Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

I´ve made a huge decision.

Last turn I went through almost every unit on map considering all options. I came to the following conclusion:

I will make a general withdrawal on all units exposed in Burma and stand down all offensive air missions everywhere. The reason for this is simply that my fighter aircraft pools are seriously low. I have about 100 each of P39s and P40Ks. But I can´t really do anything with them besides giving Erik 200 almost free kills. P38 pools are dry but I have 4 squadron fully filled on map. I have sent all fighterpilots that are on map (except in the P38 squadrons) with experience over 70 to the pool and filled the squadrons with fresh pilots (50/70/60). They will build experience doing defensive CAP over the coming months. I have 800 70+ EXP pilots in the Army pool right now. Once I get some useful airframes I think I can use them to break the back of the IJAAF in Burma. Once I do that I can use my superior bombers to slowly grind his army in Burma down.

Right now I can´t really do anything in Burma with my Army. I need to have airsuperiority to break his defensive positions. He has about 300 Tojos stationed in Burma and I can´t afford the cost to try and do offensive bombings needed to dislodge him from Katha. Last time I tried doing anything like that it cost me almost 100 Fighters in losses from CAP over the oil wells at Magwe. I do at some point have to take these out though. Might try a massed nightbombing the next time I get 100% Moon.

Burma will be the major Allied effort in 43 and 44 due to CV shortages. Two US divisions are en-route.

RAF pools are in good shape with about 120 Hurricanes in different shape but the pilot pools is dangerously low with only 80 fighter pilots left. I lost 60 pilots over the last month and another month of this would deplete the pool.

Navy pool is empty on fighters and DBs. I have almost 200 TBs though but not enough pilots to man them and unescorted they will die in droves anyway. So the Navy and Marines will slowly, slowly grind north towards the Solomons avoiding heavy losses and fighting only defensively. Two Oz squadrons with Spitfires and elites pilots will aid here. I will stand down the 4Es for a while to build pools and fill out the 8(!) squadrons waiting for planes. If I can have them all operational I can mass almost 300 4Es in about 2 months. Keep them in Sopac or send them to Burma?... Hmm.

So I have about 4 months of almost complete inactivity before me. Only action will be in Oz towards Carnarvon and another go at Darwin since supply suddenly picked up at Tennant Creek.

It will be a ZZZzzZZznorefest for sure but I see no other option right now. Though as usual I´m very open to suggestions! [:)]

So I think updates on this AAR will be very sporadic from now on. I doubt Erik will do much besides digging deeper so I don´t think there will be much to report.

[BBfanboy]

Can't blame you for wanting to get your ducks in a row before you get aggressive again.
Perhaps you could post every two weeks, summarizing the sub wars and overall air combat?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Can't blame you for wanting to get your ducks in a row before you get aggressive again.
Perhaps you could post every two weeks, summarizing the sub wars and overall air combat?

Absolutely! [:)]

[Dan Nichols]

To be honest Jocke, I think you should press hard in the South Pacific. The New Caldonia and New Hebrides area is prime for using your reconstituted USN fighter units. You will be getting F6F-3s next month and they will stand up to what ever the IJN A6 model is active now. Use LCTs, LSMs, LCMs, LCVPs, LSTs, and LCIs so you can unload in one day or less. You should have or be able to buy a lot of these. You have loads of USN SeaBees, use them. Take a number of undefended islands and then bomb the snot out of the islands he holds and then take them. It is slow, but effective. You get experience at doing these things, your cyber solders, airmen and seaman get experience and you start taking back the Pacific. You will need to take these bases in the future anyway, now is a good time. It will also help split his attention and resources.

To really do well in Burma you will have to have control of the sea lanes to provide for supply ships to land in Rangoon in the future. It is a long time until the British have enough to provide this. Especially if you do not press him in the South Pacific. You do not want him to be able to concentrate most of his resources in one area. You need to make sure he keeps KB in the South Pacific. Plus, there is a chance you will get a shot at him using your bought out USN air units.

[JocMeister]

Hi Dan! [:)]

You are right as usual. I´ve attached a screenshot of the current situation and possible plans for the future. What do you think? Should I take advantage of the dot islands still in my hands? If so how exactly do I do it? The problem as I see it is speed. Yes I can unload in a day using the mentioned craft but I will be spotted way in advance. The speed of LSTs is 10 knots and "barges" only 9. So I will have to use the APAs in that case. Is it worth the risk? My gut says I really don´t want to loose them! They have currently about 15 days left until conversion to APAs/AKAs is done.

