German vs. AI take two

[randallw]

That long thin corridor running east of Smolensk is something I have not seen much of in AARs.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

@ Jim D. This is making me very nervous- there are striking similarities to Lee's Barbarossa AAR; let's just say he did not have a very good first winter! If you can broaden your front before the blizzard hits I think that would help. AGC's northern Flank is looking a tad exposed. Regiments are not great in the front line when it gets chilly.

You have to be thinking about your 1942 start line, and imagine what it would be like if AGN loses 3-6 hexes during the winter, AGC 6-9, and AGC 8-10 hexes. If you are hoping to get Moscow in 1942 I think you need to start as close to Kalinin in the North and Tula in the South as you can, to have a base for encirclement.

The other point to note is that a fort line running along the whole front north to south will hold enough manpower for 15-20 full strength infantry divisions.

Yeah I’ve been pondering pulling 3rd Panzer Group back west a bit and heading north to try and grab a line along the Volga River if I can. That area is very thinly held and I can break through easily. I’ll give it up to the AI, after the big 6 hex breakthrough a few turns back, I thought Moscow was a goner, but it put huge numbers of units in my way and stopped me cold.

Given how tough the drive on Moscow has become (I’ve finished most of the next turn and made little to no progress), I think this current turn will be my last attempt at eastward movement for the group. I’ll use what’s left of the clear weather to go for the Volga, as that’ll be a cakewalk compared to what the group faces now.

As to the forts, I prefer the fort line vs. putting everything into the units right now. My infantry divisions are still pretty strong and replacements aren’t critically needed, only the panzer divisions are low and that is mainly due to armor shortages (some have less than 80 AFVs). I can always disband the line during winter if it gets bad then, but at least I’ll have level 3-4 forts to jump into when they do disband.

This brings up a question. How long do level 4 forts last on their own? Is there a level you can build that will not degrade once reached, even if no unit is in the hex?

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak
The Germans do rebuild destroyed units, the axis allies do not.

Awesome thanks, must have misread the rule.

Jim

[randallw]

The rule is that the Soviets player can start construction of a division by request; the German divisions come by some computer schedule.
 
Fort levels decrease if there's no unit in it; degradation occurs at a slower rate the higher the level is.  The manual gives no exact numbers though.

[Jim D Burns]

Turn 14

I only managed to clear two hexes of defenders at Leningrad this turn. Pushkin (southwest costal hex) was attacked twice, but the best I managed to do was 1.5-1 since I didn’t have a full three divisions in all three of the attacking hexes. I should be able to take the hex next turn though, as the forts were reduced from 4 to 3 this turn.

4th Panzer Group is now just one hex from the coast of Lake Ladoga and cutting the rail line to Leningrad. It also helped pocket 9 of the 10 units that had been defending west of the marshes, so it appears one unit managed to escape. 4th PG has pretty much reached the extent of its reach, so after next turn’s attacks it’ll stop attacking and sit on its lines to dig forts until the infantry attacking Leningrad can break off and replace it in the lines once bad weather arrives.

With the Soviets putting a lot of brigades in the line opposite 9th Army’s regiments north of Smolensk, they’ve begun attacking and drove the defenders back a hex this turn.

3rd Panzer Group has hit a wall. All but a few of its attacks failed this turn. So the plan next turn is to redeploy west and begin a drive north from the area around Vyazma. The hope is to take Rzhev and secure the Volga River line northwest into the mountains to link up with 4th PGs line before the mud hits.

4th Army will continue its drive east to try and secure the Oka River line before mud. If there is time they may go for Tula, but I don’t think there will be, so for now getting the river line is their goal.

2nd panzer Group didn’t quite manage to isolate Kursk this turn. Even so, they’re going to head due south next turn to drive on Kharkov. I want to try and form one last huge pocket of all the defenders west of Kharkov by using the 2nd and 1st Panzer Groups. So follow-up infantry will have to take over the job of encircling Kursk, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye over the next few turns.

1st Panzer group will cross the Dnepr south of Dnepropetrovsk and turn north to try and link with 2nd PG near Kharkov.

