Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[Schlemiel]

Isn't it still possible, however unlikely, for your own leader to fail the check at 82? I'm not certain, but I am reasonably confident that having the higher rating doesn't automatically grant you white or +leader.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Thanks! Had me worried there that there was a whole new part to land combat intel I didn't know about*

*in addition to the millions of stuff that I don't know already

Haha, I share that feeling! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

Isn't it still possible, however unlikely, for your own leader to fail the check at 82? I'm not certain, but I am reasonably confident that having the higher rating doesn't automatically grant you white or +leader.

You might be right! Wiser men will have to give a definitive answer on that! [:D]

[House Stark]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Out of curiosity: Why 6 hexes and not 7?

I'm still stuck on the early war Allied CV plane ranges. [;)]

Avengers can only carry TT out to 6 hexes.

True, but wouldn't Avengers with bombs be more useful than no Avengers at all? I'd think that especially with the 8-hex Japanese strike range, you would want to maximize your potential of getting a return strike, even if it doesn't have torps.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: House Stark

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Out of curiosity: Why 6 hexes and not 7?

I'm still stuck on the early war Allied CV plane ranges. [;)]

Avengers can only carry TT out to 6 hexes.

True, but wouldn't Avengers with bombs be more useful than no Avengers at all? I'd think that especially with the 8-hex Japanese strike range, you would want to maximize your potential of getting a return strike, even if it doesn't have torps.

I think the problem might be skill. I think training them in both NavT and NavB would require too much effort? I would at least prioritize getting NavS and ASW up quick as hell after NavT was up to 70.

[ny59giants]

Jocke,
How do you train up your naval air?? This is what I do.....
Fighters - Air and then Straf to raise Defend
DBs (SBDs) - NavB and then NavS
TBs (Avenger) - NavT and then Gnd
FPs - NavS, ASW, and then Recon

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Jocke,
How do you train up your naval air?? This is what I do.....
Fighters - Air and then Straf to raise Defend
DBs (SBDs) - NavB and then NavS
TBs (Avenger) - NavT and then Gnd
FPs - NavS, ASW, and then Recon

Fighters Air and then Straf to 70/70
DBs NavB/Navs/Grnd 70/70/50
TBs NavT/ASW/NavS/Grnd 70/70/50/50
FPs/Patrol Navs/ASW 70/70 (will start doing recon from now on. Never thought of that!) [:)]

This is hard to achieve early game of course so during 42 and early 43 they will only be trained in the first two skills. Ground is trained last of course. When time permit I of course train up the lower skills from 50 to 70.

Now later game I have a quite different setup with ASW dedicated CVEs. Those pilots are quickly trained in only NavT or NavB and ASW. I also have a large number of pilots trained only in NavT or NavB and Grnd. I have been using a system of dedicated CVEs for ground attack. Very happy with the result when doing atoll invasions. These CVEs have a lot longer staying power than BBs. 200 DBs on Ground attack do the same amount of damage as a bunch of BBs. But they don´t have to RTB to replenish ammo and can pound day after day for about 2 weeks! [:)]

[JocMeister]

No turn

No turn from Erik for a few days. He let me know today he would need until tomorrow to sort a lot of ingame stuff out. Since I will be extremely busy on Mondays and Tuesday I told him he might as well keep on to it until Wednesday.

Speculating a bit on the delay I am curious for its reason. I´m guessing a few things might have happened.
- He spotted my Marianas reinforcement TF
- He spotted my DEI invasion fleet
- He spotted my Moulmein invasion fleet
- He spotted my Sorong invasion fleet.

He might have spotted them all. Or just one or two.

Burma
After giving this a bit of thought I realised it might actually be the Burma invasion that has him freaked out the most. He has only 1 unit at Moulmein (big mistake!). He has no naval power in the area that can intervene. He might not even have any Naval bombers besides 27 Nells used to night mine ports to interdict the shipping. Most crucially his troops can´t get there in time unless they already are in strat mode. But that means they won´t have time to get to combat mode once they arrive before I land.

Sorong vs DEI
He is probably also wrestling with the Sorong vs DEI dilemma. I for one think its an easy one but Erik and I might not think alike. He might already have stocked enough HI and fuel that he can survive until 46 without it?

KB vs the Allied Fleet
Added to this is the question if he should try and intercept my Sorong Fleet with the KB. This might be the last chance before I get overwhelmingly powerful. The longer he waits the stronger I get. But at the same time I´m already twice as strong as the KB and that is not taking the Corsair/Hellcat vs Zero into consideration. So should he seek the "decisive battle" against the whole US and British fleet combined? Probably not. And given KBs appalling track record after the CV battle in 1/43 (where things might have gone very differently if not for the silly 8 hex strike) Erik might be extra wary. He has managed to get his strike planes wiped out 3 or 4 times by now. So pilot quality might even be worse than allied.

