Salutations and solicitations.... 1EyedJacks (J) vs Nemo (A)

[wpurdom]

To what extent has your strategy been based on distinguishing between the desirability of air v. naval attrition in the 1942-43 period under the Lanchester Laws?

In AE, the Allied player does not have much to worry about in terms of the human player out-performing the historical experience in naval production. Thus he retains all the advantages of the historical and WITP OB. It appears from the AAR's, that in 1942 and most of 1943, a skilled human IJ can out-reinforce the Allied player in number of airframes and trained pilots.

It appears to me that your strategy has in practice been well-designed to achieve the maximum bloodletting under favorable circumstances of naval forces, but less so of air forces. To what extent are you seeking air attrition in the game at this stage? If you are happy with one-to-one air exchanges at the maximum rate achievable, how do you plan to cope with the shortage of Allied airframes in 1942 and early 1943? Crippling his economy by holding Sumatra?

[Nemo121]

LoBaron, the last time Hartwig and I tried to play a game the slow turn-around rate due to both of us being rather busy killed the game off. Within the first month of play though we'd discussed quantum physics, the wisdom of crowds vs the ignorance of mobs, a bit of communication theory, a fair bit of psychology, a little philosophy ( mostly as it pertained to European philosophers commenting on the above ) and, occasionally, we even talked about the game . We didn't always agree but I'm not one of those people who thinks you have to agree with someone to like their company/find their input interesting. Nah, seriously, all of the above were tangentially related to issues which arose in the game. It was interesting but, sadly, I think we're both massively over-committed to RL stuff. If that ever changes and we could manage a turn every 2 days or so then I'd be more than happy to take him on. He really tried to fence with me on the OODA loop and tried to disrupt my maskirovka while running his own. It was interesting to be on the receiving end and undertake to twist his maskirovka to my own ends.


wpurdom,
Very much so as a matter of fact. My analysis is that aerial annihilation in 1942 is not favourable to the Allies while naval annihilation IS. Some level of Allied aerial loss is necessary for three reasons:
1. In the phillipines several squadrons ( about 100 planes ) were perma-restricted so I couldn't save them. I didn't reinforce failure however.
2. In the Marshalls losses had/have to be accepted in pursuit of the overall strategic goal. If I could get away without those losses I would but I need that level of aerial cover to dissuade him from basing Netties at Maloelap and hitting my transports.
3. When he comes for Sumatra it will be necessary to throw everything into the fray, at massive cost, to attempt to defeat the initial landing and annihilate the IJN covering and close escort groups.

I'm not happy with a 1:1 exchange rate overall but right now in the Marshalls it is a necessity. At present, I'm achieving a minimum of 1:1 over the course of the map. Actually I'm probably doing a little better than 1:1. However the key point is that my losses are spread amongst various air forces and amongst fighters and bombers while the majority of his losses are in Netties and Zeroes. He's lost about 500 naval aircraft since the beginning of hostilities while the IJAAF has been, relatively, preserved. That's because I've been targetting his IJNAF forces whenever I've had to fight. Why? cause that'll help with Sumatra.

Overall though I'm not fighting when I don't have to. The Marshalls is a situation when I had to and Sumatra will be the next time I have to.

You are correct that Mike will be able to outproduce me in airframes and pilots. He tells me he is making some 200 fighters a month now and is talking about making more. I'm assuming he's making 300 fighters per month right now. My fighter reinforcements come in at about 100 per month right now.


My goal is that by the end of 1942 I will have the following situation:
1. An IJN which is critically short of CAs and BBs. It may have quite a few CLs and DDs but even there it should have significant losses.
2. Sumatra will still be in Allied hands as will everything south of Kendari.
3. Allied forces will hold most of the Kuriles, Marcus, Wake and the Marshalls.

4. Allied surface raiders will interdict his SLOCs in the north from the Aleutians and his SLOCs to northern and Southern Borneo from Sumatra/ Java/Kendari. Meanwhile his SLOCs east of the Phillipines will be interdicted by DDs, AMCs and CLs operating out of Wake, Marcus etc. All of those areas are areas where I've already tested my ability to operate surface raids in the face of enemy air supremacy in the past two months.

5. Once I have him operating CV TFs to prevent surface raiding and have them spotted I should be able to move on with whatever invasions I require in order to interdict more SLOCs.