I have to be really careful not to loose any aircraft needlessly whatever I do. I have NO DBs in the pool and several squadrons are seriously understrength. So he can pretty much move around with the KB unmolested even within my aircover. But hopefully he doesn´t know that! [:D]

You are completely right about keeping the pressure up if I should have any chances of doing something in Burma. I think Erik might be a bit prone to overreacting. When I moved into Burma he immediately withdrew two confirmed divisions from the Sopac area. He might have pulled another one from OZ. Not sure about that one. Perhaps a strong move in Sopac will force him to shift forces once more.

Canton Island

As seen in the screenshot I have plenty of forces fully prepped for this target but he has a lot of forces on the island. I can only stay for a day before the KB arrives. I can´t give any aircover at all. But if I can get to Gardner Island... What do you think? He can easily blockade anything I land and just starve it so I need to get a whole bunch of supplies and defensive power in place in the first go.

[JocMeister]

Port Morseby

I have been toying with the idea of doing a landing here for quite some time. The plan was initially to go after Noumea was captured and the AP/AKs had converted. The question I have is if its still possible to do a major landing here without Carriers?

My gut feeling says this is probably possible to get the troops onshore in good order if I can achive total suprise but I will probably loose most of my shipping since it will be boxed in against the East Coast after the initial landings. The landing in itself would have to rely solely on LRCAP by P38 (Only 50 available) from Portland roads. That can be maintained for a day. Possible two! After that PM will be on its own for a while.

The Noumea and Tanna disaster showed that even a 200 CAP will mean absolutely nothing since 99% of whatever he sends will get through CAP. So I doubt a 300-500 CAP will make much more difference. Even if I disband all involved shipping on the East Coast of OZ he can probably get to them even if I devote a huge CAP. AA means absolutely nothing in this game so no need to mass that for protection.

It would require luring the KB away. Shouldn´t be too hard since I only have to feint somewhere in the SoPac area and Erik will guaranteed send in the KB at the first sign of something happening where he can use the KB.

The forces prepped are displayed in the screenshot. Would it be enough? I can probably mass 200-300 4Es to help pound his troops.

Even if it would be possible to take PM. Is it worth the risk and will it achieve something meaningful? I think surprise would have to be complete so he can´t concentrate his landbased air currently at Tulagi and Ndeni (about 200 fighers plus unknown number of Betty/Nells).

Can I land during the night and get back before morning?

Lots of questions! [:)]

[Dan Nichols]

I think you are being too optimistic. I was advocating taking islands that are no more than 2 hexes from you last one. Take very small steps to the North. If you try to take Port Moseby at this time without serious CV support, you will probably fail and lose more valuable shipping.

The other operations seem to be high risk with low reward. Why risk anything for the Ellice Islands? Four islands there, all with SPS 0 airfields. Only Funafunti has a port with a SPS of 1 and not 0.

Why worry about risking your scarce assets for the Phoenix Islands? Not one island can have an airfield larger than 3, and only Canton Island itself can have a port larger than 3.

Right now I would concentrate on marching and taking La Foa and Koumak. The the small islands Northeast of Noumea. Build these to provide some air cover and allow your F6F-3 pool to grow. After, take Anatom and then build up Eroomango. Then step North to take Efate and continue North an island at a time, never more than 2 hexes at a time. You can step all the way to Ndeni that way. Ndeni is within normal range of P47-D25s using drop tanks of guadalcanal area. By that time you may have enough to jump to the Solomon Islands or to move elsewhere.

BTW, you have a line showing the Betty line. More important should be the limit of his longest range fighters. Once you cross that line, you must have good air cover over everything to make him pay.

[JocMeister]

Dan,

I think that will be easy to do. Erik has evacuated everything and it looks like he is either pulling out or reinforcing Ndeni. I think reinforcing. LaFoa and Koumac is already in my hands since last turn. Efafe and Luganville is being reduced to rubble by 4Es. Will land on Efafe as soon as I get some appropriate shipping in place.

I think he will make a stand on Ndeni. I won´t be able to directly assault it as it is too close the the lurking KB. But perhaps once Luganville is built up I can reduce it to rubble using 4Es...

You are right about Ellice and Phoenix islands. They won´t be useful to me besides shortening supply lines from WC. But I think they can be used as a diversion to get the KB out of the way if needed.

[ny59giants]

Don't quote me on this, but the unload rate for an xAP is 250 per phase, an AP is 500, and an APA is near 2000. I remember Alfred posting this a long time ago and wrote it down someplace that i would lose track of it. too bad, its in a stack of papers some where or I accidentally threw it away. If Alfred reads this, he can correct me.

