The Shipwreck of Our Hopes: Japanese Side

[John 3rd]

I SAID I had good feelings regarding Manila!  We've had a couple of attacks break at JUST OVER 2-1 and that has been a huge help.  The loss of all that Infantry might make Bataan a FAR easier nut to crack.  Michael has about 3 Inf Div in combat strength in Luzon and it MAY be enough.  We'll see about that...
 
Will get a good idea of Singapore with the next turn.  This could be pretty easy too.  Like I said earlier, we have a real chance of holding Manila, Clark, and Singapore on Jan 1, 1942!  Pretty wild when you think about it.
 
Michael:
Presupposing a quick Singapore Fall, the door opens to some wild possibilities.  Here is what I see:
 
1.  Rapid invasion (seaborne) of Burma with 3-4 Inf Div and Support Units.  Could grab Akyab and Rangoon area and then drive into the interior.
 
OR
 
2.  Ram into Java the units that take Singapore and HAVE Java by the end of January 42!
 
OR
 
3.  Do the Java Option AND transship all the Armor and an ID to add strength for the Aussie Invasion.  Could also make the units in Singapore the core for an early Perth Invasion.
 
OR
 
4.  Trust me to throw out a wild card...what about being CRAZY and look at Ceylon or eastern India?  Those units will be SO weak in January/February 42.  Wid thought but might be interesting to ponder.
 
 
Always throwing out ideas....
 

[bklooste]

I see no point  in OZ except Darwin ( and evacuate in 43/1) its just a grinder and they get a lot of freebies if you do land South of Brisbane. A landing in the NE as a faint may be worth it for 3-6 months just to tie him down rushing forces to OZ. Gloncurry (mount Isa) has like 400 resources which may be worth grabbing ( I like Gloncurry - Darwin - Rockhampton)
 
Ceylon early i like , it will force his Navy to commit on your terms without ( likely ) the US parts and makes supplying Oz more difficult. It also forces him to think about India meaning your forces in Burma will have it easier.   Devide and conquer. Though there is that issue if you take Ceylon he misses out on 2 CVs that apear there later.
 
Best Order
Timor
Darwin ( before Java)
Ceylon /Java ( order ?)
Rockhampton /Gloncurry ( since he has rushed all these forces to Perth /Darwin)
 
After that India [:D][:D]
As a faint mainly so he panics and is so busy reinforcing OZ/India that he has no time to build an offensive elsewhere with a bit of luck you can grab all of Burma before monsoon.  The idea is to leave suva and the SW pacific with very few forces a regiment , some battalions , 1 Nell Daitai , Lots of Mavis and some cruisers / DD/subs for sea lane raiding ( obviously you can fly in more Nells) .  Hence while you will be over extended the extermities wont be defended but he will be too busy with your attacks and you can still make an attack from him expensive.
 

[FatR]

A Ceilon invasion might work very well early, as a way to destroy inexperienced Allied troops and their fleet, but in the long term it will just creare another front of attrition, unless you pull out soon afterwards.

I think that Darwin can be postponed. It is isolated and hard to defend. But Palembang and Java should be priority targets, IMO. If your opponents repeat their Luzon mistake and try to defend several points, you can easily sweep inexperienced Dutch forces on Java with just two divisions. If they don't, you can take most of the island and reduce their airfield network. As about Palembang, take it soon, so they won't be able to put a ton of engineers there, like I did, you want the oil fields with minimal damage.

[JuanG]

ORIGINAL: bklooste

Devide and conquer. Though there is that issue if you take Ceylon he misses out on 2 CVs that apear there later.

Not in my scenarios. All allied capital ships arrive in either the UK or the US. The only things he might loose are small support vessels.

The issue with Ceylon in my mind is that it is yet another front for them to start the process of attrition on your air forces.

[ny59giants]

I will focus on capture of Sumatra and Java before any of the "what ifs." The Imperial Guards will march north to Burma after her work in Malaya is done. The 18th is already broken down and will capture the NE side of Sumatra (she will then be shipped to Burma afterwards). The 2nd is also broken down and one infantry rgt needs PP to allow the division to recombine, so I will probably use her for Borneo. Another division will take Palembang and join the other two or three divisions to take Java.

The 21st Division is at Babeldoab and will take Darwin. I will push south with 2 infantry regiments to Daly Waters.

