Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Aftermath

Erik understandable wasn´t happy with the turn and needed some extra time so I won´t be getting the turn file today. All in all an allied win. But not a decisive one. Not yet. But looking at the replay I´m assuming my fast CVs have almost intact airgroups. Tomorrow we hunt cripples I think...

Looks like Eriks CV TFs went all over the map as usual. He wasn´t happy with that of course. It has happened every single time he has sent in the KB so he must have known it was a big risk. I think its part reaction and part full speed. My CVs also reacted but luckily only 1 hex and they all did it together. Puh!

Erik has reinforced Manado heavily and Sidate had some troops in it too. This will not be a quick grab. But with todays result I´m not sure its important anymore.

Ground combat at Manado (75,99)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 19718 troops, 158 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 702

Defending force 18159 troops, 494 guns, 329 vehicles, Assault Value = 757

Japanese ground losses:
75 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
78th Infantry Brigade
80th Infantry Brigade
2nd Ind.Infantry Brigade
109th Division Hmmm
37th Ind. Engineer Regiment
44th IMB Artillery Battalion
103rd AA Regiment
Gohoku JNAF Base Force
51st Base Force

Defending units:
93rd Infantry Division
40th Infantry Division
148th Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment

Ground combat at Sidate (75,100)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4790 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 188

Defending force 711 troops, 0 guns, 102 vehicles, Assault Value = 72

Assaulting units:
74th Infantry Regiment
56th Naval Guard Unit
3rd FF Const Unit

Defending units:
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion

Depending on the following 2-3 days I might actually be skipping this area and go straight for Mindanao. We'll see.

[paullus99]

That sucks for him - CVEs are expendable, but him losing CVs, even in the yards for a while, is a huge loss....

[ny59giants]

Any model of the A6 Zero are not going to do well at this point in the game. Their job is to the Judys and Jills through which they didn't do in sufficient numbers.

Many of KBs CV/CVL will need shipyard time to repair and he will need to probably go beyond Manila to be safe. Soerabaja is not safe for this now. Thus, transit time to repair shipyards plus repairs. KB will be MIA for some time. Get the APA/AKAs fired up and move forward asap.

Good turn for you. [&o] [&o]

[Speedysteve]

Wow. Congrats on the victory. Ironic though, as you say, since its a victory but IF all your planes had flown then bye bye all of KB. Congrats though. Being an Allied player we wait for these moments over years of hard work and planning![:)]

[Cpt Sherwood]

I hope you remembered to bring some replenishment CVEs loaded with replacement type air units. This is where they are so useful, add new aircraft to your CV air units and continue to attack.

[JocMeister]

Losses

My prediction of about 1000 Jap losses were pretty accurate. My losses were a bit heavier than I anticipated but nothing that can´t be replaced. I´m guessing this really hurt Erik though. I had almost 200 pilots KIA/MIA. Erik probably has around 7-800 pilots lost. Thats got to hurt.

None of my ships are in sinking condition and most only have SYS damage in the 20s. But the strike groups are pretty beat up. But so is Eriks. I think I will go hunting next turn. Foolish? Pushing my luck?

[JocMeister]

Thanks guys! [&o]

While I´m slightly disappointed I couldn´t inflict a mortal wound on the KB sending many of them to the yards is almost as good. By the time many of them returns the allied war machine will be unstoppable!

Cpt, Sherwood
I decided to forgo that ability for now. While its nice to be able to draw instant replacements I would have to dedicate too many CVEs for that to be meaningful. Afterall the CV fleet is now numbering somewhere around 1800 planes. In a month it will be 2200. [:)]

Michael,
I made a very mature decision today. More on that in the next post. But the APA/AKAs will start loading very shortly. I assure you! [:)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Losses

My prediction of about 1000 Jap losses were pretty accurate. My losses were a bit heavier than I anticipated but nothing that can´t be replaced. I´m guessing this really hurt Erik though. I had almost 200 pilots KIA/MIA. Erik probably has around 7-800 pilots lost. Thats got to hurt.

