D]

I survived four years of college calculus (and thats four different classes, not the same one four times [;)]), and four more years of various civil engineering courses and I still look at the things that are being discussed in this thread, and others and . . . well . . yeah, that cartoon sums it up pretty nicely!

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: Grotius

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say that was before my time!

Erm, does that make me a fossil for remembering Bill Lee and Luis Tiant? Those guys were great. Then again, they always lost in the end. I like my new Red Sox better.

Yes, those are semi-tame pigeons in Saint Mark's Square, but the one I'm holding was definitely surprised!

Nice photo, Harry. Er, is it safe to hold those things?

I remember that era--I was in high school when Koufax and Drysdale were leading the Dodgers.

About the bird--you just have to be gentle and it won't lose its lunch. I still have my bat-handling gloves. I've also had five rabies shots...

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: Grotius

i'm gonna go out on a limb and say that was before my time!

Erm, does that make me a fossil for remembering Bill Lee and Luis Tiant? Those guys were great. Then again, they always lost in the end. I like my new Red Sox better.

Yes, those are semi-tame pigeons in Saint Mark's Square, but the one I'm holding was definitely surprised!

Nice photo, Harry. Er, is it safe to hold those things?

I remember that era--I was in high school when Koufax and Drysdale were leading the Dodgers.

About the bird--you just have to be gentle and it won't lose its lunch. I still have my bat-handling gloves. I've also had five rabies shots...

Now THATS what I would define as a "near miss"... [:'(]

[Tophat1815]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Chad Harrison

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I can't believe that you read these posts . . .

Youre assuming I did read all them [:D]

I will be the first to admit that the field knowledge that many of you have in this area is way, way beyond my own level. When discussions get this detailed, as this one has, I am amazed at the knowledge base you all have.

So even if I had attempted to read all seven pages of this thread, I would have only understood about three posts of it. And two of those were mine [;)]

This might clear up things [:D]:

I love this cartoon.

Are we there yet? Sorry hadn't asked today and didn't want anyone to think I'd had an accident or something.[;)]

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: Subchaser

It’s hard to analyze damage reports of all ships sunk during the war, so I took only IJN heavy cruisers damage reports. All 18 warship were lost due

Fatal damage caused by torpedoes – 10
Fatal damage caused by own torpedoes explosion – 3
Fatal damage caused by near-misses bombs – 3
Fatal damage caused by artillery fire – 1
Fatal damage caused by direct hit bombs – 1

Not sure how well the IJN Heavy Cruiser stat applies across all platforms, but assuming it's roughly representative (and probably on the high side), what we see is that the AE naval damage model does not accurately account for 17% of the ship losses. That's not a huge number, and one could probably find many other examples where the AE models are off from RL by more than 17%. So to put this all in perspective, yes, it would be nice if near misses were modeled and explicitly reported as such, but its definitely not a major issue.

Nice discussion, by the way, and congrats to all the participants for explicitly noting that a discussion is all this is, and not a "demand" aimed at the dev team.

[witpqs]

How do you figure that? Some hits that result in critical damage are from near-misses, their just not phrased that way in the messages and reports.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

How do you figure that? Some hits that result in critical damage are from near-misses, their just not phrased that way in the messages and reports.

Purely anecdotal, but I can't think of any WitP examples were 250lb bombs sunk or seriously damaged Heavy Cruisers or Battleships, although it definitely happened in RL. If all bombs have the potential, no matter how infinitesimal, to deliver a critical damage hit to EVERY naval platform, then you are correct and the game actually does model the impact (if not the language) of the near-miss. But I *think* the code does not allow that. I'll happily be proven wrong, as only the coders know for sure.

[witpqs]

If all bombs have the potential, no matter how infinitesimal, to deliver a critical damage hit to EVERY naval platform

I think this would be going too far.

At any rate, go back to Don Bowen's post. He said that the 'hit' chance of near-misses is in there, but the full damage potential is not modeled. And it's not going to be in AE (certainly not in initial release anyway).

[Dili]

Purely anecdotal, but I can't think of any WitP examples were 250lb bombs sunk or seriously damaged Heavy Cruisers or Battleships, although it definitely happened in RL.

I think everyone recognizes that the latitude of model damage in Witp was too strict specially comulative effects. You could have a CA get 25-40 bombs 250lb bombs and only a couple of AA guns were destroyed. So lets hope that is changed.

[Yamato hugger]

ORIGINAL: Dili

Purely anecdotal, but I can't think of any WitP examples were 250lb bombs sunk or seriously damaged Heavy Cruisers or Battleships, although it definitely happened in RL.

I think everyone recognizes that the latitude of model damage in Witp was too strict specially comulative effects. You could have a CA get 25-40 bombs 250lb bombs and only a couple of AA guns were destroyed. So lets hope that is changed.

Well why would it? Any given hit has the same chance to hit any given part of the ship. If hitting a certain AA gun was a 1% chance for example, then the odds of 5 hitting that SAME AA mount would be somewhere around .00001% chance. Remote but certainly possible. Real life a "dumb bomb" doesnt look at the target it is falling on and say to itself: "oh, Bob already hit there, I better land over there...".

As for the numbers of hits, that part has changed. WitP increased the numbers of hits and reduced the damage (I swear Im going to make a macro of that so I dont have to type it out every week).