Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: treespider

On to Fuel...

What does a Fuel point roughly equate to - ton, barrel, kiloliter, gallon?

I forgot.

A kiloton of Plutonium. [:D]

Thinking of "Free China" as opposed to occupied China - apparently it is very close to running out of resources to sustain output and when the (usual) IJ early game conquests occur it does run short. Is that realistic? Your comment about occupied China begin low on resource production is what sparks the question.
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by JWE »

ORIGINAL: treespider
On to Fuel...

What does a Fuel point roughly equate to - ton, barrel, kiloliter, gallon?

I forgot.
A Fuel point equates to a "Point". Some fuel points might correspond to a "ton", but others might correspond to a "majorshitload". You don't have to have a point to make a point, and points aren't all that pointed when ya look at the point. So looking at points is kinda pointless, yeah?
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

ORIGINAL: JWE

ORIGINAL: treespider
On to Fuel...

What does a Fuel point roughly equate to - ton, barrel, kiloliter, gallon?

I forgot.
A Fuel point equates to a "Point". Some fuel points might correspond to a "ton", but others might correspond to a "majorshitload". You don't have to have a point to make a point, and points aren't all that pointed when ya look at the point. So looking at points is kinda pointless, yeah?

Yes, No, Sometimes, Maybe...
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by Shark7 »

ORIGINAL: treespider

Refresh my memory do resources flow from Hokkaido to Honshu?

Best I could tell, even if they do, its more efficient to load them in ships, which is what I do.
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by JWE »

ORIGINAL: treespider
Yes, No, Sometimes, Maybe...
[:D][:D][:D][:D] Yeah, well enough of my rambling. Glad you took it in the spirit in which it was offered. Ciao. John
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by Local Yokel »

ORIGINAL: treespider

Houston...we have a problem.

Did a quick and dirty scrub down of resources For Japan and the various regions...after Yokel's concerns...

Using 1941 as my base line in comparison with Scenario #1-

Manchuria in game produces 29,600 resources daily or 10,804,000 yearly and consumes 13,700 daily or 5,000,500 yearly leaving a net difference of 5,803,500 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Occupied China in game produces 13,200 resources daily or 4,818,000 yearly and consumes 8,800 daily or 3,212,000 leaving a net difference of 1,606,000 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Problem is Occupied China exported over 4 mil tons of coal to Japan in 1941...far more than the 1.6 mil available in game.

It appears that Mainland Asia is under-represented resource wise. By my calculations Manchuria should have roughly 3500 resource centers as opposed to the 1480 in Stock-AE.

Likewise Occupied China should have should have close to 5,0000 resource centers vs...the 660 currently. Korea is also light....

Those numbers could be fudged with .... the industry in those areas is already operating at full capacity resource wise ...so additional resource centers would not tip the balance in any way other than to provide more resources available for export to Japan.

As it stands per Tracker 1.7.1

Stock AE Scenario 1
At Start Resource Production -
Japanese Small Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Small Islands - 300
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -600
Korea – 9200
Formosa – 1200
Manchuria – 13700
China – 8800
Indochina – 1300
Total = 35,100

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 35,100 = 42,500 available for export to Japan

Japan has a 44,500 point daily deficit to make up which translates to 16,242,500 points yearly.

So all of the excess RP in those areas described above still cannot offset the deficit in resources.

To implement my mod I will need to increase the resource centers in Manchuria and China to offset the balance.

I want my available resources for import yearly to equal if not exceed 20,000,000 points as I plan on creating a 20,000,000 point demand in Japan.

Using my earlier algorithm...

With Treespider’s Changes
At Start Resource - Production
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -800
Korea – 9350
Formosa – 1600
Manchuria – 15,000
China – 9400
Indochina – 1500
Total = 38050

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 38050 = 39,050 available for export to Japan

HOWEVER I need this figure to approach 55,000 which means I need to account for an additional 16,000 RP a day in potential production. 16,000 / 20 = 800 Resource centers

I think I can divide 800 resource centers across existing centers in Manchuria and Occupied China.


WOOOF!



Thanks! It did seem to me that something was amiss with what was coming out of Manchukuo and N. China in particular.

OK, now we have a basis for assessing what the impact on Japanese shipping might be.

An increase in Japan's daily resource imports of 16,000 points translates to about 3.42 extra Aden Maru class ships (loading 4,670 resources apiece) landing their Manchurian/N. Chinese cargoes in Japan each day. My Dairen-Moji shuttles seem to average a round trip in between 7 and 8 days inclusive of loading/unloading. Therefore, 3.42 extra ships times, say, 7.5 days = 25.65 rounded to 26 extra vessels being required to carry the additional resource load.