None of my ships are in sinking condition and most only have SYS damage in the 20s. But the strike groups are pretty beat up. But so is Eriks. I think I will go hunting next turn. Foolish? Pushing my luck?

His LBA was a no-show in that battle. He may unleash them today if he has any operational airfields in range or your amphib TFs and CVs.
A lot or your success in the battle was because his strikes were split among many targets. If you chase him and your CVs become the sole target, you must be confident you can handle both LBA and weak KB strikes.
Chasing cripples will likely get some that might otherwise survive, but you may lose a few ships too. So which is more important - for you to have all those ships available for the next six months or so [while his are repairing] or final elimination of ships that may be toothless when they return in six months.

That's the logical treatment, but my gut tells me I would go for the gusto - no guts, no glory!
Whatever you decide, good luck!

PS - I think you have been too conservative on the likely losses he has suffered. IJA damage control is not good when any two of flooding/heavy fires/high system damage are present.

[JocMeister]

Aftermath - The day of no hunting. 4th of August 1944

I even had the attack set up. Spent over an hour doing so even. But I cancelled at the last minute...

I think it was the right thing to do. Why should I risk anything now? I have already gained what I wanted. The troops are onshore at Manado. And most importantly the way to Mindanao is now open! I have to think big. Not small. Sinking a CV or two already destined for a year in the yard is small. Landing on Mindanao is big. Think big. Chasing the KB is pointless. KB is irrelevant at this stage. It has been for the last 6 months and it will be even more irrelevant in year or so when his damaged ships are again ready for action. Think big.

The Plan
I had two SCTFs at Manado that will race into the Celebes sea at full speed hopefully catching any of the cripples left from the CVL TF. All other TFs are too far away for me to catch anyway. Erik did have two BBs in the lot. But against Fletchers and Clevelands at night I should prevail if they are still in the area.

The rest of the fleet retires to Morotai. Replenishes fuel, ammo and planes. Then we wait for the assault troops to arrive. I have a lot more than Erik can handle almost 100% prepped for Mindanao. I will also strike at some peripheral targets. If I do this right I can secure the PI before New Years! [X(]

This was perhaps not the most exciting choice but it is the right one. I´m 100% sure of that. Think big.

Allied losses
Only one CVE lost, the Marcus Island. The rest should make it barring subs. But I did suffer. Many of the CVEs are unable to conduct flight ops and almost all the CVEs are out of Torps. After sending the damaged ships on their way home I´m actually down to only 800 operational CV planes. While my CAP is still 90% intact my strike and escort capabilities are perhaps down to 30%. This was a big part in my decision to withdraw. Most are only SYS damage though and can be repaired in theatre. But about 1/4th of the total Allied CV power will be gone for about a month. Reinforcements are on its way though.

Japanese losses
CVL Ryujo - Confirmed sunk
CV Kaga (3 TTs) - Listed on the sunk screen
BB Yamato (4TTs) - Listed on the sunk screen
CV Akagi (2 TTs) - On Fire - Will likely survive.
CVL Zuiho (12 Bombs - Heavy fire, heavy damage - Likely sunk
CVL Shoho - (4 bombs) Heavy fire, heavy damage - Likely in sinking condition
CV Junyo - (8 bombs) Heavy fire, heavy damage - Likely in sinking condition
CV Hiyo - (1 Bomb 2 TTs) on fire, heavy damage - Probably sink?

Even if they all make it thats 300 planes less in the KB for quite some time. Thats about 1/3rd of the total strength.

