Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

[JAMiAM]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
If he doesn't... well, these bulges do really look nice on the map, right? [:D]

To paraphrase someone's signature line, real men go to war with real bulges...in their lines...[;)]

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
If he doesn't... well, these bulges do really look nice on the map, right? [:D]

To paraphrase someone's signature line, real men go to war with real bulges...in their lines...[;)]

Now that you mention it... I've got a wart on my right hand which doesn't want to go away [:'(]

[Peltonx]

Nice AAR. Only 75,000 new troops?

I know you screwed up with Moscow (1/2)

How many arm pts did you lose?

Again very nice AAR sorry I have not taken the time to read it in the past. I have learnt a few things alrdy.

Good game you two have going, very even.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Nice AAR. Only 75,000 new troops?

More or less. It fluctuates depending on how many ARM points are produced by turn (this depends on the chances due to damage and supply/resource shortages).

By turn, the data series is:

Turn 15: 91,000 (this turn I exhausted ARM pool)
Turn 16: 60,000
Turn 17: 60,000
Turn 18: 59,000
Turn 19: 69,000
Turn 20: 68,000
Turn 21: 65,000
Turn 22: 98,000
Turn 23: 98,000
Turn 24: 84,000
Turn 25: 68,000
Turn 26: 70,000

Note this are the numbers for manpower used into building new ground elements (or replacing losses in damaged ground elements in the pool). I get it by comparing the Manpower input and the change in the Manpower pool.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
I know you screwed up with Moscow (1/2)

That did me a lot of damage, especially to plane production. I lost two full IL-2 plants. And those are winner planes.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
How many arm pts did you lose?

In general it's been like this:

Railcap -81 (-27.5%)
Manpower -1259 (-33.45%)
Vehicle -32 (-23%)
HI -81 (-34%)
Resources -45 (-23%)
Armaments -54 (-15%)

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Again very nice AAR sorry I have not taken the time to read it in the past. I have learnt a few things alrdy.

Thank you for reading Pelton. [:)]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Good game you two have going, very even.

Yes, I think the two of us are enjoying it, though now Q-Ball is the one feeling some pain.

[Peltonx]

54 basicly historical.
Manpower is more because of Moscow.
HVY and Resourse dont mean much.

Troop numbers are much lower then pre 1.05 pre turn.

I really need to get out more and read Red AAR's.

Thanks, information is good even when it doesn't support ones position.

Good luck during blizzard.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 26 – 11 December 1941

Second blizzard turn. Q-Ball has done two counterattacks, concentrating overwhelming force, on some the forces I used to “exploit” the “breakthroughs” I achieved last turn (notice the double quotes). Checking the changes in the losses between turns Q-Ball has lost to blizzard approximately 46,000 casualties so far. Which is really low.

Operational Situation Report

On the far north, the left flank of 18. Armee is running west as if chased by the devil himself

[center][/center]

Note how the 18. Armee right flank is holding the line just east of Vishny. Time for the 41st and 22nd Armies here to focus on one concrete target: to pin these forces. Reviewing the state of the units here I came across the sorry 27th Army's 183rd Rifle Division:

[center][/center]

Note the morale of this division and the difference of the Supply/Need numbers. When I say that 1.05 changes the game in a fundamental way, I'm not joking. This division was routed on the first Snow turn, but still, I'm impressed and not in a good way.

Q-Ball withdrew his PanzerDivisions from Torzhok. I was obviously wrong estimating the MP's for the division in Torzhok

[center][/center]

with this initial objective achieved, it's time to move quickly and breach those forts to the west before he can build them up (they're ranging from 30 to 50%). Q-Ball is also retreating just in front of Moscow

[center][/center]

He's left the paras to hold me up while the rest of his forces retreat to what I suspect is his secondary fort line. I say “suspect” because I'm working from memory basically and because VVS recon pilots seem to have become extremely scarce all of a sudden. For whatever reason I can't fly more than 10 or 12 recon flights across the whole front. Now the RKKA feels like a blind man moving on the blizzard.

