The Shipwreck of Our Hopes: Japanese Side

[John 3rd]

I figure Truk's fuel can carry the initial attacks into Aussieland while I haul as much as possible out to the region.  Economics Minister Benoit will have to help there so I don't strip TOO much shipping for hauling fuel Eastwards.  My concern will be fuel at Kwajalein.  All the KB's AOs will move there and that should provide operational freedom for a while.
 
As to US CVs, I intend to attack eastward immediately to grab US attention.  The KB will move to that Thrust first to provide Cover and look for an early fight with the American Fleet.  In many ways this will be a diversion to keep America looking there prior to them realizing the real thrust is due south.  By that time I hope to be ashore in Australia with enough LBA to protect things.
 
This is the early thinking at least...
 

[Canoerebel]

Allied players aren't subject to being diverted by the KB early in the war.  The Allied player wants to stay as far away as possible.  So if the KB is in the Solomons or New Caledonia or the Line Islands, the Allied player would love to make a pleasure crusie to Oz or the DEI and pick off some strays.

[Q-Ball]

This should be interesting. All those flattops certianly changes things, one thing it will change, which the others have pointed out, that FUEL is going to be a problem. Make sure you plan well ahead for that.

The most important thing to do early as Japan is move fast. Don't waste a single day waiting for something (fuel, an escort, changing move modes, etc), if you can avoid it. The speed of your advance has much less to do with tactical force employment, and everything to do with having base forces, supplies, fuel, and shipping moving somewhere at the exact time. It is critically important to carefully plan your logistical pipeline.

I still have not perfected it, but mostly I just make sure every single ship and unit is doing SOMETHING.

[ny59giants]

While landing in Australia this early is a nice idea, I'm against it this early. Why?? I don't want to give those Australian divisions down around Sydney and Melbourne a place to go. I would rather wait until more forces are available and land just south of Townsville. Hopefully, but that time I have taken Darwin and moved down to Daly Waters. Thus, those troops moved into this part will be cut off and can only go into the interior of Australia. Plus, I don't want to tie down the 4th Division and more troops to what will quickly become a long term battle of attrition this soon. Using them early in the South Pacific is preferred, IMO.

Ideally, if we go the Australian route for conquest, the following will happen:
1) Capture of Darwin (early Jan 42).
2) Push down to Daly Waters (end of Jan 42)
3) Landing between Townsville and Brisbane (being carefully not to trigger extra reinforcements for Australians).
4) #3 triggers Allies to more to met this threat.
5) Hopefully a slow pace of conquest across the rest of northern Australia is seen as "normal."
6) Capture of Perth area (reasoning is to create a larger buffer zone of economic assets from Allied attacks).

Then, I think I will need the 33rd Division (Nagasaki) and 38th Division (Hong Kong) to BOTH go to either Luzon or Malaya to speed up conquest in order to free up more troops. Any suggestions on which to do or something else you have learned the hard way??

[Canoerebel]

As an Allied player I would die a thousand deaths if the Japanese took Darwin, didn't build it up, and kept me from it well into '43.  I need that base and it is perfectly situated in the Japanese vitals.

As an Allied player, I would shrug and smile if the Japanese took Portland Roads, Coen, Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton, Charters Towers, etc.  I don't really need them any time soon and, as Michael notes, it just gives me a safe target to shoot at. By the time I need them they'd be more of a millstone around the necks of the Japanese than a benefit to them. Land campaigns in Oz on good roads suits me just fine.

[John 3rd]

This is the whole point of the AAR at the moment.  Solid discussion and sound thinking.
 
Dan--I am curious, with your Allied perspective, what do YOU think is important to protect?  Darwin is a given for us.  What else do you think--within the realm of the possible--is essential to the Allies?
 
Michael--If you want to hold off the Eastern Landings then I could use 4th ID to grab all sorts of targets...
 
Qball--Boy I am aware of not allowing a moment's respite to the Allies!  Got to 'keep up the skeer!'
 

