The Trauma of '42: Crackaces (Allies) vs. njp72 (IJ)

[Crackaces]

I have not experienced results like below in previous stocks games .. so I ask the question of the group if the DBB alters the IJ pilot pool to not only have super-honcho naval capabilities but highly skilled ground capabilities .. 22 nells have taken out half their number every turn without fail ... granted open terrain on Dacca but I did not know the IJ were that powerful in the ground attack also ...

Morning Air attack on 16th Light Cavalry Regiment, at 56,38 (Dacca)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 3 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 22
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 12 (11 destroyed, 1 disabled)

In other news Poona fell and Darwin fell all in the same turn #113.
.. hopefully I can keep Bombay as a strong hold otherwise the IJ will have Betty's here and it will be very very tough to mount some sort of come back ..

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


I have not experienced results like below in previous stocks games .. so I ask the question of the group if the DBB alters the IJ pilot pool to not only have super-honcho naval capabilities but highly skilled ground capabilities .. 22 nells have taken out half their number every turn without fail ... granted open terrain on Dacca but I did not know the IJ were that powerful in the ground attack also ...

No, not at all to my knowledge. But by this time in the game some groups of decent pilots might have become very highly skilled in ground attack. Plus the other factors, as you say, in the open and so on. Units with good organic flak or flak coverage do better, I'm guessing these units don't have much of that? Also AFAIK flak units are the same as other units in that they fight better with higher morale and worse with lower morale. All the flak units in and arriving for India seem to start with horrible morale.

[Crackaces]

Ok thanks for the very quick response. IN my prior experience with the game I just do not remember such devastating results from 2E's. Some disruption a few disabled .. but this unit has been destroyed in 5 days...Your thought on ground attack skill reinforces my thoughts of a propensity for the algorithm to favor skill over substance .. 20 4E's with not very skilled pilots kill one squad ..

Ok I shall not complain and take my punishment for 6 more months .... [8D]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Crackaces


I have not experienced results like below in previous stocks games .. so I ask the question of the group if the DBB alters the IJ pilot pool to not only have super-honcho naval capabilities but highly skilled ground capabilities .. 22 nells have taken out half their number every turn without fail ... granted open terrain on Dacca but I did not know the IJ were that powerful in the ground attack also ...

No, not at all to my knowledge. But by this time in the game some groups of decent pilots might have become very highly skilled in ground attack. Plus the other factors, as you say, in the open and so on. Units with good organic flak or flak coverage do better, I'm guessing these units don't have much of that? Also AFAIK flak units are the same as other units in that they fight better with higher morale and worse with lower morale. All the flak units in and arriving for India seem to start with horrible morale.

[witpqs]

I still harbor the strong suspicion that the algorithms that use pilot skill give too much credit to very high skills for most things, and should have some greater diminishing returns factored in. I say this with zero direct knowledge of the formulae and code, only lots of anecdotal experience with the results in various situations, hence the qualifier "strong suspicion" tacked onto my opinion.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I still harbor the strong suspicion that the algorithms that use pilot skill give too much credit to very high skills for most things, and should have some greater diminishing returns factored in. I say this with zero direct knowledge of the formulae and code, only lots of anecdotal experience with the results in various situations, hence the qualifier "strong suspicion" tacked onto my opinion.

I am with you and something seems to have changed ... I am thinking the AFB strategy has to change .. at least this AFB ...

[witpqs]

I thought this way back with AE. I have not noticed it getting worse or anything. What is it that you think has changed in this regard?

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I thought this way back with AE. I have not noticed it getting worse or anything. What is it that you think has changed in this regard?

Ground bombing effectiveness .. it could be that I am fighting in open terrain and no way to defend .. but I am experiencing way more effective IJN planes completely destroying armored units in 5 sorties ....we are at turn #113

[witpqs]

I'm very confident that there is no code favoring them. What comment does your opponent have about the results?

[zuluhour]

There is always the omnipresent die rolls to consider. I once rolled six box cars in a row at an ASL tourney. Five main guns and a co-ax down on turn 1.[:@]Pardon the pun, but keep rolling with punches here. I'm frustrated I can't get any more than a dozen casualties from B17s at 6ooo'.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

There is always the omnipresent die rolls to consider. I once rolled six box cars in a row at an ASL tourney. Five main guns and a co-ax down on turn 1.[:@]Pardon the pun, but keep rolling with punches here. I'm frustrated I can't get any more than a dozen casualties from B17s at 6ooo'.