While he's ceded some terrain northeast of Yelets – I guess the Russian CV there was intimidating – he's mostly holding fast as well in the Tula – Yelets area

[center][/center]

He's not weakening his deployment around Tula. I really need to get 2nd Shock Army into action quickly, otherwise things might get a bit rotten for the northern part of the Tula – Yelets operation.

It didn't make much sense to me that Q-Ball held to the Tikhnaya Sosna, and he shared my opinion as well. He's retreated in the general direction of Valyuki, which sort of speeds up the proceedings for the Rossoh – Valyuki operation

[center][/center]

North of Voroshilovgrad the newly formed 57th Army is about to arrive to his position in the line and join the offensive operations in the area. After last turn attacks on the flanks of the German forces in the Donbass, Q-Ball has decided to not take any chances and retreat to the west:

[center][/center]

Note how one of the Gebirgsjäger divisions has shifted to the north, to block the path of my forces around Voroshilovgrad. Damn.

The only mistake that Q-Ball has made this turn has been this one in the Crimea. Seems that Sponek wasn't in charge this time

[center][/center]

and when I say mistake I mean “as in forgotting to move those two divisions”. I offered him a redo but he declined. The funny part in this whole business is that I was struggling to get into position an Airborne Brigade to achieve the same result: two German divisions isolated.

The rest of the Axis forces in the Peninsula are racing towards the forts at Perekop. Game over if so?

Logistics & Organization

The flow of new ground elements remains steady: 80,000 guys have been formed into 14,713 ground elements. I checked the numbers and I see that I've built 4,793 14.5mm ATR squads and 1,384 SMG squads. Looking for a reason for this on the Commander's Report I see that all Tank Brigades were set to Refit. Looks to me that I forgot to do something before finishing last turn as well...

Operations

Very heavy fighting this turn. I really tried to push hard my troops this turn, so perhaps next turn I will have to take it easier. I insisted in attacking certain hexes I shouldn't perhaps. I did 37 attacks of which 25 were successful, exactly the same as last turn. Exchange loss ratio has been 3.5:1, 20,000 Axis battle permanent losses vs about 75,000 (about 35,000 KIA) Soviet battle permanent losses. Barely sustainable and a lesson to keep in mind regarding “trying my luck”. Let's review how things have ended after my moves and assaults.

The Torzhok – Rzhev operation has made progress, but it's been very expensive. Q-Ball secondary defense line has been breached at several places

[center][/center]

but in the process 11th , 8th and 24th Armies have suffered very high losses. Several divisions are now unready. An interesting opportunity to separate German forces here from those fighting in front of Moscow has appeared near Staritsa (area marked with an oval). 54th Army will try to capitalize that, though there's a tough 3=18 German infantry division blocking movement.

On Moscow I've struggled to rotate depleted divisions while keeping the pressure and moving west. Have you ever tried to solve this puzzle?

[center][/center]

Well, attacking with the Soviets really gets like it in cramped quarters

[center][/center]

WitE stacking rules were one of the first (and most) criticized aspect of the game. Then, and now, I think it was a very clever way to model what other games model with traffic jams when too many units move across a certain hex. You really need to think what you move, and where. It's easy to waste a substantial number of MP's if units are tossed around carelessly.

Going back to the topic, I'm surprised that Q-Ball isn't fighting harder for these positions. I guess his real line lies at some point between Mozhaysk and Vyazma. This abysmal performance of VVS recon is really dangerous. Best news has been the victory on the south edge of the picture. That opens up the route towards Kaluga.

The main show has achieved one of its objectives, Yelets. Which was defended by 12th PanzerDivision – the guys who raided Moscow:

[center][/center]

falling to a combined arms hasty attack. These guys must be really green. This almost feels like a German summer attack. 99th Tank Brigade commander had Lenin's mummy – which had been vandalized and now is properly restored – with him in his tank. As the Spanish El Cid, Lenin wins battle even after dead!