In my testbed variation of BabesLite (in which I've made no changes that would affect these calculations) I've been running 4 such shuttle convoys between Port Arthur (Dairen) and Moji(-Shimonoseki). Each contains an average of about 19 vessels (all Adens). I'm attaching a composite image from Tracker showing the 40 day history of resource stockholdings at Dairen and the sailing pattern of one of the shuttles - in this case DM-4. Damn, those Moji stevedores work like demons!

I think this may be an apposite image because from what I can tell every mainland resource point east of Hankow that doesn't get grabbed by local industry gets sucked remorselessly to Dairen by the game's land transport mechanism - hence Dairen, rightly or wrongly, is a really good place to observe what is happening to mainland resources. And the pattern seems to be that within 3 days of the campaign's start all surplus resources have congregated at Dairen for onward transport to Japan. The image suggests that, with 77 ships applied to that transport task in four convoys, the glut is being reduced at a rate such that no surplus will remain to be lifted within 10 to 20 days, after which I estimate that up to half the ships currently dedicated to this Dairen-Moji shuttle can be released to other duties (to the Marquesas, Brazil and beyond!). If that's an accurate assessment, then finding an additional 26 vessels to lift the extra 16,000 resources becomes something that my existing arrangements would simply take in their stride.

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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by Shark7 »

ORIGINAL: treespider

Houston...we have a problem.

Did a quick and dirty scrub down of resources For Japan and the various regions...after Yokel's concerns...

Using 1941 as my base line in comparison with Scenario #1-

Manchuria in game produces 29,600 resources daily or 10,804,000 yearly and consumes 13,700 daily or 5,000,500 yearly leaving a net difference of 5,803,500 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Occupied China in game produces 13,200 resources daily or 4,818,000 yearly and consumes 8,800 daily or 3,212,000 leaving a net difference of 1,606,000 points/tons available for export to Japan.

Problem is Occupied China exported over 4 mil tons of coal to Japan in 1941...far more than the 1.6 mil available in game.

It appears that Mainland Asia is under-represented resource wise. By my calculations Manchuria should have roughly 3500 resource centers as opposed to the 1480 in Stock-AE.

Likewise Occupied China should have should have close to 5,0000 resource centers vs...the 660 currently. Korea is also light....

Those numbers could be fudged with .... the industry in those areas is already operating at full capacity resource wise ...so additional resource centers would not tip the balance in any way other than to provide more resources available for export to Japan.

As it stands per Tracker 1.7.1

Stock AE Scenario 1
At Start Resource Production -
Japanese Small Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Small Islands - 300
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -600
Korea – 9200
Formosa – 1200
Manchuria – 13700
China – 8800
Indochina – 1300
Total = 35,100

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 35,100 = 42,500 available for export to Japan

Japan has a 44,500 point daily deficit to make up which translates to 16,242,500 points yearly.

So all of the excess RP in those areas described above still cannot offset the deficit in resources.

To implement my mod I will need to increase the resource centers in Manchuria and China to offset the balance.

I want my available resources for import yearly to equal if not exceed 20,000,000 points as I plan on creating a 20,000,000 point demand in Japan.

Using my earlier algorithm...

With Treespider’s Changes
At Start Resource - Production
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus - 800
Sakhalin -10400
Korea – 13800
Formosa – 3400
Manchuria – 29600
China – 13200
Indochina – 6000
Total = 77,600

At Start Resource Consumption
Japanese Islands - 400
Ryukus -0
Sakhalin -800
Korea – 9350
Formosa – 1600
Manchuria – 15,000
China – 9400
Indochina – 1500
Total = 38050

Production – Consumption = Total Available for Export to Home Islands
77,600 – 38050 = 39,050 available for export to Japan

HOWEVER I need this figure to approach 55,000 which means I need to account for an additional 16,000 RP a day in potential production. 16,000 / 20 = 800 Resource centers

I think I can divide 800 resource centers across existing centers in Manchuria and Occupied China.


WOOOF!



Treespider, think you may be onto something.
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

ORIGINAL: JWE

ORIGINAL: treespider
Yes, No, Sometimes, Maybe...
[:D][:D][:D][:D] Yeah, well enough of my rambling. Glad you took it in the spirit in which it was offered. Ciao. John


Well you'll like the next little chart I post... which speaks to your fuel dilema...and Fuel usage in the SRA... but first some editing....
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

ORIGINAL: JWE

Ok, so here's my basis and also my dilema.
Image
Oil:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) produces 2,250 Oil; DEI/Burma produces 30,000 Oil. Now, Oil is not used for ANYTHING, except as an input to Refineries.

