Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
The south is just tougher this patch in general. The Germans are more mobile now than they used to be due to morale changes.

Even in a game where the Axis doesn't go all in in the south, they can do very well down there. PG1 + 1 panzer corps from AGC is more than enough to keep hustling you out of one position and another until they run out of gas.

There's no quick recovery from the Lvov opening. It's just a long, long delaying action.

Yeah, you're right pointing to the morale changes to have been a big deal in this respect. I'm still trying to come to grips with German motorized unit mobility. It hasn't yet registered in my head fully, I think. I've been planning and deploying based on my previous experience, and I've seen my flanks turned with frightening ease.

Actually this "shock" thing hasn't been a bad thing for my enjoyment of WiTE, suprisingly, quite on the contrary.

Regarding the delaying action: honestly, that was the plan from Turn 1. I'm still wondering how such a delaying can be implemented effectively against an opponent which has an awesome maneuver ability. I also wonder about what these morale changes will effectively mean in 42 - 43 games. We really need to reach that epoch.

What do you think about the ideas about reaction and interception rules, Flavio? Don't you think that with this increased mobility the phasing player needs some constraints to be put on his maneuvers? Mere positioning and current Reserve mode don't look to me enough to interfere with my opponent "future" moves in an effective way.

[TulliusDetritus]

Great pocket near Tula and isolation near Stalino [X(] I think you have to be 100% correct: you have bought one turn here MINIMUM, even perhaps two [:)]

You're giving lots of tips regarding the industry evacuation. And I need them!

[Flaviusx]

I'm getting decent results from use of reserves, myself. But it's definitely risky as the Soviet, as reserves can rout out of positions when you lose a fight. You're doubling down and hoping for the best.

The other thing I'm thinking of is abandoning ground support missions altogether in 1941. Save all your bombers for interdiction. GS just shows up in dribs and drabs and gets shot to pieces and has no apparent positive effect on ground combat for the Soviets, near as I can determine. Only later in 1942 does it start showing up in the kind of numbers needed to really make a difference. (And at that point you've got many more shturmoviks to play with.)

Interdiction, on the other hand, hits the Germans at their most dangerous spot: their mobility. You don't even need large numbers of bombers to do the missions. They just need to be fresh, available, and well escorted. Nor do the bombers need to be particularly good to get the job done, any old airframe will do. SB2s are completely fine in this role, for example.

[M60A3TTS]

Overall, you look to be in sound shape.  No major pockets, the lines while shredded on occasion are getting patched easily enough.  Stalino looked in danger given the thin cav screen, so it wasn't a particular surprise there that he marched through.  You should have an effective army come blizzard.  
 
 

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Great pocket near Tula and isolation near Stalino [X(] I think you have to be 100% correct: you have bought one turn here MINIMUM, even perhaps two [:)]

To be honest TD, I don't think I've bought even half a turn.

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
You're giving lots of tips regarding the industry evacuation. And I need them!

Glad to hear someone finds the discussion valuable. I've made some mistakes there, feel free to improve and discuss yourself on your AAR

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
Overall, you look to be in sound shape.  No major pockets, the lines while shredded on occasion are getting patched easily enough.  Stalino looked in danger given the thin cav screen, so it wasn't a particular surprise there that he marched through.  You should have an effective army come blizzard.  

I'm not so optimistic myself, M60. I don't think Q-Ball will do anything dumb, such as sticking to his stop line, especially if this one is as far to the East as Voronezh, Voroshilovgrad and Rostov. If I see the opportunity to harm him I will try, of course. If he plays smart the blizzard, I'll just rebuild the Red Army for the 1942 battles.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
I'm getting decent results from use of reserves, myself. But it's definitely risky as the Soviet, as reserves can rout out of positions when you lose a fight. You're doubling down and hoping for the best.

It's very dependent on commander's rating, or so it seems. Where I have good initiative commanders, a linear formation backed up with a "hedgehog" of units in reserve, does something. But man, those excursions the panzers take behind my lines, as far as 5 or 6 hexes or about 60 miles, raiding industry and flipping hex control are killing me.

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
The other thing I'm thinking of is abandoning ground support missions altogether in 1941. Save all your bombers for interdiction. GS just shows up in dribs and drabs and gets shot to pieces and has no apparent positive effect on ground combat for the Soviets, near as I can determine. Only later in 1942 does it start showing up in the kind of numbers needed to really make a difference. (And at that point you've got many more shturmoviks to play with.)