[Canoerebel]

Darwin would be my first target.
 
Next would be Port Moresby and Lunga and probably Luganville.
 
Then I have some decisions to make.  I think I'd focus on either Suva and Pago Pago (the both of them) or New Zealand's north island.  If I went either way I'd also want to take Nouma, Efate, and Koumac.
 
That's about as far as I think you can get before the Allies are in a position to begin contesting everything.
 
Both NZ and PP/Suva make Allied logistics problematic.  It really hurts to sail the long way to Oz and it should slow down the Allied advance.
 
 

[Q-Ball]

I think Dan's route is a good one, an alternative is after Darwin, go for Western Australia. It has much to recommend it:

1. If you take Kalgoorie, it's an Island; there is no possibility of the Aussie coming back via land.

2. You won't trigger the Australian extra reinforcements; it's "North" of Brisbane (AE north that is)

3. It's not the logistical commitment that Pago Pago/New Zealand are; it's closer to your fuel, and probably closer to where the troops will come from to invade (Java and Singapore)

Taking New Zealand is attractive it's not as attractive as it was in WITP, because the Allies can still get convoys to Australia off map, and it's also a tougher nut in AE; there are more NZ Militia then before. Given that it will take a couple months to get there, it's gonna take 3 divisions at least to clear the North Island, and that will trigger some reinforcments for the Allies. (Not sure what though).

It's harder to land a knock-out blow in AE as Japan, I am interested in what you guys come up with

[ny59giants]

From other AARs, it seems that the most vital economic asset to gather as much as you can is Oil. From what Brad, Mike Solli, and other Japanese Economic Ministers have written, those are the things that need to be repaired, if captured damaged. They say there is plenty of excess Refinery capacity in Japan. Just get it there.

Resources are mainly an issue of stockpiling them in Japan before the Allies sink too much of the merchant fleet.

Thus, I'm looking at conquest of territory from this perspective. The Aleutians and Burma have not been mentioned yet, but are part of the overall plan. India is off the menu, IMO.

In the South Pacific, I favor a capture of Pago Pago area after Rabaul and Port Moresby. To use a baseball analogy, this is the "hot corner."  By placing an Air HQ in this island group, Ms Nell/Betty can reach out to almost Bora Bora if there are non-CV escorted TF.  It makes Suva almost indefensible this early in the game. It would probably get a reaction by the Allies that does commit them to using their CVs, which we want in early 42 rather than late 42.  

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
In the South Pacific, I favor a capture of Pago Pago area after Rabaul and Port Moresby. To use a baseball analogy, this is the "hot corner."  By placing an Air HQ in this island group, Ms Nell/Betty can reach out to almost Bora Bora if there are non-CV escorted TF.  It makes Suva almost indefensible this early in the game. It would probably get a reaction by the Allies that does commit them to using their CVs, which we want in early 42 rather than late 42.  

Interesting, Michael. I'd bet it would be relatively easy to take, but how would you keep it supplied? Once cut off, it'll just wither on the vine.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
In the South Pacific, I favor a capture of Pago Pago area after Rabaul and Port Moresby. To use a baseball analogy, this is the "hot corner."  By placing an Air HQ in this island group, Ms Nell/Betty can reach out to almost Bora Bora if there are non-CV escorted TF.  It makes Suva almost indefensible this early in the game. It would probably get a reaction by the Allies that does commit them to using their CVs, which we want in early 42 rather than late 42.  

Interesting, Michael. I'd bet it would be relatively easy to take, but how would you keep it supplied? Once cut off, it'll just wither on the vine.

[ny59giants]

Mike - I think you need to take Suva, Luganville, and Lunga to have bases to protect your ships. Canton Island is needed as a base for Mavis searches. It is not something to be married to long term, but it does add time and distance for the Allies to reinforce NZ and Oz.

