The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

I interrupt my thinking just to tell you this very very very important news... the last turn has just arrived...and...Multan is being abbandoned. All of a sudden from 450k troops they became 200k...and he moved back to Dehli his 300 fighters based there...

This, obviously, does change everything...if Rader will move back all those divisions to other theatres...well...you know...

[:o]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Playing scen #2 as the Allies with PDU on completly changes the nature of the air war. The worst notion an Allied player can have is to look at the campaign with the notion of fighting the war as it was really fought. That is, trying to fight a broad attritional war designed to overwhelm the Japanese with numbers. The Allied player has to focus his superior planes and (eventually) pilots on the main theaters at hand. You can expect massive Japanese fighter resistance at any point in the map. The key to taking it down is to close Japanese airfields that are most likely to impact your offensive moves and not worry too much about the Japanese air force in lesser theaters.

I agree with this in general, which is one reason I wonder why virtually no AARed games go mid-Pac (historical), and so many go DEI, where the LBA is a nest of vipers. The Marianas in summer 1944 is very, very hard to pull off, but it can be done. I think it should be a graduation exercise for a good PBEM player. Java, for the reasons Beppi outlines in his well-reasoned post, may be just too hard in Scen. 2.

[Canoerebel]

As a dedicated "Here I come DEI, despite hell or high water!" player, I fully agree with Bullwinkle.  He is right. 
 
The situation GJ faces cries out for a campaign in the Pacific Islands, where there are limited enemy airfields, where his carefully nurtured carrier power can soon be brought to bear most effectively, and where the full Allied might available in 1944 can overrun just about any enemy strongghold island.  (But where's the fun in bludgeoning your way across the Pacific?  Far more fun to "ignore" the strongest enemy garrisons while selecting more weakly-held islands that you can put to effective use).
 
Yes, the DEI promises to be an immense and bloody battle that should really bog down the Allies.  The heck with that!  Just go for the throat sometime in '44.  You can pick off some isolated bases relatively easily (Marcus, Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape) earlier in the year, giving you more experience, and then go for the jugular (Iwo, Okinawa, Formosa or maybe the Kuriles or Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) later in the year.  One benefit of such a plan is that you'll end up bypassing so much of the "key terrain" that rader will be striving to protect (DEI, Borneo, Luzon, Mariannas).  He'll be fit to be tied when you bypass these posts, rendering them and all the effort that went into protecting them irrelevant.
 
In the meantime, you can make lots of feints and noise in areas that rader will be sure to take notice - perhaps Cocos Island, India, Sumatra, Java, Timor, the Solomons, the Kuriles, etc.  Creating elaborate feints is fun - send in the occasional DD raiders; suddenly flood an area with subs; use long-range patrol aircraft to coincide with the other two. Rader will naturally conclude that you're giving those remote regions attention for a reason.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

P.S. I am one of a number of folks who are contributing a heck of alot of "do this/do that/do the other thing" advice.  All of us are endeavoring to help our good friend GJ, a relative newcomer who was introduced rather rudely to the game ("Hello, GJ.  My name is rader.  Just to show you a good time, I'm going to conquer China and pretty much all of India.  Have a great day!).
 
In the name of trying to help, though, we are inundating the poor lad.  We (I) probably need to back off, let him ask questions or seek advice when wanted, and let him chart his own course.  He's gotten a handle on much of the mechanics, and he's certainly showing that he's capable of developing eleaborate and effective offensive and defensive plans and operations.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Seriously guys...i'm not getting the whole jap-pilot/HI cost you're talking about... i mean...i understand the general sense (Rader maybe is able to by-pass the HI cost of draining thousands of pilots into war) but i'm not even trying to understand the complex procedure...Jap economy remains a black mistery to me!

Please read this thread:

printable.asp?m=2385586

Also read and understand this thread referenced in the first link:

tm.asp?m=2377907&mpage=2&key=

The seocnd link is VERY, VERY important for you to understand if you want to have insight into how HI and pilots correlate in rader's worldview.

I should also highlight this post from Andy Mac, in the second thread, which points to the Law of Unintended Consequences in Patching Games:

"Remember the HI change to charge for pilot numbers came in AFTER scen 2 was desinged - (Patch 2 I think it was)

So thats why Scen 2 was slightly out of kilter

I adjusted it in the data patch to reduce the extra pilots given to Japan in Scen 2 as it wasnt a benefit."