Interdiction, on the other hand, hits the Germans at their most dangerous spot: their mobility. You don't even need large numbers of bombers to do the missions. They just need to be fresh, available, and well escorted. Nor do the bombers need to be particularly good to get the job done, any old airframe will do. SB2s are completely fine in this role, for example.

More so with the increased effect of Interdiction with 1.05.28. Because with 1.05.23 their effects were very mild.

By the way, you didn't directly answer my question. I'll take that as "sort of" an answer.

Thank you for the advice, Flavio [:)]

[/quote]

[Ketza]

This is an amazing AAR. Thank you for your efforts!

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 12 – 4 September 1941

Yet another turn with furious fighting. The Axis attacks have costed the Red Army about 80,000 casualties while the hated invader has suffered about 25,000. That's not a bad ratio at all, though certainly not sustainable for the Red Army. Axis AFV losses are definitely going down, just 80 vehicles this turn. Regarding Axis effectiveness, out of the 79 battles initiated by Q-Ball he's won an 85% of them.

Action has concentrated around the Ilmen lake, where last turn retreat seems to have foiled somewhat Q-Ball prospects of a major encirclement, in the Sukhinichi area, where 3. PzGruppe has been relieved and in the Kursk region, where a major assault by 2. PzGruppe has almost disjointed Bryansk and Southwestern fronts lines.

Operational Situation Report

Q-Ball is definitely playing the isolation card, but the operational retreat I conducted here last turn seems to have thwarted to some extent German plans:

[center][/center]

I say to some extent, because since Q-Ball has refrained from getting 4. PzGruppe engaged in the task of clearing the vicinity of the Ilmen Lake. Looks to me he decided to conserve his armor for a big push, which will surely take place next turn. Northern and Northwestern fronts forces brace themselves in preparation for what definitely looks as a desperate struggle in the bogs and forests northwest to Tikhvin.

After the success I got with my Sukhinichi Counteroffensive, AGC infantry was tasked with the mission of taking Panzerwaffen nuts out of the fire. I'm a big fan of the infantry, and there's a good reason for it:

[center][/center]

the landsers have relieved his black clad kamerads, and have inflicted grievous losses on the 20th Army, which was deployed as a screen just east of Vyazma. The combats here have seen something positive, though, I got my first Guards Rifle Division... and two Guards Airbases. This must be due to those bogus kills being recorded for the VVS (see the thread I opened up on the Tech Support subforum, related to Cannonfodder's report).

2nd PzGruppe has finally rejoined and struck to the northeast in the general direction of Tula or Voronezh

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If I had already a reason to pull back the Bryansk front further east, I now got more reasons to do so. I need to cover both the southern route to Tula and the direct route to Voronezh. Guys, Q-Ball wants to score big in this game.

The cavalry raid I did just east of Stalino has paid off quite well, Q-Ball hasn't been able to do much here, and I'll lose just two Cavalry divisions

[center][/center]

This has been much cheaper than I expected. However, here I'm facing a harsh decision: do I retreat towards the Mius or should I stay. The problem about staying is that I just lack the troops to cover the Taganrog – Rostov axis, so getting the forces here encircled or badly flanked is quite a possibility.

I have very little info on the Axis plans for the Crimea. Air recon didn't tell me much, and I had to detail one Rifle Division from 51st Army – defending Sevastopol – to perform a “reconaissance in force” north of Simferopol:

[center][/center]

The sluggish pace of advance seems to be crying “Romanians”, and by looking at the infantry Q-Ball has southwest of Stalino, I'd say he's got in the Crimea one ArmeeKorps from 11. Armee. Sevastopol garrison is really strong, perhaps too strong. But such a concentration on one's rear can't be taken lightly.

Industry Evacuation

Railcap allowance remains stable at about 100k, which somewhat assuages my fears of not being able to move out very valuable stuff out of Moscow and Voronezh. This turn I have the following concerns regarding evacuation:

Rostov: 5 ARM, 4 HI
Voroshilovgrad: 3 ARM, 4 HI
Voronezh: 3 ARM, 30 IL-2, 23 IL-10 (future production), 3 HI
Tula: 8 ARM, 2 HI
Moscow: 20 ARM, 20 Vehicle, 30 IL-2, 30 Pe-2, 18 T-40 (upgrading to T-60 in October)

50% of IL-2 production is within direct reach of the Germans this turn in Voronezh. Moscow clearly needs to be defended at all costs, and I'm quite sure Q-Ball is aware of this. The T-40 factories are of strategic importance, I need them in a safer place, since T-60 light tanks will be composing nearly half of my tank strength during the rest of the year and 1942. Tula ARM points also need to go, it's just too juicy.