6. Sooner rather than later starved of the OIL in Palembang and with significant interdiction operations running taking a toll of the remaining IJN shipping and IJAAF/IJNAF air forces I would expect to be able to force his economy into collapse mid to late 43. Once his economy collapses his CVs don't matter.

[Nemo121]

The above is a reference to Sumatra... In time I'll change it to the next part of the quote...


So, what has happened over the last couple of days?

1. I sent 2 CLs and 4 DDs after the Hosho and Shoho which were seen transitting south-west of Rabaul. Unfortunately it seems those CVL/Es weren't as badly damaged as I thought as they managed to launch Kates which level-bombed my shipping and put about a half-dozen bombs each onto the 2 CLs. Sys damage is in the mid-40s. Fire damage isn't too bad so I'm sending the CLs to refuel at Rabaul and then on to Oz for repair and to join the RN TFs.

2. The RN is continuing to repair damage and I'm getting a bit worried the IJN will hit Java before all my ships are fully repaired. Once fully repaired I will have 5 BBs ( PoW, Hood and 3 R Class BBs ), 2 CAs, 5 CLs and 16 DDs but I won't have that entire force ready for 12 days... I'm worried he might try to strike before that.

3. The writing down of the IJNAF continues. I've conducted a better count of IJNAAF losses and so far it looks like they've lost - 300 Zeroes, 293 Netties, 240 Vals and Kates ( all from KB ) as well as about 60 other IJNAAF planes and pilots of all types ( Flying boats, CA-based floatplanes etc ). So, in total, it looks like I've downed 900 IJNAAF planes in the first 71 days of the war. Heavy losses for the IJNAAF indeed.

I was thinking about the confusion my 1:1 comment seems to have caused and I thought I should clarify things a bit more with some examples... Today I lost 5 planes, the Japanese lost 24, yesterday I lost 16 to Japanese losses of 21 and the day before that I lost 6 to 16. Overall that's 27 vs 61. I don't assume I'll do better than 1:1 and around the Marshalls that's all I'm achieving since I'm accepting sub-optimal combats in order to serve the greater strategic plan but elsewhere where I do have the choice of where and when to fight I'm batting a lot better than 1:1. 2.25 to 1 still isn't nearly good enough though given Japanese production. I'd need to be hitting at least 3:1 to keep up with the proportional advantage he has in replacement rates. Still, there are some times you just have to do the best you can.

I'd also point out that this is mid-February 1942 and I'm achieving significantly better than 1:1 exchange rates when I can pick and choose where to fight. I think that's a salient point for those who read AARs where Allied players bemoan their ability to match the Japanese kill rates 6 months from now or 1 year from now when the Allied situation should be much better than it is now.


4. Merchant raider TFs are fully engaged now. 4 TFs are sneaking into the enemy backyard. So far none of them have been spotted.

5. Another 50 fighters have been delivered to Sumatra. In the meantime I've switched my PBYs to night naval attacks to discomfit the enemy a little. Even if the attacks don't hit anything they show me what is there and help me figure out when the invasion of Java will come. I am guessing it will form up in either Singapore or Singkawang - both of which I am watching like a hawk with PBYs and specialised recon overflights. Subsidiary forces are watching for an invaion via the Balikpapan direction.

6. I finally succumbed to sending B17s in against a major IJA base by setting 16 B17s to attack Singkawang. Unbelievably 10 went in and were opposed by about 60 Japanese fighters. It appears that they shot down 4 Japanese Oscars and managed to all return home, albeit that half of the B17s committed will need many days of repairs. The Japanese REALLY need a good interceptor with some heavy cannons. I think that the B17s survivability seems reasonable given what I've read of Oscars vs B17s in the real Pacific war but I think their ability to shoot down IJA fighters is over-rated. It does appear that the number of guns on the B17 does result in excessive lethality. I don't think the problem is as bad as many seem to think though as I think that a properly modded in Fw-190 A8 with underwing cannon packs or an Fw-190F would do very well against the B-17s.

[wpurdom]

I assume to get those air rates of exchange, you are generally employing an ambush strategy in the air and avoiding long predictable exchanges where possible (outside of the Philippines, Marshalls, and, at some point Sumatra).

[Nemo121]

Absolutely. My favourite current hunting ground is Balikpapan. I still run the occasional TK or whatever in there and since his heavy BB and CA losses in the Marshalls I haven't seen any IJN surface assets raiding. Instead every so often a Netty Daitai comes in and the AVG/1st Squadron shoots them pretty much all down.