Perth and/or Ceylon are possibilities, but I tend to look at things from more of a logistical perspective than John does. Its easy to take things early in the war as Japan, but how do you resupply those new bases and how does it protect your own economic assets or make it more difficult for the Allies to maintain theirs??

This mod has the extra engineer vehicles for AF Construction and Naval Construction units (12 vs 3 or less). I have the Independent Engineer Rgt which have a TO&E that includes the Engineer Vehicles total increase to 20. Thus, I want to expand only to a certain point and then dig deep.

[bklooste]

ORIGINAL: JuanG

ORIGINAL: bklooste

Devide and conquer. Though there is that issue if you take Ceylon he misses out on 2 CVs that apear there later.

Not in my scenarios. All allied capital ships arrive in either the UK or the US. The only things he might loose are small support vessels.

The issue with Ceylon in my mind is that it is yet another front for them to start the process of attrition on your air forces.

This is a GOOD thing, at least till 6/42 you want to engage all the allied squadrons the ones not engadged are training and in rubish aircraft that make Oscars look good while your more experienced pilots wait for them to get better..

[bklooste]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I will focus on capture of Sumatra and Java before any of the "what ifs." The Imperial Guards will march north to Burma after her work in Malaya is done. The 18th is already broken down and will capture the NE side of Sumatra (she will then be shipped to Burma afterwards). The 2nd is also broken down and one infantry rgt needs PP to allow the division to recombine, so I will probably use her for Borneo. Another division will take Palembang and join the other two or three divisions to take Java.

The 21st Division is at Babeldoab and will take Darwin. I will push south with 2 infantry regiments to Daly Waters.

Perth and/or Ceylon are possibilities, but I tend to look at things from more of a logistical perspective than John does. Its easy to take things early in the war as Japan, but how do you resupply those new bases and how does it protect your own economic assets or make it more difficult for the Allies to maintain theirs??

This mod has the extra engineer vehicles for AF Construction and Naval Construction units (12 vs 3 or less). I have the Independent Engineer Rgt which have a TO&E that includes the Engineer Vehicles total increase to 20. Thus, I want to expand only to a certain point and then dig deep.

You have a lot more divs than historical ( and maybe more ) and you dont need KB for Java if you have Sumatra / Biliton. With the losses in the PI its quite likely you have a large amount of divs who will not take long to clear Bataan these can take Java.

An early raid on Ceylon will do it before he can build it , prob 1 month earlier means you can do it with half the forces.


Completely agree on the logistics which is why i like weak garrisons on the outskirts which would be Suva ( personally i preffer not taking Fiji , New Caledonia) etc and these are pretty safe especially if he is busy with your attacks.

Ceylon though can bring his fleet in unprepeared ( few players will just give it up) that is the only kind of action that can really help Japan delay the late war push , it is also another point to confront his airforce in early 42 you are more prepared and better trained if you let these planes train they will come back and deliver twice the losses.

[John 3rd]

I am wide open as to strategic thinking.  These are my thoughts regarding the current situation:
 
Ceylon
1.  An early assault on Ceylon brings about real promise for the following reasons:
a.  We can force the Allies to THINK we are going after India.  (Diversionary attack)
b.  Perhaps we can catch them off-guard and sink some of the British Eastern Fleet.
c.  It can be done cheaply.
d.  We can use the bases as a fine way to train up our Daitai and Sentai and crush their Squadrons for the Spring of 42.
e.  We DIG IN and leave just enough troops to make them commit serious forces to recapture the Island. 
f.  As with e, we buy time for Burma/Sumatra by making them take Ceylon
 
The whole key to this is make them start the battle for our important areas as FAR AWAY as possible without us having to commit too much in personnel and resources.  While Ceylon attacks their shipping and aircraft, we get everything we want prepared and ready for the eventual counteroffensive. 
 
Where Michael suffers from Malayitis (the fixation of the Malay Peninsula due to his other game), I suffer from Danitis where Mr. Roper beat the Japanese by coming back through Burma, Malaya, and Indochina...
 
Australia
2.  We shoot to capture all of NW Aussieland AND NE Australia
a.  Michael hits Darwin, reinforces the attack, and clears out the NW.
b.  After I grab Port Moresby, I will use Paras to grab Cloncurry and that Pleasonton to the north of it, and then land my Inf Div and Guards Brigade at Cairns or Cooktown.
 
We make it APPEAR that Australia is getting everything when we actually have no plans to make a true fight of it.  Conquer some land, benefit from some resources and industry, occupy the enemy, and then move out once the heat starts to grow.  Same story as Ceylon.  As the battle moves away through this attack we dig-in and prepare our TRUE defenses elsewhere. 
 