[center][/center]

Now I have 2nd and 1st Shock Armies operating on Tula flanks. The southern flank is about to be breached, the northern one needs some more work. Let's see what does Q-Ball do. The PzDivs in Tula are needed in the flank, so perhaps I'll be forcing his hand and having him to abandon the city and have those panzertruppen to spend a really miserable time in the snow facing one of the strongest Soviet Armies in the field.

The Rossoh – Valyuki has mostly consisted in chasing the Axis forces here punctuated by some attacks. Particularly has been the repulse of one of my Cavalry Corps by that Romanian Mountain Brigade

[center][/center]

just west of Ostrozhsk. To the south, along the Starobelsk – Svetevo Axis, the newly arrived 57th Army has made a magnificient entry, supported by some units of Southern Front 16th Army:

[center][/center]

that is turning northwest to steer away from the Gebirgsjäger division. Actually, Southern Front has now to stretch out a bit in the middle, and try to pin the forces directly in front of Stalino. Meanwhile 16th in the north and 29th in the south will continue the flanking maneuver. I think I've already made my mind about where to commit 3rd and 4th Shock Armies.

In the Crimea we got our very first Operation Kolt'so of the war, centered on the ancient city of Feodosiya

[center][/center]

Soft factors show supply status, which is in a very worrying green-orange hue already, and after minimal combat. I'm really wanting to hit those units running away. I've attached two RR brigades to 51st Army – the one running from Sevastopol towards Perekop. I don't know if ports work as supply network source nodes, so I can repair rail from the port itself (I think not, but it doesn't hurt to try).

Overall it's been a turn which has left me mixed emotions. On the one hand, I think that the operations are being successful. On the other hand, I got careless and wasted quite a few good men and equipment. Being things so tight as they're, I shouldn't be throwing away my forces so liberally.

[BletchleyGeek]

The influence of the 1:1 rule

Now answering janh's question: how much of the Soviet success is due to the 1:1 rule? Here you have the data for this Turn

[center][/center]

So 6 victories out of 25 (about a 25%). Is that significative? Quantitatively it is, but qualitatively it's a much harder question to answer. Looking at the battle themselves, all but one, happened out of the scope of the operations I planned in Turn 23.

So I'd say, maybe yes, maybe not. Also apparent on this data is the effect of Blizzard on the Germans while in combat. It's BAD. Even in the failures (data not shown), most Axis units seem to get their initial CV halved right away (blizzard penalties hitting). Also interesting to note is that Initial CV reductions for the Soviets correlate quite well with actual losses. However, this is not true for the Germans. They ALWAYS get less losses compared with the reduction in CV (due to fire & maneuver being simulated during Tactical Combat). Unless something really lewd happens to the Germans such as being pounded by a few Rocket Regiments - see the battle at Hex 112,66, 3 Soviet divisions and 8 SU's against one single German division.

[janh]

Hmmh, interesting. This kind of information could be useful for the testers and devs, but you are probably right -- a single statistic event, i.e. a single turn of a single AAR can always be an exception. My feel would be bumping up the Soviet base moral a tid bid, and saying bye to the 2:1 rule -- yet only if this statistic remained for the entire winter phase so good.  I understand its value as an additional parameter to affect a tipping point for the initiative, and tool to up the Soviet offensive value in the early months, but it seems unnatural like the static part of the igougo, or some of the weaker panzer raids. Even out of a total of 37 attacks only 19 were successful, instead of 25, the Soviets appear to do quite well given how abysmal they are compared to what they will look like in 43 or 44. Yet the blizzard has still quite a few turns, and your fighting power might dwindle, requiring 2:1 to keep up offensive spirit for a few more turns...