That unit now has 90+ kills in return for 30 planes lost ( mostly over Singapore when it was screening my mass evacuations ) with at least 60 or so of those kills being Netties over Balikpapan. Every so often I pull back and he sweeps Balikpapan to find nothing but empty air. When I judge the time right I re-appear and down another 15 Netties in a day before pulling back again.

When I have to stand and fight over Sumatra I won't get that 2-3:1 kill rate....


One other area where I'm doing relatively well is over China where my I-15s and I-16s are killing 1 or 2 Sallies a turn with various ambushes. Mike appears to be focussing all of his forces in the north and is running air raids near Sian non-stop.

Unfortunately for him I'm a far more sneaky SOB than him so seeing something like that just makes me more certain than ever that he is going to attack in the south. I am expecting him at Kweilin and Changsha +/- Ichang any day now... I think Ichang is not too likely but I definitely think he is going to try to pin me at Changsha while blowing through my forces at Kweilin/Kweiyang ( I always forget that place's name, it is about 300 miles west of Changsha and is in woods along a major route north towards Kunching and directly behind my troops at Changsha etc).

I've kept the forces there low ( only about 800 AV ) but have 700 AV in strategic mode ready to rail in. I've given the orders for them to begin moving yesterday as yesterday I saw the first signs of a move on Changsha... that means in a couple of days time I'll see signs of a movement on Kweilin/Kweiyang. By that stage what was 800 AV will be 1500 and those reinforcements should scupper his force calculations.


I might be wrong of course and he could be as obvious as he seems with everything going "hey diddle, diddle, right up the middle". I think that's unlikely though and, hell, if I'm wrong at least I won't be underestimating him.

[bigred]

the plane hits and they try to evacuate their "mental schema" for getting out of the belt they are in reverts to the belt they most commonly use, their car belt. Unfortunately that belt opens differently than the airplane belt. End result people who panic and haven't fully oriented to the situation "I'm in a plane and this belt opens a weird way" fall back on the mental schema which normally works when they're belted into a seat in their car and are found still in their seats having died of smoke inhalation while trying to undo the belt as they would the belt in their car. Panic and smoke prevented them from having enough time to properly re-orient and make the right decision on how to open the belt. OODA loop in action.

Documentation please...(on the belt buckle)

[Nemo121]

Various studies on people's response to panic situations, natural disasters, combat etc. My area of interest within psychiatry is people's reaction to stress, particularly accidents, disasters and combat ( anything which can create PTSD in other words ).

An excellent book for this topic is "On Combat, the psychology and physiology of deadly conflict" by Dave Grossman ... Very interesting general read. As to the precise papers I've read about aircrashes etc... I don't memorise those sorts of references but they coincide very well with the studies on ferry disasters in Europe ( Zeebrugge and various Scandinavian ones ) in which people have been found trapped in cabins seemingly having forgotten about the card swipe to open it or walking "up" a flight of stairs which is now leading them underwater as the ship has capsized etc. All examples of inappropriate actions undertaken because they are operating under inappropriate mental schema.

Other common examples occur in fires in theatres, discos etc ( places people aren't intimately familiar with ) where everyone tends to run for the exit the first people head for. Often when there are fatalities they occur at this packed exit. later firemen often find other exits have been used by very few or even by none of the people.

A few years ago there was a fire in some New York disco. The fire began on the stage ( fireworks I think ). There were 4 exits including 1 behind the stage and one to the side of the stage. The firemen found that most people who had used the 3rd exit got out but the 4th exit was clogged with bodies. The 2nd exit ( to the side of the stage ) had been used by a few and none of the partygoers had used the 1st exit behind the stage. There were enough exits but people responded as a herd and died as a herd. Basically the schema in action there was "follow the crowd, the crowd is usually right". 999 times out of a 1,000 that might be right but not on that night.


I've done a simple google search for aircrash + seatbelt and found several reports of people having to be cut out of seatbelts after a crash and many more of others having to be helped out of their seat belts by other survivors as they couldn't undo them. This jibes with the reports I remember from the studies but, again, unfortunately, the search didn't turn up the papers I've read, I'd have to go into Medline or CINAHL to do that and then you wouldn't be able to read the studies as you wouldn't have access ( I presume ).