11th Army will take over the task of securing Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye and also drive to the coast to secure the southern flank before mud hits. The Rumanians will head for Sevastopol, though they’ll probably just take up defensive positions at the chokepoints near the neck and wait till spring to drive on the city.

I’ve placed a few red lines on this turns screenshot to give a general idea of where I want to be when mud hits. The blue arrows designate the few remaining attacks I’ll be performing.

Jim

[randallw]

I hear there's a concrete shortage in Germany.

The way the computer has stacked units to defend Leningrad, if you force some retreats the units may have to surrender, with no place to run.  Too many 3-stacks.

[Jim D Burns]

Turn 15

Pushkin falls and the Germans get their first toehold in the Leningrad suburbs. Next turn I should be able to take Kolpino, which means (if I’ve calculated the turns right) I’ll get one turn to try and take Leningrad itself before mud arrives.

4th Panzer Group makes it to the coast and cuts the rail into Leningrad. However getting supplies to the two forward hexes is problematic, I was forced to fly 4 air supply missions this turn (2 to each hex) to get the units supplies up to about 50%.

So it looks like I’ve found a use for the two panzer divisions of XL Panzer Corps after all. I’ve railed them up to get them into position this turn so they can mount a drive northeast next turn to widen the breach to the coast of Lake Ladoga. That’ll allow me to get supplies to my forward units without the need for air drops. They’ll then help clear the rest of the south bank of the Neva River if there is time.

Well I screwed up my pocket last turn and the units inside were able to move one hex and regain supply. Even so two brigades inside the pocket surrendered this turn. I was however forced to route a division that had moved south and forced some of my HQs to rebase. It would have simply been a waste of units to try and trap it again, and I simply don’t have the time to stay that far west right now, so they routed it and headed east.

3rd Panzer group made a nice breach and broke through to the north. Lead elements made it two hexes north of Rzhev, so it shouldn’t take them more than one or two turns to link up with 4th Panzer Groups line at the Pola River. Both Panzer Corps in the group will perform the linkup next turn, and the two infantry Corps will try and isolate Rzhev if they can.

9th Army infantry took up the positions vacated by 3rd PG this turn. I do not intend to stay here, but wanted to keep the line for at least one more turn to try and force the Soviets to keep heavy troops concentrated near Moscow while I finish linking the 4th and 3rd PGs. Next turn they’ll fall back to a more defensible line.

4th Army made moderate progress this turn. The number and strength of Soviet defenders they face each turn is steadily increasing, so they may not be able to take the entire river line as I’d hoped before mud arrives. But they should be able to get a good chunk of it.

2nd Panzer Group headed south as planned, but after completing my move and re-looking at things I’m kicking myself for pushing my lead two panzer divisions as far as I did. I would never have done this vs. a human opponent, so I shouldn’t have done it here.

Both divisions are exposed to being isolated next turn. I can easily break through to them, that isn’t the problem. The issue is time, I simply can’t spare a turn or two having these guys out of fuel. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the AI doesn’t do what I think it’ll do.

1st Panzer Group got across the Dnepr, but didn’t have enough movement left to send very many units north. So instead of making the same mistake with it that I made with 2nd PG, I pulled back the lead elements and will send the group north in strength next turn.

If the Soviets evacuate the threatened area, I’ll instead send them east to try and take Stalino

The Rumanians got across the Dnepr this turn and recon to the south shows several Soviet units already digging in at the chokepoints. I don’t think I’ll try to attack, I’ll simply get them up to the choke points and start to dig in.

Jim.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: randallw
The way the computer has stacked units to defend Leningrad, if you force some retreats the units may have to surrender, with no place to run.  Too many 3-stacks.

As long as it has supplies via ports, units can route out of the area as far as I know.

Jim

[Tophat1815]

THats some impressive fortifications work you have there Jim! I am sure a Frenchman would be envious of your Maginot-line of the east. I'll have to keep something like it in mind for my game with BLurking since then I'll be the Germans.

[randallw]

Of course the badside is there's manpower tied up in those things, might lead to less support squads, infantry, etc.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: randallw

Of course the badside is there's manpower tied up in those things, might lead to less support squads, infantry, etc.