Erik has previously played very aggressively and taken a lot of chances. Mostly it hasn´t payed off very well and he has been lucky he hasn´t lost any CVs to LBA. But this would be a massive gamble. If he lost the KB I´m fairly certain I could secure the Philippines before 44 is up. Erik probably knows this too. Going through the intel there are almost no Japanese combat troops on the Philippines at all.

Marianas
This is clearly a failure for (no being able to close the AF) him and now allied reinforcements is arriving. Should he give up or keep the bombers here? I have only 8 CVEs (240 Hellcats) ready to cover. But he doesn´t know that. Does he think the whole allied fleet is here? He also doesn´t know that I´m ready to fly in 225 P47s to protect the fleet.

It might also be something totally unrelated. Did he miss the fact that the magic 250 plane AS limit went away with the BETA. So he is now struggling to shift AS around and keep planes in the air? I also sent in a daylight B29 raid after noticing all the fighters listed at Hong Kong showed up at night. Does he now feel he has to devote more fighters to be able and keep both day and night CAP up?

Where to send his bombers? Should he concentrate on one incursion and letting the other get by unscaved. Should he divide equally or focus more on one or two? Important decision!

All speculation of course but it does make me feel alot better knowing he might actually be more fearful than I am! [:D]

[BBfanboy]

Hi Jocke! You have really put him in a bind with the simultaneous threats all around his perimeter [except NPac]. He may be considering pulling back to new defence lines and working out how to withdraw his threatened units and already engaged troops.

I would not be too confident that large numbers of Corsairs and Hellcats will prevent his strikes getting to your carriers. The game limits the number of fighters that can engage and has a "200 passes" limit on the number of attacks on the enemy - I'm not sure if this includes the escort fighters or just the bombers. Anyway, in other AARs it seems that with a series of large and small strikes the first few get chewed up but after a while Japanese aircraft get through and make hits. KB alone cannot muster enough strike power to do this but with lots of LBA bases in DEI/Palaus, and Mindanao he can get through if willing to take the losses.

BTW, I think the term you were looking for is "unscathed", although "unscaved" sounds like they were saved from being entombed underground - another good thing! [:D]

[JocMeister]

Yeah, I know about the 200 passes rule. It worries me quite a lot to be honest.

I try to think of it in terms of KB losses instead to ease my mind. I can afford getting my whole CV fleet sunk. But ONLY if I sink the KB in return. My losses are really irrelevant as long as I can inflict equal or greater damage to the KB. I will have 500 Hellcats escorting 750 DB/TBs. If I can get one good alpha strike to fly there won´t be much of a KB left hopefully.

I´m also hoping the switch to the BETA will help me with LBA. I´ve been following GJ/Q-balls game with interest and it does look like its very hard for LBA to penetrate CAP. So I should be able to handle the LBA as long as it doesn´t coordinate with his CV strike. Erik hasn´t had time to build up all the small bases in the area. We also have an agreement not to put more engines at a base then we have AS. So that should limit him quite a lot.

But yeah, I´m pretty nervous about the whole thing! As that wasn´t obvious already! [:D]

Unscatched! Whoops! [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

My vote would be he's doing a top-to-bottom economy re-look, with a view to cutting to the bare minimums, further reducing the ship build, and reorienting his aircraft industires to get rerady for the kami era. He may also be working out ways to march out of Burma toward supply sources in Malaysia and Indochina.

[JocMeister]

Might be, but so far he hasn´t shown any tendencies towards withdrawing south in Burma. He might be somewhat low on supply but so far I have seen no signs of it being bad enough to warrant a withdrawal. He can probably draw it pretty effortless over the yellow roads from Thailand. I hope you are right though. I´m sick of Burma. I want to see Thailand! [:D]

[JocMeister]

Replay

Erik uploaded the replay but I asked him to hold off the turn until Wednesday as I will be swamped in the coming days. Some good allied news though! I absolutely SMASHED the CAP at Sorong this turn. In a stroke of luck my Sweeps coordinated and 100 P47s hit the base. I think the score will land around 80-5 in allied favor.

Erik had no daylight CAP up at Hong Kong! [:'(] 60 LI hits probably means its smashed down to zero.

Hard to tell if my invasion TFs were spotted or not without seeing the turn file. I´ll know on Wednesday!

[JocMeister]

No Turn today

Well I got the turn but I won´t have time for it tonight. This week is just killing me. [:(] I hope I´ll have time for the turn and an update tomorrow.

[JocMeister]

5th July -44

I did manage to get Erik a turn yesterday just before bed. Erik also sent another back to me but I get the "failed to load" message. But I did see the replay.