[Nemo121]

Well, speak of the devil... No sooner do I mention that he isn't raiding Balikpapn he sends in a CL and 4 DDs, catching 3 xAKs. Ah well.

Interestingly I've spotted 4 CAs around Kavieng, 2 BBs at Singkawang and several CVs and a couple of CAs at Takao. Since he only has 6 CAs and 6 BBs left it looks like he has split his force between Truk and Borneo/Java. I'm assuming 4 CAs and 2 BBs at Truk and 2 CAs, 4 BBs at Singkawang/Singers. I also have to assume that his CVs are still at Takao. I know I really hurt his airgroups ( over 200 Kates and Vals have been destroyed so far and his 6 CVs only have about 300 strike planes to begin with so I've pretty much wiped out 80% of his original strike groups ) but I didn't think it would take him this long to rebuild them...

In other news my PBYs mounted lots of night bombing raids - which is how I know there are 2 BBs at Singkawang - and my B17s mounted a raid on Singers from Sumatra. I didn't lose any B17s but the damage inflicted by over 60 Japanese defenders forced them all to turn back. Still, those B-17s are tough. I'm going to do my level best to fly the 30 or so I have in the Marshalls to Oz and from there to Sumatra as a punch of 50 B17s should be pretty damned devastating.

Nothing much else to report... I see clear indications of a push on Changsha now so it looks like I was right. Well, I have almost Level 6 forts, a terrain bonus, a river bonus and several thousand AV of Chinese troops with reasonable leaders. This ought to get very interesting very quickly.


In other news he finally attacked at Manilla. My forces did reasonably well given the fact that the bug means they've been out of supply for a whole month but I don't think they'll hold for more than another 3 attacks, 4 at the outmost.

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 74882 troops, 783 guns, 402 vehicles, Assault Value = 2612

Defending force 51408 troops, 941 guns, 802 vehicles, Assault Value = 1657

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Japanese adjusted assault: 1675

Allied adjusted defense: 2309

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
9831 casualties reported
Squads: 28 destroyed, 283 disabled
Non Combat: 37 destroyed, 560 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 40 disabled
Guns lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 38 (2 destroyed, 36 disabled)

Hmm, those disablements look encouraging as it'll take him quite a while to repair them. Unfortunately my disablements are unrepairable due to low supplies so, overall, this exchange still hurts me more. Ah well, it'll be the end of the month before Manilla will fall and then I'll still have at least 1 more week before he can hit Kendari etc. In 3 weeks I can have those bases well-reinforced with Australian troops which are just arriving in |Darwin after marching overland from southern Australia.


Allied ground losses:
2256 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 157 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 165 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 34 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 109 (5 destroyed, 104 disabled)


Assaulting units:
1st Formosa Inf. Regiment
Tanaka Detachment
33rd Division
24th Infantry Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
Kimura Det
66th Infantry Group
20th Infantry Regiment
47th Infantry Regiment
Kanno Detachment
48th Recon Regiment
21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
67th Infantry Group
4th Division
48th Engineer Regiment
16th Engineer Regiment
16th Recon Regiment
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
14th Army
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
25th Ind. Engineer Regiment
5th Mortar Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Mortar Battalion
2nd Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
194th Tank Battalion
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
51st PA Infantry Division
31st PA Infantry/B Division
11th PA Infantry Division
1st PA Infantry Division
14th PS Engineer Regiment
31st PA Infantry/C Division
3rd/12th PA Inf Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
71st PA Infantry Division
4th Marine Regiment
31st Infantry Regiment
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
41st PA Infantry Division
31st PA Infantry/A Division
91st PA Infantry Division
21st PA Infantry Division
2nd PA Constabulary Division
61st PA Infantry Div /1
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
Bataan USN Base Force
USAFFE
1st PI Base Force
202nd PA Construction Battalion
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
PAF Aviation
Provisional GMC Gp
I Philippine Corps
201st PA Construction Battalion
803rd Engineer Aviation Battalion
Manila USAAF Base Force
Far East USAAF
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment
1st USMC AA Battalion
II Philippine Corps
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
Cavite USN Base Force /2

[modrow]