With a heavy heart, I implement the following directives for this turn:

[center]1. Evacuate 10 IL-2 points out of Voronezh (24,400 railcap points)
2. Evacuate 18 T-40 out of Moscow (6,480)
3. Evacuate 1 IL-10 points out of Voronezh (2,560)
4. Evacuate 8 ARM points out of Tula (48,000)[/center]

Leaving 22,135 for troop movement (and moving other stuff as I see fit).

Manpower & Armaments management

This has become a major section of the turn with latest changes, and I think it will be like this for the rest of the game. Keeping an eye on force levels has always been important, but now is critical for giving a competitive game.

Following the spirit of Flavio's recommendations, the STAVKA human resources department has decided to setup the following directive regarding TOE levels, to optimize the readiness status of the Red Army:

[center]1. Guards Rifle Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 100%
2. Cavalry Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 100%
3. Airborne Bdes will have TOE allowance set to 100%
3. Rifle Divisions with experience higher than 40 will have TOE allowance set to 90%
4. Other Rifle Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 80%
5. Rifle Brigades will have TOE allowance set to 75%
6. Artillery Units will have TOE allowance set to 75%
7. Tank Brigades, TOE allowance set to 100%, refit limited to a max of 3 brigades per turn. This number will be revised as AFV production grows.[/center]

Out of 254 Infantry units, only 36 have TOE below 51%, which is good news. Bad news is that armaments pool has gone down to 76,502 points (-75,000 last turn). This is extremely worrying.

Operations

We get ready for the showdown in the far North

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My money is on Q-Ball going directly for Svir to get finished with the Leningrad business. Note that he's left some infantry regiments holding Leningrad southern suburbs, and how he's massing the infantry to support the panzers. I would have already sent half 4. PzGruppe south to Moscow. This battle is an infantry battle, not one of maneuver.

I leave a substantial force to delay German infantry pushing towards Moscow between Rzhev and Vyazma

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the idea is to fall back to the fortified lines next turn, I need those forts UP now. Since Q-Ball fell back -slightly – with 3. PzGruppe, there isn't much point in attacking them. I think it's better to conserve our strength to fight off the more than sure push onto Moscow the next turn or the one after. I fall back here, along with Bryansk Front forces, setting up three lines of defense

[center][/center]

Most probably he'll probe, rather than go on an all out assault. About 12 Rifle Divisions are converging on Moscow areas as I write this.

2nd PzGruppe breakthrough had its flanks quite exposed, but it was a trap

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Q-Ball had a PzKorps in reserve to strike – and encircle – the left flank of a hypothetical counteroffensive (see the units circled in blue). I fall back again – three turns in a row now – towards Voronezh and the Don river. Southwestern Front divisions are really welcoming this break.

In four turns we've changed the Dnepr for the Don bends

[center][/center]

I give up on Stalino, I couldn't defend that position. Southern Front forces fall back along the Mius river, and regroup. I expect Q-Ball to go for Rostov, though he could well also go for Voroshilovgrad. Heavy fighting in this sector, let's see what does Q-Ball decide to do.

[M60A3TTS]

Still looks good.  In the north, if he beelines to the Svir, there's some depth he has to fight through first.  I don't see Leningrad at risk until at least turn 14, and his panzers have little prospect of pocketing any significant numbers of troops there.  Moscow looks to be a combination of infantry pressing in the center and the panzers trying to outflank the southern portion of the defensive line.  My guess is he'll try and push the panzers north of Tula and aim for Kolomna roughly.  In any case without a simultaneous hook from the north by his panzers, your defense is simplified a bit.  Voronezh area, he has time to get up there in time for the winter and he may try that.  Despite what you say about the panzers carving their way between Southwest and Bryansk Fronts, I'm not convinced he has enough oomph to do more than push units about and wonder if he would have been better off sending them elsewhere.  Southern Front, Voroshilovgrad would be no great loss since you have the Don to fall back on, but I'd make a fight of Rostov.  If you could hold that, Voroshilovgrad goes back to you in blizzard almost by default. 