Yip, your air recon, or rather your present lack thereof, may get you in trouble.  Seems like blizzard isn't exactly the weather condition for large-scale, well-controlled and coordinated offensives and an excellent overview of the battlefield.  More like four wrestlers going after at each other in the dark, soon not knowing which direction the home corner is, or where the supporting partner is and what he is doing... just tossing big strategy out of the window and fighting it out brute force. Suppose that's not so different from what the winter 41 must have looked like to both sides at the front.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: janh

Hmmh, interesting. This kind of information could be useful for the testers and devs, but you are probably right -- a single statistic event, i.e. a single turn of a single AAR can always be an exception. My feel would be bumping up the Soviet base moral a tid bid, and saying bye to the 2:1 rule -- yet only if this statistic remained for the entire winter phase so good.  I understand its value as an additional parameter to affect a tipping point for the initiative, and tool to up the Soviet offensive value in the early months, but it seems unnatural like the static part of the igougo, or some of the weaker panzer raids. Even out of a total of 37 attacks only 19 were successful, instead of 25, the Soviets appear to do quite well given how abysmal they are compared to what they will look like in 43 or 44. Yet the blizzard has still quite a few turns, and your fighting power might dwindle, requiring 2:1 to keep up offensive spirit for a few more turns...

I hope this results interesting for players as well. The tactical combat system is little understood and pinning it down in tables like this makes easier to discuss it (I think).

I don't know if I can compromise myself to track this every turn, turns are taking me long enough already. But would be a good thing, once blizzard is gone and I have more time, to get more data on this. Note that I try to adjust initial odds as best as I can, mediated by FOW (CV values of enemy units with low DL can be extremely misleading).

[PeeDeeAitch]

I would not underestimate the psychology of the game on the player attacking too. Just as the blizzard can unnerve the Germans (and make him, as you said BG, do foolish things), knowing the 1:1-2:1 rule can improve the psyche of the Soviets and they will attack (even if a majority of the attacks don't need this). Something to think about - the mindset of the player making the turn can have huge results.

In the past I wrote about 'getting the skeer (scare)' on one's opponent, and it is factors such as this that allows it to happen.

Good job, BG.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch
I would not underestimate the psychology of the game on the player attacking too. Just as the blizzard can unnerve the Germans (and make him, as you said BG, do foolish things), knowing the 1:1-2:1 rule can improve the psyche of the Soviets and they will attack (even if a majority of the attacks don't need this). Something to think about - the mindset of the player making the turn can have huge results.

In the past I wrote about 'getting the skeer (scare)' on one's opponent, and it is factors such as this that allows it to happen.

We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch
Good job, BG.

Thank you PDH

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 27 – 18 December 1941

One more turn in the Blizzard drama. Q-Ball has counterattacked in various spots with mixed success: 5 attacks, 2 held and 3 routs. He's stung me though, one of the routs was a Cavalry Corps which was very important for my plans in the south. Let's review the situation.

Operational Situation Report

18th Armee is holding east of Vishny:

[center][/center]

the Axis can't really give away these positions without risking the flank of the forces fighting along the Torzhok – Rzhev axis. I've brought here three stout Rifle Divisions to apply some pressure and make him feel his position is untenable (which isn't, actually I think it's quite solid).

Q-Ball saw the rather fishy situation that was arising around Staritsa and has deployed there a PanzerDivision

[center][/center]

and counterattacked the Tank Brigade which was “exploiting”. At least I'm forcing him to attack me, and the weak Tank Brigades are too tempting a target for such an offensively minded player as Q-Ball.

Northwestern Front forces are quite ragged right now. Attacks are limited by the number of units unready – about one third of the force – and the intervening space between his forces and mine. A pattern in Q-Ball tactics has emerged. Note the two divisions he's left to prevent me establishing contact with his HKL. This poses a significant challenge: I have to balance out the number of units involved in dislodging those forces with the need of moving forward with the most force. If I commit too little to the attack I'm exposed to failure – more wasted MP's – and high losses.

Not a step back in front of Moscow, looks to me that Q-Ball feels his position to be securely anchored on the SS Totenkopf division



which is quite strong, indeed. Time to put the hurt on these elite guys. I'll be stacking Arty and good leaders here.