Nemo,

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
LoBaron, the last time Hartwig and I tried to play a game the slow turn-around rate due to both of us being rather busy killed the game off. Within the first month of play though we'd discussed quantum physics, the wisdom of crowds vs the ignorance of mobs, a bit of communication theory, a fair bit of psychology, a little philosophy ( mostly as it pertained to European philosophers commenting on the above ) and, occasionally, we even talked about the game . We didn't always agree but I'm not one of those people who thinks you have to agree with someone to like their company/find their input interesting. Nah, seriously, all of the above were tangentially related to issues which arose in the game. It was interesting but, sadly, I think we're both massively over-committed to RL stuff. If that ever changes and we could manage a turn every 2 days or so then I'd be more than happy to take him on. He really tried to fence with me on the OODA loop and tried to disrupt my maskirovka while running his own. It was interesting to be on the receiving end and undertake to twist his maskirovka to my own ends.

thanks for the pleasant descriptions... actually, I'd say I am the one to be blamed for the low turn rate in that game, and unfortunately my plate is once more quite full right now, as much as I would like to be taught tough lessons by you again. It was a great playing experience, if one does not mind being shown one's limits and losing some key assets every now and then along with the painful realization that you were outsmarted yet again.

Nothing like learning by tough experience though, IMHO your WITP game against Damian did transform his play notably, and I think I also did benefit a bit. So I hope for more relaxed times in terms of real life for both of us some day and will try to hone my skills elsewhere till then to provide you with more of a challenge next time [8D].

Hartwig

[Nemo121]

Another day another update.

1. PBYs are now running reliably at night. I'm re-organising a little to mass my torpedo-carrying PBYs around Sumatra ( where the IJN BBs are ) so that they have a chance of making torpedo runs on his BBs while the bomb-carrying Oz and NZ Catalinas cover the Phillipines and Southern Borneo and the Dutch concentrate on the Makassar strait. From the look of his movements he might be about to hit Balikpapan - if he hits that then I have to assume he is going to make for Java via Southern Borneo.

2. I've flown 30 Catalinas into the southern Phillipines to provide scouting for my merchant raider groups. I'm hiding their purpose by sending in a few Catalinas set to naval attack to make it look like I'm just bombing his ships from the air. If he sees bombing raids he mightn't ask what else I'm up to with these naval search missions until it is too late.

3. The USN looks like it will be fully battle-ready by mid-March ( all ships repaired ). Significant portions of the shipping will be ready before then though and I'll send most of them to Oz where they can strike north into the DEI or east into the Truk/Marshalls region.

4. support echelons are now beginning to reach the Marshalls in force and aviation support on Roi-Namur is now just under 200 ( from a low of 50 at the initial landing ). I'm going to begin sweeping his forces at Kwajalein again. I need that airbase closed... In other news the A2A toll continues. I lsot 2 planes yesterday in return for 16 Japanese planes ( mostly army planes yesterday but, hell, you take your ambushes where you can get them ).

5. Burma... Mike is retreating the Imperial Guards division towards Tavoy while bringing strong ground forces to bear at Rahaeng. Unfortunately for him I was expecting either this attack or a seaborne invasion to cut my forces off from Moulmein and have :
a) stopped pursuing the Imperial Guards and
b) ordered 1,000 AV of Chinese troops to reinforce the guys at Rahaeng as of 4 days ago.

I am going to pull back from Rahaeng into the jungle and wait for him with about 1200 AV there. That way he'll have to cross a river to get at my forces and that'll give me the opportunity to cause some significant losses. Well, it looks like the Burma campaign is going to rob the IJA of two divisions from its Sumatran invasion, a really excellent strategic outcome for the Allies.

[Nemo121]

Well today we exchanged equal numbers of planes as a 3 plane element of A-20s got butchered over Kwajalein. On the positive side though I downed 9 Zeroes over Kwajalein, almost all by pilots flying P40Bs.

I'm at over 200 Aviation support at Roi-Namur now and have almost 200 planes operational there. Soon I'll begin landing a Base Force at Wotje to help base dive-bombers to suppress Maloelap airfield and then it'll be Kusaie Island and Ponape. Once Ponape is sufficiently built up I'll commit 30 B17s to closing Truk from there. In the meantime though I'm going to focus on getting my 30+ B17s and 8 LB-30s out of the Marshalls and into the DEI. I want a solid punch of 50 4-engined bombers which I can use to counter his invasion TFs. They mightn't hit a huge amount but they'll surely draw his fighters into their lethal embrace and help many more of my other bombers survive.

