After the action - Axis GC with hopes of victory (no Duality, my dear Soviet Comrade!)

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I am currently through 14 turns of my first PBEM, GC 41-45, all settings normal, random weather, FOW playing as the Axis. While I don't have time for a regular AAR, here is a snapshot of progress so far as we come towards the critical turn in the weather to blizzard. As we get into the extreme weather, I will post more regular updates to see whether a good German opening can withstand the onslaught of the first winter in Russia. Since the game is well and truly underway, I can be a little more forthcoming about strategy in the first few weeks.

So, to begin: what happened in the first week of the war?

There was a significant blitz on Soviet airfields, with over 5500 planes damaged and destroyed: losses were minimal as is common. Following this blitz, the German advance commenced with 4th Pz Group driving hard to the Daugava capturing Daugvapils, Plavinas and Riga. 1st Panzer Division distinguished itself, with little fuel left in dislodging strong forces from that last city. Already, the drive to Leningrad was emphasised, with XXIIIrd Corps of 9th Army pushing to the north, ready to join 18th and 16th Armies. Clearing Kaunas and Vilnius, 3rd Pz group dashed east to the gates of Minsk, linking up with 2nd PzGroup from the south and creating two large pockets around Bialystok and Lida, west of Minsk. Infantry in each panzer group and 4th and 9th armies screened off the trapped Russians and slogged forward to catch the mechanised forces.

To the south, a daring gambit by 11th Pz Division opened the way to the Rumanian border but it and most of the forward divisions from 1st Pz Army were then trapped by the Russian defensive manoeuvres. However, this had been expected and each division had been air-dropped significant supplies. XXXXVIth Pz Corps detached from 2nd Pz Group to work with the infantry around Kovel to trap strong advanced Russian forces. 17th and 6th armies concentrated on moving into the breach at the frontier west of Rovno and north of Lvov. Only in the south had the Soviets been able to counter this dramatic opening successfully but had already lost nearly 300,000 men and 2000 tanks.

The plan at this stage was: Leningrad in the north as a key target; strong emphasis on destroying units in the centre and south, but with the equally important aim of getting across the Dnepr at Mogilev and Kiev as fast as possible to link 2nd and 1st Pz groups. The dash to Rumania was not designed to hold the pocket around Lvov but to so impede withdrawal that, on Turn 2, the pocket could be secured with the released elements of 1st Pz Group.

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And here is the map from the south:

I was quite pleased with the opening: however the next turn was to bring both a shock in the centre and a significant advance in the south.

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By the end of the second week, around 100 Soviet units had been destroyed, for a total of around 750,000 casualties. However, poor flank security north of the Pripyat marshes led to an unexpected counter by the excellent Soviet defenders, and the entire AGC armoured spearhead that had driven towards Mogilev was now cut off. 14th Mot. Division was on the eastern banks, but surrounded. Destroying the pocket at Bialystok had taken more time than had been anticipated. To the north, 4th PzGroup was driving like an spear thrust at Pskov, careless of the flanks and relying on the infantry to catch up and clear. Time was of the essence - with the weather very changeable, anything could happen (and as we will see, it did!). Whether or not the Russians sensed it, the extended drive of the northern panzers, reinforced with elements from 3rd Pz Group, was designed to fork the defenders...threatening Moscow and Leningrad at the same time. However, under pressure from the Finnish allies who dearly wanted to get to grips with the Soviet aggressors, Leningrad was the real goal (this time ).

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To the south, the Rumanian gambit was working as expected. The infantry was clearing the isolated units around Lvov and Stanislav. While the panzers were again isolated (and had been supplied against this contingency), the defenders enthusiasm to stand and fight meant that a much larger encirclement was now possible. You might notice the Pz Division now attached to 11th Army that has breached the Dnestr, south of the rough terrain below Proskurov. This unit is going to play a crucial role in this turn. All along the front in AGS, the plan now is to trap the defenders who have attempted to trap the German advance!