Manado
I looked up the division there (109th ID). Its a crap one coming online with 35 EXP. I´ll try a deliberate attack in a day or two and see what happens.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

His LBA was a no-show in that battle. He may unleash them today if he has any operational airfields in range or your amphib TFs and CVs.
A lot or your success in the battle was because his strikes were split among many targets. If you chase him and your CVs become the sole target, you must be confident you can handle both LBA and weak KB strikes.
Chasing cripples will likely get some that might otherwise survive, but you may lose a few ships too. So which is more important - for you to have all those ships available for the next six months or so [while his are repairing] or final elimination of ships that may be toothless when they return in six months.

That's the logical treatment, but my gut tells me I would go for the gusto - no guts, no glory!
Whatever you decide, good luck!

PS - I think you have been too conservative on the likely losses he has suffered. IJA damage control is not good when any two of flooding/heavy fires/high system damage are present.
[/quote]

As seen in the update I wrote when you answered I decided to withdraw. Perhaps not very sexy! [:D] Ultimately it did come down to exactly what you wrote, I need an intact CV fleet more than I need to sink a few cripples. My guts told me to play safe this time and I decided to listen. Mindanao here I come! [&o]

[JocMeister]

Updated naval losses

[JocMeister]

Intelligence screen

I´m starting to close on VPs. Slowly but surely. I´ll try to find one from late 43 for comparison later.

Airwar
I´m still very proud over my air war. Almost ahead by 10.000 planes now. As the IJAAF and IJN is in decline the USN and USAAF is getting stronger and stronger. This I hope will lead to me surpassing the 10.000 mark pretty soon.

[bigred]

He also tried to move over the river to Bessain. Only Thai troops though. Guess the withdraw the next turn? He failed pretty badly. I don´t care about Bessain and never have. Its to exposed and all I have there is small Chinese Corps, some BFs and 2 Recon planes.

Good thing about Bassin is it is next to rangoon and cannot be bombarded by the jap IJN. So the AF is safer than Rangoon or Pegu. Good place to put torpedo bombers.

[ny59giants]

While the number of CV/CVL/CVEs sunk are relatively even at this point, the number of CAs for Japan is bad as they are more precious than BBs IMO. He is going to have a shortage of DDs from now on and that will hurt.

I know that you have lost lots of subs, but I would still put them out there. I use mine in Patrol Zones almost all the time. An arc from south of Tokyo over to China would be a place I would go. You would need at least 30 subs plus another 15 to rotate in and out. Production for you now is close to 10 per month.

EDIT - Since you have Eniwetok now, I would place an AS, AR, and 3000 capacity ARD here.

[JocMeister]

5th August -44

Very little action. I've spent about 3 hours trying to get everything organized again. Its a mess with some Squadrons fragmented into 4-5 pieces all on different bases. CVs have taken replenishment AC and pools are looking very good even after that. I have 300 Hellcats, 400 TBs and 180 DBs. And that just the latest models. I´ll push now and not take too much time reorganizing. As soon as the assault shipping returns with the troops in about 8-12 days depending on loading time I will go.

Operation Thrym
The first attack as Sidini went vert well. Lack of AT and poor troops quality really shows in this attack:

Ground combat at Sidate (75,100)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 731 troops, 0 guns, 102 vehicles, Assault Value = 73

Defending force 5058 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 188

Allied adjusted assault: 58

Japanese adjusted defense: 112 Very low adjusted AV here already.

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
449 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 41 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd USMC Amphb Tank Battalion

Defending units:
74th Infantry Regiment
56th Naval Guard Unit
3rd FF Const Unit

I´ll rest a day and then try again. Looking promising. [:)] Big day tomorrow. Ordered the first attack of Talud-Eilanden and Manado. Fingers crossed. I have no more troops for Manado but another division ready for Talud. Its moving up from Wewak right now.

Celebes sea
All the CV TFs just disappeared. My DDs just found a MTB TF probably sent in to block me. Smart move. I still feel I did the right thing by not pursuing. Either all his severely damaged ships sunk or they weren't as damaged I would have been able to catch them anyway. Something sunk at least. See screenshot.