Another modification I got Juan to give Japan was Bulldozers!! The Independent Engineer Rgt now to fill out to 20 Engineer Vehicles and AF Construction and Naval Construction fill out to 12 Engineer Vehicles. The ability to expand bases and builds forts will help in the long term. His latest versions (v11) take this into account. You get 100 per month, so most of 42 will be prioritizing this. Push the Allies back and dig in behind the so called front lines.  

[John 3rd]

Good Points.

My thoughts are to go for a quick capture of Baker and Canton. Should immediately state our intentions to cause Trade Chaos. Force those Allied sea lanes to grow from the very start.

Phase One:
1. Since Canton can only take 6,000 troops, it would serve as an excellent Recon Base. We can put a small Base Force, Construction Bat, and decent Infantry group there so recapturing the island will take a real commitment. We can add 18-27 Mavis/Emily and that should provide decent warning of what is in the area.

2. Ditto for Baker.

Phase Two: Move south from there by taking the lightly held Savaii before grabbing Pago Pago.
1. Savaii doesn't have much in it and we can build that base up while waiting for a serious Infantry unit to arrive for the capture of Pago Pago. Michael and I both really like this place due to having up to three strong AF in close proxcimity for an Air HQ to affect. Ideally an Air Flotilla and Fleet HQ gets placed here. The Fleet can be based here for future raiding purposes.

Phase Three: Move back west by taking Suva and Noumea.

These Operations take place at the same time as Truk is advancing southwards towards Aussieland.

In theory the Japanese could have ALL this--with planning and NO surprises--by March 1, 1942. If that in fact happens then we look to strengthen, toughen, and establish the REAL perimeter. Imagine an Outer, Middle, and Inner set of Defense Lines. The Outer serves as a tripwire for Naval Battles, the Middle is FAR tougher, and the Inner is build under the presumption of late-1943/early-1944.

I'll see if I can create a visual aide from this!

[John 3rd]

Here is the strategic map with pretty colors detailing the proposed campaign through April 1, 1942:

A. Australia is essentially enveloped by three attacks. We take what we can, settle on a defensive line, pull out as many resourses, supplies, and HI as possible, and then stage a fighting retreat. Goal: Hold Aussieland through 1943?

B. Create a massive salient where Japanese forces can use April-May 1942 to take Suva and Noumea and finish the Outer Perimeter.

C. Up North we will take at least 50% of the Aleutians EARLY as well. Michael and I are mulling over Dutch Harbor. There will be NO CANOE-like Northern Allied Assaults! [:-]

D. Burma will be taken through Ledo. After that dig, dig, and dig some more.

E. China offers Oil, Manpower, and Industry in the North. That will also be needed for the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

F. We hammer the DEI as tradition speaks to us.

G. Guess we'll HAVE to take the Philippines at some point too...

OK. Those are the tentative goals. It REALLY isn't very much??!! Piece of cake.

My kind of game! BANZAI!

[Cribtop]

No doubt from the Japanese perspective, the earlier you take it the easier it is to take (no matter what target you're after).

Thoughts:

- I second the concern re Allied CVs. There are more of them and they like to cruise the SOPAC & SWPAC theaters, sometimes very early.

- An early start to the Aleutians could serve as a great diversion in addition to the stated objective of securing the Kuriles from canoe raids. If you're going to the Aleutians, I'd take Adak and possibly Dutch Harbor. No harm in grabbing Kiska while you're at it, but Adak is the key.

- I think the Canton - Pago Pago - Suva Op is generally sound, but identify the ENG, BFs, HQs you'll need on day 1 and get them moving to the theater asap (particularly naval support to offload fuel & supplies at small forward bases)

- It seems to me the NE Australia Op should be conducted strictly as a raid. Take one base to throw them off kilter, then pull out.

- The Allies go where the IJN is not. While the Pago Pago - Suva moves will cause them a headache, their counter, particularly with more CVs than stock, may be a move into the Marshalls, Wake or even Marcus to threaten your flank. Be prepared for this with Netties and reaction forces. Of course, this could create a favorable opportunity for KB plus LBA to smash the Allied CVs if you can get there in time.