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So, at the start of turn 4, we now see the consequences of the 'trap the panzers' approach by the defenders. In the north, as shown below, the advance on Pskov is largely static (supplies were running low and I was fearful of another encirclement without the means to break it); I have cleared out and reconnected with the advanced forces around the Dnepr and in doing so have gained a vital foothold across the river. Without this bridgehead, the German attack can, in my opinion, get too narrowly focused at the Smolensk gap - while it is tempting to keep the panzes away from the river, I had wanted to maintain a wider advance to stretch the defences more. The infantry struggles to catch up - I am probably wasting more units than I need screening the Pripyat Marshes: a lesson learned for future games.

Now see what happened south:

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AGS has had a major success: while risky, the 1st Pz operations, aided by the corps from 2nd Pz group, now assigned to 1st pz Group, have meant a significant entrapment. Key to this was the operations of the panzer division that had dashed south - aided by the Rumanian armour (my favourate sneaky unit, at least until it actually has to do any fighting!).

11th Army has become a little more northerly oriented than I would like (which perhaps has consequences later), but you can also see how the pocket holds as much because of the extent of the 'band' of German controlled hexes, rather than the specific placement of units.

ON this screenshot I've highlighted the isolated units:

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So, that is pretty much the first month of the game, which sets up the remainder of what is to happen.

Turn 5 was largely a pocket-crushing exercise in AGS and, because of the lack of defenders, during Turn 5 I also breached the Dnepr at Kiev with most of the 1st Pz Group's armour. I consolidated over the Dnepr to the north, but had not got close to capturing Smolensk. The infantry was catching up to 4th Pz Group and I was at the Oredezh river. Turn 6 was mud in most of the USSR and everything stopped; some gains in the south, around Odessa. Turn 7 was mud in the far south; progress made towards Leningrad and Smolensk, but tough fighting. 2nd PzGroup had a clearer run south to try and link with 1st Pz Group but there was a lot of Soviet resistance and various divisions in both areas were cut off for a time.

By the start of Turn 9, (mid-august), the following situation had developed (three posts)

In the north, I had managed to get the majority of my army east of the defensive works, pushing up the west bank of the Volkhov:

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In the middle, things were still pretty difficult around Smolensk though I had manoeuvred him out of that city by threatening the north with 3rd Pz Group - a good example of how panzers fight by MOVING, not by fighting.

I think I got the emphasis right -- the drive on Moscow was always secondary, and 2nd Pz was nearly joined with 1st Pz - the fact the pocket was loose didn't matter in the long run since most of the troops did not escape.

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Finally, at mid-August, the far south had not gone much according to plan. My overemphasis to the north of 11th army, and some forward resistance had led to strong defences on the lower Dnepr. Odessa being held also impeded my supply lines. My response, as shown below, was to go around the defences (no way those Rumanians are going to cross at the Black Sea end). You can see the routed unit - my Rumanian armoured division - which shows why you can't rely on allies too much .

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So, to come up to date... or at least as close as opsec will allow. I have just completed Turn 14 - here is what happened between Turn 9 and 13.

The pressure on Leningrad was becoming intense, especially to the east where I rapidly secured the western two ports on Lake Ladoga, using panzers and infantry together. Now my opponent suffered from a stroke of misfortune: like me, he had not realised that the Finnish no attack line is NOT a Finnish no move line. I discovered this when my Finnish cavalry got a clear move path over the line and I exploited it. By the start of Turn 12 (4 September), I had not only cut off the defenders on the edge of Lake Ladoga, but also the supply line to the final port and thus Leningrad as well. To some extent, this turn of events was balanced by the return of mud in early September which closed down all offensive operations around Leningrad (aside from a few attacks to the far west). Equally, the defences which had stopped me getting to the 3rd port by the end of turn 11 had come from the Finnish no attack line so it probably ended up being a relatively even outcome.

By the end of Turn 13, almost everything had been cleared in Leningrad and the north, enabling me to begin realigning infantry and panzers. In particular, the Finns moved east and south to form a defensive line, connecting with german infantry establishing a line down to Moscow where, in the end, I reluctantly broke off the main attack. The mud on Turn 12 had struck just when I had a gap to exploit and, using HQ Buildup, a large panzer corps ready to go. Oh well.