One more week and Force Z will be fully repaired. I might also have a couple of USN CLs and some additional DDs in the area if they survive their commerce raiding mission. Tomorrow I'll post pictures of where they've gotten to... positions Mike should NEVER EVER have allowed them to reach... Very sloppy.

That's about it. More slaughter over Kwaj tomorrow and general Allied preparations to disrupt and meet the next IJN thrust.

[Nemo121]

Well, 21st February 1942 and my commerce raiders are in position. The waters east of the Phillipines seem strangely empty. Ah well, time to commit to the waters closer in to the shore and west of the Phillipines. Another 8 or 9 Zeroes are downed over Kwajalein while, for some reason, a B-18 flight decides to raid Kwajalein all by itself. Ah well, they were idiots to do that. Now they're dead idiots and Darwinian selection continues apace.

Right now I'm somewhat regretting that I didn't go with a potential Phase 2 amphibious landing of 1,000 AV into the Legaspi area. I really think I might have been able to get the transports ashore undetected, drop 150,000+ tons of supply with them and relieve the Phillipines. Ah well, maybe next time.

6 days until I have Force Z back in full operation.

In the meantime I'm very obviously basing PBYs at Cagayan in the hopes of drawing another 500 IJA AV into a smallish siege there --- all of which will effectively remove them from the first phase of the Sumatran battle.

[Nemo121]

Well, 22nd February rolls around....

Japanese plane losses continue to outstrip mine with 6 to 9 Zeroes being downed every day now. Even accounting for a little FOW I am still comfortably preventing him building up a pool of Zeroes to allow for rapid replenishment of KB after it hits my forces in Sumatra.

In the picture below you can see my commerce raiders...

1. 2 x AMCs are raiding into the area west of the Phillipines. They should definitely find something, maybe even Tankers.

2. 1 x AMCs and 1 x large PG are moving past the Marianas in order to interdict shipping towards Truk.

3. 2 CLs and 6+DDs are going to combine and either hit enemy TFs at Legaspi or else move further north and hit shipping transitting south of Formosa. My goal then is to egress southward into the safety of the DEI/ Darwin region, repair damage and then join up with the RN battlegroup in the DEI. Additional USN forces are also on their way to Darwin via Kwajalein/Rabaul in order to reinforce the RN battlegroup also.

He should never have let me get into these positions though... there should have been recon covering the gaps I've snuck through but I think he's very focussed on bombing Manilla and actually committing to the fight to "waste" Netty units in the Marianas etc on naval search missions.

To be fair there are some naval searches coming out of the Marianas but I've been able to use submarines to plot their naval search arcs and thus have been able to avoid them, slipping around the arcs my submarines have plotted and through the gaps they've found - this is a useful tactic which has no counter ( except to cancel naval search missions entirely ) and which I've seen no-one else mention on the forums. So there's your free, simple and VERY useful tip for the day.

[Rob Brennan UK]

To be fair there are some naval searches coming out of the Marianas but I've been able to use submarines to plot their naval search arcs and thus have been able to avoid them, slipping around the arcs my submarines have plotted and through the gaps they've found - this is a useful tactic which has no counter ( except to cancel naval search missions entirely ) and which I've seen no-one else mention on the forums. So there's your free, simple and VERY useful tip for the day.

That is one useful Tip ! .. never occured to me before. Thanks

[Nemo121]

Aye, I get the distinct impression that people don't try to innovate in their tactics or strategy... It is a pity, innovation is so often rewarded when one's opponent is conventional.

Then again, mob intolerance, fear of the other, fear of the unknown, fear of a lack of control ( either internal or external ) those are the true things which unitE most of humanity.... not the free-spirited, creative stuff which risks. That irks.

[modrow]

Nemo,

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Aye, I get the distinct impression that people don't try to innovate in their tactics or strategy... It is a pity, innovation is so often rewarded when one's opponent is conventional.

Then again, the mob intolerance, fear of the other, fear of the unknown, fear of a lack of control ( either internal or external ) those are the true things which unit most of humanity.... not the free-spirited, creative stuff which risks. That irks.

Version 1:

a) never change a running system

b) all operations going wrong are due to unfortunate computer dice rolls, evident failures of game routines etc whereas all operations going right are due to the excellent system - so evidently the system is running

c) no change needed !


Version 2:

An astonishing amount of innovative, free-spirited, creative stuff simply fails. Problem is: These innovations are not promoted a lot, so nobody gets to know about them. Consequently, the few really successful innovations are broadcasted much more efficiently, leading to a completely skewed perception of the success connected to innovation and a completely unjustified enthusiasm for freedom of spirit and creativity.