Very good news for the Tula – Yelets operation. Q-Ball has decided to abandon Tula after having his positions flanked by the advance of 1st and 2nd Shock Armies

[center][/center]

I don't if by accident or purpose, he's falling back towards the next objective of 2nd Shock Army, the rail hub at Gorbachevo. I need to break the back of his forces on the Yelets – Gorbachevo sector let's see if the Bryansk Front and Eremenko's 31st Army have enough “oomph” for that.

As expected, the developments to the north have made Q-Ball to consider his position on the Don river to be untenable:

[center][/center]

I need to think this better, since I don't want to distract too much from my original operations, but pushing towards Krastornoe along the rail line and Stary Oskol – no rail line here – are certainly very interesting. A push all the way to Kursk or Kharkov is an unreal proposition, unless things to the north further deteriorate.

What seemed a secondary operation – the Rossoh – Valyuki one – which was deemed to be a hard slog forward is taking momentum:

[center][/center]

Pushing towards the Oskol, and the cities of Stary Oskol and Novy Oskol seems as the best way, although that axis is a logistic black hole. On the other hand, the best option in the south is to push towards Nizhvaya Duvanka – Dvuerachovo. Valyuki is really important, it sits on the most important rail lines in the area.

The battle lines for January are taking form in the south. Q-Ball really wants to keep me away from his defenses on the Mius. One of the Gebirgsjäger divisions has involved itself quite heavily in pushing back my vanguard in the area of Mateev Kurgan

[center][/center]

A setback indeed. But the more I force Q-Ball to counterattack, the better.

The situation in the Crimea is becoming quite clear

[center][/center]

major battles will be fought on the Perekop isthmus during January, as far as the supply situation allows. Soft factors shown are Supply status. 51st Army (advancing north from Sevastopol) situation is not that bad yet, due to the stores in the HQ (which shows now orange supply status). I need to pump supplies here, and the only option seems to be air supply (which will be very limited). At least the transport aviation I brought here will do something after all.

Logistics & Organization

This turn arrive 3rd and 4th Shock Armies. There's still some time to change the decision, but these armies will be committed on the Stalino front, waiting for the Transcaucasus Front to become unfrozen (and with excellent morale and experience units, by the way).

My replacement system is getting swamped by the Rifle formations – either rebuilt ones or new brigades. The same priorization I've been doing on Tank Brigades is necessary here. In the last four turns a total of 81 new Rifle formations have arrived (that's a 20% of the overall RKKA rifle formations in the OOB). So you can compare, between turns 20 and 23 I received just 42.

Regarding the influx of new men into the Red Army, this turn I got 79,000 fresh recruits.

Operations

This turn I've made the same number of attacks as in Turn 27, and got about the same level of success: 24 out of 29. The casualty ratio, excluding the two divisions at Feodosiya, is worsening and I don't like it at all: 15,000 Axis casualties vs. 60,000 Soviet casualties, a 4:1 in favor of the Axis. Those ghosts haunting my place aren't going to vanish, if anything, they're becoming legion

While the attrition battle rages at the strategic level, at the operational level I'm quite happy. This turn I'm forcing Q-Ball hand in the north in a nice way:

[center][/center]

15th Infantry Division landsers are getting a free ride on the excellent Soviet railroads to the lands beyond the Urals if Q-Ball doesn't retreat them. His line is broken, though in an actually awkward place.

I think I see the German defenses in front of Moscow faltering, though I'm seeing a second line of level 3 forts behind the one I breached last turn

[center][/center]

or perhaps it's not faltering and I'm just seeing what I want to see. German CV's here are indeed going down pretty fast in this area... I'd like to have these guys to keep their heads down before January arrives and some of the blizzard penalties are lifted.