I agree, there is a potential bad side, but I can reclaim the manpower in a single turn if I need it back. So there is no long term effect I can see other than the loss of APs, which I haven't missed so far.

Many of the forts are up to level 3 already, so the line should reach 4 and possibly 5 by the blizzards. Given how horrible people are stating that their blizzards are, it’s nice to know I’ll have a strong fallback line to run to if the Soviets manage to shatter my front lines.

Jim

[mmarquo]

Don't forget that the frozen rivers offer no defensive bonus; there are 12 some odd blizzard turns, so depending how you play it the Soviets will not get back any where near Kiev; but Tula/Kursk/Orel and your gains in the South will be recaptured - maybe even Kharkov. The Dnepr line will come in handy for 1944...
 
Marquo 

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

Turn 15

...I was however forced to route a division that had moved south and forced some of my HQs to rebase. It would have simply been a waste of units to try and trap it again, and I simply don’t have the time to stay that far west right now, so they routed it and headed east.

I'm trying to imagine Guderian explaining to Halder, "We held off our attack because we are worried that if we rout the enemy they will run too fast and escape the pocket. It is better to keep them happy so they stay inside the trap". LOL

I really feel this game feature needs further consideration.

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4
I really feel this game feature needs further consideration.

I’ve read your arguments on the topic, but I simply disagree with what you apparently want. It would make the game far too bloody and basically impossible for the Soviets to stay on the map past 1941.

The I go, you go nature of the game means it’s impossible for a Soviet player to avoid a trap unless the axis player simply lacks the moves to seal a pocket, that’s pretty bad already. But what you’re saying is if you almost get it they should die as well.

I view an almost closed pocket and subsequent Soviet escape to mean the soviets actually managed to filter out of danger in the nick of time and the Germans never really got anywhere near closing the pocket. I think what’s going on is you’re stuck in a 2D view of the game instead of trying to see it in 3D. Time is supposed to be happening at the same time for each side, even though it’s a turn based game.

So as far as I view things, the unit I routed was re-supplied and refueled before I got anywhere close to closing a pocket. It then marched into the German rear area and found a couple lone HQs with nothing else around for 30-40 miles, forcing them to pack up and flee to Pskov.

In the mean time a single German division comes along and attacks it from the march in a meeting engagement and the small division loses 20% of its strength and routes. Its men and remaining equipment filter back to the east and reformed a few weeks later near its HQ.

All of this is going on while the Germans are still trying to close the pocket, in other words you have to view these kinds of things as fluid and occurring over the 7 days a single turn makes up.

Just because at the end of your turn representing the 7 days it looks like you’ve pocketed the Soviets (what I mean by a 2D view of things), doesn’t mean they should automatically be trapped and die. They need a chance to show what happened during their part of those 7 days as well otherwise it would be an impossibly unfair simulation.

Failing to close a pocket simply means the Soviets had more time and options during their part of the 7 days and in most cases it means they avoided the pocket all together. In this case I started out trying to trap 10 units. In the end I’ve trapped 8, 1 escaped clean and 1 was routed. All this occurred over a three week period and seems well within the realm of reasonable outcomes here.

Had I done a better job of sealing the pocket, then none would have gotten out, but I screwed up and 2 survived because I allowed supplies to get through. For some reason you begrudge the Soviets that chance, I simply cannot back such a position as I would find it inherently unfair. The Soviets already have a huge disadvantage in the fact they move second during the week, so things are already unfair enough in my view.

Jim

[mmarquo]

Jim,
 
I totally agree with your POV. It's not as if 300,000 Soviet soldiers are sitting in place after their "move" passively watching the Axis does it's "move." On the 6th day at the 23 hour they could be slipping through just as the Axis units are about to close the kessel. This is a brilliant work around the rigid IGO UGO system.
 
Marquo [:)]

[Redmarkus5]

Jim, I think you are making a simple issue sound too complex.

If you look at the threads on casualty figures you will see instances of players (including senior testers) reporting numbers of soviet prisoners taken in the game during 1941 to be running 1 million or more below the historical number.