[Flaviusx]

Wow, your armaments situation is not good.

For comparison's sake I've got 400k armaments in my game with Pelton as of turn 12, and just under 300k in my extremely bloody game with James also on turn 12.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
Still looks good.  In the north, if he beelines to the Svir, there's some depth he has to fight through first.  I don't see Leningrad at risk until at least turn 14, and his panzers have little prospect of pocketing any significant numbers of troops there.  Moscow looks to be a combination of infantry pressing in the center and the panzers trying to outflank the southern portion of the defensive line.  My guess is he'll try and push the panzers north of Tula and aim for Kolomna roughly.  In any case without a simultaneous hook from the north by his panzers, your defense is simplified a bit.  Voronezh area, he has time to get up there in time for the winter and he may try that.  Despite what you say about the panzers carving their way between Southwest and Bryansk Fronts, I'm not convinced he has enough oomph to do more than push units about and wonder if he would have been better off sending them elsewhere.  Southern Front, Voroshilovgrad would be no great loss since you have the Don to fall back on, but I'd make a fight of Rostov.  If you could hold that, Voroshilovgrad goes back to you in blizzard almost by default. 

Great analysis, M60 [:)] I must admit the dynamics of the campaign have affect my otherwise very offensive and positive mindset and outlook of the situation.

Certainly in the north, the prospects aren't too rosy for motorized units operations. As I said, if I were him I'd be keeping a PzKorps up there in the north to grab the opportunity of making a dash towards the Finnish frontier if one materializes. Sending the rest of 4th PzGruppe to Moscow, as you note, to complicate the defense there looks to me as a sound move.

I'm not reading 2. PzGruppe move as a crazy rush. I'm pretty sure it will go North, advancing along the Tula - Serpukhov axis, to bracket my southern flank. Note I've started to deploy substantial forces along the northern bank of the Oka, to stop him there. While the 2. PzGruppe advances to get into position, he can well deploy 3. PzGruppe further north. I'd place it somewhere between Rzhev and Vyazma. That wouldn't be a waste of time, on the contrary. I'm pretty sure 3. PzGruppe formations will welcome a couple turns behind the infantry, gathering up supply and replacements.

Alternatively, he can just throw 2. PzGruppe on top of Voronezh. It's the simpler option, in my opinion. However, such an operation would be done without the benefit of infantry support, which might create opportunities for me. On the other hand, that PzGruppe isn't nearly as battered as the 3rd, and has fight enough in it to attack Voronezh and turn north.

I don't know what to expect from 1. PzGruppe. He's really thin down there, though I still don't know how much troops he's got in the Crimea. Given the huge victory he's already got, conquering the Donbas so early, there's not much point into risking that unit too much. I'd wait for the infantry to join, and strike towards Rostov with a diversion to Voroshilovgrad. As you say, Voroshilovgrad is almost untenable come blizzard, but it would nonetheless distract my attention and pin half of the Southern Front.

Let's see. We're 6 turns away from the rasputitsa. I think he's got plenty of time to prepare his winter quarters, while using the PzGruppes to keep me off balance. I will be on the look for opportunities to cause trouble for him, but to be honest, he's got the ball and he doesn't look like dropping it anytime soon.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Wow, your armaments situation is not good.

For comparison's sake I've got 400k armaments in my game with Pelton as of turn 12, and just under 300k in my extremely bloody game with James also on turn 12.

Yes, it doesn't look good at all. Last turn I already evened out TOE's by setting max to 90% to all rifle formations. One thing I noticed with pleasure, is that most of the cadres arrived in the last three turns are in the TOE range between 40 and 50. So it's not surprising at all to see such a plunge, either, since those cadres were something like 20 Rifle Divisions. So my "depleted" statistic, # Units with TOE < 50 / # Units, has actually dropped substantially, from a 30% to a 20%.

You can see that I've implemented a quite radical policy regarding organization. This should have some observable effect in the statistics I'm keeping each turn (and overall force capability on the map).

Best news is that SW Front shape has been steadily improving, and many units have reached experience on the 40s. That might make a difference.