The Tula – Yelets operation has achieved its immediate targets and it's not losing steam any time soon. Both Shock Armies are honoring its title and the shock waves create ripples on German lines

[center][/center]

Rather than going after the PzDiv standing in the middle of the Red Tide I've decided to ignore it and keep 1st Shock Army eyes on the prize: Gorbachevo and beyond. Eremenko's 31st Army is indeed losing a bit its steam, but the Germans in front of them are pretty ragged already. I wouldn't be surprised that Q-Ball pulls back hard towards Orel. They can run all they want to, but sooner or later, the pain train is going to arrive at the station, guys.

The Rossoh – Valyuki operation is likely to finish before the New Year, 5th Army is at the gates of the town, and prepared to knock hard on its doors

[center][/center]

Not much going on here, besides the roughing up of the Romanians to the north of Valyuki and inviting that Das Reich people to attack my troops.

And on the Stalino Front, not much to report either

[center][/center]

Southern Front is hugging the German units here again. Rocky just needs to take another round of pounding before he gets the striking power. And to the southwest, once the Feodosiya affair has been resolved, the nice little walk up to the Perekop isthmus continue.

[center][/center]

With luck I will be able to strike there by mid January, too late to achieve anything significant.

More Combat Analysis

Janh and PDH feedback have encouraged me to keep collecting the data on the combats (and to add the data from Turn 25, as well).

I've posted the statistics on this link, since taking screenshots isn't really functional. In general, janh comments were spot on: victories due to the 1:1 rule rise as the Red Army weakens, or I'm forced to try my luck when exploiting a narrow breakthrough.

What I wonder is the following: if there was no 1:1 rule, there wouldn't be Axis bonus to defensive fire either. What does this means in terms of final modified CV? A more severe reduction for the Axis and a milder reduction for the Soviets? Tactical combat has a lot of variance built into it. But I think it's reasonable to apply a constant multiplier to Axis and Soviet final modified CV's.

One thing I've pondering for long is that perhaps the 1:1 rule, besides not being necessary, was actually harmful for the Soviets (increased losses, victories that become defeats, etc.). Somebody (Helpless?) can give a hint on what multipliers should I look into?

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek


We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.

Loks like you need to do fewer real attacks and more meta ones.

Good AAR.

[Peltonx]

How many Germans did General Winter kill for you?

Also General winter is lower his moral 16 pt? 1 pt a turn right?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek


We have had an example of this "skeer" this turn. I was skeer'd that Q-Ball was moving out of my reach too soon. So I pressed harder and didn't assess initial odds as realistically as I usually do. The "I'm going to be lucky" button only works for Google.

Loks like you need to do fewer real attacks and more meta ones.

Good AAR.

I'm starting to feel the same, to be honest.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

How many Germans did General Winter kill for you?

Also General winter is lower his moral 16 pt? 1 pt a turn right?

Not many, I've yet to check the numbers, but I'd say less than 100,000.

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 28 – 25 December 1941

Happy Xmas everyone! Q-Ball is retreating in the wake of the assaults I made last turn on the Torzhok – Rzhev and Tula – Orel axis. However, the overall situation is just plain bad. Many units need rest & refit, and some parts of the front need some serious reorganization. He's still counterattacking where he doesn't see himself risking too much.

Operational Situation Report

He's pulling back and making his line more efficient:

[center][/center]

while I see him steady on the Torzhok – Rzhev direction – CV's haven't dropped to a joke there even with the very low forts there – in the sector of Firovo I see an opportunity for unhinging the 18 and 16. Armees. In this screenshot also becomes apparent how much does VVS recon suck. I don't think he's deliberately left a gap in his line.

Another operational retreat is executed in front of Moscow

[center][/center]

He's got quite an strongpoint in the area marked. The idea is to push for Kaluga flanking that. Let's see if the units here are up to the task. One major hurdle is the Totenkopf SS Division. That will be a very tough nut to crack. Note how I'm detaching Rifle Brigades from frontline armies and deploying them to prepare the battle lines for 1942. They have crap Construction Value unless concentrated, but leaving the units deployed like that helps me to remember what I need to fortify.