Summary
The combination of Ceylon and Australia SHOULD serve to keep the enemy off-balance and unsure of our true purposes while we prepare our real defenses and look to force a Fleet action.  Grabbing these locations also allows for us to sink a number of vessels that might not have been due to location, forward deploy our air forces, and give us a serious boost in VP before their counter-offensive gets underway.
 
.02
 
 

[FatR]

An invasion of Ceilon is not a good way to secure perimeter (India cannot be conquered entirely, and Ceilon alone is undefensible), but a good way to destroy Allied assets. IMO, destroying large chunks of Allied forces, both ground and naval, within the first half of 1942 (without taking heavy fleet losses) is the key for successful defense throughout the rest of the game.

Attriting Allied air force is a side benefit, but, IMO, should not be a goal in itself. Even if you totally wreck early-war Allied air force in DEI and CBI, this does not matter beyond enabling your operations in the short term. If CV Enhanced is like BB Enhanced, by 42/6, Allies will be, across all nations, receiving around 270 modern fighters per month, not counting those arriving with the units. And even that will seem piddly later. Your ability to handle this flood of aircraft will be primarily determined by your ability to build 200 Zeros (although Mike, starting with the second modification, is worth considering as a base defense fighter too - it has way better speed than Zero, better climb and better armament) and 200 Tojos per month, not by losses you inflicted during the first 2-3 months. As about pilots, Allies don't seem to lose many of them when on the defensive. Maybe that's the effects of armor and fighting mostly over their airfields, maybe that's a hardcoded bonus. In my PBEM against Michael Allies lost slightly more pilots by 42/6 than I lost playing against Allied AI after just two months.

[John 3rd]

I like destroying the assets there and then leaving just enough supply and troops to force a serious invasion of the Isle.  Makes for an Allied headache.
 
Michael---What do you think of your namesake as a plane?
 

[John 3rd]

The crew of the I-7 get a double kill in late-Dec 41. They first sink an AKL off the northern tip of New Zealand and then bag another AKL by surface attack. A Contact Report is filed as Admiral Nagumo finishes refueling the KB about 20 hexes NE of this position...

(Michael has GREAT news again!)

[John 3rd]

The Japanese Offensive in the Central, South and South East Pacific begins to pick-up steam on December 29, 1941. Attacks occur throughout the Pacific:



1. BB Yamato and company stun a small American TF at Palmyra and CRUSH it.

2. A small landing force moves into NE Suva by landing at Taveuni.

3. Efate is invaded.

4. Koumac also has a landing going on.

5. Milne Bay will get hit tomorrow by a small Invasion Force.

6. Paratroopers flying from Lae will grab Buna tomorrow.

7. The KB swings due east of Noumea and will enter into the area between New Caledonia and Australia.



Additionally:

1. The Wake Island Invasion Force will begin loading at Saipan in two days. It will be Covered by several Cruisers.

2. The 4th ID will depart Rabaul for Port Moresby on the 31st. It has a massive Cover Force of 3 BB and 11 Escorts.

3. The Imperial Guards Brigade is about 5 days from New Caledonia to support and aide the taking of this important base.



This massive movement is designed to keep Ken confused as to where and when the Japanese will attack. The KB has not been seen for nearly 2 weeks so this must be a concern. As soon as the KB does reveal itself one can expect some sort of American reaction at a differing point of the map. Would like the KB to remain undiscovered for couple more days to help sustain the confusion and concern.

[Q-Ball]

I agree with Java First. After that, good question; options are more limited in AE.

I would definitely NOT expand out into the Pacific.

You should actually SEEK attrition situations on aircraft. Why? You can expand A/C production, the Allies can't. Attrition favors Japan.

[Canoerebel]

The aircraft situation in AE is really weird - radically different from both WitP and the real war.  Q-Ball's right about the attrition being a good option.

[John 3rd]

Hey Guys.

I think that Michael and I are going to stick with the original plan of smashing into Australia.  He will land and take the NW.  I will land and threaten the NE.  With a highly probable quick fall of Java, a 3rd prong hitting Perth would is not out of the question.  The goal will be to grab, hold, and then withdraw when it comes to the right time.  We'll suck the resources, grab supply, and benefit from HI for as long as we can.