New Guinea
I was a bit too optimistic about the Sorong sweep. While not 80-5 it was still 48-3. Not too shabby! But I did loose a triple ace which stings a bit. The follow sweeps did well too. Erik moved a lot of fighters in though so I did take losses. Not sure about the exact losses yet though. He also moved in A LOT of MTBs at Sorong. So I´ll need to kill them off as quickly as possible. I will send in some of the Fletcher TFs to clear the way.

I ordered another attack at Nabire that went horrible wrong.

Ground combat at Nabire (86,114)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 11685 troops, 227 guns, 139 vehicles, Assault Value = 420

Defending force 6002 troops, 44 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 176

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Allied adjusted assault: 148 [:(]

Japanese adjusted defense: 475

Allied assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(-) What the HECK? [&:] Attached a screen with his stats.

Japanese ground losses:
368 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 42 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
205 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 66 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

At Aitape there are better news and the base will be in allied hands very shortly.

Burma
WOW! Moulmein landing is cancelled. [X(] Never got such a faulty intel from recon before. There are now 15 units and 56.000 troops listed there. No way Erik could have moved that in over just a turn so it must have been my intel. I sent the TFs back to Ramree. I´m going to start some flanking movements here instead. Erik has a long border to cover and supply isn´t an issue. I need to keep him from withdrawing troops. I have seen some troop movements towards the south.

Darwin/OZ/DEI
Loading is taking forever. Probably loaded this turn though. Going by the replay Erik still has the usual 5-6 SCTF in the area and seems to have kept them there rather than sending them towards Sorong. I am a bit weak here on surface power. Hopefully Fletchers will prevail. I´ll try to send them in in advance of the landing to clear the way.

Marianas
My CVE TF detected some pickets last turn which probably blew their cover and this turn they were definitely picked up by search. I also had 2 of my subs stationed NW of the Marianas getting attacked 10+ times by Jills. Is this the KB?! [X(] If so I have little chance of getting the troops on shore. I´ll hold back and send in some more subs I have in the area.

Thrym
Well, the cover is certainly blown. Erik picked me up right outside Sarmi on the 5th already. I guess its pretty much impossible to hid 400 ships that close. A lot of subs is between me and Sorong. I have the usual ASW cover up but I fear he will nail a CV or two as usual [:(]

[JocMeister]

Idiot Alert

Never have two copies of the turn. Was a bit confused when I watched the replay. Now I know why some things were very odd. I started working on the turn last night when I was interrupted so I saved in another slot than the usual one. But when I came back a few hour later I opened the wrong one. So basically everything I did in NG, OZ, CENTPAC and the US were never done in the turn file I sent to Erik.

Cost me 20 P47s, another triple ace and 4 double aces. The DEI invasion never left port. 30 minutes of pilot fiddling was in vain. 20 minutes of sub fiddling was also in vain. Two TFs at Finschhafen never stopped loading so its now completely drained of supply. ARRRHG!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Idiot Alert

Never have two copies of the turn. Was a bit confused when I watched the replay. Now I know why some things were very odd. I started working on the turn last night when I was interrupted so I saved in another slot than the usual one. But when I came back a few hour later I opened the wrong one. So basically everything I did in NG, OZ, CENTPAC and the US were never done in the turn file I sent to Erik.

Cost me 20 P47s, another triple ace and 4 double aces. The DEI invasion never left port. 30 minutes of pilot fiddling was in vain. 20 minutes of sub fiddling was also in vain. Two TFs at Finschhafen never stopped loading so its now completely drained of supply. ARRRHG!

I have the Real Save in slot 15. Slot 10 is called "Interim Save" for those times you have to leave it and come back. Which only works if you come back and re-load slot 10. [:)]

IOW, a permanent Interim isn't idiot-proof either.

[JocMeister]

Yeah, kind of the same system I have. I use the "interim" for the AAR too. Screenshots and whatnot. I think I will scratch that and use only one save from now on. Could have ended a lot worse! [:D]

[JocMeister]

6th-7th July -44

So, the big day finally arrived. Good thing I´m slightly drunk on some fantastic Swedish ale called Oppigårds Amarillo! [:D]

The big focus on the coming days will be on Thrym but I´ll give a short recap on anything else of importance that happens.

Burma
4 days of appalling weather allowed Rangoon to reopen. To my surprise Erik moved fighters in there. Why? I can sweep only 3 hexes away from Prome a now level 9 AF with 1400 AS. 250 P47s will sweep tomorrow. Second cycle is 140 Corsairs and 75 P51Ds followed by a third cycle of some 150 Spit VII + Tbolts. This is just giving away kills for me. No idea why he did that but thank you! [:)]

Darwin
I decided to withdraw with the invasion. I don´t want to risk the troops. But I did order some Fletcher into Timor to see if I can catch any of his SCTFs in the area. I also set a massive naval strike on 9 hexes. Some 300 2Es, 200 DBs and 100 TBs all in all. If he moves in with his SCTF it could get nasty for him.