Same story in the Tula – Yelets sector of the front

[center][/center]

Now 1st Shock Army is facing two PanzerDivisions. I think this time I'll take the gauntlet: redeploying 1st Shock Army will delay me too much I think. And to the south the German position looks to be in shambles. 2nd Shock Army seems to have tough opposition in its front as well. Seems to me that Q-Ball has deduced which were my axis of advance, all he needed was to just follow the rail lines and join the dots . The January battle for reaching the Kaluga – Orel line is going to be a pitched one, and probably decide whether my Blizzard operations have been successful or not.

Further south I won't show more screenshots. Q-Ball wants to make a stand for Stary Oskol and in the Stalino front I'm completely blocked until I commit there the 3rd and 4th Shock Armies.

Logistics & Organization

Something interesting happened this turn with replacements, somehow I got 150,000 guys into the ranks. This increase is partly explained away by the number of Support Squads that got built: about 3,000. I hadn't produced one single support squad since Turn 22.

Force levels are acceptable, the strike forces have good TOE's and the rest are more or less equally ragged. I see quite a few units having supply problems because of operating well beyond my railheads, but they will have to make do with whatever they can glean out of the frozen Russian countryside.

Operations

The tempo of the offensives has gone substantially down. This is in part because I needed to redeploy my forces, and very little MP's were left after that, as well as a marked reduction in combat power for some units. So this turn I try accumulate some supply and keep fatigue levels in check. Hence, very few attacks are launched this turn, 16 attacks, of which 14 were successful. Loss ratio has been clearly in my favour: this turn I got 1:1. However, the volume of German losses is small, we're talking about 20,000 casualties for each side.

Since operations had to be limited, I wanted them to have some shock effect on Axis forces. I think there have been only three events worth reporting. I struck the weak German divisions in the area of Firovo

[center][/center]

Northwestern Front troops here are exhausted, and I don't think they'll be able to resume operations for two weeks at least. Volkhov Front will take over the responsability of applying pressure on the joint of 18. and 16. Armee lines.

While 2nd Shock Army gets into position, I push hard with the 1st Shock Army in the direction of Gorbachevo

[center][/center]

defeating the PzDivs Q-Ball had brought here to keep me in check, resulting in substantial AFV losses

[center][/center]

let's see what does Q-Ball next turn. He might well end up opening the door to Orel for me.

Even with limited MP's I can put some German units in trouble in the south:

[center][/center]

I'm trying to flank the Gebirgsjäger division Q-Ball put here to stop me, with some success. Let's see if he counterattacks. Things here can get very hot as soons as I deploy one of the Shock Armies I'm forming up behind the Donets.

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 29 – 1 January 1942

Happy new year to everyone! We leave behind the horrible year 1941 and enter into 1942 with a fresh look on things. Or perhaps not. Q-Ball has retreated in the north, inviting me to push all the way to Rzhev. On the Tula-Yelets and Stalino fronts he's reinforced and doesn't look to me as wanting to retreat any time soon.

Operational Situation Report

In the north he's basically abandoning a lot of useless forests

[center][/center]

but in the process he's also leaving Rzhev on striking range. With this retreat, Volkhov Front strength will be dilluted, but I'm not really caring much about the Finns right now. NW and Kalinin Fronts will concentrate on Rzhev, which is was one of my operational goals.

The other sector of the front where he's retreating is east of Kharkov

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it would certainly be sweet to strike towards Kharkov but this area is a complete Logistics nightmare, with my railhead at Starobelsk. I need to direct a few RR brigades to the army commands here.

Logistics & Organization

With 1942 the new manpower multiplier becomes in effect, and the manpower production is reduced from about 120,000 to 96,000 men per turn. That's almost a 30% reduction. A few Armaments and Heavy Industry factories didn't get enough supplies to produce at full efficiency, as well (7 ARM lacked supplies and 2 HI lacked resources). However, Armaments production has peaked at 79,500 points.