When and under which data patch you guys started this game might therefore be highly significant.

BUT, in short, what I've been talking about as the Fur Farm Maneuver relates to this HI "tax" described in the linked threads. IF, and I emphasize IF, rader pulls every single pilot he can into groups, group reserves, general reserves, and the replacement pool, he pays the "tax" on the pilots in the 12-month training pipeline. As Andy says, pre-data patch, these numbers ramped up significantly in early 1943 under the original Scenario 2 design, before there was an HI tax. The tax was inserted in a patch.

Rader only pays the tax on pilots in training school. Under the Fur Farm tactic, he can avoid the tax ONLY by emptying ALL of the group reserves, Reserve pool, and Replacement pools. At that point, if a unit needs a pilot, it will pull a semi-trained guy out of the school pipeline and put him in an operating unit. Every one of these partially trained guys who exit the school pipeline avoids the tax after that time. The code will pull the most-trained trainees first (9-12 months) and continue back through the quarters as each is emtpied. It tries to carry out the player's orders to fill the air units with warm bodies as long as it can, even if those warm bodies are only partly trained.

The Fur Farm would be a radical tactic to employ. It could only be undertaken if there were huge HI surpluses to build the thousands of aircraft that would need to be lost in order to "dispose" of the Reserves and Replacement Pools, and then draw down the training pipeline numbers. But, he has HI reserves coming from India. And even poorly-trained pilots in the thousands shoot down some Allied planes, which you can't replace. And the fury of this air combat makes the game look "busy", as if a whole lot is going on, when in reality it isn't.

That's the gist of it. Please take the time to read the two thread links above. There is a lot of info in them.

[USSAmerica]

GJ, if Rader does actually start to pull back in India, I think you should consider long and hard about pushing him the rest of the way out of the region.  I think recapturing the Indian industry (or at least denying it to Rader) would be almost as effective as driving into the DEI. 

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As a dedicated "Here I come DEI, despite hell or high water!" player, I fully agree with Bullwinkle.  He is right. 

The situation GJ faces cries out for a campaign in the Pacific Islands, where there are limited enemy airfields, where his carefully nurtured carrier power can soon be brought to bear most effectively, and where the full Allied might available in 1944 can overrun just about any enemy strongghold island.  (But where's the fun in bludgeoning your way across the Pacific?  Far more fun to "ignore" the strongest enemy garrisons while selecting more weakly-held islands that you can put to effective use).

Yes, the DEI promises to be an immense and bloody battle that should really bog down the Allies.  The heck with that!  Just go for the throat sometime in '44.  You can pick off some isolated bases relatively easily (Marcus, Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape) earlier in the year, giving you more experience, and then go for the jugular (Iwo, Okinawa, Formosa or maybe the Kuriles or Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) later in the year.  One benefit of such a plan is that you'll end up bypassing so much of the "key terrain" that rader will be striving to protect (DEI, Borneo, Luzon, Mariannas).  He'll be fit to be tied when you bypass these posts, rendering them and all the effort that went into protecting them irrelevant.

In the meantime, you can make lots of feints and noise in areas that rader will be sure to take notice - perhaps Cocos Island, India, Sumatra, Java, Timor, the Solomons, the Kuriles, etc.  Creating elaborate feints is fun - send in the occasional DD raiders; suddenly flood an area with subs; use long-range patrol aircraft to coincide with the other two. Rader will naturally conclude that you're giving those remote regions attention for a reason.

I actually agree CR, but still think the Java Islands campaign is worth considering.

There are 2 strategic goals for the Allies: 1) Cut off the resources of the DEI from the Home Islands; 2) Seize bases from which to conduct a strategic bombing campaign against the Home Islands.

The difficulties of employing a sub campaign to accomplish objective 1 have led to the popularity in AFB camps of attacking the DEI to seize or destroy the resources of the Indes directly. The Java Islands campaign could do that, and could convince Rader that GJ will follow the script of AFBs since the Q-Ball vs Cuttlefish AAR.