Thus, use lots of ships and load accordingly to get your troops off loaded in one day or two days max using these numbers as a basic guideline.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Don't quote me on this, but the unload rate for an xAP is 250 per phase, an AP is 500, and an APA is near 2000. I remember Alfred posting this a long time ago and wrote it down someplace that i would lose track of it. too bad, its in a stack of papers some where or I accidentally threw it away. If Alfred reads this, he can correct me.

Thus, use lots of ships and load accordingly to get your troops off loaded in one day or two days max using these numbers as a basic guideline.

I keep this handy for cutting and pasting. [;)]

6.3.3.3.2 AMPHIBIOUS UNLOADING

The Amphibious Unload Rate bonus applies only to ships in an Amphibious TF. Amphibious Unload rates are determined by ship type (i.e., beaching craft, amphibious ship types, or ordinary transport/cargo ship types). There are no Port-derived cargo handling limits. Amphibious Unload only applies to Troops and Cargo (equipment and supply). Amphibious Unload does not apply to Fuel, Oil or Resources. Note that there is also an initial operations bonus for the Japanese during the first 4 months of the war.

Amphibious Unload may be used in two situations: an assault unloads over the beach, and amphibious unload in a small friendly port. Amphibious Unload Rate bonuses differ for the two situations.

6.3.3.3.2.1 OVER THE BEACH

This is for assault unloading over the beach.

» Beaching Craft. Beaching craft unload completely in one turn.
» Attack Amphibious Ships. (APA/AKA plus LSD, LSV and British equivalents)
in Amphibious TFs, unload at a Rate of 3000 points per ship, per turn.
» Regular Transport Ships. (Commissioned Naval AP/AK) in Amphibious
TFs, unload at a Rate of 600 points per ship per turn.
» Merchant Ships. (xAP/xAK) in Amphibious TFs, unload
at a Rate of 250 points per ship per turn.
» Special Japanese early war bonus of 1200 for all AP/AK and xAP/xAK types.

6.3.3.3.2.2 FRIENDLY PORT

For Amphibious docked at and unloading in a friendly port of Size 4 or less, the unload rate is slightly different for Troops and Cargo.

» Beaching Craft. Troops unload at a Rate of 1000 points per ship per
turn. Cargo unloads at a Rate of 750 points per ship per turn.
» Attack Amphibs. Troops unload at a Rate of 1000 points per ship per
turn. Cargo unloads at a Rate of 750 points per ship per turn.
» Regular Amphibs. Troops unload at a Rate of 300 points per ship per
turn. Cargo unloads at a Rate of 300 points per ship per turn.
» Merchant Ships. Troops unload at a Rate of 125 points per ship per
turn. Cargo unloads at a Rate of 125 points per ship per turn.

Amphibious TFs not docked at a friendly port unload at a different rate, depending on port size, amount of free dock space, and the types of ships in the TFs. Amphibious ship types, with attached landing craft, will unload faster than non-amphibious ships.

[ny59giants]

witpqs - thanks for the exact info. I was in the ball park, but maybe a little off the playing field. [:D] I did a quick 'copy & paste' followed by a print out.

Clarification - when its says, "per turn," does that mean per day or for each of the unloading phases in a turn??

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

witpqs - thanks for the exact info. I was in the ball park, but maybe a little off the playing field. [:D] I did a quick 'copy & paste' followed by a print out.

Clarification - when its says, "per turn," does that mean per day or for each of the unloading phases in a turn??

Good question! That was later clarified/corrected - it means per phase, of which there are two per day. I avoid using the term "turn" only because some people do two day-turns.

[JocMeister]

Thats is great info witpqs! Thank you [:)]

Not much to update. We are only a week from "Hellcat month"... can´t wait!

Subwar
I finally got some good news to report from the submarine war though. See screen. Perhaps, perhaps the Junyo is done for. Its listed on the sunk list but no score added...

Elsewhere the submarine war is NOT going as I wished for. He is using very heavy escorted convoys packed with PBs that seem to act as TT magnets. My subs usually get a shot off at the PB/DDs, misses/duds and then survives the DCing but have to RTB for repairs. I think I´m getting about a ship per week. Thats it. Not good enough. [:(]

Sopac
Building up Koumac and Nomuea. Transfering engineers and troops preparing for the invasion of Efate. Its empty so I don´t expect much trouble. It will be built up to max and make a nice cozy 4E hive to blast Luganville and Ndeni until Erik tires of it and leaves. Then its rinse and repeat until 46 is up...