On the bright side, another 120,000 guys have entered the ranks.

Operations

My forces are really losing their edge, and with the Axis units recovering from blizzard effects, things become really difficult. This turn I have achieved a couple local successes, which have been compensated by a couple sharp defeats. I've managed to get good odds for launching 14 attacks, of whose only 10 have been successful.

Let's review these defeats, since they tell a lot about the state of matters. 40th Army has been so far quite successful pushing in the direction of Kaluga, but this turn it has suffered a quite catastrophic defeat at the hands of German motorized units:

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What seemed to be a quite feasible assignment – clobbering 251st Infantry Division – turned out to be quite impossible. Two German Motorized divisions were sitting on Kaluga in Reserve mode and came to the rescue of their kamerads. These reserves turned completely the tide in favor of the German defenders.

1st Shock Army has had a very good December, accomplishing all of its objectives with relative ease. But the fight for Gorbachevo isn't going to be nearly as easy. I sent it to attack the positions defended by 5th Panzer Division and 212nd Infantry Division just southeast of Gorbachevo

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Seems that Konev has had one of his “brilliant” performances this turn. Those AFV losses really hurt.

I'm trying not to trash my forces at brick walls, but things don't really work out as one expects sometimes. Loss exchange ratio has been of 1:3 in favor of the Axis. While my permanent losses haven't been too big, as most of the casualties in the battles have been damaged rather than destroyed ground elements, it is becoming apparent to me that we're entering a whole new phase of Winter.

While the original plans for 3rd and 4th Shock Armies were to employ them offensively on the Voroshilovgrad – Stalino axis, I'm starting to think that might not to be a very good idea. I'm not only limited by logistics, especially between Voronezh and Voroshilovgrad, but also by Q-Ball managing quite well his operational retreat. Cancelling offensive operations is premature, but I don't really see them going into February.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Well, I personally think it's a bit over the top that the Axis can get this far while taking out Leningrad and making historical advances in the south.

I've been fighting non stop in front of Moscow for almost 10 turns now. The entire summer, with no pause. Once he brought up his infantry to the landbridge more or less. I really doubt this was logistically possible in real life. And the Wehrmacht is at 3.2 million going into October, further solidifying my strong suspicion that manpower in this patch is grossly inflated for the Germans. It simply doesn't go down much, or at all. (Even the blizzard only has a temporary effect. By the end of February all the disableds recover, more or less, at least in my AI testing.)

I'm really not sure how you put a dent into this manpower.

Casualty ratios continue to be very high, 4-5:1. I'm not sure where people are getting this 2.6:1 business from. With these kinds of loss ratios, you hardly need to pocket: just pound the Soviet and wait for his stuff to lapse into unreadiness. (The average Soviet unit will not stand up to this kind of attrition very long before needing to be pulled out of the line. I'm spending a quite ridiculous amount of AP on reassignments thanks to this remorseless attrition.)

The 2.6 to 1 is from March 42 to end of war.

Also losses during 42 are much different then losses during 41. Moral of Russians is much higher over all and Germans moral is lower. -16 on all units just because of General winter.

So the old standard rule of 2.6 to 1 has not changed. I tried some attacks vs Kamil in our summer of 42 game and the results are the very same as before 1.05, 1.8ish to 1 generally. So the German will have to pocket units or not bother attacking and dig in.

1941 is an apple and 1942-45 is a orange.

As the devs have stated more then once the lose ratio is the same as before.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Also losses during 42 are much different then losses during 41. Moral of Russians is much higher over all and Germans moral is lower. -16 on all units just because of General winter.

Where do you get that -16 point reduction? I depends on supply shortage, and the amount of defeats units suffer. Besides that, motorized and elite units have bonuses that keep them above the National Morale. I don't think Q-Ball army quality will resent too sharply from these winter battles. I think I'll have a tough 1942 ahead [:(]