Refineries:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) has 1035 Refineries; DEI/Burma has 2330 Refineries. So the tendency will be to 2/3 of Oil production right where it is, thereby requiring squat for tanker tonnage to move it.

Refineries produce Fuel and Supply:
Japan (and a few 'elsewhere' places) produces 9315 Fuel and 1035 Supply; DEI/Burma produces 20970 Fuel and 2330 Supply. So they are entirely self-sufficient and any HI in those areas just dump HI points into the pools, so there is a completely self-sustaining economy going on, in which ONLY EXCESS "Fuel" needs to be transported to Japan to run the marginal differential HI. Who gives a rat where the Fuel comes from, and who gives a rat where the HI points come from: if there's a completely functional economy happening in DEI/Burma, then screw Japan's requirements, she'll get what's left over. DEI/Burma becomes the gas station and supply center for anything and everything happening South of Hong Kong. The Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

HI:
Japan has 6170 HIs that require 12,340 Fuel (and 123,400 Res) and output 12,340 HI Points and 12,340 Supply. Other places (Elsewhere and Capturable) have 980 HIs that require 1,960 Fuel (and 19,600 Res) and output 1,960 HI Points and 1,960 Supply. Clearly, the "Other" places have all the Fuel and Resources they need for full output, so again the Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

The only requirement for Japan is to import the marginal Fuel and Resources necessary for airframe and engine factory requirements "over and above" those already being put into the pools by "Other" places, so again the Japanese Home Islands become marginalized to the extent the SRA is secured.

LI:
Didn't feel like adding up all the ants, so just using Spideys numbers, Japan has 7900 LIs that require 118,500 Resources and output 7900 Supply. Other places (at game start, and NOT including anything Capturable) have 980 LIs that require 19,600 Resources and output 1960 Supply, i.e, 9340 LIs that require 140,100 Resources and output 9340 Supply in toto.

Since the native and capturable HI and Refineries produce 14,670 Supply, and generates it in places that are closer to the front, one wonders why one should ship resources to Japan to feed the LI machine. Indeed, one wonders why they shouldn't turn off the Japanese LI machine altogether.

So:
Only things that have to flow are Fuel (in decreasing quantities as areas are captured) and Resources (also in decreasing quantities, just not as bad). So the initial imperitive of capturing someplace and bringing the goodies home, is no longer valid. And the initial concept of using the merchant fleet to bring those goodies home, is no longer valid either.

Ciao. John


I believe this little chart speaks to your dilema...



...now that i'm back from the High School basketball game lets get down to some ballpark number crunching and an idizzy I have for fuel with my mod of the economy.



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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

OK for the arguments sake lets say a Fuel point is a ton of fuel...yuk-yuk...which roughly translates to 7 barrels per ton.

In my mod 1 refinery consumes 10 Oil and produces 10 Fuel.

Japan had the following refining capacity:

Image


So Their peak efficiency was 1941 where they only made use of 42,500 barrels per day. Divide by 7 and we see 6,071 "points".

So if each refinery point consumes 10 points and produces 10 points we need 607 refineries undamaged and ready to operate in Japan.

Now we can also start some undamaged and unready to operate....pick a number but lets not go higher than 116,000/7 = 16571 / 10 = 1657 - 607 = 1050 additional possible refinery potential in Japan.

The 607 refinery points will require 6070 oil points will generate 6070 Fuel points. The current Home island Oil production is 1110 oil points. Only 1/6th of domestic refinery needs...So to make full use of Home Island Refineries...an additional 5000 oil points per day need to brought in. And that gets the Japanese to 6070 fuel points.

However HI requires twice that amount so an additional 6000 Fuel points will need to be schlepped in daily to meet the needs of Heavy Industry. That totals 11,000 points per day or 4,015,000 points per year...multiply by 7 = 28,105,000 barrels per year....to break even.

Do the Japanese have the tankerage to meet the 11,000 point per day demand?


Guess what - The Cabinet Planning Board estimated that by the third year of occupation the Japanese would be importing 30 million barrels and in reality they only ever imported 1/2 that number.

I think current Fuel usage by industry is pretty accurate...home island refining may need to be adjusted downward however.