The extension of the Pacific perimeter is established and set.  I will NOT expand past what we have agreed to.  The hope continues to be finding the US CVs and hitting them hard. 

1.  I've got an idea that at least a pair of them are operating somewhere around Brisbane and Sydney.  I've had two SS attacks between NZ and Aussie Coast that were against American warships (CAs and DDs).  No other real reason for US warships to be operating in that area.  This is why I hope KB gets another day or two closer to Australia.  Might have a chance to bag something...

2.  Our SS operating SW of Los Angeles have had several encounters in the last 5-7 days with US warships and convoys.  Might prove interesting to see what else is operating there.  Have vectored more SS and an AMC to 'investigate' these contacts.

[bklooste]

John make sure you read PzBs aar NW and NE was easy but he is failing with Perth . If you take Perth or 1 hex south? he gets some very decent troops most apear in Capetown.. NW and NE will not take much to take ( but more to hold)

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Hey Guys.

I think that Michael and I are going to stick with the original plan of smashing into Australia.  He will land and take the NW.  I will land and threaten the NE.  With a highly probable quick fall of Java, a 3rd prong hitting Perth would is not out of the question.  The goal will be to grab, hold, and then withdraw when it comes to the right time.  We'll suck the resources, grab supply, and benefit from HI for as long as we can.

The extension of the Pacific perimeter is established and set.  I will NOT expand past what we have agreed to.  The hope continues to be finding the US CVs and hitting them hard. 

1.  I've got an idea that at least a pair of them are operating somewhere around Brisbane and Sydney.  I've had two SS attacks between NZ and Aussie Coast that were against American warships (CAs and DDs).  No other real reason for US warships to be operating in that area.  This is why I hope KB gets another day or two closer to Australia.  Might have a chance to bag something...

2.  Our SS operating SW of Los Angeles have had several encounters in the last 5-7 days with US warships and convoys.  Might prove interesting to see what else is operating there.  Have vectored more SS and an AMC to 'investigate' these contacts.

[bklooste]

 

Also they know your an aggressive player so the best way to handle this is to pull as many assets back and park your CVs in Aukland or West Coast and just wait for you to over extend and then cut off a huge extremity eg mid 43 Marshals /Lunga or Timor /Celebs .  The best way for you to counter this is to leave your extremities weak or with quickly redeploying forces.

I like Ceylon , but  it is very obvious  so if you wait its prob not worth it i would launch it durring or before Java.

What about after Ceylon an Indian invasion to cut off and crush Burma ( could coincide with the start or end of the Monsoon) you could launch a faint in South India and then the land behind Burma to make him think you launching a complete Indian invasion but after Burma is yours just pull out and put those forces back to guard the DEI.

[John 3rd]

Hmmmm...interesting thinking BK.  Michael what do you think of all that?
 
I didn't think additional reinforcements were tripped in Australia until one got farther south.  What is the specific rule with that?
 
I think they have fallen back and the US Fleet is around Melbourne/Sydney.  Will only find out by checking!  Course they could be over near Timor by this time too...heck I don't know!  Gonna find out, however, within a few days as KB makes its little cruise into the vicinity. 
 
Should note KB refueled from its AOs and they have been sent to Luganville to await events.  After fueling there is still 55,000 in fuel on those AOs and I have another trio of fully loaded Oilers coming over the make sure I've got enough fuel for extended Ops if need be.  Think the Replennishment Group is OK since I am now landing at Koumac.  If the Allies try to counter it will be there and not where my AOs are.
 
Truly hope we're not facing a Sir Robin in the Pacific.  The DEI defence has been quite aggressive so we'll have to see what they are doing in the Pac.
 

[John 3rd]

Busy turn for the South and Southeast Pacific:

The Japanese capture Efate, Koumac, Taveune, and paratroopers take Buna.

Landings begin at Milne Bay. Will fall tomorrow.

The Port Moresby Invasion lifts anchor this day and sorties for its target. There are three Amphib TF each containing one Regiment of the 4th ID. They are Covered by a powerful TF of 3 BB, 2 CA, 1 CL, and 8 DD. Invasion Date is set for January 4, 1942.

The KB prepares to enter the Tasman Sea. It has not been spotted and so it moves along with high hopes. I have 3 CV set to deliver Torps and the remaining Torpedo Daitai will carry bombs. Will alternate back-and-forth so I don't deplete my TTs on useless targets over only two days.

[bklooste]

We will see if he has heavily reinforced PM he will fight else he is running waiting for you to over extend.