As always, my 2cts.

Hartwig

[Nemo121]

Hehe, ah Hartwig " Au Contraire, Devil's Advocate" Modrow [8D],

Sure innovation fails but to see people settle for so little when a little thought could yield results... Well, it makes you wish for a global pandemic. Not because of the failure to innovate within a game but for what it says about humanity in general. Maudlin as hell isn't it?

[Nemo121]

Another day, another day of aerial combat over Kwjalein.

Today saw some 18 Zeroes and about 6 Claudes defending Kwajalein - the first time I have seen Claudes there. He has either flown in a new unit from a CV somehow or he has downgraded a Zero unit for some reason. No matter, every airframe up in the air is a potential pilot killed. In the meantime my USAAF pilots are rapidly gaining experience - many of the pilots in Roi-Namur are now at or over 70 A2A Exp and even the P-40Bs are downing more Zeroes than they lose. I managed to down at least 6, possibly up to 9 in return for confirmed losses of just 3 of my own planes.

I sent 12 B-17s against Singapore and a Zero actually managed to down one with its first firing pass. Not bad. The B-17s got a little revenge when they destroyed a Zero on the ground there.

My Catalinas from Mindanao clobbered an IJN xAKL seeking to unload at an unoccupied dot base east of Menado while an S class submarine clobbered an IJN xAK hugging the western coast of the Phillipines. I think this might just be where I send the 2 x AMC. Should be able to get some nice pickings there and then hide amongst the cluster of small islands in the southern Phillipines.

In keeping with my normal stance I won't be reacting to this invasion at all, except perhaps to re-route a submarine or two, as it is striking something which isn't vital and thus already represents a waste of time and materiel by Mike. No point committing my forces to an unnecessary riposte.

In other news the great "Hide-out in the middle of nowhere" waiting game continues.


The big news of the day is that the expected IJA assault on Changsha materialised, announcing itself with an artillery bombardment. Some 5000+ AV of IJA troops are facing just under 4,000 ( but with another 500 AV on the way tomorrow ) AV of Chinese troops. Fortunately the IJA troops are in a light urban hex ( x 2 modifier IIRC ) and have Level 6 forts ( which should be another x 2 modifier ) and almost all are 100% prepped for Changsha ( so that'd be another x 2 modifier ). So, even accounting for their terrible training and morale ( 4,500 / 3 ( because of poor morale and poor training and leadership = 1,500 x 2 ( for urban hex ) x 2 ( for Level 6 forts ) x 1.5 ( for preparation... since not all are prepped ) = 9,000 ) I figure I should be able to manage an adjusted AV of 6,000 to 9,000. This means I feel relatively safe here. His best chance for forcing me out would be an initial Shock Attack but I don't think he'll do that. I think he'll probe first, giving me experience gains etc which I can use to hold out whenever he does Shock Attack.

[Capt. Harlock]

Fortunately the IJA troops are in a light urban hex ( x 2 modifier IIRC ) and have Level 6 forts ( which should be another x 2 modifier )

IJA? I think you've forgotten you're playing the Good Guys this time . . .[;)]

[Nemo121]

No, Harlock, I'm playing as the Chinese [:D]

You are, of course, right! Double DOH!!!

Today the favourable aerial exchange rate continued with 7 Allied planes going down in return for 22 Japanese planes. Several elements of the USN are repaired and sailing to aid their brethren in the RN in the DEI and yet another R Class BB is on the scene. So, now I can mass 6 BBs in the DEI with at least another 6 ready for combat in the Pacific. So, in either theatre I now outmass the IJN battleline.

I've flown 20 level bombers, a P40 squadron and 13 Banshees into Menado to try to whittle down the shipping landing troops to the east. This will only be a hit and run raid but should still, I think, be worth it. It'll mark the beginning of the line I will defend and should force Mike to commit significant forces to further landings, forces I can then whittle down.

That's about it really for any major movement... For the rest I'm just waiting for the assaults to come in in China and figuring out how to mix and match the odds and ends of naval forces I have in the DEI. The commerce raiders are zigging and zagging everywhere to try and find targets. If this continues much longer I'm just going to send them all up to the waters around Formosa. They'll definitely hit some targets of worth there and make Mike seriously worry about future similar missions.