Burma
I´m starting to put pressure on here again. He has stopped repairing AFs in Burma. Must be getting really low on supply. Both Rangoon and Prome is listed with 100% runway damage.

OZ/DEI
This is temporarily on hold. Once (if) I manage to get on Mindanao this will be priority.

Allied CV Fleet
Replenishing airgroups right now. I´ve taken a small chance parking my CVs in plain view at Morotai. But CAP is strong with 200 P47s and Erik will need to replenish airgroups before thinking about doing something here. Pools are as I said in great shape but TB pilots are becoming scarce. Once planes are repaired I´ll be able to field 1200 CV planes again. This should be enough for anything Erik can bring. I have another 3 CVs and 12 CVEs steaming for the area but it will be some time. Within 30 days I´m also getting another 2 CVs and Yggdrasil will come out of the yard. The damaged CVEs will be mostly repaired on site and should be back in action in 1-2 months. 3 or 4 will have to go to Sydney for repairs.

Sunk ships
Something sank this turn. Certainly not the Akagi though. Only gained 190 VPs this turn. So probably one of the CVLs? Tracker on the other hand reports a completely different set of ships sunk including Akagi. But she is a sturdy ship that has eaten dual torpedoes twice before and managed to survive. I´m 98% she won´t sink.

[Lokasenna]

Been lurking here off and on for a while; it's great fun to see the Allies in '44 and see these battles. Nice job on the Celebes Sea action. If I were your opponent I would be a little disappointed, but it is what it is in '44.

For the 190 VPs, I believe that corresponds to either Zuiho or Shoho (they're worth the same IIRC as they are both Zuiho-class). I think you can safely assume that one of them is sunk.

I also think you're right about holding off and going to Mindanao. I'm excited to see it unfold.

[JocMeister]

Hey Lokasenna! [:)]

Yeah, I think Erik was a little bit more than disappointed. But he is a fantastic opponent and doesn´t whine even a tenth as much as I do! [:D] But I honestly think he should be quite happy with the outcome. Could have ended a lot worse for him. I think there were ever very little chance for him to pull off a successful CV vs CV encounter at this point. Numbers speak for themselves and he was almost outnumbered two to one. And Hellcats do beat Zeroes. [:)]

Thanks for the info on Zuihos! One less CVL! [&o]

[BBfanboy]

I believe the small number of ground loss planes is because they were damaged and could not get off the carrier, whereas the ones that were not damaged flew to land bases when the carrier was hit. Mindanao could have some carrier aircraft on it.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

While the number of CV/CVL/CVEs sunk are relatively even at this point, the number of CAs for Japan is bad as they are more precious than BBs IMO. He is going to have a shortage of DDs from now on and that will hurt.

I know that you have lost lots of subs, but I would still put them out there. I use mine in Patrol Zones almost all the time. An arc from south of Tokyo over to China would be a place I would go. You would need at least 30 subs plus another 15 to rotate in and out. Production for you now is close to 10 per month.

EDIT - Since you have Eniwetok now, I would place an AS, AR, and 3000 capacity ARD here.

Yeah, Erik has been quite upset with the DD losses. While he has almost all BBs still intact (2 might be sunk) they are just too slow to be very useful.

I don´t know about the subs. I just pulled them out from around the PI after losing about two per week. Needless to say all I sunk in return was possible an AK. Right now I have only 33 operational subs! [:(] The rest are either in the yards on their way to the yard. ASW airpower together with the super Es just makes it impossible for me to deploy them in any meaningful way. He just needs to place 4-8 bombers with ASW crew and every single sub within range gets slammed with a 10/10 DL. Every single one. [:(]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I believe the small number of ground loss planes is because they were damaged and could not get off the carrier, whereas the ones that were not damaged flew to land bases when the carrier was hit. Mindanao could have some carrier aircraft on it.

Yeah, I figured as much. Same thing happened to me. I now have small fragments of squadrons spread throughout the bases in northern Borneo.