Aircraft pools
4E pools are growing quickly now that I get 48 per month! Fighterpools are still crap. DB pools are completely empty.

Just released about 300 army pilots to the pool. I now have 1800 army pilots with an average EXP of 60. Navy pool is not looking anywhere near as good.

Oh, and I ambushed some Betties doing milking runs. Oh how the escort mission is borked. My pilots where just out of flightschool. 50/70/60. Eriks where "far from green".

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 16
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 25



Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 11
P-40K Warhawk x 22


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 9 destroyed
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 6 destroyed, 6 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 16
G4M1 Betty x 15



Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 7
P-40K Warhawk x 15


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 4 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 2 destroyed

As soon as you put a fighter on Escort it turns into a Nate. If this is how it was in the war the Allies would still try to bomb Berlin...

Anyway, here is the good news! What do you think? Is she done for?

[JocMeister]

Just did the following turn. Nothing picked up at Ndeni and his Carries withdrew. If he had Junyo disbanded there I´m sure he would have left the KB there for cover. Nothing picked up by subs or Catalinas. His carriers just vanished so probably left at good speed.

So one of two things happened:
1. She sank like a rock.
2. Some damage that didn´t effect much.

I´m thinking number 2 is more likely since no "heavy fires" or "heavy damage" was listed. I´m going to assume she is still afloat but will require some time at the yards next to Ryujo.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Just did the following turn. Nothing picked up at Ndeni and his Carries withdrew. If he had Junyo disbanded there I´m sure he would have left the KB there for cover. Nothing picked up by subs or Catalinas. His carriers just vanished so probably left at good speed.

So one of two things happened:
1. She sank like a rock.
2. Some damage that didn´t effect much.

I´m thinking number 2 is more likely since no "heavy fires" or "heavy damage" was listed. I´m going to assume she is still afloat but will require some time at the yards next to Ryujo.

I think it was witpqs who said he calculates a "fuel storage explosion" did damage equivalent to two bomb hits. Having said that, there will definitely be fires and each time there is a "Ships perform damage control" phase [about 3 times a day], there is a chance that the ship will fail the roll and fires will go up. The higher they go, the more chance of failure on the next roll.
The signal I would watch for is the "aircraft lost on the ground". When you see the equivalent of a carrier's worth of fighters, DBs and TBs, you have your confirmation. Unfortunately, if the ship has initial damage under 50% it could fly off the squadrons to a friendly base.

[witpqs]

Wasn't me, but it's better than any of my guesses.

[Dan Nichols]

You can never be sure. A fuel explosion can easily lead to fires and with the abysmal damage control of the IJN, that could doom her. Also, this was a sub attack at night. If the CV was heavily damaged it would be transferred to an escort TF with 1 DD for company and sent back to the nearest large port. It might have headed for Raboul or something.

[JocMeister]

I won´t totally give up hope she might still sink if fires started raging. But I will assume she will be back in 2-3 months and anything else will be a added bonus. [:)]

Nothing happened last turn. But I´m starting to get a pleasant problem. I have so many convoys everywhere I´m starting to loose track of them. I needed fuel for Nomuea and started gathering up a convoy from Oz to send there when I "found" a Tanker TF with 150.000 tonnes of fuel in Melbourne. I had forgotten about it! Quite embarrassing! [:D]

So I started going through all my TFs and found another 120K supply convoy forgotten at Malden Island... I better start taking notes! [X(]

I quickly summed up my total tonnage of fuel and supply and right this minute I have almost 800K worth of fuel and supply on map in convoys!. That is not including the empty convoys! I have roughly 140 empty ships in convoys and on map RTB. Thats pretty much I think! [X(]

I wonder how much the Jap side have in terms of lifting capacity at this time of the war. [&:]

[BBfanboy]

I think I read in the release notes for the last upgrade that it is more important now for the Allied player to bring resources back to his industries. Accordingly, I usually route the empty ships to any safe port that has resources I can move. This means Port Hedland early on, Nauru Is and Ocean Is if the Japanese do not have bombers at Tarawa yet, Juneau and one of the Alaskan islands [near Kodiak], and any place in the Indian Ocean that seems to be building a stockpile of resources. It's a bit of a pain to micromanage these small resource convoys with waypoints to keep them out of trouble, but if it gets me earlier production on new tanks, guns and planes, I'll put up with it.

[JocMeister]

BBfanboy. Never new about the resources? Only PH seems to be short on it?

Looks like Erik will make a stand on Ndeni...