Another organizational policy I'm taking is that I'm putting under a few selected commands the few "professional" units I've got (experience > 50). Some of these are the Siberian divisions which have started to arrive, and the few surviving experienced units from STAVKA's first and second echelons. I plan to do something similar with cavalry and those tank brigades which can prove themselves, to become the backbone of the much expected Shock Armies.

[BletchleyGeek]

Just a quick update. I know what happened in Moscow - Q-Ball told to me over e-mail - but with all the excitement looks to me he forgot to press F12 before sending me turn.

I just wanted to let everybody know that I'm not surrendering [:D]

[Klydon]

Good. While a set back for you, it is certainly not the end of the game.

This has been a great AAR to read from both sides.

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 13 – 11 September 1941

This has been one of those turns one wonders whether it is worth or not to continue... Q-Ball struck where it hurts most, on the industry. This contrasts with the fact that this turn has been the one that has seen the least combat so far, 55 battles, 83% of them being wins for Q-Ball. Q-Ball's AFV losses are significantly up, by 151 breaking the trend I had been observing during the last two turns. This last turn I also applied Flavio's advice to max out Interdiction starving Ground Support missions

[center][/center]

with the hopes of generating many aerial interdictions. During turn 12 Q-Ball's phase I got just two Interdiction battles. With these settings during turn 13, I exactly got the same number: 2. It didn't work, and perhaps was even harmful. Interception though, has worked very well, but I think that the complete lack of CAS for my defending units helps to understand my opponent most spectacular success to date. Let's review the operational situation, which is very interesting.

Operational Situation Report

Seems that the discussion M60 and I had was right on spot:

[center][/center]

looks to me that Q-Ball has deceived me into thinking he was after Leningrad by isolating it. He just pushed me away from the Volkhov river and then turned the bulk of his infantry west, assaulting the Achilles Heel hex. The attack he launched fail, but achieved something crucial, to reduce the fort level there from 3 to 2. Besides that, I see that one PzKorps is now in transit to somewhere else: there's just one of the 4. PzArmee Korps here. This is very worrying.

My plans for the defense of Moscow has just gone down the toilet:

[center][/center]

a very depressing sight, indeed. I have a MAJOR problem here. Q-Ball changed his axis of advance dramatically, catching my forces flatfooted. Let's Q-Ball himself explain to us the maneuver:

When you open the turn, you'll see why it took so long.  I really had to think about this one hard.  I managed to punch a hole in your lines north of Vyazma, and moved Panzers into it (the ones down by Tula; you moved all the industry, so I moved.  The HQ there had built-up previously).  I did about 100 recon missions up there to be sure, and saw you had a division in one hex of Moscow, but nothing else between my lead Panzers and Moscow after I blew away a couple fort units.  I carefully calculated I had enough MPs to get there, but not enough to get back to safety.  I had enough left in the other Panzers to form a thin line to Moscow, but that would risk 3 to 4 units.  So while I had my lead unit hanging NW of Moscow, with what appeared to be a clear path, decision to make:  Forward, or back?
 
I slept on it, and decided on a suicide run.  After I did it I realized I could have taken out 2 hexes of Moscow, I had the MPs, but I couldn't be 100% sure of your dispositions.  The German Recon is very good, and you can learn alot without flying so many missions, much better than Soviets, but not 100%.  After I did it, I'm not sure it's worth it, because 12th Panzer is one of my highest-morale units (which is why it made it that far of course)
 
So, 12th Panzer rolled into the Kremiln, but I am pretty sure they will die there......

It's unusual than one gets his AAR so nicely complemented by his opponent's comments. I don't think I can add anything of value to Q-Ball explanation, other than making a rather hollow sounding promise of making Q-Ball pay a hefty price for this vandalism. Besides raiding the industry (killing quite a few vehicle and armaments factories) he also cut a few critical rail lines.

2nd PzArmee has found a good target, Voronezh:

[center][/center]

he broke through my lines, and crushed Southwestern Front 6th Army. The road to Voronezh is far from being open (I had reserves here) and the plan is to pin the spearhead launching attacks on the flanking PzDivs.

The picture in the Don Bend is startingly similar to that in Voronezh

[center][/center]

seems to me that Q-Ball didn't get very creative south of Moscow. Actually, he does't need to be creative nor subtle. It's enough to wield his PzArmees as a club and break my skull. Again, his advance here is somewhat lacking (though infantry is close) and I will counterattack as well.