That is exactly the behavior I'm seeing. 20 B-17's 8 * 500 pound bombs each average exp 60~ ave skill 65~ kill 20 - 40 ...20 Nells Exp ?? Skill ?? but they are killing 100 - 200 / 20 - 30 vehicles each run ... devastating ... Thus I am thinking the game somehow changed the how skill/experience is factored into the results .. but what do I know?!? [:(]

On an off-topic note .. I hosted for 2 years a Fortress Europa / ASL tournament each combat point represented 1K ASL points. The rare units like the Tiger unit and the "Duck" units represented automatic 1.6 rarity. It was a blast because unlike the scenario where there is no tomorrow .. the morale rules encouraged players to start retreating once the 20% rule kicked in .. [for non elite units 20% casualties added +1 to morale checks] very few fight to the death situations and many running battles with defense in depth ...

[zuluhour]

I've had more time to review my "heavy" raids and I must say I've killed more personnel attacking bases than when specifically targeting ground troops. It's still very early, July '42, however I have ceased all 4E raids against ground troops for now. I may have a chance to try again in desert terrain soon and will report back should that alter my views any. I did notice last time around that the groups needed to fly half a dozen missions before they began to score at all. Could be dice rolls.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I've had more time to review my "heavy" raids and I must say I've killed more personnel attacking bases than when specifically targeting ground troops. It's still very early, July '42, however I have ceased all 4E raids against ground troops for now. I may have a chance to try again in desert terrain soon and will report back should that alter my views any. I did notice last time around that the groups needed to fly half a dozen missions before they began to score at all. Could be dice rolls.

To me there are 3 reasons I hit ground forces with air.

1. attrition disabled and destroyed squads, vehicles, and devices
2. send units into combat mode slowing movement
3. disruption

Here is an example attack:

Morning Air attack on 5th Tank Regiment, at 43,22 (Indore)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 6
B-17E Fortress x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 33 (2 destroyed, 31 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-17D Fortress bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
6 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

IJ Armored units are trying to flee Indore to make mischief elsewhere. I smack this unit to slow its movement while other forces are reacting to the IJ's moves. In the process they lose 33 vehicles ...

So in my view it is not always #1 (Attrition) my highest priority. #3 can be critical sometimes when the firepower and AV are close before an attack. I might not get big attrition results from the bombing but some disruption I cannot see on the air attack CR but I note on the ground combat CR with a disruption (-) .... [8D]

I will update this AAR later .. the IJ are doing quite well these days and I might be beat ....

[Crackaces]

The strategic map below shows where this game is at on Turn 152. Things have slowed down as nlp72 has obligations at work and I am completing my dissertation. The turn is in the IJ's inbox.

I believe the IJ have taken a very imaginative approach by postponing Singapore and Manila, and attacking India and Oz. However, I believe the constraints of the IJ OOB and how supply propagates in this game has bogged down the IJ's advance in India. Also, the delay in seizing Singapore and Manila has led to fort building, which with urban terrain make these two places a real grind to take. Right now Bombay is also built up and a single IJ division keeps these forces pinned. There are also IJ forces at Colombo pinned. I think I have enough forces in place to stave off losing India and eventually retaking lost ground.

Meanwhile the Allies build airbases in Oz for the eventually offense there. I am building up Tabitituea in the Pacific otherwise it is quiet ... [;)]

We shall see if this game proceeds.

[obvert]

So with Manila are you able to maintain fighting ability while building frets with the limited supply available there? Curious as I've only played Allies vs AI and the AI bombards every turn, killing supply off by late march or april at the least.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: obvert

So with Manila are you able to maintain fighting ability while building frets with the limited supply available there? Curious as I've only played Allies vs AI and the AI bombards every turn, killing supply off by late march or april at the least.

So far yes because the IJ have not forced the issue here. I would assume that 3 or 4 IJ direct attacks would exhaust the supplies here, but those attacks would be made at decreased firepower and adjusted AV. Then the attacks with my supplies cut short would be adjusted by the fort levels until the forts are reduced. Giving the Allies time.

The game does not represent a reality. I am not sure if the algorithm is sequential but a long time ago Alfred posted the effects of supply and forts. So if it is sequential and linear no supplies (.25) * level 4 fort 1.75 equates to .43 adjustment to AV and firepower ..right now Manila is well supplied .. still producing supplies and has level 4 forts. At least the initial assaults requires engineers and firepower to reduce the forts or I contend a more expensive in terms of blood and time proposition to capture

There is another factor at play here .. most of the IJ army is in India/Ceylon right now .. enough forces and engineers to strike Manila will take time to transfer and get to Manila ... I would say this bastion can hold out a couple of months but we shall see ... Plus Singers has upgraded forts now ... that place can hold out a month maybe two ..

I am waiting for the IJ to have to make the decision to pull forces out to capture Manila and Singer's .. then the India front will get hot .. until then I defend a front and harass the IJ supply lines ..

I believe this is why the Mersing attack on December 7th using the KB and IJ forces is an interesting strategy. No time to build forts and thus it falls more quickly releasing LCU's to make mischief elsewhere ...