- More later, have to go for now. Really psyched you guys are discussing the planning as this will allow us new JFBs to learn a lot.

- OK, back from dinner. Darwin is a good target, but it seems to be every JFB's favorite target in AE. This is why I like the NE Australia Op, but as a raid. I can envision seizing Cooktown or Cairns, causing panic and re-deployment, then hit Darwin & environs about 2 weeks later. They probably won't pull anything from Darwin in response to NE Australia, but they may get their reserves around Sydney moving in the wrong direction and thus out of position. If Darwin goes well, Perth becomes an option as well.

- A feint toward India (say a KB raid on Colombo a la the real war or taking Akyab) may have a similar paralyzing effect on the Allies.

- Don't forget that one of the key differences in AE is lack of Allied airframes (although this mod may change that?). They will have more trouble establishing air superiority and the period of parity may extend until late '43 or early '44 if you play it right.

[FatR]

I think, that Darwin is pretty much indefensible against a dedicated early attack, no need for diversions. While I simply screwed up there in my current PBEM, not realizing the possibility of early thrust to Australia until it was far too late, with no supply flowing overland and troops taking forever to move by roads, there is not much you can do to protect it against a dedicated attack anyway. Darwin is harder to supply and reinforce than Port Moresby, initially and easily can be turned into a trap for Allied forces.

[bklooste]

Then, I think I will need the 33rd Division (Nagasaki) and 38th Division (Hong Kong) to BOTH go to either Luzon or Malaya to speed up conquest in order to free up more troops. Any suggestions on which to do or something else you have learned the hard way??

Unless you are going to do something risky like air drops in Malaysia or a Mersing landing most walks down Malayasia will be slow and it wont matter if you have 3 or 10 Divisions. Malaysia deserves attentions as you can release a lot of resources 2-4 weeks earlier.

[bklooste]

Your strategy does not seem to have a goal except for grab everything , what do all those Pacific islands do and especially commiting your paratroppers which are very valueble in Malaysia/DEI and for grabbing port Blair.

Before a plan i would decide something like

- Economy and hence Oil is the goal so will capture these ASAP.
- Will take all location withing strategic bombing range of oil targets.
- Will try to force the enemy to decisive battle in 41 or very early 42
- Allied counter attack will be backed by 4E bombers so attack any bases than can easily become large enough and also port which can support such an attack.
- Be fast through Malaysia ( replot 2nd landling for Mersing and delay till cover can be provided from Borneo or CVE)

Based on these i would form my attacks.

Since the allied forces lack land units in 41 and 42 they will not take major locations but opt for side shows so why fight tit for tat island battles ? Now Darwin and Port Morseby are great targets , you can attack Darwin via an early attack on Timor which will help secure the DEI  and make getting your oil much earlier.  PM I like but i wouldnt go for things like Lunga it doesnt get you anything , get Lae , Milne Bay , PM if you reinforce the North coast of New Guniea you can get land units out via the trail if they are defeated.

To bring a decisive battle early i would probably land in Hawaii with 48th division , 2 more brigades and significant AA, not to threaten PH (though he may think so) but to try to sink his ships ( in port and trying to reinforce) and to force him to commit his air units while they are not ready and to use your IJAAF ( better than China) .  You may also get a big CV battle before he is ready and trained. It will also focus   their attention so much it may provide benefits in other theaters.

[Cribtop]

Minor point, but I would take Canton even if you don't plan to hold it long as the stock of 8000 fuel there on 12/7 is very valuable. It is one of the few bases in SOPAC with any fuel and 8K is enough to support a strong cruiser sqdn for some time.

[Cap Mandrake]

Who could resist opening a thread with the header "opening thrust"?

John, I see the blue line extends past Perth. I think it is a good idea. Perth is even more valuable in AE. Just dont wait too long.

I am surprised to see Noumea left off the list.