THEN GreyJoy, with several more months of hard combat experience under his belt, seeks to use the carrier heavy shortcut offensive to achieve objective 2. If he keeps up the pressure in the Solomons and in the DEI, and cranks up the pressure in India (with the twin goals of misdirection and depriving the enemy of India's industry), Rader will be doubly out of position when the hammer falls.

There are other paths to victory, but this plan IMHO will get GJ there the fastest and with the best attritional exchanges. The trade off is that it is rather complex, and GJ has expressed a desire to keep it simple.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Indeed. JFB that I am, I wish some compromise could be found between the "hordes of Nates" with PDU Off and the "Hordes of Tojos" with PDU On. In reality, I suspect Japan could have produced more and better planes than they did if they optimized production. Had that occurred, the US would surely have increased allocation of airframes to the PTO to compensate, even under the constraints of "Germany First."

I think I have a bigger problem with the ability to advance modern airframes way beyond their due date. I am OK fighting Franks in late 43 but will really start to hate this scenario if I see shidens and Japanese jets long before I get anything to counter them with. A month or two is fine but that is about it. I must admit, I also am a bit worried about the ramifications of kamikazes when there are so many frames to throw around.

As Viperpol my opponent pointed out in a different thread. With the Japanese, the imiting factor is the lack of support for all of these planes. But with the ability to rebuild lost support units and a shrinking perimeter it may not be such a problem later on. Only time will tell.

[GreyJoy]

Guys, just to let you know that i'm doing my homework hard...
I will try to reply to each of you...also to show my gratitude for the time you are spending teaching me and suggesting me

Beppi, CR, Bullwinkle, Crib, CRsutton, Obvert, Bolton, stark, the 2 Jeffs, USS America,...just to name the latests...Nemo, Alfred, Terje, FATR, ADB among those...and many many more...each of you should need a virtual "hug"[:)]

However...reading, researching, looking for other AARs...examples...testing...calculating...

Java...Timor...the old NG (east and west) route, the CENTPAC...and now with Rader retiring from Multan...my mind is a bit puzzled...i'm trying to grasp the consequences of my future actions...i'm trying to balance...should i change everything back and stick to the old plan...should i send more to India now that he's showing (maybe) a little fear (don't know what changed during the last weeks that convinced him to change in India)?...or should i simply keep on advancing like a bull...isle after isle till i reach Rabaul and Wewak...?

Lots of questions...and lots of possible answers too...

This was the last turn till Sunday...

So i need to update you...

Dec 19,20 1943

The enemy BBs did simply a trip...they showed themselfs and they went away...probably he was trying to protect Shortland against a bombing of my BBs now that Bouganville is in range... so nothing happened....

I decided ( :- ) ) that he sent his Kb back to Japan for some upgrades or R&Rs...my bet is that those 600 fighters seen at Rabaul are from the KB...he sent back his CVs...pretty sure of that....he did that or he's up to something...didn't seem them for a while now and only a couple of CVLs are moving close to Rabaul...

A question for you...what kind of Intel does Japan gets? Prepping units? Will he see my units prepping for java? That could be an answer about his strategy change in India...

[princep01]

Reek, based on my limited exposure to the IJN/IJA side, they get very little intel of significance at all. Others can confirm or deny my guess, but I do not think he gets much of anything about units being prepped for this action or that. This is based on what the Japanese players have told me about their intel intercepts in the three games I've played as the Allies.

Also, as your "friend" and cheif tormentor, I join the chorus of those urging you to reframe from the Java jab.

[GreyJoy]

Please read this thread:

printable.asp?m=2385586

Also read and understand this thread referenced in the first link:

tm.asp?m=2377907&mpage=2&key=

The seocnd link is VERY, VERY important for you to understand if you want to have insight into how HI and pilots correlate in rader's worldview.
[/quote]

printable.asp?m=2385586

Funny enough the second thread was started by Rader himself... got it however...but if it takes 50k clicks as they say...i bet noone with a good mental health would chose to do that

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Reek, based on my limited exposure to the IJN/IJA side, they get very little intel of significance at all. Others can confirm or deny my guess, but I do not think he gets much of anything about units being prepped for this action or that. This is based on what the Japanese players have told me about their intel intercepts in the three games I've played as the Allies.