To the centre/south, and infantry are moving forward to establish a line from Orel, through Kursk to Kharkov while 1st Pz group assembles for one last drive to the south, aiming to take Rostov (which did indeed fall, at least prior to any response, on Turn 14). Stalino and its sister cities are also under threat and will be taken.

Far south, the Crimea remains a Soviet stronghold (see screenshot below). I am concerned: Rumanians are, bless them, digging in to hold it. But there's a very powerful force there, including cavalry.

So, now, we await the winter. There's still some operations to be done to the south, and the infantry will be digging furiously.

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In future, I will update with a 'where the advance stopped' graphic that, hopefully, doesn't reveal too much about my defences. I will then do more of a regular turn by turn as we head into the blizzard. On balance, with Leningrad taken, the Finns released and pushing east (admittedly somewhat luckily given the no-attack line issue), and strong infantry lines developing from the north down to Stalino and perhaps Rostov, I think I have done enough. Two things worry me:

first, the defensive line is a little far to the west for my liking, even though I have some major cities captured.

second, the Crimea will be a problem.

I have captured or killed around 2.2 million men (over 12000 AFVs and 37000 guns); this is 140 infantry divisions, 60+ mobile divisions (cav, mot, armour), as well as the usual assortment of regiments and brigades. The bloody cost for the Axis to achieve this result (as at start of 13) was 260,000, of whom 1/2 are disabled and so may return. 1600 precious tanks and 3000 guns have been lost. The air war is around 8000 to 1500. Fully 1/3 of German aircraft are flak losses.

Time will tell if I have enough ground and have done enough damage to survive.

[Tarhunnas]

Nice AAR! It will be interesting to follow further developments!

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you can see why I am worried about seaborne landings....

[Senno]

Awesome AAR. You are rolling right along.

My Romanian Armored was smacked hard by counter-attack also, hehe.

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I can't say too much since I am happy for my opponent to look in and see (and contribute). However, what is clear to both of us is that the northern successes have rendered AGN's area very controlled and AGS very unclear and fluid.

The front is stabilising now - Finns are moving east as far as they can; forming a line down from there just west of Moscow, through to the Donbas industrial heartland and to Rostov.

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Update:

we are now approaching the rainy season though, with random weather, one can never be too sure when it will arrive. Here is the update of where we got, at the beginning of October (Turn 16).

Firstly, northern sector -- not much in front but I am not going anywhere - in fact, scrambling to get the infantry into the line between the Finns (who are poised to take Cheropovets and then dig in for ever) and the top edge of AGC as we consolidate around Moscow.

I think I have done as well as I can here. I should have released some infantry sooner to get towards Yaroslavl.

Note, for opsec, I am just showing the front line

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Next, in low scale... from North of Moscow to jsut above Rostov: my line is in place, a small pocket to clean up:

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You are really moving, impressive!

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Thanks -- my opponent is pretty good, but first time playing the Russians (my first PBEM so quite equal I think, but I've been playing these games for 30+ years so some trace memory of War in Europe, and similar has helped).

The main reason for the northern success was my very strong opening in AGS which dragged too many forces into play defending it. As a result, I've done well in the north, moderately in the centre, but now have a major threat from the Crimea. Rostov has fallen but, because the line to the north is quite westerly, I doubt I will be able to hold it. IMO, the line needs to be north-south through Voroznevh to keep Rostov.

Not pushing for Moscow means I have got good force levels defending there - the low CV units are all out of the line now refitting and in the front have divisions with 80-90% TOE dug into Fort 3s. IF these get blown away, I am going to start accepting that the blizzard is too fierce. At the moment, I am assuming that the blizzard is realistic and game-balancing payback for the blitzkrieg advantage in June.

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Time to update progress towards the evil blizzard.

I am now well entrenched across the full length of my front, and we are currently in snow, late november. With random weather, I am taking no chances and now assume it will happen any week.

Given the heat and light about the blizzard, this game is a good test of the game's mechanics, because I've been consciously preparing for the blizzard (my first vs a person not the AI) since turn 1.

Screen shots to follow, showing key positions. The first, here, is of the most worrying problem - I am not in the Crimea: