Tres Amigos Dos! JAM v Flaviusx (no Flaviusx)

[jjdenver]

Jam - if Flav is reading this thread, and ComradeP is reading this thread - and seeing thoughts/strategies that will also apply immediately to your game against him - you might consider "delayed posting" - i.e. not posting an AAR turn until it's ~4 turns past....or more (6 turns, 8 turns)? This will cause a delay now in posting your AAR but in a week or 2 you can pick up posting at a similar pace again. Just an idea.

--cheers

[ComradeP]

I'd be fine with this thread also being "no ComradeP" and the other thread also being "no Flaviusx", if James feels his strategy won't differ greatly between the games in the early turns.

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

I'd be fine with this thread also being "no ComradeP" and the other thread also being "no Flaviusx", if James feels his strategy won't differ greatly between the games in the early turns.

Hi Pieter,

No problem with you viewing this thread. My first turn progress in both games was very similar, but how the strategic direction evolves, will depend largely on events, and my opponent's responses, in each. Thus, even though each of you could see the other game, and guess roughly how my forces were arrayed at the end of turn one, everything will change by degrees, based on how you react. I've already got Flavio's first turn back, and it's interesting. I'll be anxiously awaiting your own first turn's completion to see how things will differ between two highly acclaimed Soviet players.

[JAMiAM]

I anxiously awaited Flavio's first turn. What type of defense would he present? Would he counterattack? Would he hit my honeypots? Elsewhere? Having only read his numerous comments on these boards, I had an idea how he *might* play, but until you get that first turn back from a new opponent, you can never truly get a good feel for the guy.

As I open up my turns, I generally scan the map, check for battle locations, check the event log, and my casualty reports. Flavio's first turn had no battle locations except for the usual odd surrender here and there in pockets. No recon, no counterattacks, and not very many Soviets in sight. Oh...there were Soviet units screening almost my entire line, but there was no discernable concentration of force anywhere. Time to do recon!

This screenshot shows the northern half of the active front, prior to recon.

[JAMiAM]

Oh where, oh where, has my little dog run? Oh where, oh where, can he be?
With 500 missions of recon run, oh now, oh now can I see...[:D]

Yes, you read correctly. I ran over 500 recon missions this turn to get a good idea of exactly where, and how, Flavio was intending to face the Axis Juggernaut. This screenshot shows the northern half, after recon.

Flavio is screening and attempting to set up a checkerboard defense over much of the length of this area. He has already started to form a line at the Dvina/Dnepr landbridge, and has a few units moving into positions east of the Upper Dnepr, near Mogilev. Since my infantry is still so far behind, I am going to have to face down this checkerboard with my three Pz Gruppen, so that I can maintain forward momentum, convert the territory for maximizing my infantry's approach rate, and to keep his defenders in a routed and disorganized state. You can see that there are already weak zones where his forces have still not recovered from the previous turn's spanking.

[JAMiAM]

With his ears cut short and his tail cut long, oh where, oh where can he be?

This screenshot shows the southern half of the active front, before recon. Again, a screening of my forward units. Flavio is the kind of defender who gives up nothing without at least some fight. Even if it is only a token resistance, it does keep my units from more fully recovering fatigue, and contributes to my attrition losses. More on that aspect, in a later posting.

Anyhow, what kind of defense will he offer me here, where he is strongest? I wonder...

[JAMiAM]

Ah...how nice. He's rolled out the Red Carpet. At least along my primary axis of advance, from Tarnopol to Proskurov. He's got a screen and checkerboard protecting his forming lines along the Goryn River behind Rovno, a solid river defense line down to the Goryn/Zbruch landbridge, a carpet in the landbridge, in front of Proskurov. Further south, he's trying to extricate 6th and 12th armies, running them eastward along the Rumanian frontier, and setting up along the Dnestr River. In fact, he's played this almost exactly as I would. Good show!

Later, I'll show the cracking of this defense and the linking with the Rumanians. Unfortunately, time constraints prevent a detailed analysis, and exposé of the methods and techniques. All I can say for the moment is plan, focus, concentrate, and in the words of Guderian "Klotzen, nicht Kleckern!"

[JAMiAM]

Since the thread page breaks after post 30, I'm going to post a little 'out of order' so that screens that really should be viewed together, or at least in close proximity are not split onto different thread pages. So, here is a screenshot of the starting ground losses, to get an idea of how much the losses due to attrition, and Soviet surrenders, during the logistics phases were. Comparing with my end of turn shot from turn one, you can see that the majority of my losses at this stage of the game are coming from attrition. Flavio is seeking to maximize this loss by staying in contact with my forces as much as possible. Of course, it also increases his own attritional losses, but what's eighty thousand dead Soviets between friends?...[:D]

[JAMiAM]

Proskurov's Red Carpet Welcome.

Here is a more zoomed in shot of the area around Tarnopol-Proskurov, where the major action of the turn will take place. Don't misunderstand me here, since I was very busy all over the map, clearing pockets, brushing away checkers from Flavio's checkerboards. However, here is where the Axis met with the stiffest resistance offered up on this turn. The rest of the map was fairly low intensity fighting.

This shot shows the forces arrayed before my attacks...

[JAMiAM]

And...at the end of my turn. The Soviets west of Chernovtsy are no trapped, and the Red Carpet blocking the path to Proskurov has been rolled up.

Actually, I'm not overly pleased with the results here. The newly activating 1st Pz Gp reserves (3 Motorized Inf Divisions) and the XIV Pz Korps had lousy initiative rolls for their movement, and thus did not get their full movement rates. This limited how far I could go into the exploitation zone, and how wide I could keep my breakthrough point. As it turned out, my breakthrough zone was too narrow for my liking, and I won't be surprised if Flavio either flows back into the newly converted hexes north of my breakthrough, or even counterattacks to try and cut off my schwerpunkt.

On the plus side, my infantry is catching up and will be able to attack any Soviets that are unable to get away. However, I'm planning on this battle being only one of a series of multi-turn, moving pocket battles, where I keep trying to close the trap, and Flavio doing his college best at keeping the noose from drawing tight.

[JAMiAM]

Here are the air losses at the start of the turn. Notice the difference between the end of last turn, and the start of this turn? This is due to the training missions losses. Flavio initiated no battles, flew no recon, and from the looks of it, evacuated virtually all of his air groups to the National Reserve on his first turn. Where and when they are going to show up is anybody's guess at this stage, and rather beside the point of the post.

The point I was trying to make, before I got sidetracked, is that with the latest v1.03, Beta 3 build, you will find that the losses due to training missions will generally be much higher than it was before. Roughly twice as many planes will be lost in training missions, as were previously. How to avoid this? Well...fly more missions!

Training missions are generally flown by those air groups that haven't been flying in active combat, so the best way to keep from having excessive training mission losses, is to grind down your air force in a constant state of heavy usage...[:D]

But seriously, it does make for a "use 'em, or lose 'em" mentality. If you're going to lose the airframes anyhow, you might as well go down, killing as many of the enemy as you can. Besides, I know that Flavio's losses due to pilot training are even more severe than my own, since pilot experience and unflown miles factors into the training mission losses. A small silver lining to this cloud.

[JAMiAM]

I'm going to go ahead and show the end turn air losses here, since it's nice and close to the above screenshot. This shows another aspect of my turn's performance that I'm not too pleased with. My operational air losses. As mentioned before, if I don't use them, I will end up losing more in training. So, with the need to keep the pressure on with the numerous ground attacks I had to make this turn - rolling up carpet, encircling Soviets, and knocking Flavio's checkers off the board - my air units took fairly heavy losses this turn.

It should be noted that Flavio's air force was almost completely absent. Recon showed his airbases devoid of any assigned air groups. Virtually all of my midturn air losses were due to flak.

[JAMiAM]

This screenshot shows the progress and ending force dispositions in the northen half of the active map. As the game goes on, I'll likely have to split this into a north, center, south, and maybe even more, since my current monitor display is a rather pathetic 1280x960, and I don't want to take the time to do the cut and paste that others have done (notenome, in particular, has some extremely impressive multi-image collages).

As you can see, Flavio's checkerboard did not hold up against a series of hasty attacks by my Pz Korps. I was able to clear much of his delaying troops routing them back with fairly light losses to my own forces. This will start the steady drain on his units morale, and make subsequent turns easier than they might otherwise be. My infantry is marching as fast as it can go to keep up, but it will probably be turns three and four, before they meet up with any solid Soviet resistance. Then, I will be able to let the Panzers rest for the next stage...

Minsk is still in Soviet hands, as it held off a hasty attack by two infantry divisions, and then a deliberate attack by two-thirds of a Panzer Korps. My only real disappointment in the northern half, for this turn.

[JAMiAM]

The end of turn screenshot for the southern half.

The Rumanians and 11th Army linked with the 17th Army, and 1st Pz Gp, cutting off the remaining Soviet forces along the Carpathians. 6th Army kept forward pressure on the checkerboard screen and advanced as fast as they could. The new changes in morale are really hurting the Axis in situations like this. In my opinion, for the early game, at least, the loss of morale inflation hurts the Axis much more than the changes to swamp, rough, and heavy forest end up helping them. How much effect this change has over the course of the game, still remains to be seen, but my prediction is that the Soviets will come out ahead, due to the changes. Unfortunate, given the pre-patch complaints by many that the Axis are behind the eight-ball in the game.

I suppose that just means that I have to do even better...[:D]

[JAMiAM]

And finally, to round out the turn's events, the end of turn ground loss totals. As you can see, my ground losses are very low, due to the lack of much effective resistance. Checkerboards, in my opinion, are highly overrated. I lost twice as much in combat losses on the first turn, and almost three times these losses due to attrition. I was also able to clear enemy territory at a fast enough rate that my infantry is still going to be unimpeded by enemy forces. In other words, much ado about nothing, if you ask me...

[mmarquo]

Where are you going? Kiev is east, not south...[:)]

[raizer]

ORIGINAL: Marquo

Where are you going? Kiev is east, not south...[:)]

OKH needs to rotate its road maps 1 click counter clockwise

[Blind Sniper]

I will follow this AAR too, good luck!

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: Marquo

Where are you going? Kiev is east, not south...[:)]

That would be telling...[;)]

Better to reveal what I do, and not what I intend to do.

[alfonso]

Why in Ukarainia there are converted hexes far from your Axis units? Did you advance and then retreat?