Also, as your "friend" and cheif tormentor, I join the chorus of those urging you to reframe from the Java jab.

Yes, i'm not made up my mind yet...i'm massing my reserves by now...resting and giving some breath to those troops that have been on the line for more than a year now...

This week end i'll take my decision...Another option could be Diego (if he's really retiring from India...)...

But again...my mind is still too confused by now...thank God Rader was busy this week end...[&o]

[Cribtop]

Japanese intel seems worthless at first, and compared to Allied intel it is. You can glean a few hints, such as "Hmm, there are ships in Sydney." You can also extrapolate to "Hmm, maybe I got the intel today because those ships arrived in Sydney today." But that's about it.

Whether you do Java or not, think along the lines we have discussed in that Op. Think about the desired end state you want to achieve (e.g. "I want to destroy the Oil centers in the DEI," or "I want to cut off the DEI from the Home Islands" or even "I want to draw the IJN into attritional battles"). What you do is less important than how you do it. As long as you have identified a strategic goal and have operational and tactical level moves that pursue that goal - whatever it is - you will be on the right track.

[Dan Nichols]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Please read this thread:

printable.asp?m=2385586

Also read and understand this thread referenced in the first link:

tm.asp?m=2377907&mpage=2&key=

The seocnd link is VERY, VERY important for you to understand if you want to have insight into how HI and pilots correlate in rader's worldview.

printable.asp?m=2385586

Funny enough the second thread was started by Rader himself... got it however...but if it takes 50k clicks as they say...i bet noone with a good mental health would chose to do that

You should also reference this thread tm.asp?m=2941238&mpage=1&key=�
michaelm states that you can no longer pull pilots out of training. I do not know when it was changed or what version you are playing.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Please read this thread:

printable.asp?m=2385586

Also read and understand this thread referenced in the first link:

tm.asp?m=2377907&mpage=2&key=

The seocnd link is VERY, VERY important for you to understand if you want to have insight into how HI and pilots correlate in rader's worldview.

printable.asp?m=2385586

Funny enough the second thread was started by Rader himself... got it however...but if it takes 50k clicks as they say...i bet noone with a good mental health would chose to do that

You should also reference this thread tm.asp?m=2941238&mpage=1&key=�
michaelm states that you can no longer pull pilots out of training. I do not know when it was changed or what version you are playing.

I can't find any reference to this in any of the beta or official patch notes. This is potentially a very major change for the Japanese. It's possible that it, like so many features of the game, was changed with no consideration for the late war conditions the Japanese could, and did, find themselves in. Kamis and late-war combat over or near the HI can result in losses of hundreds per day. This change means that a Japanese player could potentilaly find himself with no replacemnts for most of a month for all of his air groups on the map.

I'm not usually one to put a lot of stock in the historical argument versus the game, but in this case to require any and all Japanese pilots to have a minimum of one year's training before they can fly is absurd. Many kami pilots had only a few HOURS.

[Canoerebel]

My PBEM Scenario Two with Miller went to mid August 1945. That game was pretty early in the Patch sequence, which may have an influence on what I'm about to say. Also, I did very little pilot training while Miller, the IJ player, did the full routine. The Allied advance through the DEI from early 1943 throughout 1944 was very tough and bloody, but by early 1945 the Allies had skipped across the South China Sea and had big air bases within strategic bombing range of major IJ bases in the southern Home Islands. Based upon that experience (and also Bullwinkle's comments about his late-game experience vs. the AI), here's a couple of things that I found:

1. Miller didn't radically advance the late-war uber weapons (Shinden, etc.). I wasn't facing uber weapons. I assume he would have advanced them if he could have.

2. I think Bullwinkle and some others had some very bad experiences with kamikazees. I did not. They were a threat I had to account for, but if felt about "right" to me. And that's with me not attending to pilot training.

3. Allied strategic bombing did not feel "right." Even B-29s were able to accomplish very little. My failure to pilot train might be part of the equation, but I believe Bullwinkle found the same to be true in his game. Blying B-29s at fairly long range (say 15 hexes or more) against decent fighter opposition isn't going to bludgeon Japanese industry.