The situation in the Crimea is also interesting

[center][/center]

seems that Q-Ball has decided to bypass Sevastopol and go straight for the Kerch straits. As I note on the map, that fort will be getting to level 2 before Q-Ball has chance for a deliberate attack. The 51st Army on Sevastopol is going to rile a bit the Romanians approaching the city. All of a sudden the pleasant walk they have had across Southern Ukraine gentle plains will become extremely interesting.

Factory Evacuation

As I mentioned in the previous AAR issue, this turn I meant to evacuate Moscow. Well, it seems I won't be able to unless I dislodge that German division out of that hex. I don't really have anything that needs urgently to be moved, so I will delay the decision for the end of the turn.

Manpower & Armaments Management

Manpower pool is up by 2,000 men and armaments decline has substantially reduced, I'm now at 46,250, 30,000 less than last turn. Right now I have 320 Armaments factories, Q-Ball smoked the others, and out of these 320, 51 are damaged and not producing. That leaves me with 269 active factories, which means about 30,000 armament points per turn. This is producing a severe shortage of armament points.

How well has worked the policy I enacted last turn? Not too bad. The decline has been noticeably slowed, but not enough. Regarding the status of units, the Red Army now lists 267 infantry units in its OOB, and just about 40 of them are below 50%. This means that the metric hasn't really improved at all, it's just being kept under control. I'm adjusting the policy as follows:

1. Guards Rifle Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 100%.
2. Cavalry Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 100%
3. Airborne Bdes will have TOE allowance set to 100%
4. Rifle Divisions with experience higher than 40 will have TOE allowance set to 90%
5. Other Rifle Divisions will have TOE allowance set to 80%
6. Rifle Brigades will have TOE allowance set to 75%
7. Artillery Units will have TOE allowance set to 50%
8. Tank Brigades, TOE allowance set to 100%, refit limited to a max of 3 brigades per turn. This number will be revised as AFV production grows.

I see that tank brigades arriving as reinforcement are set to Refit automatically, this is somewhat slowing down getting ready the Tank Brigades up to operational status.

Operations

I must admit I'm very frustrated by the inability of launching any kind of offensive operation on the Volkhov. I can't put together enough CV even to aspire reaching 1:1 odds... most of the units there are really weak, and I'm not too keen on attacking random German units just for the sake of it. How long can resist the troops at Leningrad? Not much longer, in two turns they will be isolated if Q-Ball manages to dislodge me from that critical hex this turn.

I focus on isolating the PanzerDivision in Moscow, which deprives my frontline from badly needed reinforcements and I block as well as I can the most likely routes if Q-Ball attempts to relieve it:

[center][/center]

I'm not too optimistic about destroying it next turn. Q-Ball will try to keep that unit alive for as long as possible, and heavy urban hexes, while bad for AFVs are very good for the 10,000 accompanying those tanks. Two counterattacks have been launched on the 3rd PzArmee spearhead, one manages to repeal 19th PzDivision and the other is a bloody failure.

The second hotspot is Voronezh, where I launch two counterstrokes against the two PzDivision in the vanguard of 2nd PzArmee

[center][/center]

I realize that these divisions are really light on AFVs, almost to the point that these are PzDivision just in name:

[center][/center]

Note that after doing the counterattacks I've pulled back, since both Bryansk and Southwestern Fronts lines had become flanked.

The Southern Front holds fast on the Don Bend

[center][/center]

Certainly 1st PzArmee can break through, but I expect that to be quite costly. These leading PanzerDivision seem to me as being nearly depleted

[center][/center]

and 16th Army really puts the hurt on 13th PzDiv. The final odds are telling, and the VVS fighter aviation really appears on the skies in strength.

Let's take a birds eye view of the front, since things have been very fluid the last three turns:

[center][/center]

Things do not look well. It's very likely that Moscow will fall, I just hope I'll be able to evacuate the industry still there. Voronezh, Voroshilovgrad and Rostov are also likely to go. And Leningrad... well, I don't think I'll hold the city for much longer.

Factory Evacuation (made my mind up)

I recover part of the list I made last turn

Rostov: 5 ARM evacuated
Voroshilovgrad: 3 ARM evacuated
Voronezh: 3 ARM evacuated
Kalinin: 2 ARM evacuated

That's 13 ARM points, or 78,000 railcap points. This turn I've spent quite a bit, and very much as several other critical “materials” it seems to be going down really fast.