The "problem" arises with the question of in what state do the Japanese acquire the SRA fields and refineries...

Next up - a look at what the SRA produces in game versus history...




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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by witpqs »

Tankerage is needed for the oil and desired for the fuel, but xAK's can be used for the fuel as well. In fact, as long as enough tankerage is available for the oil that's fine. The effort is (mostly) about putting IRL stress on the merchant marine, so xAK's being needed to haul fuel seems just fine.

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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Tankerage is needed for the oil and desired for the fuel, but xAK's can be used for the fuel as well. In fact, as long as enough tankerage is available for the oil that's fine. The effort is (mostly) about putting IRL stress on the merchant marine, so xAK's being needed to haul fuel seems just fine.

True?

True...

However I just realized an "error" in my above analysis of fuel...

The totals are simply what is need to keep industry humming along...and provides for no excess for ship fuel...bear with me whilst i round up some numbers...
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

First up some charts...

Fuel Oil use by the Navy...

Peak year - 1942
10,818,000 barrels /7 = 1,545,428 points per year /365= 4234 points per day...note this does not include Diesel Fuel or Civilian Fuel Oil usage...


Next up Fuel Oil Production and Imports...

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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

Fuel Oil Imports -

This is very interesting...over the period 1942 through 1944 the Japanese only imported 2,151,000 barrels of fuel oil. That works out to an average of 717,000 barrels per year...or 1964 barrels per day ...or 280 Fuel Points per day. These would be the points used by ships.


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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

Fuel Oil Production -

So 1943 was the Japanese best year for domestic Fuel Oil Production. A total of 6,171,000 barrels were manufactured. Doing our math that is 881,571 points or 2415 points per day.



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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

Not sure what to make of all this....

The navy was burning through Fuel faster than the Japanese could manufacture it...

So maybe bottom line is my first proposition was accurate enough... At Start to break even on Industry the Japanese need to import 6000 fuel and 5000 Oil....which roughly = 28 million barrels per year. If they expand refineries by repairing them (which could simulate synthetic refineries coming online as well) they could possibly run a small fuel surplus depending on Navy usage and additional imports.....which I think I like.


Now onto the SRA.
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

Pre-War NEI Oil Production

Total = 65,100,000 barrels /7= 9,300,000 points /365= 25,479 oil points per day /10 = 2,548 Oil centers.


Peak Japanese NEI Production

Total = 49,626,000 barrels /7 = 7,089,428 points /365 = 19,423 oil points per day /10 = 1,942 Oil Centers.



Refinery Throughput Pre-War was almost if not the same as crude production.

Refinery throughput during the war was roughly 50% of Crude production.

In 1942 after occupation Refinery throughput:
13,870,000 barrels /7= 1981428 points /365= 5428 points = 542 refineries

1943
23,398,000 barrels /7= 3,342,571 points /365= 9157 = 916 refineries

916 - 542 = 374 refineries repaired in 365 days. Spread out over several refineries is easily doable.

1944 saw peak Japanese refinery throughput with the equivalent of 1050 refineries producing.

So my suggestion is to start the NEI refineries partially damaged... with perhaps a total potential of 1200 present to be generous.

Currently there are 1960 refineries present in the NEI, as well as 2275 Oil Centers ...fairly historical.



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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by witpqs »

The fly in the ointment is that sometimes the Allies do succeed in seeing the oil centers and/or refineries damaged upon capture. Pre-damaging them - I don't know. Might be too much of a burden on Japanese players.
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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

Anywho... that's my take on things...

Bottom Line:

1. Add 800 resource centers to Occupied China/ Manchuria
2. Set LI to 20 Resources IN - 2 Supply OUT
3. Set HI to 15 Resources IN , 2 Fuel IN - 2 HI Out
4. Set Refineries to 10 Oil IN - 10 Fuel OUT
5. Reduce Japanese At-Start Home Island Refineries to 610 with an additional 290 damaged.
6. Reduce NEI Refineries to 1200 Total and start out 20% of Total Damaged...so some could be completely toasted and others full strength
7. Spread 4000 Daily supply across the Japanese Home Island Bases.
8. House rule where a player cannot actively shutdown an industry.



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RE: Tweaking the Japanese/Allied Economies

Post by treespider »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The fly in the ointment is that sometimes the Allies do succeed in seeing the oil centers and/or refineries damaged upon capture. Pre-damaging them - I don't know. Might be too much of a burden on Japanese players.


True...

...need to link to this thread in my Mod Thread.
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