[JeffroK]

I think,
2.  The AI doesnt care how many aircraft it puts into kamikaze service, a human might want his Emily's for search aircraft.
3.  I found you have to get the B29's close, often Hokkaido or Formosa as their bases. You can hit a base hard, but its costly to keep up the effort in supply and aircraft (OPs losses are the worst)

[GreyJoy]

Dear readers, dear friends, dear contributors
 
I've read and weighted all of your comments, taking into account the singularity of this particular match where Japan has China and India in its hands.
 
I've also spent the whole morning going through PzB vs AndyMac match, with particoular attention to the allied failed invasion of "W" (don't remember the exact name, north of Timor btw)... Andy arrived with a huge army and the whole allied fleet. PzB was at first caught a bit at surprise, but then managed to defeat the allies in an attrition campaign and finally repulsed the allied into the sea, destroying the whole allied CV fleet...
Andy clearly made some mistakes (who doesn't) but PzB didn't have built up nor reinforced the area before the allied invasion...yet he was able to gain always a local superiority and his ships managed to destroy the allied surface ships pretty easily. At the same time japanese LBA was able to match with allied LBA fairly well and when the KB attacked...well..
 
I know i'll sound like a wet flag weltered by the winter wind...but...Java operation has been halted.
 
Beppi was right. It's probably the worst possible choice i could make... It's clear to me that my abilities of analyze the strategic situation and the enemy capacity is still flawed and immature...
 
A new, less optimistic, plan is being considered in these hours.
It's just an addition to the old plan (NG+SOLOMONS).
Simply, the forces that i was assembling for Java will be used to secure the left flank of the advance in western NG, taking back the controll of northern Oz (later i'll explain the problems i have around Darwin) and support the major advance axis by securing a number of minor bases in the Ambon area (and possibly Timor).
The goal will be again the reach of Menado and Mindanao area by the end of 1944.
 
Yet again the new plan is still on paper...not a single order has been given yet...but...yes...now i see...Java was nothing more than a wet dream of a summer child who knows nothing about Winter

[GreyJoy]

About Darwin...
 
i'll post a detailed screenshot later...but Darwin has been abbandoned by allied forces in early 42 because of supply problems
and never garrisoned later on.
The island right in front of Darwin have immediately be conquered by japan in early 42 and garrisoned with 10 units and built up to AF 9...
Behind this jap strong outpost, the whole Timor Area is siezed and well built, with several AFs built up to 9 and all the minor ones up to their max.
Timor alone has 125,000 troops.
 
I don't wanna risk too much.
So our approach will be slow and methodical.
We'll get to Darwin using 3 routes.
We'll start moving transports to Alice spring, flying supplies and Eng up to Katherine. From there up to Darwin, while a small force will march to the northern city.
From Mareuake we'll start conquering the dot bases on the gulf south east of Darwin and slowly building them up.
The bulk of our forces will move from Perth up to Port Hedland and Derby (that are already built up to their max) and will get ready to jump to Bathurst Island.

When these "low risk" operations will be finished, we'll be ready to move north...i will try to avoid a long campaign in Timor...would like to move to Ambon area with the support of the LBA so to cover the flank of the future advances in eastern NG.
 
Anyway...one step at time...
 
The next operations will be Choiseul Bay and Tresury (as soon as Munda becomes operational), followed up by Torokina and Buka for the SOPAC.
In SWPAC we'll keep on advancing towards Salamua and Lae extending our air supremacy in the region, while from Mereuake raiders and eng will fast conquer the dot bases early mentioned.
In the meantime the Perth Army will get ready...
 
 

[modrow]

GreyJoy,

have you become a wolf, or why did you forget these words that should sound familiar:

"What is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger"

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I've also spent the whole morning going through PzB vs AndyMac match,

If you have spent the whole morning reading about the epic battle between PzB and Andy Mac, in my opinion you should have noticed one really important thing: The Allied can take several really severe beatings, but they keep coming back.

I may add that in contrast to the Japanese, a lot of Allied men have blue eyes and their flesh is pale like milk. Rader should be the one who feels bad that Winter is coming. You are in command of the others, thus you should rejoice.

Personally, I believe you need to overcome a psychological barrier and make the big jump into a big operation - whichever that operation should be. Yes, you may be repulsed - but you will come back, harder and stronger.

Just my 2cts.

Hartwig