Conclusions

The move by 3. PzArmee wants me to cheer and cry out loud “TOUCHDOWN!”. Maybe he'll lose the PanzerDivision, but he's just sent to hell my defense plans and hit hard my industrial capability. Opinions on how good the move has been will vary, of course. This is the kind of thing which would have had a real-life German commander fired, and possibly court martialed. Not even Rommel would have got away from the righteous ire of the Generalstab. But it certainly has achieved some strategic effect (and operational, though those are more subtle).

We really need reaction moves. That, or I really need to form up some Bear Cavalry

[center][/center]

to unleash it on unsuspecting Germans.

[TulliusDetritus]

The funny thing is Q-Ball was once on the receiving end [:D] Tarhunnas did EXACTLY the same to him! A suicide charge lead by a motorized SS Div if I remember correctly trashed his industry in Moscow. I know what I think about such moves but hey, I'm no one to judge another player [8D]

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
The funny thing is Q-Ball was once on the receiving end [:D] Tarhunnas did EXACTLY the same to him! A suicide charge lead by a motorized SS Div if I remember correctly trashed his industry in Moscow. I know what I think about such moves but hey, I'm no one to judge another player [8D]

It's gambling. And it looks crazy. We don't have Uncle Joe making us to hold fast every inch of Soviet soil from Lvov to Stalingrad. The Axis don't have the General Staff (which is sometimes good and sometimes bad). Pretty sure some guys in Q-Ball staff just got their monocles fall from their left eye [:)]

[CarnageINC]

BG I must say that the more I read your AAR that this is the best in-depth AAR out there. If my AAR's are the cheap gossip tabloids, this is the NY Times in comparison. [:D] You have put a lot of effort and thought into this one I think all who follow this one appreciate the effort you put into it. [;)]

I'm not a big fan of the 'suicide' raids, Q-Ball's was a good one but IMO, and this is just me, I think throwing away a unit for such a purpose is wasteful and gamey. Of course I'm looking at this from a more realistic reasoning and not a 'game' one. I guess its how some people want to play the game, to each their own I guess. [8D]

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
I realize that these divisions are really light on AFVs, almost to the point that these are PzDivision just in name:

Kind of early for this to happen, but he has pushed them hard, so perhaps what one should expect. Historically the Germans of course pushed hard as well, especially in Typhoon towards Moscow, and by then many German divisions were divisions only by name indeed -- not only due to lack of Panzers and AGs, but also men-material wise.
The latter is not obvious, here, as in other AARs, though. Probably that Flavius sensed that correctly, but future will show. Also, Q-Balls INF has spend much time trailing behind, not participating much in combat, so losses might be lower -- but on the other hand, wasn't that also exactly what the INF did historically, and still got bled? Or were the Germans Panzers in fact not as fast and far ahead at their time as in this AAR? Something is clearly different, but what? Would be worth a very close look at the books to understand that correctly.

I still agree with the need for some reaction orders (blocking and counterattack) for idle units. Sort of a certain chance based on leader values of the units and higher HQ, its remaining MP and combat readiness, as well as the enemy detection or speed or so, to either move into the advance path of the unit entering its ZOC, or alternatively, order it to counterattack there. That way the issue with the long statc 7-day turns would be mitigated, the ZOC rule would gain more sense by that (I believe Lava also has some good points there), the openings like Lvov or Minsk might be slowed a bit to more realistic pace and appear more plausible (without having to neuter the former entirely, and with some tough fighting as historically seen there, a tiny chance to keep open communications for the Soviets for another turn, though unlikely if another Panzerkorps would be dispatched south), and ultimately the German defense will also strongly profit from them in 1944/45.
The lack of such reaction order presently seems in stark contrast to the neat "Reserve Commitment" in battles. Ironically, it kind of seems like the higher Commands think "Yeah, battle, let's send the division to assist!" but "ah, there is a Russian Cavalry division (or German Mech, whatever) sneaking around in our rear -- ah, who cares, get the BBQ table ready for the boys and have them feast for a week!".

Regarding Q-Balls raid... very bold, and perhaps even brilliant game terms! And as long as you consider it just a game, equally valid as everything else the game allows. But of course that would have been very unlikely to have happened intentionally in reality.