What this clearly suggests to me is that the game doesn't model the history well in terms of the results of encirclement operations.

When I played FiTE and Europa on a table top, it was possible to BOTH lose roughly the historical number of units to encirclements AND still successfully defend Leningrad and Moscow with my remaining forces and reinforcements. The OOBs in those games were excellent too.

Frankly, it puzzles me in the extreme that any player would not want to know that if they suffer losses on par with history they can still conduct operations on par with history...

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Jim, I think you are making a simple issue sound too complex.

If you look at the threads on casualty figures you will see instances of players (including senior testers) reporting numbers of soviet prisoners taken in the game during 1941 to be running 1 million or more below the historical number.

What this clearly suggests to me is that the game doesn't model the history well in terms of the results of encirclement operations.

When I played FiTE and Europa on a table top, it was possible to BOTH lose roughly the historical number of units to encirclements AND still successfully defend Leningrad and Moscow with my remaining forces and reinforcements. The OOBs in those games were excellent too.

Frankly, it puzzles me in the extreme that any player would not want to know that if they suffer losses on par with history they can still conduct operations on par with history...

There are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of men not modeled by the game that were taken prisoner. Prisoners were not just from combat formations, non-combatants were also rounded up in droves as orders to pull out reached them too late or simply never arrived. Maintenance and service personnel for the hundreds of thousands of vehicles modeled in game are missing, communications troops, cooks, clerk’s office workers etc. etc. etc.

Later in the war these rear echelon troops were far less likely to be caught as the Russians learned how to fight efficiently, but early on many mistakes were made.

I think the game does a pretty good job overall given the scope of the conflict. And as we all get better loose pockets will become less prevalent than they are now.

Jim

[Jim D Burns]

Turn 16 (10/2/1941)

With just one more turn of clear weather left (at least I think/hope I have one more turn), I’ve given up taking the Leningrad hex and shifted my infantry to the right to help clear the two hexes on the south bank of the Neva River next turn.

Other than those two hexes, I have no other attacks planned for the 4th Panzer group and 18th Army next turn. The rest of the turn will consist of moving infantry into/towards the hexes currently occupied by 4th PG’s units.

3rd Panzer Group managed to grab the rest of the Volga River line and also pocketed some units to the west. The north edge of the pocket was not able to be closed off completely though, so the trapped units should be able to re-establish supply lines next turn.

Soviet defenses near Rzhev were considerable, so infantry from the 3rd PG was unable to isolate the city this turn as I had hoped.

9th Army infantry pulled back from the exposed salient near Moscow and took up positions in the light woods east of Vyazma.

4th Army infantry was unable to make much headway against the strengthening Soviet defense, so I doubt they’ll achieve the Oka River line defensive positions I wanted to get to. Next turn my attacks will focus more on straightening my lines than on trying to make any significant eastward progress.

Near Kharkov the 2nd Panzer Group made good progress moving south in the effort to create a large pocket. Unfortunately when I went to seal of the southern side I found 1st Panzer Groups units lacked enough fuel to close it off. So there are still a few hexes that the Soviets can use to slip through to make good their escape.

The Rumanians ran into a lot of new defending units this turn, so they made very little progress towards the choke point hexes on the Crimean peninsula I wanted to get to. I now doubt they’ll reach them, so unless I can mount a winter offensive when snow arrives my lines in the south will be far too long and thinly held when the blizzards hit.

So I’ll redeploy the 1st and 2nd PGs to the south once mud arrives and they’ll be used in a short winter attack in the snow weather to get the Rumanians into positions where they’ll be able to defend with 3 of their divisions in each hex. That should make them at least kind of useful for a while anyway.

Jim

[Grotius]

Hey Jim,

I'm playing the Soviet side against the German AI on "Normal," and I too am on turn 16, so it's kinda fun to compare our front lines. In my game, too, the Germans have stalled just short of Leningrad, but they are 30+ miles out and not as close to Lake Ladoga as you are. The AI has barely made any progress with the Finns, though; they are close to their starting positions. How have you done up there?

Likewise, my Germans have an armor spearhead about 40-50 miles from Moscow, so again just a tad behind you.