Thrym
We reached the launch point! No losses so far. Jap losses are 3 subs the last turn. My sweeps ordered for Sorong didn´t take off. It doesn´t matter now. If he leaves the planes at Sorong they will get blasted during the naval bombardment. 5 BBs will bombard during the night. I ordered all sweeps to stand down to not interfere with the LRCAP. A Fletcher TF cleared the way last turn and Sorong is empty of enemy shipping. 3 TFs will unload during the night. See screenshot for details.
Of the 3 assault I think the Waigeo is most likely to instantly succeed. I have some 500 AV landing against only 4 units. Mostly tanks and a very experienced OZ Brigade. Sorong will fall eventually but I don´t think it will be quick. It doesn´t matter. I only need one base.
All in all I think some 2200 planes are concentrated in the Sorong area next turn. I´m hoping my CVs will be like strike sponges sucking in his strike leaving the assault shipping in peace. In a sense Erik has already lost this battle by allowing my assault shipping to get within range. Unless he can intervene with SCTFs during the night the troops are onshore and I have won this round.

Puh. I´m very, very nervous. I sent the turn to Erik who will upload the replay as soon as he can. Doubt I will get the turn tonight and if I do I won´t be able to do it until tomorrow.

KB
I´m fairly certain KB is still around the Marianas. Got some heave DL on the subs in the area. But nothing definitive. I wrote this to Erik
"If this doesn´t turn out to be the bloodiest day of the war so far I´ll be surprised. Big question is. Will we have a CV battle?!
He responded with:
Woohooo!!! Let em rip!!

Thats not very comforting! [:D] Good think I´m slightly drunk!

[JocMeister]

Kind of anticlimatic! Short update before bed.

Not a single airstrike against the Thrym forces. [X(] The Fletcher TF sent in to Timor took a major beating though and I most likely most of them (12 DD TF). They did take some Jap DDs with them though. They fought well but were sunk by air during the day. My LRCAP didn´t show up for some reason. [:(] Erik probably lost 2-3 DDs and will have to send 2BBs and a CA to fix minor damage.

I also manage to plant 2 TTs into a Jap BB at Tinian. KB is definitely spotted EAST! [X(] of the Marianas and completely out of the picture! Good news! [:)]

Sub attack near Tinian at 108,94

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
BB Mutsu
DD Kisaragi
DD Mutsuki

Allied Ships
SS Jack

My Sweep absolutely SMASHED Erik CAP at Rangoon. My first sweep took some damage.

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 152
Ki-84a Frank x 38

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 6 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

This is followed by sweep after sweep of this:

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 19 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 136
Ki-84a Frank x 36

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 7 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 49 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 68
Ki-84a Frank x 18

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 11 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

That is why you sweep, sweep and sweep. No LRCAP and crap. Sweep, sweep sweep.

Thrym
Here is the opposition faced at Sorong area:

This one won´t work. I took a chance there were only 2 BFs here.

Ground combat at Sansapor (83,107)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2623 troops, 16 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 155

Defending force 892 troops, 0 guns, 125 vehicles, Assault Value = 64

Assaulting units:
1st Mobile Brigade
31st Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
2nd USMC Tank Battalion

Ground combat at Sorong (82,107)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 9807 troops, 93 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 632

Defending force 22799 troops, 431 guns, 516 vehicles, Assault Value = 888

Japanese ground losses:
114 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
8th Garrison Unit
45th Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Amphibious Brigade
5th Garrison Unit
44th Naval Guard Unit
37th JAAF AF Bn
13th Air Fleet
3rd JNAF AF Unit
16th Garrison Unit /2

Defending units:
6th Infantry Division
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
25th Infantry Division
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
I US Corps

This one will work. While it might look like I will need to slug it out for a while I´m hopeful it will be quick work. I have a Corps and Command HQ fully prepped. All troops are also 100% prepped. I have almost 100 Shermans with me. Erik is again relying on small units that don´t have the staying power. Two powerful naval bombardments will go in next turn and if needed the CV fleet will add a massive blow.

Waigo didn´t even do a counter bombardment attack. Don´t know why? Is all the combat troops there disabled after this? Only 52nd Naval Guard Unit and 43rd Recon Regiment found here. I will capture the base next turn. Huzzah! [&o]

Pre-Invasion action off Waigeo (82,106)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

18 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Izard
DD Hazelwood
DD Haraden
DD Albert Grant
DD Evans
DD Callaghan
DD Bennion
LCI(G)-82
LCI(G)-81
LCI(G)-80
LCI(G)-79
LCI(G)-78
LCI(G)-77
LCI(G)-76
APA Knox
DD Knapp

Japanese ground losses:
537 casualties reported BOOM!
Squads: 0 destroyed, 48 disabled BOOM!
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Stay tuned for more! [8D]