But you've done far better in the south than the AI has done against me. It is only now bearing down on Odessa and Kursk, both of which I still hold! The AI took more time there mainly because it liquidated a big pocket of my troops in the Lvov area. Indeed, I still hold Kiev, though I will have to give it up in a turn or two, I think.

Also, my losses are slightly smaller than those of your AI opponent. I've lost 1.9 million men, 29,000 guns, 11,900 AFVs; "your" Sovs have lost 2.7 million, 33,000 guns, 12,500 AFVs.

In general, I'm pleasantly surprised with the play of my AI opponent. It's not perfect, but I haven't seen it make any real boneheaded moves. Maybe it could've been more aggressive early on. I think maybe it's missed an opportunity to push the Finns forward, and I suppose it should've diverted more troops to break out faster in the south. I think it's somewhat easier to play the Sovs early on than the Germans; the Sovs did win, after all. If I had to play this scenario again, I'd probably give the AI a boost of some sort, but not too big a boost.

[Jim D Burns]

Turn 17 (10/9/1941)

Overall this was a pretty uneventful turn everywhere except in the south.

Near Leningrad I was only able to capture one of the two hexes I wanted to take this turn. Kolpino simply proved too strongly defended to force this turn, so I’ll have to live with the bulge in my lines at least until winter, when I’ll try and take it in snow weather.

Rzhev will be another bulge in my lines I’ll have to live with. I contemplated falling back across the river to the west bank of the Volga, but decided to stay put and try and isolate and reduce Rzhev when the snows come.

In the south my lines are a mess. My panzers simply lacked the fuel to get to the coast of the Azov Sea, so a snow weather offensive will be needed here for sure. Hopefully once the remainder of the Kharkov pocket is reduced I’ll have sufficient units to adequately fill in my lines with infantry until I can launch the offensive. If not my panzers will be unable to redeploy south ahead of the planned operation.

At Zaporozhye 11th Army managed to isolate 7 units, so this will be the last pocket of the 1941 campaign. These are all small units of brigade or regiment size, so it won’t add a lot to the casualty tallies.

I should note almost every unit I face starting at about Orel and going south from there is a brigade. So I’ve apparently caused the Soviets grievous loss in the numbers of divisions it can field on map and it has built a lot of new brigades to compensate as stop gaps to allow it to have units in every hex.

I’m hopeful that this will blunt the sting of the Blizzard offensives. Though that is probably just wishful thinking on my part.

With the 1941 campaign at an end I’ll recap what I think about my progress in game so far.

In the north I’m happy with the progress made towards Leningrad. Had I pushed the AI hard and taken advantage of its inability to recognize, target and isolate lone panzer divisions far ahead of the rest of my units, I could have probably taken the city. But given the fact I played in a manner I would against a human opponent, I feel I can repeat my accomplishment of cutting the rail and taking most of the Volkhov River line vs. a human opponent when I play one.

In the center I’m less pleased with myself. Had I not had the big six hex breakthrough that got me so close to Moscow, I’d have probably diverted 3rd Panzer Group earlier. That would have meant I could have taken Rzhev, Torzhok and probably Kalinin as well. In the future I will not even think about Moscow as a goal in 1941, and I’ll use the panzer Group to help cut gaps into less well defended areas of the lines.

In the south, my early mistake of sending panzers into the Pripyat Marshes to help seal the Kovel pocket cost me about 500,000 potential prisoners. Had I sent them south early I could have captured far more stuff than I did.

I also made a more recent mistake in not watching my low fuel levels with the 1st Panzer Group when I tried to form the Kharkov pocket. Given the shorter reach of the panzers I should have sent them south to the coast instead, to help shorten my front lines. Now I’ll have to launch a winter offensive to accomplish this task and that means there won’t be any real fortifications to sit in when the blizzards hit.

In the future I think 1st Panzer Group will focus more on moving to the south than heading east towards Kiev as they did this game. There is a lot of ground to take in the south and if I ever hope on taking Rostov in 1941, the group has to head that way with Rostov as its goal starting on turn one.

Jim